Rumor: Oilers may be out (for now) on Karlsson due to $$. Looking at Klingberg & Gostisbehere as alternatives

[LTIR]

Is it just me or is this an odd year for RHD? Especially offensive ones.

Normally it's the premium position, but this year it seems like there's good supply and only few buyers.


As for here, I think Klingberg is a better target for Edmonton. It seems clear that Holland wants an upgrade on Barrie and Bouchard, someone with a bit more "dynamic" to their game. Karlsson is the gold standard, but Klingberg's also up there too, and he wouldn't cost an arm and a leg to get.

Nurse-Klingberg
Broberg-Ceci
Kulak-Desharnais

Meh, still not cup caliber, but at least Klingberg is a guy with a history playing on the top pairing minutes.

So Oilers downgrade from Barrie to Klingberg.. :/

 

[Petes2424]

A name people should look at with the Oilers that we’re not hearing but should be? A player who fits what they do.

Nick Jensen

A Holland draft pick, who plays an up tempo game, and very importantly, creates space with his feet from the circles down. Not many UFA to be dmen can do this.

In 2019 he received Madison Bowey and a 2nd round pick in 2020 (Cross Hanas 55th overall) going from Detroit to the Caps. He was a UFA to be, but signed a 4 year extension the day of the trade.

So his value is likely about the same.

Kesselring or Kemp and a 3rd, or a straight 2nd and 4th.

The Caps need dmen prospects, and likely ask for something like this. Straight picks, he’ll get a 2nd and a 4th but they’ll likely get a player and a pick.

 

[Nemesis Prime]

So Oilers downgrade from Barrie to Klingberg.. :/

Yeah, I don't get it. If they're not going for Karlsson, why trade him for a lesser player? Go for a cheaper shutdown option like Schenn who would only cost a draft pick.

 

[Seachd]

It's not at all difficult to find the cap dollars here if someone's willing to pay the price.

Obviously that's the issue. If the price is too high, no one's going to want him.

Also, Karlsson hasn't disappeared and won't disappear. He may get hurt from time to time but when he's in the lineup, he's very effective regardless of who is on the ice with him. The reality is that Edmonton has the opportunity to get one of the best players right now to play with two of the best players in the league right now. They can get the Sharks to retain 40% if they pay the appropriate price. Asking a team to retain 4.6 mil for four years and change isn't going to come cheap when the player is arguably the best player at his position right now. For that kind of retention, it's three first round picks alone before you even get to the player themselves and the dumps you're still sending the other way anyway. You're not going to get Karlsson out of San Jose just because you're the only serious suitor now when it's pretty well established that there will be other suitors in the offseason. Make it worth Grier's while if you want him now otherwise you will wait just like everyone else is waiting.

It's easy to say there will be plenty of teams waiting for him in the summer - we have no idea. His NMC likely counters most of that anyway.

We also have no idea what the price is. The only thing we've heard is that "three firsts" was never the case, although it depends on retention. Obviously, teams are going to be wary giving anything near that for a contract that could go sideways at any time, regardless of fans' insistence that there's no way that happens.

The team with the pressure to make this move now is Edmonton because they're competing now. The Sharks will be losing one way or the other just fine whether the deal happens or not.

I don't know - I don't own the Sharks, so I can't speak to how much he's willing to pay Karlsson to be at the bottom of the league. That's where the retention balance comes in. I do know that if I'm "losing one way or another", paying 35% of a contract is cheaper than paying 100%.

The Oilers have other options around the league, so I'm not sure they're so willing to dump a ton of good assets into a contract like that. It's easy to see why.

 

[Prominence]

Because it didn't work with Barrie in TOR doesn't mean that it can't work, and this is the perfect example of confirmation bias. You make it sound like getting Chychrun would be an easy task. The trade price for Chychrun is going to be VERY high. He's obviously would be a GREAT add, but because of that I'm not sure if the Oilers can (or at least are willing to) pony up the necessary assets to get that deal done.


