News Article: O'Reilly for Poeling + 2nd +... Would you have done it?

[Maitz]

Nope. And glad they didn't do it. I like ROR but I think Poehling may end up becoming the Habs' ROR at some point.

If I understood correctly, they were asking for Poehling + a 2nd in one offer and there was another involving the 3rd Overall + more. Or various variations involving all those pieces.

Also on the Poehling note, MB mentioned that at the draft, Minnesota offered a roster player that could jump into the Habs line-up immediately for their 26th pick. When Habs saw that Poehling was falling to them, they opted to keep the pick and select Poehling. Fletcher told MB later that Poehling was the player they wanted to move up for.

Worth noting that when Habs and Sabres were taking trade, Poehling was Habs' best prospect, and best center prospect. Reason to believe they knew they would add Kotkaniemi, but he wasn't selected yet. And they had no idea Suzuki would also end up in the organization. And I think for the future, Habs were smart to hold onto Poehling.

If I remember that player from Minnesota was Scandella.

 

[Adam Michaels]

If I remember that player from Minnesota was Scandella.

Makes sense.

 

[Gravity]

Wouldn't do this trade, not even close. Need to keep the youth movement.

 

[Chili]

I believe Buffalo got Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, Tage Thompson, a first-round pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, and a second-round pick in the 2021 NHL Draft .

Can speculate on an equivalent Habs package but would have required at least one more significant piece added to Poehling and a second rounder, probably a first round pick.

Risky business trading future first rounders, even if you lottery protect for one year (as the Sens have found out) because you don't know exactly what you're dealing away.

I like O'Reilly but depends on the cost and what the goal is, compete now or are they building towards something down the road? Seems like the latter was chosen which makes sense to me.

 

[montreal]

In terms of trade value that would be a big win for the habs, but a rebuilding team is better of keeping young assets and letting them develop. So id say No to the offer.

that's how i see it, while we don't know what the plus was, the Habs are in no shape to trade a prospect picked in the 1st round and a high 2nd plus whatever else just to get a few more wins. So we get ROR and maybe we make the playoffs but with that defense and lack of goal scorers it would be hard to make it out of the 1st round. Granted we don't know what this team would have meant for the Pac trade.

 

[G0bias]

But Casey Mittlestadt and his 9 NHL games is a #1 center?

O'Reilly's ppg over the past 7 years is 0.75, Jeff Carter's over the same period is 0.74. Yet you want me to believe Carter is a #1 center and O'Reilly isn't?

On the surface, points wouldn't tell you ROR isn't a 1C.
But simply put, his team doesn't score when he's on the ice. They barely average 2 goals/60 at even strength when he's out there, heck he didn't even reach that last year. And that's been the case for the past couple years. Sorry but if your number one center is on the ice for over 1000 ES minutes and generating that little, that team is going nowhere.

Mittelstadt is one of the best prospects around, let alone centers. He definitely has that potential. And yes, since we're talking about the cup, Carter was absolutely a #1 when they won. He was out there alot and his line generated alot. Something that can't be said for ROR in the past few years. Hell even at the ripe old age of 32 he did better than ROR.

 

[WhiskeySeven*]

Although I generally agree, the major difference is age. O'Reilly might only give that level of play for 5-7 years, Poehling could potentially give it to you for 10-12 years.

Or ~5 years and then traded for an inferior player four years older.

 

[yianik]

If I remember that player from Minnesota was Scandella.

I remember hearing MB was looking at Scandella

 

[Tyson]

Poehling is too intriguing to trade at this point. This kid is going to be a good NHLer sooner rather than later

 

[BrendanGallagher11]

Bergevin is a genius

 

[Teufelsdreck]

I anticipate that Poehling can become the best defensive center...what Plekanec used to be, so I'm opposed to trading him for someone the Habs can pick up or develop. Drouin was fool's gold. The Habs can't afford to take seemingly attractive risks that could be a mirage.

