Speculation: Our Contender Window

[MarkT]

1st Bolded is just pure bull****. He's only been wanting a RHD since we traded our best one a few months ago. Why on Earth would he have beem clamoring for a RHD a year ago when the organization had Tyson, EJ, Makar, Meloche, and Timmins in the organization.


And everyone still recognizes this team needs another Top 6 forward to truly contend. Why do you think Taylor Hall is mentioned so much on our boards.

Great, so we all agree that the team needed a 2C, plus more depth (Bura and Donskoi) PLUS another top 6 forward before it could be called a truly condender. That's my point. Adding just a 2C last season wouldn't have made us an instant contender.

Cant help bust stop taking your post seriously when you think we can be contenders for "at least a decade". Talk about being completely out of touch with the NHL landscape.

I never said it would be easy to be a contender that long, but San Jose, Nashville, Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston, Tampa - these are teams that have been a threat to win the cup every single year for a long, long time. Those are the kind of teams I hope the Avs emulate.

With Stastny signed and Barrie in tow... all cgf would be clamoring for is a top 6 winger. Which is a common piece added by contending teams at the deadline.

Great, so are we finally all agreeing that the team wasn't *just* a 2c away from being a contender last season then?

Of course cups aren’t guaranteed that’s not what I’m saying. I meant I’d be ok with a decline of it meant 2 cups in 3 years.

You literally said: "I’d much rather guarantee 2 cups."

Ya. I'd take being the Oilers for the next decade if it meant wining the cup this year. That is literally the single goal in hockey. Do what it takes to win and deal with whatever comes of it afterwards while you're drinking beer from the cup.

If anything Columbus should be praised more for taking that go for it approach. Not to mention people massively overrate how "Screwed" they are now. They still have a lot of quality, quality pieces on that team and are still a bubble playoff team.

We have a totally different philosophy. I'll try to explain mine.

If we won the cup this year, but the decisions we made to achieve that lead directly to the Avs being a bad team for a decade, I'd consider that a horrible situation. One good year as a fan for 10 bad ones? I don't care how good that year was, it's not worth going back to the Joe Sacco era. See, my philosophy is that as a fan, I want to enjoy cheering for the team every. single. year. It's not much fun being a fan of a bad team. So what I want is a team run by people who understand that, and do what they can to make the team good every year. And I'm not talking about being a Wildcard team every year. Cheering for a team that is never really a contender is no fun either.

Now, if I were a player I'd agree with you - winning the cup would be worth almost anything. But we as fans don't get to drink beer from the cup - winning it isn't our accomplishment.

And as for Columbus, they've basically doomed themselves to being a bubble playoff team for the foreseeable future. I don't think they suck now, I just think they're not contenders and they're not likely to be any time soon. Had they traded Panarin and Bobrovsky when they had the chance (and I mean the offseason before they left), they could be on the path to contending right now. See, their mistake wasn't trading for Duchene and Dzingel etc..- it was putting themselves in a position where they only had one year to take a shot at the cup.

 

[5280]

Oh I certainly do...like I've said (repeatedly) this summer

This isn't a Jogi Löw situation lol; I critique Joe because I think about sports from a management/coaching perspective and because I think Joe's overly risk-averse, not because I think Joe is doing a terrible job & needs to be replaced ASAP. My snarky posts on this topic are almost always just a response to a snarky pro-Joe post.

Yeah I had to check out this summer. I was holding on too tight. By the way, I must apologize for my comment to you. It was unnecessary.

I like to look at things from an organizational perspective, too. If there is any criticism I can level at Joe is that he is a tad slow on the draw, but you could even argue that he is just looking at things from a different perspective.

One thing I have always thought that he had an advantage over other GM’s at is job security. He is not going to get fired, he’ll have to step down or take on a different role. I think this gives him a lot of leeway when making decisions and he CAN be more risk averse. He doesn’t have the pressure from the top like other gm’s do, so he doesn’t have to make the riskier moves and can wait other gm’s out.

Who is Jogi Low, by the way? Is he the German football manager who was caught eating his boogers? Not a fan? Hahah

 

[cgf]

Yeah I had to check out this summer. I was holding on too tight. By the way, I apologize for my comment to you. It was unnecessary.

I like to look at things from an organizational perspective, too. If there is any criticism I can level at Joe is that he is a tad slow on the draw, but you could even argue that he is just looking at things from a different perspective.

One thing I have always thought that he had an advantage over other GM’s at is job security. He is not going to get fired, he’ll have to step down or take on a different role. I think this gives him a lot of leeway when making decisions and he can be more risk averse. He doesn’t have the pressure from the top like other gm’s do, so he doesn’t have to make the riskier moves and can wait other gm’s out.

