Orpik and Niskanen vs Two Potatos

[Midnight Judges]

I had no idea Brooks Orpik commanded the same $$$ and more contract years than Mike Ribeiro. They're almost the same age are they not? Ribs was a PPG C when he was here.

 

[Ridley Simon]

At least we have a GM that's willing to take risks? What kind of help is that if his moves are **** and crippling to the team's future?

Keep drinking the kool-aid.

No, he's right.

Without that risk taking persona you are stuck in no mans land (George). Caps weren't winning it with George. Period, end.

They needed a risk taker. Now they have one. Will see if he's the right guy, or not (and YES-- like George-- he will learn on the job).

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

No, he's right.

Without that risk taking persona you are stuck in no mans land (George). Caps weren't winning it with George. Period, end.

They needed a risk taker. Now they have one. Will see if he's the right guy, or not (and YES-- like George-- he will learn on the job).

You know, that is a fair point -and it'll be interesting to see how he handles the trade market in the next couple of months. Even if you make a mistake in free agency, if you're willing to take a risk you can try to fix it on the trade market.

 

[Coldplay619]

No, he's right.

Without that risk taking persona you are stuck in no mans land (George). Caps weren't winning it with George. Period, end.

They needed a risk taker. Now they have one. Will see if he's the right guy, or not (and YES-- like George-- he will learn on the job).

There's a difference between a calculated risk taker and a dumbass.

Niskanen is a risk.

Orpik is a disaster everyone can see coming.

 

[PucktotheHead]

There's a difference between a calculated risk taker and a dumbass.

Niskanen is a risk.

Orpik is a disaster everyone can see coming.

Many people declared Willie Mitchell signing in LA a stupid move and a waste of cap space. Look how that turned out.

For the record, I didn't want Orpik here. But the reality is he is here. Did they overpay? Yes they did. But isn't that how it goes in FA?? Is Clayton Stoner worth $13M??

Whether or not Orpik is a disaster remains to be seen. At 45 I learned a long time ago to not be knee jerk in my reactions. The proof will be in the pudding so to speak. Until the guy plays some games it's impossible, if not just plain ignorant, to pass judgement.

Who would you have signed instead? Ehrhoff we didn't have a chance with it seems. Subban wouldn't come here if you held a gun to his mother's head.

The Caps organizationally are totally new and have no track record. I'm just glad to see someone making moves that have a chance at improving the team that don't include not ready for NHL Dmen from Hershey. Playing those guys up here too early impedes their growth IMO.

Try being objective for a change.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Maybe I missed it because I haven't read through all the threads, but if any of you have posted an actual defense of these moves, with reasons why the Pens fans and the statistics shouldn't be believed, I'd really love to hear it. So far all I'm hearing is "but it's better than last year!"

Well in general, team fans should never be trusted in their player evaluations.

As far as the statistics, you'd have to present them for refutation. I don't know which ones you're referring to. I'll repeat my general comment about defensive analytics being generally useless, though.

 

[Coldplay619]

Many people declared Willie Mitchell signing in LA a stupid move and a waste of cap space. Look how that turned out.

For the record, I didn't want Orpik here. But the reality is he is here. Did they overpay? Yes they did. But isn't that how it goes in FA?? Is Clayton Stoner worth $13M??

Whether or not Orpik is a disaster remains to be seen. At 45 I learned a long time ago to not be knee jerk in my reactions. The proof will be in the pudding so to speak. Until the guy plays some games it's impossible, if not just plain ignorant, to pass judgement.

Who would you have signed instead? Ehrhoff we didn't have a chance with it seems. Subban wouldn't come here if you held a gun to his mother's head.

The Caps organizationally are totally new and have no track record. I'm just glad to see someone making moves that have a chance at improving the team that don't include not ready for NHL Dmen from Hershey. Playing those guys up here too early impedes their growth IMO.

Try being objective for a change.

Be objective?

I'm looking at the facts and the numbers.

Orpik is a 3rd pairing dman who's coming off yet another surgery at 33 that we just gave number one money to.

We went one level above overpaying looking at the contracts other dmen got.

This is our last window with the best player this franchise has ever had and we just anchored ourself to Tom Poti 2.0 for five years at $5.5 million.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Be objective?

I'm looking at the facts and the numbers.