Whom can the Habs afford to offer? Shaw, certainly, and Hudon't. Scherbak? Perhaps, but I'd wait awhile. Draft picks? That would be premature because it's uncertain where the Habs will finish this season.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I do the deal based on the fact we get a player that none of the assets we give up will ever amount to ROR whether rebuilding or not, rebuilding doesn't mean your team needs to be completely devoid of skill. I'm not a fan of this deferred winning, you end up as perceptual losers more often than not. I'd make the deal tomorrow.

 

[montreal]

I do the deal based on the fact we get a player that none of the assets we give up will ever amount to ROR whether rebuilding or not, rebuilding doesn't mean your team needs to be completely devoid of skill. I'm not a fan of this deferred winning, you end up as perceptual losers more often than not. I'd make the deal tomorrow.

why though, what is the goal in getting ROR, so you win a few more games, give up a 1st round prospect and at least a high 2nd round plus you will now draft later in what could be an outstanding draft. Now if you think the Habs will be a contending team in say the next 3 years, it makes more sense but if not what are you going to achieve by hurting the rebuild to get a player that won't be able to take the Habs far in the playoffs if they even would be able to make it with him.

 

[Scintillating10]

Interesting piece in the Athletic this morning where, in an interview with M. Bergevin done at the beginning of the season, Montreal GM says that Botteril was asking for Ryan Poeling, 2nd round pick, "+" for Ryan O'Reilly.

From Poehling to Price: why Marc Bergevin's plan must...



Canadiens felt the price was too high and backed off.

Let's say Botteril called back and said he would have done O'Reilly for Poeling + 2nd (#35 in 2018).

Would you have done it?

If ROR was the piece to put us over I would do your trade. But he would just wreck our draft position. We need another Koktaniemi. If we were close to a cup I would give up 2 first picks for him though.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

why though, what is the goal in getting ROR, so you win a few more games, give up a 1st round prospect and at least a high 2nd round plus you will now draft later in what could be an outstanding draft. Now if you think the Habs will be a contending team in say the next 3 years, it makes more sense but if not what are you going to achieve by hurting the rebuild to get a player that won't be able to take the Habs far in the playoffs if they even would be able to make it with him.

Incremental improvements, nothing says to rebuild all the assets need to come in at once. ROR doesn't bring us out of the basement on his own. I actually believe we can turn this thing around quickly, with ROR were still likely a lottery picking team this year, and if we kotka/ror/danault plus next years high end pick to focus on a high end left d instead of still needing another high end center. I think that sets us up better than Kotka/poehling/danault/ plus another center likely. Admittedly I don't feel Poehling will ever be as good as ROR. If you can't turn around quickly enough, ROR can always be turned into more assets after you re-assess in a couple years.

 

[A Loyal Dog]

If I remember that player from Minnesota was Scandella.

It makes no sense that Scandella was finally traded for two 4th line scrubs in the end.

 

[Deluded Puck]

Nope, we need to aim to have a group of players who can hopefully peak together in the next 4-5 years.

 

[WhiskeySeven*]

Nope, we need to aim to have a group of players who can hopefully peak together in the next 4-5 years.

Peak to what point?

Which of them will be a 70 point player? 80 point player? 90 point player? I don't see any top-end talent on the team, neither do most people. I mean some say that Drouin is "a good centreman" away from hitting 80 points but that's not reasonable.

So it's either "Vegas/Moneyball" model or just more of the same. Not even the Colorado/New Jersey renaissance model, because both those teams have at least one high-end player. The Habs have zero and will likely not have a single one unless one of Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, and Poehling exceed expectations and projections. And knowing how Montreal develops players (badly) and how Montreal insists on their players to play ("two-way", defensively, anti-puck possession-ly) I doubt we'll see any one of them really soar to near PPG and sustain that pace reliably.

