Overrated Prospect Pool

[Sweatred]

My hoping that Formenton becomes an Andrew Ladd type of player, can play a 200' game, is good offensively & defensive;y, plays with an edge & can put up a good number of pts every yr, a complete player.

Sure - every team would love their 4th round picks to play like 4th overall players... that’s a big ask.

I’m pretty down on his game but I thought Dizingle was a brutal but he developed a scoring touch in the NHL.

 

[swiftwin]

Tierney was a 3rd line player on the league's worst team last season.

The 3rd line center of the worst team in the league had 48 points last season?

I'm not quite sure that adds up.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

The 3rd line center of the worst team in the league had 48 points last season?

I'm not quite sure that adds up.

So was White or Duchene the 3rd C in your mind?

 

[swiftwin]

So an average NHL 2C then? Is that what he is. So would you say he is in the top 50 C's in the league?

Yes. Although maybe 50-60 range.

He was 55th in the league among centers in points (more than Tyler Johnson, Backlund, Kadri, etc.), despite playing a ton of PK minutes (57th in the league among centers).

Also, of the top 3 centers on the team (Duchene, White, Tierney), he played the least amount of minutes with Stone. His most common linemates were Ryan and Boedker.

 

[swiftwin]

So was White or Duchene the 3rd C in your mind?

White

 

[robsenz]

The 3rd line center of the worst team in the league had 48 points last season?

I'm not quite sure that adds up.

Points look good, and I agree it shouldn't really add up, but his 9 goals and uninspiring game do add up for me. I can see last year being his career year, he should be happy with 40 points a year if that.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

White

So, Brady Tkachuk and Mark Stone were 3rd line wingers?

 

[swiftwin]

If that's the case, then our prospect pool should be rated close to dead last in the league.

Based on this quote alone, I really don't think we see Tierney as the same type or tier of player. Which is fine, but... Yeah. I think I'm either a lot more down on him than you are, or your opinion of our prospect pool is light-years worse than I originally thought.

Ok, who among our prospects will be better than a reliable two-way 48 pt center?

Brannstrom and Batherson are no-brainers.
Brown has the potential to, but at this point, he's considered too hit-or-miss, I've said for years that he's waay overrated.
I don't see Formenton as more than a 30-40pt 3rd line speedy winger.
Norris, I don't see as more than a middle 6 player (much like Tierney)
Wolanin can be a solid #4, maaaybe a #3
Lajoie is a #4-#5 at best
Balcers, probably a decent 3rd liner


The problem with Tierney is that he's at the nexus of three things that cause people to be down on him:
1. He was one of the bigger pieces we got for Karlsson
2. He plays a very smart subdued game, he doesn't motor or make flashy plays
3. People love to bank on the unknown of prospects. shiny new things syndrome

 

[swiftwin]

So, Brady Tkachuk and Mark Stone were 3rd line wingers?

No

 

[swiftwin]

Points look good, and I agree it shouldn't really add up, but his 9 goals and uninspiring game do add up for me. I can see last year being his career year, he should be happy with 40 points a year if that.

He had 40 the previous year. The fact that he got 48 last year shouldn't of shocked anyone. I don't think he'll ever get 60, but there's no reason to believe he won't hover in the 45-55 range for the next few years.

 

[Sweatred]

The 3rd line center of the worst team in the league had 48 points last season?

I'm not quite sure that adds up.

MD, Pager, White all missed a bunch of games. CT was a swing man. This team didn’t really have a 2C.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

No

How's that work? White played primarily with Tkachuk and Stone most of the year. White was the 3rd C but Tkachuk was not the 3rd line LW. I'm not sure how that's possible. White played more 5 on 5 p/g than Tierney. Please explain. You must have some incredible evidence to back this up.

 

[robsenz]

MD, Pager, White all missed a bunch of games. CT was a swing man. This team didn’t really have a 2C.

I agree, Duchene was our #1 last year...White is our #2, but imo on the lower end of what a #2 should be, hopefully he meets the expectations, but i'm not totally convinced yet,especially with this timid roster.

 

[swiftwin]

How's that work? White played primarily with Tkachuk and Stone most of the year. White was the 3rd C but Tkachuk was not the 3rd line LW. I'm not sure how that's possible. White played more 5 on 5 p/g than Tierney. Please explain. You must have some incredible evidence to back this up.

So Tierney had worse line mates, less PP time, less 5-on-5 time, the 2nd most PK minutes among forwards on the team, yet he still managed to get more points than anyone not named Stone, Duchene, or Chabot???

You're not making a good case for Tierney being bad, my friend....

 

[Sens]

So Tierney had worse line mates, less PP time, less 5-on-5 time, the 2nd most PK minutes among forwards on the team, yet he still managed to get more points than anyone not named Stone, Duchene, or Chabot???

You're not making a good case for Tierney being bad, my friend....