Orpik is a 3rd pairing dman who's coming off yet another surgery at 33 that we just gave number one money to.

We went one level above overpaying looking at the contracts other dmen got.

This is our last window with the best player this franchise has ever had and we just anchored ourself to Tom Poti 2.0 for five years at $5.5 million.

Pens fans opinion are not fact. Here's one fact, both guys are way better than anyone not named Carlson or Alzner. In other words, both significant upgrades.

Yes the Orpik contract is a risk due to length, but if you want free agents to come, you have to beat your competitions offer.

I'm amazed at the amount of *****ing and moaning. The team finally sticks its neck out to upgrade an area of deficiency in the team for 10+ years and fans still cry.

Let's wait and see the on-ice product before you go proclaiming how foolish it all is. You may be right, but it's way to early to start predicting how this all ends. And no, $5.5 per is NOT #1 money, especially not UFA #1 money, not even close.

 

[Hivemind]

Responding to a few posts. Will hopefully have time for my full thoughts, later.

It's interesting how this board works, sometimes. Plenty don't want to judge Niskanen based on one season, but want to do so with Orpik and Stralman.

It's been more than one season with Orpik and Stralman.
http://www.mc79hockey.com/2014/05/anton-stralman-secret-star/
http://www.pensburgh.com/2014/6/5/5769944/evaluating-defensemen-paul-martin
http://www.pensburgh.com/2013/7/11/...ve-something-to-prove-to-pittsburgh-penguins/
http://cityofchampionssports.com/20...ve-something-to-prove-to-pittsburgh-penguins/

These two signings are so different, it's not appropriate to analyze them together. One is good to excellent, the other bad to terrible.

How is the Niskanen signing good to excellent? At best, it's paying market value for a James Wisniewski/Dennis Wideman-type player that's redundant behind Green and Carlson. At worst, it's paying that money for a player who regresses away from their career year into being a 3rd pairing defenseman again.

Well, obviously I'd prefer us signing better and cheaper players, but let's be reality: we're not an attractive franchise, so to get there and to improve the team, we have to overpay. Just at least overpay the right players...

In large part, I agree. However I have to think that Ovechkin still has appeal to a lot of players, and the fact that Fayne took a value deal with Edmonton shows you don't always have to overpay to get players to come to lesser situations. Regardless, overpaying the wrong players is obviously the wrong choice.

 

[Langway]

Breaking: possession stats don't flatter non-possession defenseman. Analytics will seemingly rarely support a decision to employ multiple defensive-defensemen or to pay them at a high rate.

Someone send that memo to Los Angeles, though, because they routinely iced two and had three on their roster. The problem IMO is the Caps have no Jake Muzzin (or Drew Doughty but let's leave that one aside for now). They have no all-situations LD that can do a little bit of everything next to their top gun so that their top pair really keeps the game flowing in the right direction. It isn't so much that alone Orpik is an issue IMO, it's that they're going to have both Orpik and Alzner in the top 4 now and it's a bit redundant. That's unless Alzner can develop more puck poise and a more assertive offensive game, of which I'm more than a little skeptical. We'll see just how much Trotz and Reirden can develop their breakouts and the games of each individual defenseman but the makeup of the top 4 remains questionable ultimately. That might still be good enough to compete in the East given how low the standard is but it remains iffy.

 

[Ridley Simon]

There's a difference between a calculated risk taker and a dumbass.

Niskanen is a risk.

Orpik is a disaster everyone can see coming.

From where we sit, sure.

From where they sit? I read that they wanted Orpik for his intangibles more than anything else (locker room, and VET presence to uplift the young d-men, of which we are counting on 3)

If he makes Carlson, Alzner, and Orlov all better, is he still wildly overpaid? I get that its a coaches job to do that heavy lifting...but it seems to be vastly underrated around these parts how sorely these guys have missed that vet presence (on D). I've been clamouring for it for years, as have others.

Now they have allegedly one of the best in the business at it. How good might Green be if he had someone like that for years (not months). Someone who actually has accomplished something?

If they Cap bumps up to 75m in 2 years, will this contract be such an albatross? As I stated a few times, I would have paid max 4.5m. But I also do NOT (nor do you) know the dynamics in the room, and what Orpik may be able to do long term to fix it. Trotz needed players that personified his ethics and codes. Orpik may be "that guy".