In the short term - that would be the direction I would go. I don't think that adding a SAH home guy is going to fundamentally change the Oilers team structure or ability to defend as a team. How do you think that Luke Schenn would look on the Oilers? 15 of the 16 teams which make the play-off's end up disappointed. It would be a "big balls" type move, because it's hard to defend if the Oilers fail and you don't follow the conventional wisdom like "You win with defense". While that is true, I just don't think that the Oilers can change the way they play with 25 games to go, and they're better off trying to outscore their mistakes. YMMV.

EDIT: And for those saying the Oilers should concentrate on defense (which I agree with in principle) - that is pretty damn obvious. I would ask that if it's more likely that the coaching staff hasn't tried that, or if the current roster just hasn't been able to make that work? And if the current roster hasn't been able to make it work, does upgrading Kulak to Schenn (or the equivalent) really move the needle?

It’s not confirmation bias when the situations are very similar. Edmonton is front-stacked in forwards in mcdavid, draisaitl, rnh, kane- so is toronto with nylander, marner, matthews. Oilers have bouchard, barrie, nurse. Leafs have muzzin, rielly, and barrie. Both teams have questionable goaltending (larger sample size is needed for skinner though). Stanley cup winning teams have a robust defense corps. They need a minutes muncher. The closest thing they have is nurse, but another one would greatly improve their team. Expecting to increase offense with the addition of an offensive dman is dangerous because he can cannibalize production from the forwards and diminish returns.

Contrary to what you think, the oilers do have the assets to make a move. They still have 2023 first, 2024 first, bourgault, bouchard. Oilers can also target orlov who should be much cheaper. Someone will be available for those assets.

Like i said earlier, if you don’t have the right coach, just wait until he gets fired. The new coach can come in with a better d corps than with one that consists of all offensive dmen.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Oilers have given up the 30th goals against while also scoring the most in the NHL. They need to work on keeping the puck out of their own net. Not scoring more goals. EK is having an insane season but a lot of futures being spent on more offense would be silly. Even thought it would be fun to watch.

Also, this isn’t just this year. EK has an injury history. Just LAST YEAR he was considered one of the worst contracts in the NHL. All of a sudden it’s the guy you move heaven and earth for? Come on

Oilers are 9th and in even strength scoring and 17th in even strength goals against. Oilers aren’t 3rd worst in goals against overall in the league, hell they aren’t even 3rd worst in the Pacific.

If you want to argue a point try getting your facts remotely right first.

 

[quackquackquack]

lmao at this tweet, it makes it seem Heiskanen and Gostisbehere are even close to the same tier

Oh ok, Klingberg not Heiskanen. The two d-men who don't play on the same team anymore. Even then Klingberg's contract is an albatross. Ducks need to retain.

The Ducks can and likely will retain given its expiring and they will be seeking a 1st.

 

[PULSATING]

I expect only severe disappointment this year. If Holland fails to have any creativity again…

It’ll be hard to stomach as a fan. At what point do you pay for the asset and give SJ another 1st to retain on a piece that will immediately improve the breakouts on the team.

I’m so sick of watching low IQ D-men throw the puck off the glass and immediately get scored on when that doesn’t work.

Watching Ceci throw an absolute grenade into Nurses feet yesterday resulting in a GA was the nail in the coffin for me.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Obviously that's the issue. If the price is too high, no one's going to want him.



It's easy to say there will be plenty of teams waiting for him in the summer - we have no idea. His NMC likely counters most of that anyway.

We also have no idea what the price is. The only thing we've heard is that "three firsts" was never the case, although it depends on retention. Obviously, teams are going to be wary giving anything near that for a contract that could go sideways at any time, regardless of fans' insistence that there's no way that happens.



I don't know - I don't own the Sharks, so I can't speak to how much he's willing to pay Karlsson to be at the bottom of the league. That's where the retention balance comes in. I do know that if I'm "losing one way or another", paying 35% of a contract is cheaper than paying 100%.

The Oilers have other options around the league, so I'm not sure they're so willing to dump a ton of good assets into a contract like that. It's easy to see why.