Sam Gagner syndrome
Sam Gagner Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

So Tierney had worse line mates, less PP time, less 5-on-5 time, the 2nd most PK minutes among forwards on the team, yet he still managed to get more points than anyone not named Stone, Duchene, or Chabot???

You're not making a good case for Tierney being bad, my friend....

So we're agreeing now that Chris Tierney was the 3rd line C... on the worst team in the league. Just want to clear that up.

 

[swiftwin]

So we're agreeing now that Chris Tierney was the 3rd line C... on the worst team in the league. Just want to clear that up.

No.

 

[Sweatred]

No.

How about ... this team has Pager at 3C and 3-4 legit 4C’s (White, CT, 51, Brown).

 

[BonkTastic]

Ok, who among our prospects will be better than a reliable two-way 48 pt center?

If he were all three of:
1) reliable
2) two-way
3) a (roughly) 50 point center

... Then he would just be a good 2nd line C on any team in the league. And he would be far more valuable than he is as an asset. Those kinda of players, especially at center, are $5mil+ players on the open market. If that's what he was, then $5mil/year is where you open contract extension talks at.

The problem with this assessment is that he is not all three of those things.

 

[bert]

Sure - every team would love their 4th round picks to play like 4th overall players... that’s a big ask.

I’m pretty down on his game but I thought Dizingle was a brutal but he developed a scoring touch in the NHL.

Dzingel played 3 more seasons in college before he even tried out for pro while Formenton is already here. People really need to be more patient the jump from Jr to the pro ranks is a big one. Formenton is 20 years old, he likely needs atleast 1 full season probably more to refine his game he is a very raw player.

I think a reasonable comparable to hope for is Jason Chimera. A huge winger who uses his speed and physicality to make room for his linemates and score 20 goals a season. If Formenton can be that player thats a great second round pick.

Tierney is a smart hockey player, his game wont stand out but he rarely hurts your team. Coachs like these types of players fans dont. He carries value, I really think they should be playing him up in the lineup to maximize his trade value, he could get the team a late first if he produces enough. The sens need to think about it in a way to get two top 15 picks this year, they need elite skill up front very badly.

If Tierney can get them a late first if they package it with the San Jose first and one of the seconds they might be able to get a second elite forward in this draft.

 

[BonkTastic]

Tierney is a smart hockey player, his game wont stand out but he rarely hurts your team. Coachs like these types of players fans dont. He carries value, I really think they should be playing him up in the lineup to maximize his trade value, he could get the team a late first if he produces enough. The sens need to think about it in a way to get two top 15 picks this year, they need elite skill up front very badly.

If Tierney can get them a late first if they package it with the San Jose first and one of the seconds they might be able to get a second elite forward in this draft.

Agreed with all this, especially the bolded.

Given our organizational weaknesses (money, a general hesitancy to retain guys like Tierney once they reach their UFA years, which Tierney is rapidly approaching, and probably also money), we should be taking a page out of Billy Beane's book and "manufacturing" trade assets the way Beane used to do with closers and relief pitchers.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Agreed with all this, especially the bolded.

Given our organizational weaknesses (money, a general hesitancy to retain guys like Tierney once they reach their UFA years, which Tierney is rapidly approaching, and probably also money), we should be taking a page out of Billy Beane's book and "manufacturing" trade assets the way Beane used to do with closers and relief pitchers.

This. Since none of the young guys have made much of a case to get on the roster in camp, we should go with the following:

Tkachuk - White - Duclair
Ennis - Anisimov - Ryan
Balcers - Tierney - Brown
Paul - Pageau - Boedker

Start exploring trades for Ennis, Anisimov, Duclair, Tierney, Pageau and Boedker in December, and then maybe bring up some young players depending on how they're performing in Belleville.

 

[coladin]

This. Since none of the young guys have made much of a case to get on the roster in camp, we should go with the following:

Tkachuk - White - Duclair
Ennis - Anisimov - Ryan
Balcers - Tierney - Brown
Paul - Pageau - Boedker

Start exploring trades for Ennis, Anisimov, Duclair, Tierney, Pageau and Boedker in December, and then maybe bring up some young players depending on how they're performing in Belleville.

I like those lines, but Paul will not make this team. I think Sabourin may take the spot.

 

[GrantLemons]

I like those lines, but Paul will not make this team. I think Sabourin may take the spot.

Honestly I'm not president of his fan club or anything, but this is it for him. You might as well start him with the big club to see what he can do with regular minutes before jettisoning him for nothing. With the amount of time invested in his development already, it would be foolish not to see what he's got with a regular shift for an extended amount of games.

If you're ever going to do it, this year is the year to do it.

 

[BonkTastic]

If the goal is to ice an objectively bad team in the hopes that we lose enough games in order to get a high draft pick, then I'm all for Sabourin to make this team.

In any other scenario - dear god, please, no.