News Article: O'Reilly for Poeling + 2nd +... Would you have done it?

[The Great Weal]

What we would lack in star power up front we make up for by having the best goalie in the league. ROR-Kotkaniemi would be a very good top 6 C. Kotkaniemi has a good chance of becoming that star #1 C too and ROR would be better than most of the 2nd line centers.

 

[Goldenhands]

I wouldnt have made that deal... No way the Habs can compete with the best teams in the league for a whole season with ROR and a young Kotkaniemi as our top 2 centers... we would be a borderline playoffs team at the very best and I think the org. has stagnated long enough, we need another early pick and Poehling is going to be a very good player...

 

[BaseballCoach]

To me it boils down to ROR being a bonafide top 2 centre while Poehling is still technically a question mark. Would have probably done it. ROR still has enough miles in him that i'd be OK giving up the youth.

ROR has 5 years left on his deal, but it's a slightly pricey one for a 2C. And I'm not sure he is the best team player, but I admit I don't really know.

As good as Poehling might become, he will probably not be better than Ryan O'Reilly so unless the cap hit is a dealbreaker, I suppose a 27 yo guy signed for 5 years is young enough to not reject it, even with the mid-high second pick on top.

But I'm also ok with not having done it. Especially since the cost might have been more than just Poehling and a 2nd.

 

[G0bias]

Then I'm not sure what your point is, O'Reilly would fit in with every #2 you listed. So your argument is nonsense, either O'Reilly helps us stack up against the power houses, or those groups you listed also don't stack up.

EDIT: And for the record, 99th percentile or bust was your argument. O'Reilly doesn't make us instantly contenders, therefore no point in getting him

Then we hold a different opinion of ROR.

Most if not all of those teams boast two #1 Cs. I don't consider ROR one, even on the lower spectrum.

 

[G0bias]

Most of those teams don't have the depth that we do

Those examples were in response to the idea that the likelihood of getting two high quality centers is non-existent.

Clearly other teams have done it. I don't know why it should be different for us. I mean all they have to do is not do anything stupid and we could very well come out with exactly that by the end of the year with one of Hughes, Dach, Cozens, Turcotte to go with Jesperi.

 

[Habsawce]

I'd rather a shot at Jack Hughes. He changes the game for this franchise, just need some lucky bingo balls.

 

[HOPE]

No way i do that deal for couple of simple reasons

1: Getting RoR means Keeping patch, wich we got younger and a good return for.
2: Getting RoR means keep being mediocre, draft later, be older, When RoR starts to decline, Kotka starts his prime and we are stock in the same routine we've been forever (Decent but not good enough)
3: I'm not saying the chances of Poehling becoming as good as RoR or better is HIGH, but it's not out of the question and peohling is 8 years younger.

Result: Nah i'd rather gamble on Poehling, Ylonen +, while being super young, than stay mediocre for ever and be stuck in the same routine we've been for years.


PS: no knock on RoR, just not a fit at where we are and should be.

 

[OnTheRun]

Interesting piece in the Athletic this morning where, in an interview with M. Bergevin done at the beginning of the season, Montreal GM says that Botteril was asking for Ryan Poeling, 2nd round pick, "+" for Ryan O'Reilly.

From Poehling to Price: why Marc Bergevin's plan must...



Canadiens felt the price was too high and backed off.

Let's say Botteril called back and said he would have done O'Reilly for Poeling + 2nd (#35 in 2018).

Would you have done it?

Funny how Bergevin story changed from 3 1st round picks to Poehling + 2nd round pick + unknown within the span of ~3 months.

Anyways, regardless of the asked price, I don't do it because it bring us back to bubble team status and I don't want that.

 

[Sorinth]

Then we hold a different opinion of ROR.

Most if not all of those teams boast two #1 Cs. I don't consider ROR one, even on the lower spectrum.

But Casey Mittlestadt and his 9 NHL games is a #1 center?

O'Reilly's ppg over the past 7 years is 0.75, Jeff Carter's over the same period is 0.74. Yet you want me to believe Carter is a #1 center and O'Reilly isn't?

 

[Sorinth]

No way i do that deal for couple of simple reasons

1: Getting RoR means Keeping patch, wich we got younger and a good return for.
2: Getting RoR means keep being mediocre, draft later, be older, When RoR starts to decline, Kotka starts his prime and we are stock in the same routine we've been forever (Decent but not good enough)
3: I'm not saying the chances of Poehling becoming as good as RoR or better is HIGH, but it's not out of the question and peohling is 8 years younger.

