Speculation: Our Contender Window

[henchman21]

4 or less... with the roster as it is setup now and the pool, I’d say it is currently 3 seasons. That is the end of Kadri’s contract and he’ll need replaced or re-upped for a much higher amount. If he can’t be replaced, the Avs are looking at 4-5m more for him. If he can be replaced (or signs a reasonable deal) it adds a year until MacK’s raise kicks in. At that point it can be re-opened, but there will be a couple to few season re-tool. Those can really go either way, so I don’t think it can be counted on until we see what the next 2-3 seasons (at least) bring.

 

[Thepoolmaster]

I acknowledge that we do not know how the cap will be, and that we may very well be able to keep the team together. I don't believe anyone who thinks our current window being the MacKinnon contract hasn't acknowledged that.

But EJ's contract expiring making way for MacKinnon's raise (or most of it), is just one part of it. We still have:

-Makar's new deal, and if he is what we think he is, the Avs are going to need to lock him up for 8 years (if they can) and that's going to be a hefty raise out of his ELC. Let's say an 8 year deal comes in around 7M...well that's 6M additional right there

-Landeskog is getting re-signed and is probably getting into the 8's, so there's another 3M

-Grubauer will need re-signed, and if he continues being able to handle the starter's workload, then he's probably getting into the 5-5.5M area, so there's another 2Mish.

-What about Kadri? He has 2 years left at his 4.1M and if the Avs haven't gotten an adequate 2C before that contract is up, then we may be looking at re-signing him, and he's probably into the 7M-8M range just due to his name and career he's had thus far. But let's play on the more conservative side, so let's say 3M

Those are ones we know about right now because there's a certainty that their deals are expiring and the Avs will need to retain them (or bring in people to replace them at a similar cost).

So, just by that math we have:

MacK's raise: ~6M

+

Landeskog's raise: ~3M

+

Makar's raise: ~6M

+

Grubauer's raise: ~2Mish

+

Kadri's raise: ~3M

= 20M just right there, and that's not counting the current Girard deal which kicks in next year. We've seen the the NHLPA elect to not utilize the cap inflator, and as a result we've seen the cap come in under projections the last two seasons. We do know Seattle coming in should result in a cap increase, which will be good, but the question then moves to whether or not the increases stay.

And let's add in the complication that the NHLPA hates the escrow system, and if that ends up being adjusted that will have an impact on the cap as well.

My bottom line is that there are just way too many uncertainties out there, but we know we're facing rising costs within the next 4 years, and it's very possible that after those 4 years are up the team will need to retool and thus won't necessarily be guaranteed to continue being in their window of contention.

These additions don't take into account all the other players coming off the books.

The equation is really 20 M - (Nieto (1.9) - Bellemare (1.8) - Calvert (2.8) - Wilson (2.6) - Cole (4.25) - ...) + (Bowers (0.875) + Kaut (.875) + Byram (.875)) + Cap Dump.

Not to mention whatever player Vegas takes from us. (likely Zads / Compher / Jost). Which for where the avs are is a bit of a blessing in disguise, as they don't need to move any assets to get rid of a likely 4mil hit which makes up for Girard.

I'm sure you are well aware of this and it's not directed necessarily at you. I just get tired of reading these increase in costs without taking into account the subtractions.

Again this comes down to how well the avs draft to replace the depth though. If you believe in guys like Bowers / Kaut / Kamenev and on D Byram / Helleson etc. then the window extends. If you believe the Avs are a bad drafting team (which they are outside of the top 10) then the window is likely in the 4 years because they can't replace Calvert with Kaut. They need to go sign another Calvert. This is where they have to be careful. Targeting and getting the right depth for the right price becomes increasingly more important in the future. You can't afford a Calvert for 3 mil.

