Speculation: Our Contender Window

[AllAboutAvs]

I believe our best chance of winning is this year and the next two. There is also a very good chance we will be a strong contender for Mack's 4th year if they have a good replacement for Kadri and Landy doesn't drop off too much. I see ourselves as strong contenders for the next 3-4 years. Hard to say after that but due to our core being very young I wouldn't be surprised if that window is extended. For that to happen Sakic will need to make a couple of good trades, no bad contracts, hit on our next two or three 1st rounds picks and hopefully get a couple of guys from the lower rounds to succeed. Most likely though we will have a couple of years of retooling before being strong contenders again but even those years we could be weaker contenders because once you make the playoffs you never know.

All we know right now is that Sakic has positioned the team to possibly contend for many years barring major injuries and some of our high-end prospects not getting close to reaching their potential.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I completely agree that those teams are good examples of what not to do. So I don't understand why you would use them to argue against me. We both agree that Avs should not follow the example of the Wild and the Kings. Both have been poorly managed teams, and the Wild were never contenders to begin with.

Here's where I think the misunderstanding lies. You seem to think my philosophy is "never rebuild". That's not the case. My philosophy is never put yourself in a situation where rebuilding is a the right move. Every single team that rebuilds can point to their history and find poor decisions with regards to the draft, trades, free agency, and re-signings.

On the other hand, you have teams like Boston, Tampa, Washington, Pittsburgh, Nashville, and San Jose who have managed to consistently make more good than bad decisions with their roster and have thus maintained their status in the league as contenders for far longer than 4 years in most cases.

Why wouldn’t we want to be the kings? Give me 2 cups in 3 years all day.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I really believe this team is going to be contending for a long time. At least through Rantanen’s contract and maybe longer.

Not only, do we have young star players, we have really good prospects who will only make us better in the future.

Think about it for a second; The likes of Byram, Timmins, Kaut, Newhook, and Bowers aren’t even playing for this team yet.

MacKinnon and Rantanen are such special talents that they are going to carry the load for this franchise for a while. As long as they are in their prime, we are going to be a problem to deal with, particularly when the supporting cast should get stronger in time.

The cap situation has been well managed and we should have some young players on inexpensive contracts when MacKinnon needs to sign his extension.

 

[quesosauce]

Id be ok if the avs pushed some chips all in this year or next, maybe go after taylor hall as a rental shit like that

im fine dealing with what we've had to endure the last decade to get our name on that cup another time or two

 

[5280]

I’ve always believed our “window” will be longer than four years, (which started last year, right?) It’s the type of team/organization Sakic is trying to build. Good top down, good contracts across the board.

I do think Sakic realizes its going to be easier to win with Mackinnon on this contract and will act accordingly. I don’t think he will mortgage our future and go “all in” and put all our balls on the table, but I have to think he understands the inherent importance of these next couple of years and will act accordingly.

 

[5280]

The Avs lost 3 #1 centers in 3 years because they wanted to be elsewhere yet here we are.

That was more because of the Fat Man (in the Bathtub) than being an undesirable geographical location though.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

That was more because of the Fat Man (in the Bathtub) than being an undesirable geographical location though.

But they found a way to overcome it.

The Avs have had 3 upcoming UFA’s (ROR, Duchene and Barrie) that they turned into Zadorov, Compher, Kadri, Girard, Kamenev, Byram etc. Whether the Avs were located in Tampa, LA or Antarctica these are still moves made by a GM to get ahead.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I’ve always believed our “window” will be longer than four years, (which started last year, right?) It’s the type of team/organization Sakic is trying to build. Good top down, good contracts across the board.

I do think Sakic realizes its going to be easier to win with Mackinnon on this contract and will act accordingly. I don’t think he will mortgage our future and go “all in” and put all our balls on the table, but I have to think he understands the inherent importance of these next couple of years and will act accordingly.

I really can't see how we can say our window opened last year unless we use hindsight. IMO our window is opening this season.

 

[flyfysher]

I really can't see how we can say our window opened last year unless we use hindsight. IMO our window is opening this season.

We were contending last year. The only difference was that no one expected us to be contending. Now they do.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

We were contending last year. The only difference was that no one expected us to be contending. Now they do.

That was my point. Somebody can argue that we contended but that is using hindsight. Nobody had us as a contender at the start of last season or by the TDL.

 

[Backcheckmonster3]

As a hardcore bandwagoner i must say the Avs has the brightest future in the league in the coming years imo.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

I think we can still contend beyond Nate’s contract however I 100% believe our BEST chance to win is these current 4 years.

Don’t think our window will close as suddenly as Winnipeg’s but I think there’ll be somewhat of a drop off.

I think the difference is we have top tier players like Rantanen and MacK. These two alone can lift a team. They will always keep us somewhat good. (Yeah I know we had shitty season with them but they weren't on their current level yet).

