Confirmed with Link: Oilers Sign Jason Garrison To A PTO

[BoldNewLettuce]

I mean....it kinda seems dumb.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

10 points in his last 78 NHL games, doubt theres much scoring potential left in him.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

I just cant tell if this is chia just f***in swan diving out of the league or if its just a calculated move.

 

[ZJuice]

Is this a Make A Wish foundation type of thing?

 

[KCC]

I just cant tell if this is chia just ****in swan diving out of the league or if its just a calculated move.

Chiarelli handcuffed himself with awful signings and bad contracts and now he's trying to rely on finding "hidden gems" but as we've seen, it hasn't gone well at all. lol. Don't expect this to amount to anything but as people have said, worth a look I guess.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Competition is never a bad thing. Yes it'd be great if he could add a top 4 guy, but if not we should at least have a couple of solid 6 and 7's to round out the roster.

It’s worked well so far........

 

[oobga]

Just an extra body in case of injuries or Nurse is not signed for camp/pre-season?

Must be just that because Garrison has been done as a legit NHLer for 3 years now.

 

[dustrock]

Smithson for the 7D. /end thread

 

[nexttothemoon]

Garrison used to be a pretty solid dman.

That was 4+ years ago though.

I guess a PTO can't hurt but I'd rather have a PTO to player that is at least a couple levels above where Garrison is now... Franson I guess isn't in the cards because he is >>> than Garrison.

They should have just re-signed Auvitu.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

It’s worked well so far........

The bottom line is that if you are a depth defenseman then you need to work your tail off to get a NHL job. No complacency and IIRC prior t this season we had all of 2 PTO's. Chris Kelly and Kris Versteeg. We've got 2 already this summer and may add to that.

 

[oilerbear]

Doubt he gets a contract, we dont need 14 left shooting D on 1 way contracts.

Many of you have seen theories I have posted on HF boards for last 7 years.
Plus Lowetide for the last 12 years. Copied, borrowed, sto.... by the analytic hockey community.

Since I got Cancer I am on long term disability from my job as 11 eng field triarchal (design, run, maintain) as-build and Data collector/verifier for AB Coal Power Plant survival/conversion anslysis & modelling.

I have been going back and recapturing my posts on the blogs I presented portions of my theories. What I thought was 20+ base theories can be broken down into 70+ academic structured theory papers.

Most hockey analytics people are linear game theorist who limit outside mechanisms that influence play so they get a binary outcome with regression. The leading binary theorists who rejected my type multi variable approach. Are getting into human interaction and a abandoning it to go to my aproach to anslysis. Cause it can be easily partnered with old school scouting and video review. Which I do.

I have used a real world multi variable Boolean goal diff system and player mechanism approach to hockey anslysis. So I generate a map of outcomes from single system orbplayer mechsnisms that can have many results that direct you anywhere on the Goal diff success map I generated.
It lets you identify the best system and player mechanism that lead to +ve goal diff.

It lets you Identify the high goal diff actions.
HD shots ( homeplate) go in 5 times more than LD (perimeter) shots.
Elite 0% corsi dmen (#1 Russell) allow the lowest % of shots requiring movement to stop an open (open space in net elevation) shot.
Fwd NZ trap his the highest reducer of Zone entryie. corsi against.
Top 5 reg ssn GA teams can win a cup with bott 30 GF
Top 5 reg ssn GF teams can only win cups with top 15 ga.
Non top 16 GA teams can advance to round of 16 ( playoffs ) and round of 8 20-40% more than non top 16 GF teams.
Elite GA is the critical driver for championship performance.

Off dmen are not dmen but rovers based on structure position and zone minutes.
CHL scouts I have talked to now believe they are rovers.
Rovers create a 3F -1R - 1D - 1G structure rather than the traditional 3 - 2-1.
A 1R-1D-1G structure yeild High HD shot rates and often leaves the dman in outnumbered play in front of our net. ( we’re is Waldo (the rover))
Rovers when compared to forwards are 4 times less successful at generating even goals than forwards. Get the puck to the 210-300 fwds ASAP.
The top 5 rovers performe at a #6 to #9 fwd level (3rd line) and the rest perform at #10 fwd (4th line) or less.
Rovers like Nurse and Klefbom have limited cup core value and create a large negative GA affect.

Garrison Is a type of player needed in the cup core. He has been a top 60 HD dman for 7 of last 8 years. He maybe the needed depth to further cover for Sekeras loss.

