Speculation: Our Contender Window

[Foppa2118]

Sakic has always had a long term vision to compete for not just one or two years, but multiple years, and multiple Cup windows.

For instance if he followed the plan some wanted to keep Barrie (which would likely cost $9M+ long term) and traded for and then signed Kevin Hayes ($7.142M x 7), maybe they could have contended last year, but his hands would be tied in terms of what else the Avs can add during the next 4 years of this current window.

So that likely would have meant no high end 2nd line winger next to Kadri/Hayes which everyone wants. It also may have meant they wouldn't have a 2nd contender window after MacKinnon's raise, because they'd have so much cap space tied up already.

It's pretty clear to me that Sakic's plan the whole time has been to build a team that can contend for the Cup for close to a decade, like the Avalanche team he was a part of before. That's why he signed Landy and Nate to good deals that would allow them to keep adding expensive key players during their 1st window.

It's also why he fought tooth and nail to get Mikko to sign a fair deal long term, and got Girard to sign for what should be a great deal at $5M x 7. Also why he may sign Landy this summer to a fair long term deal. He may convince Makar to sign early to a discounted rate too.

These are all designed to give them room under the cap to maneuver for the 2nd window.

With the young defensive studs the Avs have, as long as they re-sign Nate and Landy, and get good goaltending, they'll be able to remain a team that can compete for the Cup.

Then they can fill out the depth with cheap youngsters like Newhook, Kaut, Bowers, future 1st rounders, and UFA's looking to go Cup hunting on team friendly deals. Not all the prospects need to pan out, just a couple of them over the next four years.

These are the ages of the Avs key players in the first year of Nate's next contract. Still plenty of high level hockey left.

Landeskog - 31
MacKinnon - 28
Rantanen - 26

Zadorov - 28
Makar - 25
Girard - 25
Timmins - 25
Byram - 22

Grubauer - 32

 

[avsfan09]

Of course it always depends... they could have had Stastny for just cash, Hayes for futures and cash, Kadri obviously had to wait until Toronto needed a defensemen...

Last year and now the Avs could have had Stastny manning the #2C spot, and still have Barrie, and still have cap space.

Possibly but it’s not something you can state like you’re with 100% accuracy. He might have preferred to stay away from his previous team for many reasons. Way too many for us to definitively state either way.

 

[avsfan09]

True, but if we could've gotten Hayes last summer, using the pick that became Newhook and a B-prospect like OG-Helleson, then we could've contended last year...and still been in a good spot moving forward; with the cap to re-sign Ty and the OTT pick to use on Zegras (or Pod).

If you think Hayes could have made a huge difference thats fine but I disagree. He’s not a great 2c imo. Better than what we had yes but the contract commitment is a bad gamble imo.
Hayes could have potentially opened(lets get metaphorical) our window a sliver more but by being smart Sakic increases the amount our window is open and the length.

 

[henchman21]

Possibly but it’s not something you can state like you’re with 100% accuracy. He might have preferred to stay away from his previous team for many reasons. Way too many for us to definitively state either way.

And saying we’d have to give up Barrie to get a #2C is also something you can’t assume.

 

[Babel Salamander]

How long the window is depends a lot on how well the Avs can draft with later picks. They've had success building a team with high draft picks and trades. The success of later picks hasn't been great, but if they can with their current and future prospects get valuable NHL players to fill out the roster once they pay the key core guys, (Mack, Rantanen, Gabe, Makar, presuming Byram, etc.), I don't see why their window can't be closer to 10 years.

 

[avsfan09]

And saying we’d have to give up Barrie to get a #2C is also something you can’t assume.

True for sure. But I think it’s a near perfect fit so I am very happy with the way things played out.

 

[5280]

But they found a way to overcome it.

The Avs have had 3 upcoming UFA’s (ROR, Duchene and Barrie) that they turned into Zadorov, Compher, Kadri, Girard, Kamenev, Byram etc. Whether the Avs were located in Tampa, LA or Antarctica these are still moves made by a GM to get ahead.

Oh, I see what you were saying now. Yeah I agree wholeheartedly with that.

 

[flyfysher]

And saying we’d have to give up Barrie to get a #2C is also something you can’t assume.

I get it from the standpoint of contending for the SC last season. But would you prefer the Avs be built with Staz and Barrie or the way things actually went? I'd argue the team is really better positioned for the long term and much deeper now.

 

[henchman21]

I get it from the standpoint of contending for the SC last season. But would you prefer the Avs be built with Staz and Barrie or the way things actually went? I'd argue the team is really better positioned for the long term and much deeper now.

