Player Discussion Peter Cehlarik - II

[Bumper]

on-fire outlier alert! I took a few hours to run my numbers today. this thread seemed like the place to share what nobody asked for.

MAR 80 / BER 88 / PAS 77
CEH 134 / KRE 77 / DeB 67
HEI 81 / FRE 71 / BAC 66
NOR 68 / KUR 84 / WAG 76
CHA 78 / McA 86
KRU 70 / CAR 83
MOO 72 / MIL 90
RAS 90
HAL 89

FOR 78
(CAV 72)
BJO 70
ACC 56
DON 44
SMI -28

CLI 89
GRZ 87
ZBO 76
LAU 71
KAM 56
VAA 16

these overall ratings are always guaranteed to annoy everybody and statistical first impressions are outliers often, but Cehlarik fans: I see you.

 

[Mainehockey33]

on-fire outlier alert! I took a few hours to run my numbers today. this thread seemed like the place to share what nobody asked for.

MAR 80 / BER 88 / PAS 77
CEH 134 / KRE 77 / DeB 67
HEI 81 / FRE 71 / BAC 66
NOR 68 / KUR 84 / WAG 76
CHA 78 / McA 86
KRU 70 / CAR 83
MOO 72 / MIL 90
RAS 90
HAL 89

FOR 78
(CAV 72)
BJO 70
ACC 56
DON 44
SMI -28

CLI 89
GRZ 87
ZBO 76
LAU 71
KAM 56
VAA 16

these overall ratings are always guaranteed to annoy everybody and statistical first impressions are outliers often, but Cehlarik fans: I see you.

Some of these ratings look like they were derived from a random number generator.

 

[Rubber Biscuit]

Some of these ratings look like they were derived from a random number generator.

You mean you don't think Wagner's been just about as good as Pastrnak?

 

[Mainehockey33]

You mean you don't think Wagner's been just about as good as Pastrnak?

I want to know why Smith is a -28 and Cehlarik is a 134. lol

 

[Bumper]

because small sample sizes make peaks and valleys tough to spot. Smith came out and fell on his face, Frederic came out sheltered and was fine, Cehlarik made the most of his brief chances and had a very positive outcome in an extremely efficient manor. newcomers as outliers should not be surprising. the surprise would be if the team treated a positive outlier in the same way as an obvious scrub having a rough debut. Gemel Smith this guy is not. my point is that he is on fire. obviously he'll chill, but people will be offended if I calculate a better number for him than the hot goal scorer that reps a ridiculous minus. these numbers do not reflect a career, just the current season to the point, handing out no sympathy points for injuries nor mismanagement. they show effectiveness. production defined beyond points totals. relative output. Cehlarik is offering a lot in this moment.

 

[Blowfish]

on-fire outlier alert! I took a few hours to run my numbers today. this thread seemed like the place to share what nobody asked for.

MAR 80 / BER 88 / PAS 77
CEH 134 / KRE 77 / DeB 67
HEI 81 / FRE 71 / BAC 66
NOR 68 / KUR 84 / WAG 76
CHA 78 / McA 86
KRU 70 / CAR 83
MOO 72 / MIL 90
RAS 90
HAL 89

FOR 78
(CAV 72)
BJO 70
ACC 56
DON 44
SMI -28

CLI 89
GRZ 87
ZBO 76
LAU 71
KAM 56
VAA 16

these overall ratings are always guaranteed to annoy everybody and statistical first impressions are outliers often, but Cehlarik fans: I see you.

So is this good or bad for Cehlarik Binky fans? Not sure I understand "anything" from those numbers lol.

 

[Bumper]

I think it confirms what his fans have stated -- he deserves the chances to play. he is facing average competition -- he is not being sheltered like other newbies. he has been extremely effective, so he should stick. please note that the active roster of dressing players no longer includes any guys with failing grades -- the team seems to cut the same dudes my numbers suggest being rid of... every year. it took a while for Donato to shake loose. his lazy hockey has no place on this team and is a relief to see him down and Cehly up.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Some of these ratings look like they were derived from a random number generator.

I f***ing love Heinen, but on what planet is he rated better than Marchand or Pasta (and neither is a small sample size).

 

[GloryDaze4877]

I think it confirms what his fans have stated -- he deserves the chances to play. he is facing average competition -- he is not being sheltered like other newbies. he has been extremely effective, so he should stick. please note that the active roster of dressing players no longer includes any guys with failing grades -- the team seems to cut the same dudes my numbers suggest being rid of... every year. it took a while for Donato to shake loose. his lazy hockey has no place on this team and is a relief to see him down and Cehly up.

I think the only thing those numbers confirm is that your system is highly inaccurate.

 

[Mainehockey33]

I ****ing love Heinen, but on what planet is he rated better than Marchand or Pasta (and neither is a small sample size).

Let’s be honest, you would have rated Heinen at least 150.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Let’s be honest, you would have rated Heinen at least 150.

I like the way Heinen plays the game, but I know where he stands...and it’s not anywhere near 63 or 88.

 

[Bumper]

on the planet where he has been more effective. he lost a bit that they gained via quality of competition, but he has been very effective in goal prevention even though his offense was taken behind the barn and executed last year. Marchand has been off his game this season. surely you have noticed that. these measure not core skill, age, injury status, future value -- they are in-season production. you can get as mad as you want -- none of these are numbers I assigned via bias nor opinion. (you can adjust them as needed to add such leanings.) the calculations just are. they have been alerting me all season to Donato's struggles and Acciari's failing play. I don't need other fans to see the value here -- the team confirms it for me every year, Spooner, Caron, Smith... I'll go as far as claiming that Savard's time with the team was going to be limited regardless of injury as he had played his way into the doghouse that failing ratings alert me to. I suspect he was to be moved based on seeing how this has worked consistently since then. really, I don't need believers for anything, but Cehlarik fans have a reliable-advanced-stats geek thinking "yes -- this guy" with them.

