Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: Ploff time

[SEALBound]

Kapanen and Rodrigues do not go to the net. In fact, that's why Rodrigues can't score anymore. The majority of his goals have been scored from the slot or the dots. Teams figured that out, and since he won't go to the net, he's not scoring. Most of Kapanen's goals are mapped away from the net, too.

The only guys who aggressively go to the net are Guentzel, Rakell and Zucker. Crosby and Rust make a lot of plays near the net, but they more often go to the side of the cage or behind the net. Malkin goes in occasionally when he's feeling his game.

Carter, McGinn and Blueger could stand to go to the net as screens and deflectors more often.

Kapanen has been willing in the past but not so much now which is why I labeled him willing.

ERod has and still does. I'll defend him on that front. Watch for it in tonights game.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Kapanen has been willing in the past but not so much now which is why I labeled him willing.

ERod has and still does. I'll defend him on that front. Watch for it in tonights game.

Data and heat maps say otherwise.

This is where Rodrigues scored his goals this year:

This is Kapanen:

This is Guentzel:

Guentzel obviously has more goals this year, so there will be more bunching, but it is plainly clear how often he scores closer to the net.

Look at Rodrigues. The vast majority of his goals are in the slots or further back.

That's not going to the net.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

This discussion is more for the off-day thread, but yes, Kapanen and ERod need to crash the net starting tonight.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

ERod can go to the net all he wants... he's still gonna get nerd-tossed even if he can fight through traffic to get there.

 

[Gurglesons]

Data and heat maps say otherwise.

This is where Rodrigues scored his goals this year:

This is Kapanen:

This is Guentzel:

Guentzel obviously has more goals this year, so there will be more bunching, but it is plainly clear how often he scores closer to the net.

Look at Rodrigues. The vast majority of his goals are in the slots or further back.

That's not going to the net.

I was so confused by the redline goal and then was like oh yeah Empty Netter.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I was so confused by the redline goal and then was like oh yeah Empty Netter.

Or versus Detroit.

 

[SEALBound]

Data and heat maps say otherwise.

This is where Rodrigues scored his goals this year:

This is Kapanen:

This is Guentzel:

Guentzel obviously has more goals this year, so there will be more bunching, but it is plainly clear how often he scores closer to the net.

Look at Rodrigues. The vast majority of his goals are in the slots or further back.

That's not going to the net.

Not every "go to the net" results in a goal.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Not every "go to the net" results in a goal.

Evan Rodrigues shots:

Jake Guentzel shots:

Why does the guy who has less skill but loves to shoot have substantially fewer shots below the dots?

 

[jmelm]

Most of Kapanen's goals are mapped away from the net, too.

Wait…Kapanen has scored a goal before? I have no recollection of this.

 

[jmelm]

Has DOC been called up yet??

 

[Pens x]

Has DOC been called up yet??

Come on now.

 

[jmelm]

Come on now.

So what you’re saying is you love Kapanen and want him to stay in?

 

[Pens x]

So what you’re saying is you love Kapanen and want him to stay in?

Haha no I’m saying our coach is a jackass. Erod and Kap do nothing for me.

 

[jmelm]

Haha no I’m saying our coach is a jackass. Erod and Kap do nothing for me.

Well there will be a bunch of guys called up to be black aces and I don’t think Kapanen would have played last night if they had another healthy F on their roster. So we can only hope….

 

[Pens x]

Well there will be a bunch of guys called up to be black aces and I don’t think Kapanen would have played last night if they had another healthy F on their roster. So we can only hope….

Sure, black aces will be available but Sully and Hextall hate playing AHL guys.

 

[jmelm]

Guentzel—Crosby—Rust/Rakell
Heinen—Malkin—Rakell/Rust
DOC—Carter—McGinn
Boyle—Blueger—ERod

 

[Pittsburgh1776]

Kapanen should not be in the lineup over DOC

 

[ChaosAgent]

Evan Rodrigues shots:

Jake Guentzel shots:

Why does the guy who has less skill but loves to shoot have substantially fewer shots below the dots?

His line doesn't have the ability to get him the puck there? Say what you will about ERod but I highly doubt he is not shooting or getting tips closer to the net cause of desire. It is his (and his lines) lack of ability.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

His line doesn't have the ability to get him the puck there? Say what you will about ERod but I highly doubt he is not shooting or getting tips closer to the net cause of desire. It is his (and his lines) lack of ability.

His most common linemates are Kapanen, Crosby, Guentzel, Carter, Heinen, McGinn and Zucker.

This isn't on his linemates. It's a pattern throughout his career.

According to IcyData, 57% of Rodrigues' career shots come from the points or circles and it jumps to 71% if you include the high slot.

Guentzel, by comparison, has just 26% of his career shots from the points or circles (38% including the high slot). That means 62% of his shots come in the low slot or in the crease.

Bryan Rust, by the way, has a similar pattern to Guentzel. It's not a coincidence that two smaller, skilled wingers have had their stats explode. Yes, they have talent and they've meshed with two Hall of Famers in Crosby and Malkin, but they're also playing smart. They're not afraid to go to the net.