Drouin is a head case and borderline bust as a 3rd overall (in his 5th professional season, hasn't hit even 30g/60 points), Kotkaniemi is projected to be a two-way smart forward (perhaps as good as O'Rielly), Suzuki might be great but who knows many CHL stars didn't sustain it at the NHL level, and Poehling is another player whose best projection is supposedly an O'Rielly-type.

If O'Rielly is a 2nd line player and nothing to write home about, why is this core (with 1 established NHL, 1 rookie, and 2 non-pros) praised so much? Toronto has three legit 70+ players and they're still not cup favourites. The Habs have nobody elite on D and nobody elite as a D prospect either, so it's not like the Habs have a different but just as good make-up.

The rebuild isn't over... and we can't even rebuild right with Weber and Price and the organization's interest in remaining competitive and not out-right tanking (something I actually agree with). It's a really bad place to be, imo.

 

[montreal]

Incremental improvements, nothing says to rebuild all the assets need to come in at once. ROR doesn't bring us out of the basement on his own. I actually believe we can turn this thing around quickly, with ROR were still likely a lottery picking team this year, and if we kotka/ror/danault plus next years high end pick to focus on a high end left d instead of still needing another high end center. I think that sets us up better than Kotka/poehling/danault/ plus another center likely. Admittedly I don't feel Poehling will ever be as good as ROR. If you can't turn around quickly enough, ROR can always be turned into more assets after you re-assess in a couple years.

If they can turn it around quickly then it does make sense, I don't think they can depending on the blueline and how quickly they can rebuild it and what the young guys do in Brook, Mete, Juulsen and if we hit on at least one of Fleury, Harris, Romanov.

My problem is the lack of high end talent. I think that we are in a great spot from the '18, '19 and '20 drafts to get that high end talent. Then hopefully be a cup contender by around the '24-'25 season depending on so many factors like MB getting fired, a new president, finding a great GM, one of the new hired coaches takes over for CJ and excels, improved development, better asset management, nail at least one or two big trades instead of losing high end talent like Subban, Sergachev, etc..

There's so many ifs and who knows what will happen, we just missed getting the great D prospect by 2 spots, and with the new lotto rules it's even harder to pull it off but this summers draft could be a big one and could change the future of the organization by a lot.

On the other hand, I agree I don't think Poehling will be better then ROR, as I would be shocked if he can put up that kind of production although it's still way too early to say as you have a 1st round pick that his draft year he was in a league he shouldn't have been and struggled badly and the next year when he was more age appropriate he was one of the best 18 year olds in the league. So now we need to see how much he continues to progress or not.

With Price, Weber (if his injuries don't slow him down more), if Drouin were to get more help on top of a ROR, perhaps he turns into a 60-70 pt player but who knows there. Then you would need Mete, Reilly, Juulsen to all be at their best, Price to be back to form for the next several years. It could have worked if many things went right for us. I don't trust MB at all to be able to fix this but it is possible that the trade could have put us on the path as long as other things went right but we would still need more high end talent and without the high draft pick that's going to be very hard to do as we've seen for the last 25 years since we so rarely have a top 5/10/15 pick over that span.

 

[G0bias]

Which of them will be a 70 point player? 80 point player? 90 point player? I don't see any top-end talent on the team, neither do most people. I mean some say that Drouin is "a good centreman" away from hitting 80 points but that's not reasonable.

The Habs have zero and will likely not have a single one unless one of Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, and Poehling exceed expectations and projections.

Kotkaniemi is projected to be a two-way smart forward (perhaps as good as O'Rielly),

Yeah... you're selling Kotkaniemi short if he's not a top-end talent and "perhaps as good as O'Reilly...a 2nd line player and nothing to write home about".

If anything, his play has only convinced more people who were on the other side of the fence, that he's a high end talent. Will he develop into one, that's up to the team and him to make it happen but there's no question he's one of the best prospects in the league.

Agreed on the general sense of your post, what we currently have doesn't cut it and we're still a few years picking high from saying done.