Even this is simplistic and like you said there are a lot of uncertainties and the best thing to do in my opinion is to go "all in carefully". By that I mean giving a 12 mil contract to Panarin like Joe wanted. Not giving a 7-8 mil deal to a guy like Kreider who I don't think will be worth that contract. I think that is what MarkT is referring to when he says that the window doesn't have to be 4 years.

 

[avsfan09]

Impossible to answer this question without knowing the future. The window's open now, that's all I can say. There's potential for a very long opening, though, which is why I would not disrupt the development of team and franchise.

Exactly this. No one can say with certainty and anyone who pretends to be certain is easily ignored. Sakic has set our team up to not only be contenders but to be flexible enough that we can continue to contend if he makes the right moves and isn’t reckless.

I’m not against trading futures but I also hate the let’s just sign reckless contracts because time is running out crowd. It just seems stupid not to keep options open.

 

[SirLoinOfCloth]

I went to the Wild's board to find their contender window speculation thread. I came up empty.

 

[RockLobster]

These additions don't take into account all the other players coming off the books.

The equation is really 20 M - (Nieto (1.9) - Bellemare (1.8) - Calvert (2.8) - Wilson (2.6) - Cole (4.25) - ...) + (Bowers (0.875) + Kaut (.875) + Byram (.875)) + Cap Dump.

Not to mention whatever player Vegas takes from us. (likely Zads / Compher / Jost). Which for where the avs are is a bit of a blessing in disguise, as they don't need to move any assets to get rid of a likely 4mil hit which makes up for Girard.

I'm sure you are well aware of this and it's not directed necessarily at you. I just get tired of reading these increase in costs without taking into account the subtractions.

Again this comes down to how well the avs draft to replace the depth though. If you believe in guys like Bowers / Kaut / Kamenev and on D Byram / Helleson etc. then the window extends. If you believe the Avs are a bad drafting team (which they are outside of the top 10) then the window is likely in the 4 years because they can't replace Calvert with Kaut. They need to go sign another Calvert. This is where they have to be careful. Targeting and getting the right depth for the right price becomes increasingly more important in the future. You can't afford a Calvert for 3 mil.

Even this is simplistic and like you said there are a lot of uncertainties and the best thing to do in my opinion is to go "all in carefully". By that I mean giving a 12 mil contract to Panarin like Joe wanted. Not giving a 7-8 mil deal to a guy like Kreider who I don't think will be worth that contract. I think that is what MarkT is referring to when he says that the window doesn't have to be 4 years.

Thus far, the Avs have shown they can't develop those bottom-6 players, so they are forced to spend money in UFA to acquire them, which does need to be accounted for. They may have something in Bowers, and I certainly hope they do. So yeah, they will have players like Nieto, Bellemare, Calvert, and Wilson coming off, but if they haven't figured out how to properly develop those role players, they'll be right back in UFA filling them.

And honestly, those of us who believe their current window is this MacKinnon contract aren't (at least from what I am seeing) saying that the window is only 4 years. It's more about that in 4 years there will have to be hard decisions made, and the current core stands a fair shot at not being together anymore. We have also acknowledged that the window can extended if they can actually draft and develop well, but their entire history shows that they are not super great at that.

But I'm sorry--I believe their current best chance at winning a cup is within this current MacKinnon contract. Doesn't mean it cannot be extended, but I'm only looking at what the Avs have now and what we know they have to do in the future, and to me it says their best opportunity is to give it every effort now.

 

[avsfan09]

Our "window" started last season and continues until MacK's contract is up. Some teams have succeeded in retooling and won cups with players on big contracts, but as others have said, that requires top tier drafting which the Avalanche have not had.

I think we should go all in this season. Trade away that first rounder and whatever prospects we need to in order to find some winger help for the second line. Trading away picks from the 2021 draft on is something I wouldn't do though. Start with going all in this season. We will need high quality ELC players to round out the roster in year 4 of MacK's contract too, but I feel like we can afford to trade away 2020's draft picks for immediate help now.