Who is Jogi Low, by the way? Is he the German football manager who was caught eating his boogers? Not a fan? Hahah

Jogi is the reason the german NT only won 1 major tourney during the 2010s, despite having had a second golden generation of players for him to call upon

That's a good point about his job security and probably plays into the more-cautious pace at which he operates...as he won't ever be pressured to step down because of playing it safe; whereas a more aggressive gamble blowing up in his face, could create pressure on him. Be that internal pressure born from his own fondness for the club, or external pressure coming from fans/ownership.

 

[henchman21]

Great, so are we finally all agreeing that the team wasn't *just* a 2c away from being a contender last season then?

Nope all contenders have to make tweaks. Sometimes it is internal, sometimes it is external. It is about having the basis to compete for a cup and figuring out the fringes from there. Kadri is the big add this year and suddenly the Avs are contenders.

 

[The Abusement Park]

No one here was clamoring for Grubauer to be in net at all. In fact, most posters and fans didn't want him on the ice given his anemic performances until the end of March.

He never got a fair shake until the end of the year and performed at least as well as Varly, especially during the bad month. And at that point you have to see what you have in Gru considering you traded for him and signed him for 3 years, which clearly points to him being the long term solution in net.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I never said it would be easy to be a contender that long, but San Jose, Nashville, Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston, Tampa - these are teams that have been a threat to win the cup every single year for a long, long time. Those are the kind of teams I hope the Avs emulate.

I'd much rather be the Kings than the Preds or the Sharks.

On the Caps, you have the greatest goal scorer of all time. The Pens have a generational talent and the 3rd(maybe 2nd) best player of an entire era on their team; those change the rules for contending teams. Mack and Rants are great players but as of now they don't really compare to those 3. Plus with our drafting record we also can't compare to those teams unless there is a dramatic change in our development and scouting starting basically last year.

I'd love to contend for a decade, but it isn't likely.

 

[cgf]

Peak Malkin was arguably even more dominant, but given his inconsistencies & injuries; I don't think arguing that MacK is currently on par with Malkin (back in his prime) over the course of a full season, is really a stretch. But yeah, we don't have an Ovi or Sid.

Our core matches the Hawks core most, of all the long-term contenders from this past decade...only without the cap-circumventing contracts...and though we now talk mostly about the mistakes that caused the Hawks' run to end; there were many great moves made before the roof came crashing down, that stretched their window out beyond what it had any right to be. And expecting the kind of results they got out of the bargain bin, is a tough ask of any FO.

 

[Foppa2118]

I was beating that drum that all of that 2018 summer, so I don't see how that is revisionist history with I posted over and over about it. I simply believed the #2C spot was the biggest hole on the team and if solved other pieces would fall into place. With a #2C the whole season, or even half of it, the Avs are not as much in a dog fight to get into the playoffs. Plus the Kings won their first Cup as a #8 seed... being an eighth seed doesn't mean a team can't compete.

I remember you wanting a 2C, I don't remember you claiming the Avs were a 2C away from competing for the Cup. I'm not sure how you could believe that when you also thought Varly sucked and couldn't be relied upon, were questioning Makar's ability based on his draft+1 numbers, thought EJ and Zadorov were overrated, and no one had seen Girard play on the top pair before.

 

[cgf]

I remember you wanting a 2C, I don't remember you claiming the Avs were a 2C away from competing for the Cup. I'm not sure how you could believe that when you also thought Varly sucked and couldn't be relied upon, were questioning Makar's ability based on his draft+1 numbers, thought EJ and Zadorov were overrated, and no one had seen Girard play on the top pair before.

You're definitely mixing him up with someone else. Henchy's been beating the drum for Cale even longer than I have.

E:
The posts are there. The search function can suck but if you make the effort, I know for a fact that I've written essays on here about the massive advantage that having Barrie, Makar & Girard on our blueline would give us...and how, with that advantage + the one that our top line gave us against anyone + the one that we'd have with Soda anchoring our 3rd line, if we had a 2nd line that could hold serve & let the Soda line actually be our 3rd line; our skaters would be ready to run.

And I've definitely liked similar essays from Henchy & Cobra.

 

[henchman21]

You're definitely mixing him up with someone else. Henchy's been beating the drum for Cale even longer than I have.

I can't see the post in reference here, but I've always been more conservative with Makar's projection. I've never thought low of him, but this game changing, Karlsson 2.0 has always been a bit much to me. I have said that the Avs hitched their wagon to him being the guy when building this core up and they'd, in different words, have to ride or die with this being the group. Picking up Byram in the draft this past year allows some leeway on Makar becoming a #1D.

 

[Foppa2118]

You're definitely mixing him up with someone else. Henchy's been beating the drum for Cale even longer than I have.

No, he wasn't a big fan. Which is fine, and I'm not trying to bring up old stuff, but he said he'd be upset if the Avs drafted Makar, said he'd have to be really good offensively just to stick in the NHL because of his size, and that it's easy for someone like Makar to look like he has a high IQ in junior.