 

[WhiskeySeven*]

Yeah... you're selling Kotkaniemi short if he's not a top-end talent and "perhaps as good as O'Reilly...a 2nd line player and nothing to write home about".

If anything, his play has only convinced more people who were on the other side of the fence, that he's a high end talent. Will he develop into one, that's up to the team and him to make it happen but there's no question he's one of the best prospects in the league.

Agreed on the general sense of your post, what we currently have doesn't cut it and we're still a few years picking high from saying done.

Kotkaniemi is a great prospect but prospects rarely fulfill the entirety of their potential. If he does, that's fantastic - but would you bet real money on it?

Would you bet money on the Bergevin Habs developing a 80 point player?

And that's ONE player.

Much less the 2ish + good PMD you need for a good team.

 

[G0bias]

Kotkaniemi is a great prospect but prospects rarely fulfill the entirety of their potential.

Okay. You can say this for any prospect great or bad, what's your point?
You said yourself we needed more top-end talents. How else are we going to get them? Free agency - good luck with that. Trades - lol. Which leaves drafting... you guessed it prospects.

If he does, that's fantastic - but would you bet real money on it?
Would you bet money on the Bergevin Habs developing a 80 point player?

That's different. You're no longer talking about the type of player Kotkaniemi is. You're talking about Bergevin and the team's inability to develop players. I'm well aware of their shortcomings in that regard. But this question doesn't move the discussion anywhere, you could ask me the same for Jack Hughes or Dahlin or other any star prospect.

My point was about Kotkaniemi's talent. What they do with him I have no idea, can they screw it up? Entirely possible. Atleast you've come around on your initial take on him.

And that's ONE player.

Much less the 2ish + good PMD you need for a good team.

Absolutely, we need more. We'll have enough when we know we have too many.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

If they can turn it around quickly then it does make sense, I don't think they can depending on the blueline and how quickly they can rebuild it and what the young guys do in Brook, Mete, Juulsen and if we hit on at least one of Fleury, Harris, Romanov.

My problem is the lack of high end talent. I think that we are in a great spot from the '18, '19 and '20 drafts to get that high end talent. Then hopefully be a cup contender by around the '24-'25 season depending on so many factors like MB getting fired, a new president, finding a great GM, one of the new hired coaches takes over for CJ and excels, improved development, better asset management, nail at least one or two big trades instead of losing high end talent like Subban, Sergachev, etc..

There's so many ifs and who knows what will happen, we just missed getting the great D prospect by 2 spots, and with the new lotto rules it's even harder to pull it off but this summers draft could be a big one and could change the future of the organization by a lot.

On the other hand, I agree I don't think Poehling will be better then ROR, as I would be shocked if he can put up that kind of production although it's still way too early to say as you have a 1st round pick that his draft year he was in a league he shouldn't have been and struggled badly and the next year when he was more age appropriate he was one of the best 18 year olds in the league. So now we need to see how much he continues to progress or not.

With Price, Weber (if his injuries don't slow him down more), if Drouin were to get more help on top of a ROR, perhaps he turns into a 60-70 pt player but who knows there. Then you would need Mete, Reilly, Juulsen to all be at their best, Price to be back to form for the next several years. It could have worked if many things went right for us. I don't trust MB at all to be able to fix this but it is possible that the trade could have put us on the path as long as other things went right but we would still need more high end talent and without the high draft pick that's going to be very hard to do as we've seen for the last 25 years since we so rarely have a top 5/10/15 pick over that span.

I don't disagree with much of what you say here. I certainly don't think MB should be the man in charge to lead this process, however, if it was him who was pulling the strings this summer I like the moves he made to surround himself with better people in Bouchard/Ducharme, whether that turns into positive results remains to be seen. The Domi trade is growing on me, I don't think he has the goal scoring prowess of Chucky, but he's better just about everywhere else, a great passer and a great skater. Love the Armia deal and even CJ looks like he's learned a lesson. He's got the boys flying out there playing a high tempo, puck possession game. Kotka looks like a beast imo.