Even if we don’t have top tier drafting we have “top tier” assets and Sakic appears to be good at trading imo. I think Sakic has smartly given himself alot of options for when things do come to a pinch.

 

[Thepoolmaster]

Thus far, the Avs have shown they can't develop those bottom-6 players, so they are forced to spend money in UFA to acquire them, which does need to be accounted for. They may have something in Bowers, and I certainly hope they do. So yeah, they will have players like Nieto, Bellemare, Calvert, and Wilson coming off, but if they haven't figured out how to properly develop those role players, they'll be right back in UFA filling them.

And honestly, those of us who believe their current window is this MacKinnon contract aren't (at least from what I am seeing) saying that the window is only 4 years. It's more about that in 4 years there will have to be hard decisions made, and the current core stands a fair shot at not being together anymore. We have also acknowledged that the window can extended if they can actually draft and develop well, but their entire history shows that they are not super great at that.

But I'm sorry--I believe their current best chance at winning a cup is within this current MacKinnon contract. Doesn't mean it cannot be extended, but I'm only looking at what the Avs have now and what we know they have to do in the future, and to me it says their best opportunity is to give it every effort now.

That's definitely fair. And that's what I was saying in my other post about if you don't believe in the Avs ability to draft then you will believe that the window will be within the 4 years.

Fair enough. Maybe I am misunderstanding then, because it seems that the argument is to give up everything to go for it in the 4 years. The way I see it is if you trade too many picks and prospects to go for it in the 4 years you artificially create your own 4 year window, because you can't replace anyone with depth since you have no picks to do so with. Especially the Avs who suck at drafting outside the first round.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

4 years or less is an absurd answer imo, can't believe anyone seriously believes that.

The Avs have quite possibly the best young core in the league. Byram is still in juniors. There are zero bad contracts on this team that will cripple the cap structure. Makar is playing his rookie year. MacKinnon and Rantanen have about a decade of high level hockey left in them. The coaching is good and Sakic has proven to be a smart GM.

If the Avs window is 4 or less then no other team has a longer window either. Can this beautiful situation be ruined? Absolutely, if we get really unlucky with career ruining injuries or Sakic all of a sudden becomes terrible at his job. I don't see any other scenario where the window is 4 or less.

 

[flyfysher]

Exactly this. No one can say with certainty and anyone who pretends to be certain is easily ignored. Sakic has set our team up to not only be contenders but to be flexible enough that we can continue to contend if he makes the right moves and isn’t reckless.

I’m not against trading futures but I also hate the let’s just sign reckless contracts because time is running out crowd. It just seems stupid not to keep options open.

Nailed it. Sakic has positioned the Avs to have maximum flexibility given the known and unknowns. What other teams are as well positioned as the Avs, personnel and cap wise up to the entry draft? I don't know other organizations well but I think we have a 'long' cup window by NHL standards even at 4 years.

 

[RockLobster]

That's definitely fair. And that's what I was saying in my other post about if you don't believe in the Avs ability to draft then you will believe that the window will be within the 4 years.

Fair enough. Maybe I am misunderstanding then, because it seems that the argument is to give up everything to go for it in the 4 years. The way I see it is if you trade too many picks and prospects to go for it in the 4 years you artificially create your own 4 year window, because you can't replace anyone with depth since you have no picks to do so with. Especially the Avs who suck at drafting outside the first round.

I think it depends on what you would define as "give up everything" in the next 4 years.

For instance, I think they should look at trading their 1st this year or next year (but not both) for 2nd line wing help. Not sure yet who I would target, or what they could be had for (if they can be had for a mixture of lesser pieces, then sure, go for it).

I also wouldn't preclude certain prospects if it meant finding the right help now. Not saying give everyone way, but to be about the only untouchable prospect would be Byram. Every other player/prospect could be included for the right piece, in my opinion.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

But I'm sorry--I believe their current best chance at winning a cup is within this current MacKinnon contract.