 

[cgf]

I can't see the post in reference here, but I've always been more conservative with Makar's projection. I've never thought low of him, but this game changing, Karlsson 2.0 has always been a bit much to me. I have said that the Avs hitched their wagon to him being the guy when building this core up and they'd, in different words, have to ride or die with this being the group. Picking up Byram in the draft this past year allows some leeway on Makar becoming a #1D.

Guess I'm think more of the early days, when a big faction on this board was adamant about Timmins being the better prospect than Barrie 2.0; rather than the more over-the-top hyperbole that we started to see last season...when I was also trying to temper people's short-term expectations because of the way Cale's taken his time to get settled in at previous levels.

The post I was responding to included the line "[you] were questioning Makar's ability based on his draft+1 numbers"; which seemed a gross misrepresentation of telling folks that they shouldn't be disappointed if Cale doesn't come out of the gates out-producing Dahlin...but maybe I'm misremembering your stance on this specific question; since you've shared a lot of my opinions on Makar & his development, since his draft year.

Even if you did take too long to listen to me about Heiskanen, that year

 

[henchman21]

Guess I'm think more of the early days, when a big faction on this board was adamant about Timmins being the better prospect than Barrie 2.0; rather than the more over-the-top hyperbole that we started to see last season...when I was also trying to temper people's short-term expectations because of the way Cale's taken his time to get settled in at previous levels.

The post I was responding to included the line "[you] were questioning Makar's ability based on his draft+1 numbers"; which seemed a gross misrepresentation of telling folks that they shouldn't be disappointed if Cale doesn't come out of the gates out-producing Dahlin...but maybe I'm misremembering your stance on this specific question; since you've shared a lot of my opinions on Makar & his development, since his draft year.

Even if you did take too long to listen to me about Heiskanen, that year

I've always thought Makar was a risky pick because the likely ceiling (read not absolute ceiling, but likely) was a player that fit either as a #2 or #3 as an offensively slanted defensemen. Taking that at the 4th pick is a risky move. You're betting that he becomes elite when taking that type of defensemen in the top 7/8 picks. Doesn't mean it can't work out and doesn't mean that Makar won't be all world, you're just putting a bet on a risky piece. The expectations on Makar are huge... we've seen 50+ thrown out a bunch and Calder nominations... He's talented enough to hit those, but people should really temper them. Even the best defensemen coming into the league have had a hard time crossing 40-45... it is expecting Makar to surpass that as a rookie and I'm of the ilk that would rather be pleasantly surprised and happy with a 45 point season versus being disappointed that he couldn't top Dahlin/Werenski numbers.

 

[avsfan09]

Same reasons you keep phrasing things in a way to take shots at people who don't feel like praising Joe for his farts


Clearly. In my world giving away one of the two competitive advantages that made you near-contenders, just because you're cheap & scared of taking any sort of risk, is very very not-smart. Especially when you do it for a guy who could close Window #1 early if Newhook or Bowers isn't ready to replace him on the cheap in 3 years; after ensuring that Window #1 opens later than it could have. But then again, I prefer actually contending to watching cup-portunities pass by.

(see you're not the only one who can be patronizing with their phrasing)

What shots have I taken aha? I just take issue when you are being disingenuous.

As for your second paragraph... I never once insulted you. I dont understand how you keep missing the fact that only worrying about the now can make you miss on cup opportunities in the future. It’s a balance thing but anyways you clearly are only interested in straw maning me and I’m not that interested in that type of convo.

 

[avsfan09]

Ya. I'd take being the Oilers for the next decade if it meant wining the cup this year. That is literally the single goal in hockey. Do what it takes to win and deal with whatever comes of it afterwards while you're drinking beer from the cup.


If anything Columbus should be praised more for taking that go for it approach. Not to mention people massively overrate how "Screwed" they are now. They still have a lot of quality, quality pieces on that team and are still a bubble playoff team.

I would do anything to be a millionaire. Does that mean I should sell all my stuff and throw the money on a game of roulette? Or should I just make smart investments until I build up enough wealth to be able to make more profitable investments without risking it all. All I’m trying to say is that we have to balance our present and future in order to create the best odds.

 

[cgf]

What shots have I taken aha? I just take issue when you are being disingenuous.

As for your second paragraph... I never once insulted you. I dont understand how you keep missing the fact that only worrying about the now can make you miss on cup opportunities in the future. It’s a balance thing but anyways you clearly are only interested in straw maning me and I’m not that interested in that type of convo.

Funny how you never have any qualms with being disingenuous & straw-manning my points

 

[avsfan09]

Funny how you never have any qualms with being disingenuous & strawmanning my arguments

I may misunderstand them at times but I don’t do anything like you do. When I make a mistake I certainpy dont double down and call others cowards but you keep on your high horse and maybe you’ll eventually get somewhere.