Stastny and Barrie by far... Stastny and Kadri are similar levels of players and Stastny will age well. Barrie would give a Barrie-EJ-Makar situation always on the ice and Makar manning the #2PP unit. Avs are deeper defensively and the same depth, if not better, up front for this year and last year. Then more assets available to make the team better overall. I’ve long been a Kadri fan and love him on the team... Stastny+Barrie+whatever Kerfoot returned > Kadri... and if Makar proved ready, Barrie could be moved for a wing...

 

[cgf]

If you think Hayes could have made a huge difference thats fine but I disagree. He’s not a great 2c imo. Better than what we had yes but the contract commitment is a bad gamble imo.
Hayes could have potentially opened(lets get metaphorical) our window a sliver more but by being smart Sakic increases the amount our window is open and the length.

Hayes is an absolutely average 2C; but that would've been enough for us to start actually contending; given the bigline + Tboobs, Cale & Samwise on the backend. As for the contractual commitment, that's why I'm talking about moving for him last summer, when he was much cheaper to sign.

So if Joe had actually been smart (read: proactive) we could've had a longer window and spent our summer celebrating our 1st cup of the 1st window

 

[Foppa2118]

Stastny and Barrie by far... Stastny and Kadri are similar levels of players and Stastny will age well. Barrie would give a Barrie-EJ-Makar situation always on the ice and Makar manning the #2PP unit. Avs are deeper defensively and the same depth, if not better, up front for this year and last year. Then more assets available to make the team better overall. I’ve long been a Kadri fan and love him on the team... Stastny+Barrie+whatever Kerfoot returned > Kadri... and if Makar proved ready, Barrie could be moved for a wing...

Stastny+Barrie = $15-16M

Kadri @ $4.5M allows the Avs to load up on secondary scoring and build a much more balanced lineup. He also adds the grit and physicality the Avs needed to compete in the playoffs.

 

[Balthazar]

Stastny and Barrie by far... Stastny and Kadri are similar levels of players and Stastny will age well. Barrie would give a Barrie-EJ-Makar situation always on the ice and Makar manning the #2PP unit. Avs are deeper defensively and the same depth, if not better, up front for this year and last year. Then more assets available to make the team better overall. I’ve long been a Kadri fan and love him on the team... Stastny+Barrie+whatever Kerfoot returned > Kadri... and if Makar proved ready, Barrie could be moved for a wing...

You need to take cap hit in consideration, not just the players.

 

[cgf]

You need to take cap hit in consideration, not just the players.

He did.

 

[henchman21]

You need to take cap hit in consideration, not just the players.

I did... the Avs have plenty of cap space last year and this year. Next year it all depends. Barrie still could have been an asset to sell and go after that 2nd line wing we need now... or other players can be moved.

 

[Foppa2118]

Cap space matters beyond this year for both the current 4 year window, and especially beyond that.

Sakic being wise about his use of cap space is exactly why he can afford to bring in another expensive winger for the current window, and is able to build a competitive team for the 2nd window beyond MacKinnon's current contract.

 

[5280]

I don’t understand the whole ‘woulda, coulda or shoulda’ arguments when what is going on seems to have worked. I just don’t. Maybe it’s just me.

 

[cgf]

I don’t understand the whole ‘woulda, coulda or shoulda’ arguments when what is going on seems to have worked. I just don’t. Maybe it’s just me.

Agreed, no clue why the Sakic-lovers keep bringing this stuff up

 

[avsfan09]

Hayes is an absolutely average 2C; but that would've been enough for us to start actually contending; given the bigline + Tboobs, Cale & Samwise on the backend. As for the contractual commitment, that's why I'm talking about moving for him last summer, when he was much cheaper to sign.

So if Joe had actually been smart (read: proactive) we could've had a longer window and spent our summer celebrating our 1st cup of the 1st window

We obviously disagree on the definition of smart but I think trading from a position of strength, removing a contract headache for a guy on a near perfect contract is just that. Our team is set up to have the flexibility to stay together and is more balanced because of it. Now all Sakic has to do is wait for a winger to shake loose and hopefully pick one up at the deadline that completes our offensive depth.

 

[avsfan09]

Agreed, no clue why the Sakic-lovers keep bringing this stuff up

No clue why you continually take shots at the people are happy with our squad and the way things have worked out. It just seems arrogant to claim to know better when none of us have the complete information.