 

[The Abusement Park]

4 years or less is an absurd answer imo, can't believe anyone seriously believes that.

The Avs have quite possibly the best young core in the league. Byram is still in juniors. There are zero bad contracts on this team that will cripple the cap structure. Makar is playing his rookie year. MacKinnon and Rantanen have about a decade of high level hockey left in them. The coaching is good and Sakic has proven to be a smart GM.

If the Avs window is 4 or less then no other team has a longer window either. Can this beautiful situation be ruined? Absolutely, if we get really unlucky with career ruining injuries or Sakic all of a sudden becomes terrible at his job. I don't see any other scenario where the window is 4 or less.

If we draft well over the next couple years than extending the window won't be too hard, but the avs have shown time and time again drafting and developing is a hard task for them. That is what will decide how long our window is, but out best shot is in the next 4 years and that's just a fact.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I think we can still contend beyond Nate’s contract however I 100% believe our BEST chance to win is these current 4 years.

Don’t think our window will close as suddenly as Winnipeg’s but I think there’ll be somewhat of a drop off.

 

[Balthazar]

I think we can still contend beyond Nate’s contract however I 100% believe our BEST chance to win is these current 4 years.

Yes and no. In 4 years Makar will hit his prime, possibly Byram too. That gives a whole other dimension to the team.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Yes and no. In 4 years Makar will hit his prime, possibly Byram too. That gives a whole other dimension to the team.

Mack, Landy, Rants are peaking/in their prime right now. That's far more important to our success.

 

[flyfysher]

Well, they did draft Timmins in the second round. I'm more apt to judge their draft picks since Roy left though if only because the picks are modeled to what the Avs are looking for in players. Speed, skill, hockey IQ. Those are the traits which Sakic has consistently emphasized and based on reports that I read in our prospects forum, I'm pleased. I'm watching Sakic rebuild the entire organization and IMO he has done one heckuva job. Just a little patience with the draft picks people. I trust Sakic and Hepple will get us there and we will become better at drafting and developing players.

 

[henchman21]

Yes and no. In 4 years Makar will hit his prime, possibly Byram too. That gives a whole other dimension to the team.

They will need to add that dimension to continue contending. We will certainly be out of Landy’s prime, and Kadri’s too if the keep him. MacK and Rants will be a few years from the end of the typical aging curve. Byram and Makar will need to be high end players in 4 years to continue contending.

 

[Balthazar]

Don’t think our window will close as suddenly as Winnipeg’s but I think there’ll be somewhat of a drop off.

This is such a bad example yet it's used all the time. Winnipeg failed because of its geographical position. Its #1 dman wanted to GTFO, they couldn't retain players that they traded for because its an unattractive market and now their other best defenseman is "retiring" for no apparent reason. That's a bunch of shit that don't normally happen and have nothing to do with passiveness.

 

[Thepoolmaster]

I think it depends on what you would define as "give up everything" in the next 4 years.

For instance, I think they should look at trading their 1st this year or next year (but not both) for 2nd line wing help. Not sure yet who I would target, or what they could be had for (if they can be had for a mixture of lesser pieces, then sure, go for it).

I also wouldn't preclude certain prospects if it meant finding the right help now. Not saying give everyone way, but to be about the only untouchable prospect would be Byram. Every other player/prospect could be included for the right piece, in my opinion.

Agreed. The example I think of for this is Pittsburgh who hasn't had a first round pick in 3 years. The pens have managed to stay afloat because of Crosby / Malkin but they also seem to have guys that they draft in later rounds work out.

Or a team like the Kings who had 2 first round picks in from 2011 to 2016. They are in a bad spot now because they haven't drafted well outside the first round and gave up a lot of first rounders to get their two cups. One could argue it was worth it though considering they won 2.