Pittsburgh is a good example. They had two great players and with those two they could keep their window over for 10+ years. We are very lucky to have MacK and Rantanen who are almost on the same level as those two.

 

[flyfysher]

That was my point. Somebody can argue that we contended but that is using hindsight. Nobody had us as a contender at the start of last season or by the TDL.

It depends on how you define 'contend.' Once you're in the POs, you've a chance. But I was speaking in terms of being designated as one of the teams with a realistic chance of winning the SC. Few thought they would last year prior to the SC so in that sense, the lack of expectation was true. But more than a few posters felt they could possibly win it once they beat the Flames. Now, everyone expects the Avs to be battling for the SC.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

It depends on how you define 'contend.' Once you're in the POs, you've a chance. But I was speaking in terms of being designated as one of the teams with a realistic chance of winning the SC. Few thought they would last year prior to the SC so in that sense, the lack of expectation was true. But more than a few posters felt they could possibly win it once they beat the Flames. Now, everyone expects the Avs to be battling for the SC.

But again that is using hindsight. Nobody had the Avs as a contender last season...well maybe Sea Eagle.

 

[flyfysher]

But again that is using hindsight. Nobody had the Avs as a contender last season...well maybe Sea Eagle.

Agreed. Sea Eagle for sure!

 

[henchman21]

That was my point. Somebody can argue that we contended but that is using hindsight. Nobody had us as a contender at the start of last season or by the TDL.

There has been a group that has routinely said for over a year that the Avs just needed a #2C, once that was solved the window opened.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

There has been a group that has routinely said for over a year that the Avs just needed a #2C, once that was solved the window opened.

Yep and the window is opening now after the Avs got that 2C this past summer hence me saying that the Avs were not contenders last season.

 

[henchman21]

Yep and the window is opening now after the Avs got that 2C this past summer hence me saying that the Avs were not contenders last season.

I get what you're saying there, just saying simply adding that #2C would have opened it last season. That was stated numerous times on this board... mostly when it centered around acquiring Stastny, Kadri, Hayes, or @cgf 's bae. So yeah the window wasn't open last season, but it certainly could have been. Even adding Hayes at the deadline could have made a difference in that San Jose series. One move and the Avs would have had as good of chance as anybody last season.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I get what you're saying there, just saying simply adding that #2C would have opened it last season. That was stated numerous times on this board... mostly when it centered around acquiring Stastny, Kadri, Hayes, or @cgf 's bae. So yeah the window wasn't open last season, but it certainly could have been. Even adding Hayes at the deadline could have made a difference in that San Jose series. One move and the Avs would have had as good of chance as anybody last season.

Got you. I thought you weree arguing that it was opened because all they needed was a #2C. However even if they would have got that 2C for the beginning of last season I doubt that the hockey world would have considered them contenders yet. I think it would have been like the Flames. They would have become contenders in their eyes as the season got along.

 

[cgf]

Not gunna argue if folks disagree, but I think there's 1 window that is almost open & will run for the next 4(ish) seasons...could be a bit longer with some bridge deals & good cap-luck...before we need to retool for a few years; so that MacK, Mikko, etc.'s, next contracts can get normalized by cap rises and we can nurture a new generation of RFA-year supporting talent.

That won't mean that we'll be tanking during the retool, just that sooner or later we're going to need to shed quality depth to retain the cup-caliber core. I still expect us to be a playoff team during the Retool, just one that's more early-2010s-Penguins than early-2010s-Hawks.

 

[avsfan09]

Why wouldn’t we want to be the kings? Give me 2 cups in 3 years all day.

I agree to an extent but I don’t think they’ve made good moves after that brief but dominant period.

 

[avsfan09]

I get what you're saying there, just saying simply adding that #2C would have opened it last season. That was stated numerous times on this board... mostly when it centered around acquiring Stastny, Kadri, Hayes, or @cgf 's bae. So yeah the window wasn't open last season, but it certainly could have been. Even adding Hayes at the deadline could have made a difference in that San Jose series. One move and the Avs would have had as good of chance as anybody last season.

But if we had traded Barrie for Kadri then we would have not been contenders either imo. So it depends on what assets would have been required at the time.

 

[Hasbro]

The Avalanche has defenestrated themselves in the last two years.

 

[henchman21]

But if we had traded Barrie for Kadri then we would have not been contenders either imo. So it depends on what assets would have been required at the time.

Of course it always depends... they could have had Stastny for just cash, Hayes for futures and cash, Kadri obviously had to wait until Toronto needed a defensemen...

Last year and now the Avs could have had Stastny manning the #2C spot, and still have Barrie, and still have cap space.

 

[cgf]

But if we had traded Barrie for Kadri then we would have not been contenders either imo. So it depends on what assets would have been required at the time.

True, but if we could've gotten Hayes last summer, using the pick that became Newhook and a B-prospect like OG-Helleson, then we could've contended last year...and still been in a good spot moving forward; with the cap to re-sign Ty and the OTT pick to use on Zegras (or Pod).