Then the Oilers need to come down off their ask because asking any team to retain 4.5 mil for years is a ginormous ask in a cap league even if the Sharks can accommodate.

It's easy to say there will be plenty of teams because there will be. Last offseason, two teams talked to the Sharks about Karlsson reportedly. Merely getting that number is an increase on now. When anyone comes off a 100 point or so season that is available for acquisition, you're probably going to get some teams interested when they have the flexibility that comes with the offseason. But every big contract can go sideways. That's just part of putting on the adult pants and going into professional sports territory. Some more than others but it's not reason enough to avoid trading for one of the best players in the league. If you're trying to win a championship, you acquire these players when they're available and you're competing. The question Edmonton brass needs to ask themselves is if they really believe the team they have is good enough to win a Cup.

As for the retention side of it, paying 35% of a contract may be cheaper than 100% but it doesn't make it the best decision for the rebuilding team. You don't just give away an elite player, give away cap space, and give away your second of three retention slots without something of merit being returned. Right now, it's hard to say anything Edmonton is offering is all that meaningful to a rebuild. The picks they have are late. The prospects they have available don't have elite potential so you're asking the Sharks to do all these things without giving up anything of real note and trying to pretend like it's something they ought to do when there's no real downside to waiting to see if the offseason picks it up. The Sharks are going to have to spend money regardless due to how this league works. They can find other ways to save money if a team isn't willing to work with them to get a deal done.

The Oilers' other options in this regard are vastly inferior and questionable that they'd even assist in them winning anything.

 

[Seachd]

Then the Oilers need to come down off their ask because asking any team to retain 4.5 mil for years is a ginormous ask in a cap league even if the Sharks can accommodate.

I mean, we don’t even know what they’re asking for. It’s just as valid to say San Jose needs to “come down”, because they’re both unknowns.

It's easy to say there will be plenty of teams because there will be. Last offseason, two teams talked to the Sharks about Karlsson reportedly. Merely getting that number is an increase on now. When anyone comes off a 100 point or so season that is available for acquisition, you're probably going to get some teams interested when they have the flexibility that comes with the offseason. But every big contract can go sideways. That's just part of putting on the adult pants and going into professional sports territory. Some more than others but it's not reason enough to avoid trading for one of the best players in the league. If you're trying to win a championship, you acquire these players when they're available and you're competing. The question Edmonton brass needs to ask themselves is if they really believe the team they have is good enough to win a Cup.

Again, Karlsson has an NMC. That alone will whittle down teams and can also have an impact on the return the Sharks get.

Right now, it's hard to say anything Edmonton is offering is all that meaningful to a rebuild.

Yes, it is hard to say that, because we have no idea what they’re offering.

The picks they have are late. The prospects they have available don't have elite potential

This will pretty much go for any team interested in Karlsson.

so you're asking the Sharks to do all these things without giving up anything of real note and trying to pretend like it's something they ought to do when there's no real downside to waiting to see if the offseason picks it up.

It seems pretty clear what the downside is. Maybe it’s worth it for the Sharks - we won’t know until it happens.

The Oilers' other options in this regard are vastly inferior and questionable that they'd even assist in them winning anything.

This seems like a really strange thing to say. That logic pretty much goes against adding anything at the deadline at all for any team.

It’s “questionable” that Dmitri Orlov would help the Oilers?

 

[Homesick]

The Ducks can and likely will retain given its expiring and they will be seeking a 1st.

Seeking a 1st for what? Certainly not Klingberg for 3.5m. Any team in the playoff hunt would be adding to move his contract

 

[authentic]

They may as well pay up they only have a few years to win the Cup.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I mean, we don’t even know what they’re asking for. It’s just as valid to say San Jose needs to “come down”, because they’re both unknowns.



Again, Karlsson has an NMC. That alone will whittle down teams and can also have an impact on the return the Sharks get.



Yes, it is hard to say that, because we have no idea what they’re offering.



This will pretty much go for any team interested in Karlsson.



It seems pretty clear what the downside is. Maybe it’s worth it for the Sharks - we won’t know until it happens.