So long as the Avs are able to keep enough pieces that they don't end up like the Kings they should be able to retool easily. The leafs are another team that made some bad decisions - Marleau and have led to them having to give up a first to get rid of him. That first hurts because it means it's harder to fill a slot.

Ultimately I agree with you though. I would move almost any prospect / pick to push for the cup this year or next. So long as the targeted player is the right one and in some cases is really only considered a rental. If the deal is right to get a top 6 wing they would be stupid not to do it. Then the next question is if that player is worth committing to long term, because committing 7 years to try and win in 4 isn't ideal imo since it hinders your ability to retool in the future.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

This is such a bad example yet it's used all the time. Winnipeg failed because of his geographical position. Its #1 dman wanted to GTFO, they couldn't retain players that they traded for because its an unattractive market and now their other best defenseman is "retiring" for no apparent reason. That's a bunch of **** that don't normally happen and have nothing to do with passiveness.

The Avs lost 3 #1 centers in 3 years because they wanted to be elsewhere yet here we are.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Lets assume the window is done in 4 years, which I don't believe at all. What kind of a team are the Avs then? Do they miss the playoffs or barely make it and get rekt in the 1st round by the real contenders of the west? After all the window is closed, we can't contend despite having Mack, Rants, Makar, Byram etc.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Lets assume the window is done in 4 years, which I don't believe at all. What kind of a team are the Avs then? Do they miss the playoffs or barely make it and get rekt in the 1st round by the real contenders of the west? After all the window is closed, we can't contend despite having Mack, Rants, Makar, Byram etc.

My guess would be in 5 years we will still have our top guys and we're up against the cap and then we lose Rantanen as a cap casualty and end up as a bubble/low end playoff team unless we really hit on some draft picks coming up.

Like I said in last post our best chance at winning is 100% in the next 4 years, no ifs ands or buts. Our drafting will dictate how long we can keep that window rolling.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Here's what I actually said: "I believe all teams should try to be at least solid playoff teams every single season"

Solid playoff team does not mean just barely squeaking in. And I consider solid playoff team to be a down year for the way I want the Avs to be run. The goal every year should be top team in the league.

Also, funny you chose those teams. Why not Boston, Washington, Nashville, San Jose, Tampa or Pittsburgh? You know, teams that make the playoffs every year and always seem to be contenders even when people say they're done.

The Wild never had enough talent to be contenders, but were stuck with a contract situation that never allowed them to tank. Then they made a series of poor decisions and are now in a situation where they should be tanking, but aren't.

L.A. also made a series of poor decisions by continuing to acquire slow, old players despite the NHL getting consistently younger and faster.

Neither of those team is a comparable team to the Avalanche.

I chose those teams because they are perfect example of delusion. They should be re-building. BTW Wild was solid playoff team for years but they missed their window. LA signed Kovy, which is the opposite what they should be doing.

Both those teams are good example what not to do.

 

[Spleenless Wonder21]

Sakic will just have to get creative & prop that thing open for another few seasons following MacKs’ next contract.

 

[MarkT]

I chose those teams because they are perfect example of delusion. They should be re-building. BTW Wild was solid playoff team for years but they missed their window. LA signed Kovy, which is the opposite what they should be doing.

Both those teams are good example what not to do.

I completely agree that those teams are good examples of what not to do. So I don't understand why you would use them to argue against me. We both agree that Avs should not follow the example of the Wild and the Kings. Both have been poorly managed teams, and the Wild were never contenders to begin with.

Here's where I think the misunderstanding lies. You seem to think my philosophy is "never rebuild". That's not the case. My philosophy is never put yourself in a situation where rebuilding is a the right move. Every single team that rebuilds can point to their history and find poor decisions with regards to the draft, trades, free agency, and re-signings.

On the other hand, you have teams like Boston, Tampa, Washington, Pittsburgh, Nashville, and San Jose who have managed to consistently make more good than bad decisions with their roster and have thus maintained their status in the league as contenders for far longer than 4 years in most cases.