Result: Nah i'd rather gamble on Poehling, Ylonen +, while being super young, than stay mediocre for ever and be stuck in the same routine we've been for years.


PS: no knock on RoR, just not a fit at where we are and should be.

Ideally if we traded for ROR we would've still traded Pacioretty but for a young NHL ready D.

But all the reasons you listed are also reasons to say trade Weber, Price, Petry, Byron. So chances are we are going to still be stuck being mediocre regardless.

 

[Hostile Offer]

I would've done it, kind of surprising to me how much Poehling is valued around the league.

 

[Dominator13]

So the whole time that was the asking price? Why did everyone say that Buffalo wasn't pulling the trigger without the 3rd overall pick?

I'm not sure I would of pulled the trigger either. We needed that complete rebuild and Poehling is going to be a fantastic 2-way player for us. He's probably going to center USA's n.1 line and his stock will skyrocket.

 

[WhiskeySeven*]

Insane, to me, why anybody wouldn't have done that deal?!

ROR would've been the best forward this team had since, I dunno, Kovalev. And he's young, and he plays a perfect two way game.

Yes I would've done it with my eyes closed.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I would've done it, kind of surprising to me how much Poehling is valued around the league.

Centers that show any promise whatsoever have a lot of value around the league. Funny that.

We should probably only draft wingers and goalies, though. Muh BPA!

 

[Habs Halifax]

Then we hold a different opinion of ROR.

Most if not all of those teams boast two #1 Cs. I don't consider ROR one, even on the lower spectrum.

Agreed. We have gone so long without legit top 2 centers that we feel ROR is the answer. I think 100% of our fan base would love to add him for free as a UFA but paying a futures price when we clearly need to rebuild? Not a smart move. ROR is no better than Drai and Drai plays behind one of the best centers in the world.... Look at the Oilers struggles.

Poehling might not be better than ROR but he could be close (who knows). Picking up ROR only helps the Habs make the playoffs for 5 years while we still struggle in the playoffs to beat the top teams and we pick 20+ range again in the 1st round in those 5 years.

Depends on what you want... A potential Cup contender or a Playoff contender where "anything can happen". I prefer to keep stock piling the grade A assets and having some grade B prospects surprise. This team has the potential to be dam good in 2 seasons from now if we insert more top 5 or top 10 picks in each of the next two drafts. It would still fit the Price/Weber window. Beyond that, we would still have a young core and heck, who knows, Primeau might be a legit #1 goalie. Weber would be harder to replace but Mete, Juulsen, Brook, Romanov, Fleury can provide solid depth on top of a potential top pairing guy we can snag in the next few drafts.

Our Price/Weber with Gallagher and under core is very solid. We just need to add a few more "Kotkaniemi's" in the next two drafts.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I would've done it, kind of surprising to me how much Poehling is valued around the league.

How is it surprising? Cause he is not an offensive power type player? Winning hockey games requires guys like Poehling in the middle 2 center position. A big strong body who plays a 200' game and has some offensive skill. I know Mittlestad is the more offensively gifted player but Poehling has similar stats last year in the NCAA and scored more goals than he did. The important thing to consider is how he is being used to... as a defensive shut down center.

Look at a guy like Drouin in junior. He was lights out and looked dynamic. But his game has struggled to transition to the same type of player at the NHL. Poehling already has a NHL size body and he works at the little things that will make him successful in the NHL.

When you build a hockey team, you need both the guys like Poehling and guys like Suzuki and Drouin. It's a balance and how you get team results.

Look at last nights game against the Kings. A matured guy like Poehling would not necessarily break open the game and score one for us but he might limit them from scoring those 3 goals too. Kings are loaded with Poehling types. Big guys with some offensive skill and can skate.

 

[Hostile Offer]

How is it surprising? Cause he is not an offensive power type player? Winning hockey games requires guys like Poehling in the middle 2 center position. A big strong body who plays a 200' game and has some offensive skill. I know Mittlestad is the more offensively gifted player but Poehling has similar stats last year in the NCAA and scored more goals than he did. The important thing to consider is how he is being used to... as a defensive shut down center.

Look at a guy like Drouin in junior. He was lights out and looked dynamic. But his game has struggled to transition to the same type of player at the NHL. Poehling already has a NHL size body and he works at the little things that will make him successful in the NHL.

When you build a hockey team, you need both the guys like Poehling and guys like Suzuki and Drouin. It's a balance and how you get team results.

Look at last nights game against the Kings. A matured guy like Poehling would not necessarily break open the game and score one for us but he might limit them from scoring those 3 goals too. Kings are loaded with Poehling types. Big guys with some offensive skill and can skate.