This seems like a really strange thing to say. That logic pretty much goes against adding anything at the deadline at all for any team.

It’s “questionable” that Dmitri Orlov would help the Oilers?

When someone says that the price is too high, the implication is it's on the team who is trying to trade the player so I hope you'll forgive me if I frame it as such. The NMC will whittle down the teams and impact the return but like the price tag you mentioned, it's an unknown to us. I was merely stating what has been reported on that front. When the Sharks dealt Burns to Carolina, Carolina was not on his list and needed his approval to get done. It may end up being a similar path of asking his approval for a place when it gets closer to being done. Not every team that may have interest in Karlsson has a similar pick arrangement and a similar prospect pool at their respective disposals. If it's so clear what the downside is for the Sharks, please go ahead and address those points. The actual risk to waiting for the offseason for the Sharks is at most the ability to get rid of Karlsson...something they don't have to do. As for the last response, yeah it's pretty questionable whether someone like Orlov would help the Oilers. Orlov would likely slot in where Kulak is. How much do you think he'd contribute to helping the Oilers win at that spot playing across Barrie? Some, I'm sure but vastly inferior to what Karlsson would bring.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

The Ducks can and likely will retain given its expiring and they will be seeking a 1st.

You can also seek a date with Scarlett Johansson if you want but nobody's giving up a first for the shambling corpse of Klingberg.

 

[Kravtsov420]

This is what you get for paying Darnell Hearse 10 bagillion

 

[SwedishFire]

What team in their right mind are going to retain on Karlsson for multiple seasons?

If SJ won’t retain more it’s just not going to happen.



Connor and Leon want a puck mover.

Rather have Karlsson who has real skill and senses, than Ghost or klingberg who has legendary bad defence.

 

[ottawa]

Such unnecessary targets, love to see it

 

[Slats432]

The Ducks can and likely will retain given its expiring and they will be seeking a 1st.

 

[Slimmy]

Why in the world do some oilers fans want EK? Scoring goals and their PP isn’t the problem. He’s the last guy I’d want to spend decent futures on if I was an oilers fan

Scoring goals on the PP? Karlsson leads the entire league in ES points. Why comment when you have no clue what you're talking about.

 

[Crabapple]

Those guys definitely don't move the needle, don't think it's worth the cost to get them for a sidegrade. Kenny needs to go big or not at all.

 

[Coffey]

This is what you get for paying Darnell Hearse 10 bagillion

The people who defend that signing as as bad as the people who defend Puljujarvi.

 

[Baby Punisher]

- Sharks willing to retain $2m-$3m on the deal. Oilers want $5m retained.

- Oilers looked at Gavrikov but was too expensive and dont want to give up their 1st for a rental.

- Oilers looking at Gostisbehere and Klingberg as Alternatives.

This is why the Oilers will never win during the Mc Jesus era. They won't do what it takes to win. Do they really need a first rounder this year, or next year? Or the year after that? No! They don't They are trying to win now.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

The smartest thing Edmonton can do is call Boston and give their 1st and 2nd round picks this year for Swayman. Swayman makes 900k and would fit under the cap. He would put Edmonton in the SCF this year at the cost of zero roster players.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Yeah, I don't get it. If they're not going for Karlsson, why trade him for a lesser player? Go for a cheaper shutdown option like Schenn who would only cost a draft pick.

Because Schenn doesn't help us move the puck out of our zone. Barrie, like everyone else on the Oilers blueline, isn't doing well at that right now, despite his otherwise fine play.

 

[belair]

Seeking a 1st for what? Certainly not Klingberg for 3.5m. Any team in the playoff hunt would be adding to move his contract

For Henrique. Klingberg will probably get you a 3rd with full retention looking at his performance and cap cost over the past couple seasons.

I could see a package of both possibly being a target though, with Klingberg going through a third party broker, cutting his cap hit to $1.75m.

It's still tough to see how we deploy the D. We have a lot of right shots and I'm not sure which ones can play on their offhand.