Speculation: Our Contender Window

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Boston, Washington...

Literally every current cup contender has went through a retooling phase within the last 5 years where they missed the playoffs or struggled to get into the playoffs and were round 1 exits.

The only team where an argument could be had that they've basically been contenders for a legit 6-7-8+ year stretch would be the Penguins. The one team in the league who had the best player in the game, and the 2nd best player in the game for the last 15 years. Both of which, played the most important position in hockey to fill. AND, they are one of the best drafting teams in the league, especially when it comes to finding NHL talent late in the draft.


The real truth is that very, very few teams in the league actually hold contender status for longer than a handful of years. In a salary cap world it is incredibly difficult to maintain the right combination of high end skill and quality depth without running into significant cap issues after just a couple years with such a roster. The teams with the very best drafting ability are able to push those years longer than others, and in the Penguins case having the best player to play the game in a long time really helps. But otherwise, if your team gets 4 years in a row of being a legit contender(Division winner/Top 5 team in the league sort) and can win a cup in those few years... That's about as good a run as you can hope for.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

If the NHL continues its current playoff format, winning in the division is important for the playoffs.

The Central is a great division right now, but I’m not sure it’s going to stay that way. The Blues and Stars are both aging, while Chicago, Minnesota, and Nashville don’t have the young talent and prospects that the Avs do.

Out West I think you can look at Edmonton and Vancouver as the two teams that look the most talented and tough to beat as this window moves forward. Both of those teams are in the Pacific. Now obviously a lot can change with drafting and free agency, but long term it’s set up fairly well for the Avs.

A lot of the other teams with great young talent are in the Eastern Conference. The Rangers, Flyers, Hurricanes, Lightning, Leafs, Sabres are all out east.

Again, it’s impossible to predict what things will look like 3-4 years from now, but I’d say there are more talented teams in the other conference.

 

[Foppa2118]

In 4 years:

Mackinnon 28
Rantanen 27
Makar 25
Girard, 26
Byram 22
Newhook 23

I don't see why that team can't be a contender for at least another 2 years beyond that. Much older players than that have won Conn Smythe's and been dominant in the playoffs.

Exactly. The Avs will be able to build around that core, and it will be one of, if not the best in the league for longer than 3-4 years.

The Avs are on the Hawks rebuild path. They've been aiming for it for a while, but they've finally got the right group, at the right time. It took about three tries with three slightly different groups. Staz/Duchene era, Duchene/MacK era, and now the MacK/Makar era.

The Hawks were a legit Cup contender for 8 years. In 2008-09 they made the Conference finals. In 2016-17 they finished 1st in the West in the regular season.

During that 8 year span, the Hawks made the playoffs every year, won three Cups, and went to the Conference finals two other times.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Atleast 8 years imo, probably 10, possibly 12+

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Sakic set expiring contracts to coincide perfectly with extensions for guys like Landy/Mackinnon. EJ’s salary alone will almost be enough to make up for Nate’s raise. Even Makar will fit in comfortably with the new TV deal and Cole coming off the books + JTC/Donskoi being selected in expansion.

The kicker will be if Byram turns into what his ceiling projects. Possibly Newhook too if his freshman season is an indication of what’s to come. That’s potentially 15+M in second contract AAV for two guys who aren’t even in the NHL yet.

 

[Balthazar]

Sakic set expiring contracts to coincide perfectly with extensions for guys like Landy/Mackinnon. EJ’s salary alone will almost be enough to make up for Nate’s raise. Even Makar will fit in comfortably with the new TV deal and Cole coming off the books + JTC/Donskoi being selected in expansion.

The kicker will be if Byram turns into what his ceiling projects. Possibly Newhook too if his freshman season is an indication of what’s to come. That’s potentially 15+M in second contract AAV for two guys who aren’t even in the NHL yet.

How Landy's contract looks like will be a big factor. Everyone knows he's the next EJ.

 

[Foppa2118]

The kicker will be if Byram turns into what his ceiling projects. Possibly Newhook too if his freshman season is an indication of what’s to come. That’s potentially 15+M in second contract AAV for two guys who aren’t even in the NHL yet.

Not if they go bridge, which is what I'm expecting with this second wave on contracts. Get the current core guys under contract long term, then manage the cap with bridge deals.

Make another smart trade or two down the line, maybe some more bargain UFA's like Donskoi and Belly, and they can extend this window a really long time, while staying under the Cap.

The X factor will be goaltending. Both in terms of ability and how much they'll cost. Right now the goaltending isn't eating up very much cap at all, but that could change in the next couple years as they decide what to do with Grubauer.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Make another smart trade or two down the line, maybe some more bargain UFA's like Donskoi and Belly, and they can extend this window a really long time, while staying under the Cap.

I’m not sure if I’d consider Dong or Belly bargains. Especially Dong. Basically 4 mil for a 3rd liner.

 

[Foppa2118]

I’m not sure if I’d consider Dong or Belly bargains. Especially Dong. Basically 4 mil for a 3rd liner.

$3.9M for a good two way, middle six winger that had good chemistry with a 2nd line of Kadri and Bura, and was on pace for 42 points.

That's pretty good IMO. The kind of smart depth addition a Cup contender relies on.

Belly really solidified the forward group and allowed Bednar to roll 4 lines, which is needed in this day and age for a contender.

 

[The Abusement Park]

$3.9M for a good two way, middle six winger that had good chemistry with a 2nd line of Kadri and Bura, and was on pace for 42 points.

That's pretty good IMO. The kind of smart depth addition a Cup contender relies on.

Belly really solidified the forward group and allowed Bednar to roll 4 lines, which is needed in this day and age for a contender.

I don’t think it’s a bad contract at all. It’s just around market value. A 40 point 2 way winger will cost around 4mil a year nowadays.

 

[Foppa2118]

I don’t think it’s a bad contract at all. It’s just around market value. A 40 point 2 way winger will cost around 4mil a year nowadays.

I don't know I think a regular 40 point two way guy would cost more than $3.9M as a UFA today.

Even if you consider it market value, that's not usually what you get when you go to UFA. You usually need to dish out overpayments. So when a contender can add the final pieces in depth without tying up their cap with overpayments, that's a really good thing considering they're likely up against the Cap and don't have prospects or better trades available to fill that role.

I doubt Jersey was expecting more than 40 points out of Wayne Simmonds at this point in his career, and he got $5M last summer. Nyquist is a 40-50 point guy and he got $5.5M.

Donskoi had a bunch of games where he wasn't really himself after that concussion too, and could have got closer to 50 points. He only had 4 points in the final 21 games after his concussion. He had 29 points in the 44 games before. That's a 54 point pace prior to the concussion.