We are also ignoring GMBM's comments about everyone wanting Orpik. Could be smoke and mirrors, could be true.

In the end, I am very happy that the Caps have a top 10 defense (IMO). They are finally set up to succeed there, which is a refreshing change from the previous 15 years.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Responding to a few posts. Will hopefully have time for my full thoughts, later.

How is the Niskanen signing good to excellent? At best, it's paying market value for a James Wisniewski/Dennis Wideman-type player that's redundant behind Green and Carlson. At worst, it's paying that money for a player who regresses away from their career year into being a 3rd pairing defenseman again.

In large part, I agree. However I have to think that Ovechkin still has appeal to a lot of players, and the fact that Fayne took a value deal with Edmonton shows you don't always have to overpay to get players to come to lesser situations. Regardless, overpaying the wrong players is obviously the wrong choice.

Redundant behind Green and Carlson? Are you still stuck in Adam Oates' Righty/Lefty system? Chances are Green is now redundant if anything. I'll believe it when I see that Green is stealing time from Niskanen if he's still on the roster at all. There are so many options now, something the Caps haven't had in forever.

RE: Fayne - I see no sense in looking at a deal in a vacuum like his and suggesting Washington could have done something similar. For all we know they had no interest in the player and it's a non-starter from the get go.

 

[Carlzner]

Redundant behind Green and Carlson? Are you still stuck in Adam Oates' Righty/Lefty system? Chances are Green is now redundant if anything. I'll believe it when I see that Green is stealing time from Niskanen if he's still on the roster at all. There are so many options now, something the Caps haven't had in forever.

RE: Fayne - I see no sense in looking at a deal in a vacuum like his and suggesting Washington could have done something similar. For all we know they had no interest in the player and it's a non-starter from the get go.

Which would be a problem, not an excuse to end the argument. From all of the reports leading up to free agency, it seems like we has our sights set on these two guys, and didn't budge despite the buyouts and trade candidates. The only other report I saw was contacting Boyle's agent, but not much interest beyond that.

One of the biggest criticisms of Pittsburgh in the past few seasons is their poor defense, and these are two defenseman that both their fanbase and management were more than happy to get rid of.

 

[PucktotheHead]

Be objective?

I'm looking at the facts and the numbers.

Orpik is a 3rd pairing dman who's coming off yet another surgery at 33 that we just gave number one money to.

We went one level above overpaying looking at the contracts other dmen got.

This is our last window with the best player this franchise has ever had and we just anchored ourself to Tom Poti 2.0 for five years at $5.5 million.

What "facts"? All I see is speculation. How is it that Orpik is not Tom Poti?? You have a interesting way of viewing things.

Who would you have signed if you were GM? Stoner? Subban? Strahlman? Ehrhoff? Kostka? Boyle? Weaver? I am interested in who is worth the money in a free agent market where a lot of players were overpaid.

Why is it Reirden wanted Orpik here if he is washed up? Don't you think that would make him look pretty bad to stand up in front of a new employer and endorse a guy who only a "dumbass" would sign?

 

[Carlzner]

What "facts"? All I see is speculation. How is it that Orpik is not Tom Poti?? You have a interesting way of viewing things.

Who would you have signed if you were GM? Stoner? Subban? Strahlman? Ehrhoff? Kostka? Boyle? Weaver? I am interested in who is worth the money in a free agent market where a lot of players were overpaid.

Why is it Reirden wanted Orpik here if he is washed up? Don't you think that would make him look pretty bad to stand up in front of a new employer and endorse a guy who only a "dumbass" would sign?

Why is Reirdan regarded as some amazing coach? The guy was the defensive coach on a team where Defense was a huge problem. And we nabbed the two cast offs from that same team.

 

[PucktotheHead]

Which would be a problem, not an excuse to end the argument. From all of the reports leading up to free agency, it seems like we has our sights set on these two guys, and didn't budge despite the buyouts and trade candidates. The only other report I saw was contacting Boyle's agent, but not much interest beyond that.

One of the biggest criticisms of Pittsburgh in the past few seasons is their poor defense, and these are two defenseman that both their fanbase and management were more than happy to get rid of.

I don't follow the Pens that much but didn't they have a ton of injuries in their D corps and were playing AHL guys like the Caps?