But the point is Sakic has built a team that is incredibly dynamic and has started this season 5-0 while getting recognition by media as looking like a contender. I’m just going to be humble here and say I like our current GM’s and am happy with the team we are icing. Happy with our prospect depth and our on ice product. And culture that seems to be instilled. And his hiring of Bednar.

I just don’t see a lot of reasons to be pessimistic and if you want to label me as a “Sakic lover” thats fine but it’s not based on some unconditional love for a past player it’s due to the results.

 

[Raucherhusten]

Again with that myth that we would have been true contenders if only Lazy-Ass-Joe would have traded for Kevin "Not much of a help for the Jets and grossly overpaid now" Hayes.

I'm really happy that Joe didn't push the panic button back then and i'm quite enjoying the team we are able to ice now. Maybe you guys should let bygones be bygones and join the ride - it's soooo much more fun than living in the past.

 

[henchman21]

Or this whole conversation started with a post about nobody saw this coming... which was not true. A simple #2C is all the Avs needed and it was clear.

 

[MarkT]

Why wouldn’t we want to be the kings? Give me 2 cups in 3 years all day.

That's like asking why wouldn't we want to be the Oilers because they won all those cups. The team that won the cups is not the same as the team now. Yes, it's a lot of the same players, but that's part of the problem, because those same players are all old now, and they haven't surrounded those aging players with enough youth and speed to remain contenders.

Or this whole conversation started with a post about nobody saw this coming... which was not true. A simple #2C is all the Avs needed and it was clear.

Really? Because I distinctly remember a lot of people talking like we needed at least two more top 6 forwards, including a 2C. Even now that we have the 2C a lot of people didn't seem particularly happy with the roster (and that will come to the fore again if we start losing games) because we still don't have enough top 6 wingers.

Saying a 2C is all the Avs needed is revisionist history. And don't forget we brought in Brassard, who has been a 2C in the past, and look how well that worked. And Hayes in Winnipeg didn't look any better than Brassard here. Stastny might have been fine, but there is zero evidence that he would have re-signed here even if we traded for him.

And looking back, I don't think any one of the available 2Cs would have got us past St. Louis and then Boston. With all the injuries to our key guys and our weak forward depth, I think even if we beat San Jose we weren't going to beat both St. Louis and Boston.

Also, on top of all this, all that revisionist crap about last season seems to ignore the fact that we only made the playoffs because the rest of the Western conference fought over who could choke the most. So any talk of wanting the Avs to make a big move last trade deadline? That's garbage because only a stupid GM trades away quality assets for a rental when you're not even in a solid playoff position.

 

[henchman21]

That's like asking why wouldn't we want to be the Oilers because they won all those cups. The team that won the cups is not the same as the team now. Yes, it's a lot of the same players, but that's part of the problem, because those same players are all old now, and they haven't surrounded those aging players with enough youth and speed to remain contenders.



Really? Because I distinctly remember a lot of people talking like we needed at least two more top 6 forwards, including a 2C. Even now that we have the 2C a lot of people didn't seem particularly happy with the roster (and that will come to the fore again if we start losing games) because we still don't have enough top 6 wingers.

Saying a 2C is all the Avs needed is revisionist history. And don't forget we brought in Brassard, who has been a 2C in the past, and look how well that worked. And Hayes in Winnipeg didn't look any better than Brassard here. Stastny might have been fine, but there is zero evidence that he would have re-signed here even if we traded for him.

And looking back, I don't think any one of the available 2Cs would have got us past St. Louis and then Boston. With all the injuries to our key guys and our weak forward depth, I think even if we beat San Jose we weren't going to beat both St. Louis and Boston.

Also, on top of all this, all that revisionist crap about last season seems to ignore the fact that we only made the playoffs because the rest of the Western conference fought over who could choke the most. So any talk of wanting the Avs to make a big move last trade deadline? That's garbage because only a stupid GM trades away quality assets for a rental when you're not even in a solid playoff position.

If you go back you’ll find plenty of posts from @cgf and myself on this exact topic. Plenty of history on the subject.

 

[Iceberg]

Still can't believe Sakic didn't trade a 1st round pick for Hayes so we could lose to the Sharks AND not draft at 16.

 

[flyfysher]

If you go back you’ll find plenty of posts from @cgf and myself on this exact topic. Plenty of history on the subject.

It wasn't just a 2C alone although that was certainly an aspect to it. It was about the lack of secondary scoring overall. That was really the point. It seems Sakic has endeavored to address that and preliminary results are positive.

I understand your point about signing a 2C and retaining Barrie last season but my preference was the way Sakic went about it. We seem so much deeper now.