 

[5280]

Will be interesting in a couple of years to see who was right here and who was wrong.

To me it’s all bullshitting around a campfire, because who knows what’s going to happen in the future.

Also, if we win a couple of cups I’m not worried about how it was done. I’ll take them any way they come.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Will be interesting in a couple of years to see who was right here and who was wrong.

To me it’s all bull****ting around a campfire, because who knows what’s going to happen in the future.

Also, if we win a couple of cups I’m not worried about how it was done. I’ll take them any way they come.

Even if there is a skate in the crease?

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Will be interesting in a couple of years to see who was right here and who was wrong.

To me it’s all bull****ting around a campfire, because who knows what’s going to happen in the future.

Also, if we win a couple of cups I’m not worried about how it was done. I’ll take them any way they come.

You'll never be able to settle who was right or wrong in this argument. Even if the Avs win three SC in a row starting this season, we'll hear that they could have won four if they had got the #2C last season.

 

[filip85]

I think the difference is we have top tier players like Rantanen and MacK. These two alone can lift a team. They will always keep us somewhat good. (Yeah I know we had ****ty season with them but they weren't on their current level yet).

Pittsburgh is a good example. They had two great players and with those two they could keep their window over for 10+ years. We are very lucky to have MacK and Rantanen who are almost on the same level as those two.

Hmmm....they are not...

 

[flyfysher]

Oh I certainly do...like I've said (repeatedly) this summer

This isn't a Jogi Löw situation lol; I critique Joe because I think about sports from a management/coaching perspective and because I think Joe's overly risk-averse, not because I think Joe is doing a terrible job & needs to be replaced ASAP. My snarky posts on this topic are usually just a response to a snarky pro-Joe post.


Trading away your best (right-shooting) blueliner & third best offensive creator changes your needs ;-)

I have to laugh at the Barrie love because the TML lost the other day and he was a -4. IIRC, Makar looked pretty meh but he ended up +. So it wasn't as though we should automatically assume Barrie was going to carry us to the SC.

If you're guilty of anything cgf, I think you're a little too narrow in how you believe Sakic should be in terms of trades, acquisitions, etc. It's like your way is the only right way but I take that mostly as a result of your having keenly analyzed the situation in terms of determining what the team's needs are and how to address that while maximizing their competitiveness at present within the cap constraints. Sometimes you come off as arrogant with the snark but that's because you're firmly convinced in the righteousness of your position after giving it much consideration. So I'm good with that. You say Sakic is risk averse and I disagree. But it seems to me that sometimes you need to view who he might consider acquiring in terms of the type of player he wants to acquire. Remember, youth, fast, skilled, and great hockey IQ. He was also looking at it in terms of building an organization with a culture and identity and not necessarily going for it last season for better or worse. Remember, it's not as though the Avs looked to be making the POs last season until late so it's not as though Sakic should have been thinking, man if we just pick up Staz or Hayes then the SC is ours.

 

[5280]

You'll never be able to settle who was right or wrong in this argument. Even if the Avs win three SC in a row starting this season, we'll hear that they could have won four if they had got the #2C last season.

Yeah, you’re right. That’s why this can be kind of an annoying topic. Oh well.

 

[henchman21]

Will be interesting in a couple of years to see who was right here and who was wrong.

To me it’s all bull****ting around a campfire, because who knows what’s going to happen in the future.

Also, if we win a couple of cups I’m not worried about how it was done. I’ll take them any way they come.

Same... I don't even care about a couple. A single Cup, at any point, during this core group's tenure is what I care about. If this core ages out, I'll worry about the next core. Winning a Cup is very difficult and even under great circumstances is unlikely... I just want one while they can. Getting the best odds to do that is what I care about.

 

[flyfysher]

I've always thought Makar was a risky pick because the likely ceiling (read not absolute ceiling, but likely) was a player that fit either as a #2 or #3 as an offensively slanted defensemen. Taking that at the 4th pick is a risky move. You're betting that he becomes elite when taking that type of defensemen in the top 7/8 picks. Doesn't mean it can't work out and doesn't mean that Makar won't be all world, you're just putting a bet on a risky piece. The expectations on Makar are huge... we've seen 50+ thrown out a bunch and Calder nominations... He's talented enough to hit those, but people should really temper them. Even the best defensemen coming into the league have had a hard time crossing 40-45... it is expecting Makar to surpass that as a rookie and I'm of the ilk that would rather be pleasantly surprised and happy with a 45 point season versus being disappointed that he couldn't top Dahlin/Werenski numbers.

I'd agree about inflated expectations but look at who Makar is playing with and on the PP and in OT and you can understand why people think that way. But I do hear you so we'll just get to enjoy watching him play and prove himself.