Oiler D:
Larsson RD Top 5 1st comp HD with the ability to cover (homeplate) in a 1R-1D-G structure. One of 3 1st comp in NHL. That is more cup core elite than every forward but Mcdavid, Crosby.
Sekera LD Top 10 HD 2nd comp or lower.
Gravel RD top 15 HD 2nd comp when not crohns affected.
Benning RD top 60 HD 2nd/3rd comp
Garrison PTO LD Top,20-60 HD tepemdeng on comp????
Russell #1 0% corsi Dman, Top 20 hd results with top 10 1sr & 2nd comp HD d.

2 potential top 60 HD dmen still available
Top 45Sbisa injured last year.
Emelin with top 30 results last year. Has Top 20 results with elite 1st comp hD dmen. Could provide 1 st comp depth protection.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Best of wishes in your battle with cancer @oilerbear.

 

[Cloned]

Many of you have seen theories I have posted on HF boards for last 7 years.
Plus Lowetide for the last 12 years. Copied, borrowed, sto.... by the analytic hockey community.

Since I got Cancer I am on long term disability from my job as 11 eng field triarchal (design, run, maintain) as-build and Data collector/verifier for AB Coal Power Plant survival/conversion anslysis & modelling.

I have been going back and recapturing my posts on the blogs I presented portions of my theories. What I thought was 20+ base theories can be broken down into 70+ academic structured theory papers.

Most hockey analytics people are linear game theorist who limit outside mechanisms that influence play so they get a binary outcome with regression.

I have used a real world multi variable Boolean goal diff system and player mechanism approach to hockey anslysis. So I generate a map of outcomes from single system orbplayer mechsnisms that can have many results that direct you anywhere on the Goal diff success map I generated.
It lets you identify the best system and player mechanism that lead to +ve goal diff.

It lets you Identify the high goal diff actions.
HD shots ( homeplate) go in 5 times more than LD (perimeter) shots.
Elite 0% corsi dmen (#1 Russell) allow the lowest % of shots requiring movement to stop an open (open space in net elevation) shot.
Fwd NZ trap his the highest reducer of Zone entryie. corsi against.
Top 5 reg ssn GA teams can win a cup with bott 30 GF
Top 5 reg ssn GF teams can only win cups with top 15 ga.
Non top 16 GA teams can advance to round of 16 ( playoffs ) and round of 8 20-40% more than non top 16 GF teams.
Elite GA is the critical driver for championship performance.

Off dmen are not dmen but rovers based on structure position and zone minutes.
CHL scouts I have talked to now believe they are rovers.
Rovers create a 3F -1R - 1D - 1G structure rather than the traditional 3 - 2-1.
A 1R-1D-1G structure yeild High HD shot rates and often leaves the dman in outnumbered play in front of our net. ( we’re is Waldo (the rover))
Rovers when compared to forwards are 4 times less successful at generating even goals than forwards. Hat the puck to the 210-300 fwds ASAP.
The top 5 rovers performe at a #6 to #9 fwd level (3rd line) and the rest are performs at #10 fwd (4th line) or less.
Rovers like Nurse and Klefbom have limited cup core value and create a large negative GA affect.
Garrison Is a type of player needed in the cup core. He has been a top 60 HD dman for 7 of last 8 years. He maybe the needed depth to further cover for Sekeras loss.

Oiler D:
Larsson RD Top 5 1st comp HD with the ability to cover (homeplate) in a 1R-1D-G structure. One of 3 1st comp in NHL. That is more elite than every forward but Mcdavid, Crosby.
Sekera LD Top 10 HD 2nd comp or lower.
Gravel RD top 15 HD 2nd comp when not crohns affected.
Benning RD top 60 HD 2nd/3rd comp
Garrison PTO LD Top,20-60 HD tepemdeng on comp????
Russell #1 0% corsi Dman, Top 20 hd results with top 10 1sr & 2nd comp HD d.

2 potential top 60 HD dmen still available
Top 45Sbisa injured last year.
Emelin with top 30 results last year. Has Top 20 results with elite 1st comp hD dmen. Could provide 1 st comp depth protection.

I did not know you have cancer.

Whatever else you may post, I hope you are doing well.

 

[oilerbear]

Best of wishes in your battle with cancer @oilerbear.

Thanks!

My motives on here is to read like minded passionate hockey fans and to hopefully educate.

55 with a 39yr old wife who is an award winning (sports page) editor/writer with sun/postmedia for 14 years. Who has worked the likes of Francis, Gilbertson. She witnessed my many years of 10pm to 2-3am. Rainman/Beautifulmind (high function autistic) hanalytics development.