Claude is funny, because tactically I find he's a pretty good coach, has a good system and his teams are usually good puck possession teams, but he has too many Therrienism's for me, especially his bench management, I was happy when we hired him, moreso because Therrien was gone than any excitement I had for Claude, but I think Claude is a pretty good coach, I mean lets face it, he hasn't been handed much to work with. He wouldn't have been my first choice, but he doesn't cost the team games imo. Don't often like his approach to the younger kids, but most NHL coaches have their love affairs with the weirdest players and tend to overthink things rather than get out of the way and let the boys play, but overall, I think CJ is a smart enough guy to adjust.

We're a young team and we do lack some high end game breaking talent, no question there, but I think Kotka and next years pick will help resolve those issues and imo ROR would fit in well on an up and coming team. You can afford some veteran contracts when you have some young talent coming in on Entry level deals. I feel were quite close to having a competitive team again. Juulsen/Mete look to be coming along nicely and I have extremely high hopes for Brook. He's going to be a keeper imo, plus I believe if you have enough talent upfront you can get away with a defense by committee type of D. We've got the right side solidified if we want to Keep Petry/Weber/Juulsen, we just need to cut the deadweight in Benn/Alzner/Ouelette. With a ROR deal we could easily use next years pick to sure up the left side, now they might go center again. But a D core of Weber/Petry/Mete/Juulsen/Brook/Reilly in a couple years still doesn't look terrible imo, plus we have some cap space to go out and get a 3 or even 2 3's if need be.

I like some of our forwards to be honest. I'm big fans of Lehkonen/Hudon, they're obviously not game breakers, but they are smart 2 way guys who can move up and down the lineup in case of injuries. I like Domi/Gallagher/Kotka/Byron. Small group and no real game breakers, we might have difficulty in shootouts with this bunch too, but I think another year of sucking and grabbing one more high end talent puts us back in pretty good position if a guy like Brook pans out. Lots of question marks for sure, but the team is pretty young.

 

[WhiskeySeven*]

Okay. You can say this for any prospect great or bad, what's your point?
You said yourself we needed more top-end talents. How else are we going to get them? Free agency - good luck with that. Trades - lol. Which leaves drafting... you guessed it prospects.

The point is to consider Kotkaniemi's best, very best. Is he a 70 point player? 80? 90? What do you think? I'm simply arguing that this team doesn't have enough players to potentially hit that mark, much less actually sustain such production. This team won't even be a Cup threat even with Kotkaniemi and Poehling hitting their mark - at the time of the trade, they were our only two forward prospects worth thinking about.

That's different. You're no longer talking about the type of player Kotkaniemi is. You're talking about Bergevin and the team's inability to develop players. I'm well aware of their shortcomings in that regard. But this question doesn't move the discussion anywhere, you could ask me the same for Jack Hughes or Dahlin or other any star prospect.

My point was about Kotkaniemi's talent. What they do with him I have no idea, can they screw it up? Entirely possible. Atleast you've come around on your initial take on him.

I am bearish on every Habs player because of the organization. I think the longer Kotkaniemi is with the Habs right now, the less likely it is for him to become an elite forward, if there was any chance of that ever.

Absolutely, we need more. We'll have enough when we know we have too many.

Likely won't happen if they draft in the mid-teens this year. Also they haven't changed anyone in their development staff either. So we're essentially churning through one generation of mid-tier middle sixers with little effective talent for another.

 

[Habs]

Its funny how under-appreciated ROR is, considering what he has done on awful teams. He would be this teams best player by a country mile, but somehow 'super prospect' Poehling is going to be a better fit for this team. LOL, gotta love it.

Hey lets keep looking for more Peca's, Plekaneks and Danaults, that will take us far into the rebuild.