 

[Mainehockey33]

I like the way Heinen plays the game, but I know where he stands...and it’s not anywhere near 63 or 88.

I know, just kidding....

This system needs context. How do you get the numbers and what’s the scale.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

on the planet where he has been more effective. he lost a bit that they gained via quality of competition, but he has been very effective in goal prevention even though his offense was taken behind the barn and executed last year. Marchand has been off his game this season. surely you have noticed that. these measure not core skill, age, injury status, future value -- they are in-season production. you can get as mad as you want -- none of these are numbers I assigned via bias nor opinion. (you can adjust them as needed to add such leanings.) the calculations just are. they have been alerting me all season to Donato's struggles and Acciari's failing play. I don't need other fans to see the value here -- the team confirms it for me every year, Spooner, Caron, Smith... I'll go as far as claiming that Savard's time with the team was going to be limited regardless of injury as he had played his way into the doghouse that failing ratings alert me to. I suspect he was to be moved based on seeing how this has worked consistently since then. really, I don't need believers for anything, but Cehlarik fans have a reliable-advanced-stats geek thinking "yes -- this guy" with them.

Heinen has been good defensively IMO, and the lines he’s been placed on have good advanced stats. That said, Marchand and Pasta face tougher competition than Heinen does every game. While their D game this year has suffered a bit, there is not an accurate rating system anywhere that should have them below Heinen when the offensive component and quality of competition are factored in.

As far as Cehlarik goes, imo he has been above average in a very small sample size. I don’t need your “system” to tell me that.

 

[Mainehockey33]

Why have the scale go above 100 and below 0?

 

[Bumper]

I could put walls there. in fact, the real impetus for this project had a 25 floor and sort of a 100 ceiling. so I could cut it off at those extremes, but I think seeing the negative number helps be sure a guy has no role and those 130-somethings sure are fun to see pop up and settle lower. Clifton would probably still be dropping if still playing, but I really enjoy noticing how hot some starts can be. Cehly is crazy hot right now. I think seeing his silly number is fun.

 

[NDiesel]

on the planet where he has been more effective. he lost a bit that they gained via quality of competition, but he has been very effective in goal prevention even though his offense was taken behind the barn and executed last year. Marchand has been off his game this season. surely you have noticed that. these measure not core skill, age, injury status, future value -- they are in-season production. you can get as mad as you want -- none of these are numbers I assigned via bias nor opinion. (you can adjust them as needed to add such leanings.) the calculations just are. they have been alerting me all season to Donato's struggles and Acciari's failing play. I don't need other fans to see the value here -- the team confirms it for me every year, Spooner, Caron, Smith... I'll go as far as claiming that Savard's time with the team was going to be limited regardless of injury as he had played his way into the doghouse that failing ratings alert me to. I suspect he was to be moved based on seeing how this has worked consistently since then. really, I don't need believers for anything, but Cehlarik fans have a reliable-advanced-stats geek thinking "yes -- this guy" with them.

I'm curious as what these numbers take into account and what the ratings generally mean. If it's a bit too far off topic a PM would be fine with me.

 

[Ratty]

Game winner by Peter. Starting to solidify his position on the team.

 

[BruinsBtn]

He's playing better than Debrusk right now. Although I give Jake points for playing on the off-wing.

 

[Dr Hook]

Peter looks like an NHL player out there- he belongs. I agree with @BruinsBtn above that he is playing better than JDB. Cehlarik can play his off wing well, so maybe they should try swapping them and see if that gets Jake going. PC the 2nd is not the main answer to the secondary scoring problem, but he looks like he could be part of the solution.

 

[BruinsNetwork]

Delete.

 

[rocketdan9]

Game winner by Peter. Starting to solidify his position on the team.

I have been semi impressed...

But he does have 4 pts in 7 games now

Doesnt hurt you on the defensive end either

Has been sacrificing the body to make passes mid ice

Lets see what happens next game pattern

 

[elMatador]

I think Cehlarik is as good as gone after the trade deadline. Also this is his contract year. Cassidy has him on a very short leash. Got benched for a shift after the turnover. Good for him he redeemed himself with a goal.
Long term I don't see Cassidy & Cehlarik as a working relationship. Cassidy is no fan of his skating and urgency. Cehlarik in return points to Cassidy as the one keeping him stuck in Providence most of the last season and the first half of this season.

 

[Bodit9]

Really like Cehlarik's game. Dogs the puck in the o-zone, causes turnovers, goes to the net, great vision. As many have noted, his skating isn't great but he makes up for it with great hockey IQ and vision. Don't think he's the answer this year for the 2nd line, but with improved skating, could see him as a top 6 fixture.

 

[Blowfish]

Really like Cehlarik's game. Dogs the puck in the o-zone, causes turnovers, goes to the net, great vision. As many have noted, his skating isn't great but he makes up for it with great hockey IQ and vision. Don't think he's the answer this year for the 2nd line, but with improved skating, could see him as a top 6 fixture.

The only concern I have with Cehlarik's game so far is his straight line speed (although he flashed a great rush last night). He actually has a good first step and quick in tight spaces. His positioning and active stick are pretty darn good. Looking good so far. I still would like to see a Heinen on the line with Krejci and Cehlarik. The high IQ line. Debrusk brings some speed and hustle however I think Heinen can do a little of that as well.