I have been contacting people in NHL, NCAA, CHL, Scouts, parents of who I had discussions with about my theories.

HD density and Table hockey movement are critical to the complete measure of GA play.

The table hockey goalie observation was 44 years ago playing street hockey with a 7 year old kid when we were 10-11??? Who moved with the ball in Esposito butterfly style like a TH goalie. It wa the basis for 20 theasis paper size theories.
That young man is Ron Gunville the current Player Personel Director for the PA raiders of WHL.

If I ever get to generate the 3 theory books. There are a lot of neat anecdotes related to these theories.

Chemo port tomorrow and first major chemo the next day in the Bone marrow stem cell transplant process.

Go oilers!

PS. 16-17 we were the only WC team with Cup core structure.
But 2 horrible good goal calls likely cost us a cup final.
17-18 we lacked the needed top 125 fwd depth with moving Eberle and Lucic regression.
But the critical change was Tmac moving from HD area priority system to a Eakins style down low and perimeter pressure. Creating a lot of werevis Waldo from our rovers. A change from top 5 WC 159 evga to bottom 2 WC 199 evga.
18-19 we run a HD system again we match VGK def triangle 4 Top 60 HD and top 10 HD goalie Talbot. A lucic bounce back in SH% to one of 2 cup core teams.

Off to bed.

 

[I am the Liquor]

The bottom line is that if you are a depth defenseman then you need to work your tail off to get a NHL job. No complacency and IIRC prior t this season we had all of 2 PTO's. Chris Kelly and Kris Versteeg. We've got 2 already this summer and may add to that.

I’m sorry I can’t get excited about signing has beens to pto’s. We are down Sekera and possibly Nurse and we get Fayne and Gryba hail mary’s. I’m tired of eating the shit sandwiches this organization continues to foist on the fans.

 

[Mr Sakich]

I wonder if the garrison signing is an attempt to lower the leverage carolina has in the faulk negotiations?

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I like it. It would give a vet presence to the 3rd pairing, which is good considering the other guy on the pairing will have less than 100 games played.

Considering this team relies on point shots so much, Garrison's a decent fit.


Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Russell
Garrison-Bear/Benning/Jarabek/Gravel/Bouchard

There's zero margin for error with the top 4, but that's good depth for the 3rd pairing.

 

[North]

Yeah, thats the definition of a PTO. Just weird that a somewhat local player who developed in the Oilers system wouldnt sign a PTO here (with a depleted D core). Or if the Oilers didnt offer him a PTO (but I believe they did), that wed offer a PTO to a pur AHL player on his last legs vs a young player with more recent NHL experience

Usually they wait to hammer out the details. I think Davidson is a bottom pairing d man who understands that with the Oilers he's never going to be much more than that. Maybe he saw Oesterle get an opportunity with the Hawks and he wants to see if he can too.

 

[joestevens29]

On one hand you could say that maybe he had a wakeup call and is working his butt off to get back into the NHL. After all the guy had been making 27.6mil over the past 6 years. You could also say they want to see what the PP looks like with a shot.

After that I'm not too sure what to say. It is only a PTO and it's a good way to be able to bring an extra body to europe. A little surprised he was the guy, but not a lot left I gess.

 

[CupofOil]

It's just a PTO but it seems like a waste with no upside. Guy can't skate anymore, never really could but it's worse than ever.
I guess if they throw him on the PP and take him off the ice immediately after the PP ends, I could see a bit of value here but otherwise, less than meh.

 

[Little Fury]

Would rather have PTO'd Franson, at least he would fit a need.

 

[La Bamba]

Normally I would think a PTO is harmless but I'd rather have a younger player with upside play those pre-season minutes. Garrison was done since the 15/16 season.

 

[oXo Cube]

PTO's are nothing. I don't really care if the Oilers bring in 0 or 2 or 10 of them.

If he sucks he will be cut quickly.

 

[shoop]

I wonder if the garrison signing is an attempt to lower the leverage carolina has in the faulk negotiations?

Doubtful. Carolina is free to sign Garrison if they like still.

 

[McDNicks17]

I would have liked to see a rightie signed to a PTO, but right-handed defenseman are almost the left-handed pitchers of the NHL now. Doesn't matter if you suck. As long as you're right-handed, you're getting a contract.

The only rightie UFAs who played last season are Bieksa, Franson, Ryan Sproul and Frank Corrado.