I'm not blaming MB for backing out to keep Poehling, he's a great kid with a long future in the NHL (barring injuries). What I find surprising is his value when you consider what ROR was actually traded for. The 2nd rounders cancel each other out so that leaves Poehling+ assuming something minor vs. 1st+Thompson+Berglund+Sobotka. That Blues package has a pretty great value when you think about it.

 

[WhiskeySeven*]

Poehling is as likely to never make it to 82 NHL games as he is 820 NHL games.

I don't understand the hype behind this prospect.

 

[Habsawce]

Poehling is as likely to never make it to 82 NHL games as he is 820 NHL games.

I don't understand the hype behind this prospect.

Because he has natural raw talent and very high hockey IQ. Stuff you can't teach, and stuff that converts to NHL play. If you're a team that is re-tooling/rebuilding (whatever you want to call it), you need to have as many players like this as possible to find the homerun.

We know what O'Reilly is, he's a good 2C that plays a 200 foot game. We also know what he's not, a game changing star. While the team needs players like this, it really needs star power, so why trade a player that has the baseline for this? Gotta play the lottery to win, my friend.

 

[habsterr]

In terms of trade value that would be a big win for the habs, but a rebuilding team is better of keeping young assets and letting them develop. So id say No to the offer.

 

[WhiskeySeven*]

Because he has natural raw talent and very high hockey IQ. Stuff you can't teach, and stuff that converts to NHL play. If you're a team that is re-tooling/rebuilding (whatever you want to call it), you need to have as many players like this as possible to find the homerun.

We know what O'Reilly is, he's a good 2C that plays a 200 foot game. We also know what he's not, a game changing star. While the team needs players like this, it really needs star power, so why trade a player that has the baseline for this? Gotta play the lottery to win, my friend.

O'Reilly is a "raw talent" and has a "very high hockey IQ". He's literally the guy that Poehling might be... at his best... if everything works.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm not blaming MB for backing out to keep Poehling, he's a great kid with a long future in the NHL (barring injuries). What I find surprising is his value when you consider what ROR was actually traded for. The 2nd rounders cancel each other out so that leaves Poehling+ assuming something minor vs. 1st+Thompson+Berglund+Sobotka. That Blues package has a pretty great value when you think about it.

Sabres did well in the ROR return. It really comes down to Thompson vs Poehling. Berglund and Sobotka would be easily matched by the Habs and are not major assets IMO. Thompon is a fringe center/winger type young player. Poehling is a true center. It's not far off but Poehling > Thompson.

True centers who are trending well as prospects are worth a lot!

Suzuki is another fringe center/winger type prospect. He is worth a lot too cause he doing very well in the CHL and trending well but he is not worth as much as a true center who is also trending well.

 

[Hostile Offer]

Sabres did well in the ROR return. It really comes down to Thompson vs Poehling. Berglund and Sobotka would be easily matched by the Habs and are not major assets IMO. Thompon is a fringe center/winger type young player. Poehling is a true center. It's not far off but Poehling > Thompson.

True centers who are trending well as prospects are worth a lot!

Suzuki is another fringe center/winger type prospect. He is worth a lot too cause he doing very well in the CHL and trending well but he is not worth as much as a true center who is also trending well.

Poehling is absolutely a more valuable asset than Thompson. But is he worth Thompson+1st? Because that's what I find odd.

 

[Sorinth]

O'Reilly is a "raw talent" and has a "very high hockey IQ". He's literally the guy that Poehling might be... at his best... if everything works.

Although I generally agree, the major difference is age. O'Reilly might only give that level of play for 5-7 years, Poehling could potentially give it to you for 10-12 years.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Poehling is absolutely a more valuable asset than Thompson. But is he worth Thompson+1st? Because that's what I find odd.

Thompson and a late 1st? I doubt it. However, it just depends on how much you value the game Poehling has. If you believe he is a true future #2C, then yes, he is worth more. In terms of value on paper, the 1st definitely sways the value to the Blues.

It comes down to quantity vs quality and depends on how you measure quality with Poehling. We have to remember Poehling was a mid round ranking heading into the draft and slip to a late 1st due to difficulty of measuring offense ability for a 18 year old playing in the NCAA. Poehling addressed this in his draft +1 so he is no longer a late 1st value.

The Habs 2nd is also projected early 2nd too. It's not far off from a late 1st value. The additional 2nd the Blues are giving is a 2021 2nd. Who knows what that will be and the Sabres likely value assets now vs later.

I'm not surprised Poehling is valued by NHL GM's more than fans.