I don't think Murray's ever had swagger, but I agree his confidence is shot. Murray, when he first broke into the league, was completely unflappable. Dude could give up a 2013-era Fleury type goal, an absolute lowlight reel laugher, and go on to shut the other team out for the rest of the game. He never really wavered, whether he'd just given up a terrible goal or whether he was 55 minutes into a 40-save shutout.
Maybe he was just playing at an unreasonably high level, and maybe that just coincided with our two Cup runs, but he hasn't looked like that goalie for years now. Like you said, injuries and serious off-ice misfortune have probably done a number on the guy's ability to stay focused and engaged.
You always wonder if a younger guy with potential will end up being a stud somewhere else, after a change of scenery, but I think that's probably what you'll see with Murray. Dude's constantly dealing with the MAF cult everywhere, from social media to journalists, etc. He's got Jarry breathing down his neck and, as of most of this season, pretty much taking his job. I think trading Murray at the draft is probably the best situation for all parties involved.