 

[PucktotheHead]

Why is Reirdan regarded as some amazing coach? The guy was the defensive coach on a team where Defense was a huge problem. And we nabbed the two cast offs from that same team.

No idea. I don't think he is an "amazing" coach. I don't know the guy. See my previous post.

So you don't think the Pens had any interest in resigning either guy? Orpik maybe not but Niskanen? I'm not sure about that. Again, I don't follow the Pens that close but it seems unlikely they were okay with him walking. Looking at Capgeek they had roughly 10 free agents to deal with and $8M in cap space couldn't sign them all. I think they expected Niskanen to move due to the price he would command. Calling him a "cast off" is laughable.

 

[ChibiPooky]

From Orpik's interview, it's pretty clear that he chose to leave. Given what the Penguins had on the blue line before signing Ehrhoff, I don't see that feeling being mutual.

 

[RandyHolt]

Why is Reirdan regarded as some amazing coach? The guy was the defensive coach on a team where Defense was a huge problem. And we nabbed the two cast offs from that same team.

I have been wondering the same thing.

I think we nabbed him because we wanted a voice from outside the room.

Only, that voice seemed to carry a ton of weight not commiserate with his pay grade.

 

[HunterSThompson]

Which would be a problem, not an excuse to end the argument. From all of the reports leading up to free agency, it seems like we has our sights set on these two guys, and didn't budge despite the buyouts and trade candidates. The only other report I saw was contacting Boyle's agent, but not much interest beyond that.

From MacLellan's mouth on trade opportunities:

“There was stuff I would’ve liked to have been involved in that I wasn’t, but there’s other areas where I didn’t think it was an upgrade for our team. I thought we could go the free agency route with the two guys we got. I thought that was the better play to make.”

Sometimes the team doesn't call you, or the player won't waive for you. Other times the juice isn't worth the squeeze. I am not saying he is right to think Orpik is better than Gorges or Niskanen is better than Fayne or whatever, but that may be what he thinks.

 

[Caps8112]

Def have come down off the ledge. Hate the money and term on Orpik but who knows maybe an offseason of rest and training differently acknowledging that he is older will produce a decent dman. Happy with Nisk. And as people said above glad we have a gm that will make a move. He has to have something else in mind for 2nd line center too.

If we dont trade Green atleast that will keep Erskine out of the lineup most nights hopefully.

 

[txpd]

Why is Reirdan regarded as some amazing coach? The guy was the defensive coach on a team where Defense was a huge problem. And we nabbed the two cast offs from that same team.

Niskanen is a cast off?

 

[Langway]

From Orpik's interview, it's pretty clear that he chose to leave. Given what the Penguins had on the blue line before signing Ehrhoff, I don't see that feeling being mutual.

Pittsburgh has wanted to go younger on D for a while now so pretty unlikely they were going to pay market value for Orpik or Niskanen. Now they'll see how much Maatta can handle and give opportunities to guys like Despres, Pouliot and Bortuzzo.

 

[txpd]

I have been wondering the same thing.

I think we nabbed him because we wanted a voice from outside the room.

Only, that voice seemed to carry a ton of weight not commiserate with his pay grade.

I think its a good idea to see the Nashville connection to all this rather than seeing it thru a Pittsburgh spectrum.

Shero has a Nashville connection with Trotz. You can make a case that Shero was recommending Rierden and Orpik and Niskanen. Meanwhile its very likely Poile had input that reflected at the least on Orpik.

Meanwhile Niskanen may have had input on Rierden as well as Oprik. Was Rierden hired before Orpik got his in person interview with Leonsis and company?

I am banking that Shero, Poile, Trotz, and Rierden painted a picture that the Caps very young group of defensemen needed that particular guy in the locker room, on the ice, on the practice ice, on the charter and so on.

I don't at all see this as Rierden calling the shots

 

[ChibiPooky]

Pittsburgh has wanted to go younger on D for a while now so pretty unlikely they were going to pay market value for Orpik or Niskanen. Now they'll see how much Maatta can handle and give opportunities to guys like Despres, Pouliot and Bortuzzo.

Pouliot and Maatta likely won't be active to start the season, though, and it's a big question mark how much Scuderi has left in the tank. Ehrhoff bailed them out big time.