Rodrigues' shot map is similar to Phil Kessel. 65% of Kessel's shots come from higher in the zone. But 58% of his goals come from below the dots or in the crease. That's 15% more than Rodrigues. So Rodrigues can't even match Kessel, a guy notoriously averse to contact.

It's absolutely absurd that a professional hockey player has an extended goal scoring slump and hasn't figured out that he needs to go to the net.

 

[ChaosAgent]

His most common linemates are Kapanen, Crosby, Guentzel, Carter, Heinen, McGinn and Zucker.

This isn't on his linemates. It's a pattern throughout his career.

According to IcyData, 57% of Rodrigues' career shots come from the points or circles and it jumps to 71% if you include the high slot.

Guentzel, by comparison, has just 26% of his career shots from the points or circles (38% including the high slot). That means 62% of his shots come in the low slot or in the crease.

Bryan Rust, by the way, has a similar pattern to Guentzel. It's not a coincidence that two smaller, skilled wingers have had their stats explode. Yes, they have talent and they've meshed with two Hall of Famers in Crosby and Malkin, but they're also playing smart. They're not afraid to go to the net.

Rodrigues' shot map is similar to Phil Kessel. 65% of Kessel's shots come from higher in the zone. But 58% of his goals come from below the dots or in the crease. That's 15% more than Rodrigues. So Rodrigues can't even match Kessel, a guy notoriously averse to contact.

It's absolutely absurd that a professional hockey player has an extended goal scoring slump and hasn't figured out that he needs to go to the net.

There is merit to what you are saying, but please bear in mind that he hasn't been stapled to Crosby/Guentzel all year and our other lines are offensively inept (where he, of course, is part of that problem) in-zone. So that will skew his chart, even if it still reads more perimeter-ey. Maybe you could compare Erod with Crosby and Guentzel vs Guentzel with Crosby and Erod

 

[DesertedPenguin]

There is merit to what you are saying, but please bear in mind that he hasn't been stapled to Crosby/Guentzel all year and our other lines are offensively inept (where he, of course, is part of that problem) in-zone. So that will skew his chart, even if it still reads more perimeter-ey. Maybe you could compare Erod with Crosby and Guentzel vs Guentzel with Crosby and Erod

Dude, I just gave you the shot stats for his entire career. This isn't a one-year thing. It's how he's been every year in the NHL. It has nothing to do with his linemates.

His previous career high was 9 goals. He hit 19 this year because he went on an incredible run for three months while playing top six minutes and on the top power play. It wasn't sustainable.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Dude, I just gave you the shot stats for his entire career. This isn't a one-year thing. It's how he's been every year in the NHL. It has nothing to do with his linemates.

His previous career high was 9 goals. He hit 19 this year because he went on an incredible run for three months while playing top six minutes and on the top power play. It wasn't sustainable.

I don't doubt it. Just saying Guentzel vs. ERod is a ridiculous comparison because ERod is not nearly as good as Guentzel nor has he played with the same level of linemates. A better comp would be someone who historically got more production out of their talent at the same level by being less perimeter oriented. Like you know how the team told Lafferty to model his game after Tanev? Because it was a stretch goal but not put of the realm of feasibility. Comparing Erod and Guentzel is like comparing Guentzel to Gretzky.

 

[Peat]

Re Erod stats - back when he was good, he was generating zone entries like he was McDavid. He was actually underperforming compared to his chances (possibly because he's not that good). Now that people aren't letting him enter the zone like that, well...

I'd also point out this season was his career high in individual High Danger Chances, so I don't see how the lines this year can be considered to be why he didn't do it. And out of regular linemates, he got more iHDC with Heinen/Kapanen/McGinn that he did with Guentzel and Crosby (with Carter between Guentzel and Crosby).

ERod has 3.2 iHDCF/60 with Crosby. Rust 3.95. Rakell has 8.57 (small sample inflation).

Tbf, ERod has gone to the net a reasonable degree this season purely by numbers. But it's not his game. His game is blasting it the moment he gets the chance, despite being nowhere near good enough as a shooter to do that. He is 100% a perimeter player.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

I don't doubt it. Just saying Guentzel vs. ERod is a ridiculous comparison because ERod is not nearly as good as Guentzel nor has he played with the same level of linemates. A better comp would be someone who historically got more production out of their talent at the same level by being less perimeter oriented. Like you know how the team told Lafferty to model his game after Tanev? Because it was a stretch goal but not put of the realm of feasibility. Comparing Erod and Guentzel is like comparing Guentzel to Gretzky.

How about Conor Sheary?

54% of his career shots come from low slot or the crease.

When Sheary has had higher levels of success, those numbers spike more (59% in 2016-17, his career year).

Once again, ERod is a reversal of Sheary. Similar build, similar skill set, similar pedigree, different mindset, which is why Sheary has double digit goal seasons throughout his career and Erod has just one.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Again... ERod isn't a "go to the net" kind of guy. The vast majority of the roster isn't and never really has been. This is by design and if it isn't it's a horrific job of roster building.