Speculation: Offseason Roster Building Thread 3 - No draft trades? We're all gonna die

[DougieSmash]

According almost every advanced stats, Slavin is top 10 D already. I woulnd't trade what seems to be future captain of the team for two years of Duchene. MacK is good but he should improve because the contract is not exactly good one.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

https://capfriendly.com/players/hampus-lindholm

While there is a difference in terms of draft pedigree and playoff performance, I still imagine that Lindholm’s extension is what Slavin’s agent will use as a comparable, if approached about a contract this summer. Slavin and Lindholm are comparable stylistically and had unbelievably similar sophomore seasons.

I’m not sure that the Canes should do much more than 6 years, this summer. Buying out 3-4 UFA years, instead of 2, will drive up the AAV to upwards of $6 mil, maybe over. If Slavin’s offensive development stagnates, that contract goes from being good value to meh. GMRF should wait a little bit, if a mega-extension is the plan.

 

[geehaad]

Yeah, ok, I'm getting an education about the contracts defensemen are earning these days...I see the comparatives around the $5M for Slavin. I'm certainly not saying he's not that valuable, nor that I'd balk at that sort of money if I were GMRF...I think he is absolutely worth that amount. Just hoping maybe we were assuming too high of a dollar amount for that long term.

 

[Buenos Necas]

Probably a bit behind the times on this one, but looking at Lindholm's contract I noticed him and Fowler have some non-bonus lockout protection built into their deals. The salary number is much lower in 2020 for both, and in 2022 for Fowler:

Lindholm
2016: 3m
2017: 6m
2018: 6.75m
2019: 5.25m
2020: 3.75m
2021: 6.75m

Fowler
2018: 7.5m
2019: 7.5m
2020: 4.75m
2021: 6.25m
2022: 4.75
2023: 7.5m
2024: 7.5m
2025: 6.25m

We did the same thing with Darling's deal:
2017: 4.75m
2018: 4.75m
2019: 4.1m
2020: 3m

Looking at some other recent deals, Rangers did it with Shattenkirk and Smith, Caps did it with Orlov and Oshie, and the Flyers did it with Gostisbehere. But the Sharks didn't do it with Jones or Vlasic, and the Preds didn't do it with Bonino. Although perhaps it's more driven by agent than GM? Will be interesting to see how the Slavin/Pesce deals are structured to handle those two years.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

https://capfriendly.com/players/marc-edouard-vlasic

While Vlasic's contract has a relatively flat structure, it does provide for a lockout-proof (?) $5 mil bonus due July 2020. Jones and Bonino's contracts are structured similarly.

I doubt that a couple of non-elite RFAs will have enough leverage to pull a signing bonus in that year or that a team like Carolina would offer that to them. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some odd structural variance, however.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Continuing my Slavin post…

https://capfriendly.com/players/travis-hamonic

Assuming GMRF staggers the contracts a bit, I think Hamonic’s 7 year 2nd contract serves a good comparable for Brett Pesce. I think they’re pretty similar as defense first Top 4 defenseman with similar draft pedigrees. The Islanders bought out 3 UFA years with that deal. Adjusted for cap inflation, that’s equivalent to a ~$4.5 mil AAV.

https://capfriendly.com/players/victor-hedman

I like Hedman's 5 year 2nd contract for Hanifin, at this point. Hedman, like Hanifin, came into the league as a Top 5 pick with a lot of hype. Hedman was ahead of Hanifin 2 seasons in, but still started out a bit slow, relative to expectations. Hedman only gave up 1 UFA year with that deal and was rewarded for it with his monster UFA contract starting at age 26. Adjusted for cap inflation, that’s equivalent to a ~$4.67 mil AAV.

My initial thought relating to long-term extensions signed this summer is something to the effect of Pesce at ~$4.5 mil AAV (2025 UFA), Slavin at ~$5.2 mil AAV (2024 UFA) and Hanifin at ~$4.67 mil (2023 UFA.) All total, the 3 of them would come in at an AAV of $14.37 mil through the 22-23 season with those contracts.

 

[Buenos Necas]

https://capfriendly.com/players/marc-edouard-vlasic

While Vlasic's contract has a relatively flat structure, it does provide for a lockout-proof (?) $5 mil bonus due July 2020. Jones and Bonino's contracts are structured similarly.

I doubt that a couple of non-elite RFAs will have enough leverage to pull a signing bonus in that year or that a team like Carolina would offer that to them. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some odd structural variance, however.

Ah, right you are. Was too focused on salary structure and missed those. But yeah, the salary structure is what I what interested in for Slavin/Pesce since we're not a team that hands out those type of bonuses.

 

[Buenos Necas]

With Chicago having paid that 2m bonus on July 1, Kruger will cost 1.475m this year and 2.3m next year. Cap hit of 3.083m

 

[Unsustainable]

Then TT to Pitt for Dumo, then Dumo ++ to Colo for Duchene.

 

[Brock Anton]

Okay then. Collect ALL the Blackhawks.

 

[Vagrant]

This makes precious little sense without an accompanying move.

 

[CandyCanes]

I'm confused why wouldn't we of just acquired Kruger in the first place from Chicago for future considerations like LV did? This also makes the Jooris signing puzzling?

 

[Buenos Necas]

A lot of cash (next year at least) for someone who has scored 5 goals over his last 111 games.

 

[JustJoe2k5]

Kind of assumed Kruger would end up here eventually once his name started to float in rumors. Cost can't be that significant, so not a bad pick-up to solidify the third-line center position.

 

[FreshSeabass]

This has to be a precursory move otherwise it's a bit strange.

EDIT: Unless RF he didn't like what was left in FA to solidify the forward group.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

This makes precious little sense without an accompanying move.

He's an excellent 4th line center.

means the center depth is staal-rask-ryan-Kruger

then we can banish ryan to the nether when duchene inevitably happens.

 

[Wolfpuck]

Maybe we like Jooris better as a winger? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[MinJaBen]

If true, we'd then have four bottom six centers...seems a bit much.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I'm confused why wouldn't we of just acquired Kruger in the first place from Chicago for future considerations like LV did? This also makes the Jooris signing puzzling?

Vegas is probably going to retain salary

 

[bleedgreen]

Well....he's a center.

Not remotely the one I would want or expect. We have jstaal for defensive purposes.

 

[Vagrant]

He's an excellent 4th line center.

means the center depth is staal-rask-ryan-Kruger

then we can banish ryan to the nether when duchene inevitably happens.

But with the amount of one way deals we currently have, and the fact that we just signed Jooris for presumably the same role, what do we stand to gain here? And I know Kruger has some value beyond scoring but.... this is just weird. It wouldn't shock me to see PDG as part of the return to Vegas. That's the only part that would make sense.

 

[GoldiFox]

I could see Vegas being interested in guys like PDG, McGinn, Zykov, Wallmark, etc. Forwards who can play next year.

I don't understand why they want to add a bottom-6 C, but Francis has a plan. Maybe Vegas retains 50%?

 

[MinJaBen]

But with the amount of one way deals we currently have, and the fact that we just signed Jooris for presumably the same role, what do we stand to gain here? And I know Kruger has some value beyond scoring but.... this is just weird. It wouldn't shock me to see PDG as part of the return to Vegas. That's the only part that would make sense.

Even if that were true, we still seem to be overstocked at the bottom half of the roster.

 

[Novacane]

But with the amount of one way deals we currently have, and the fact that we just signed Jooris for presumably the same role, what do we stand to gain here? And I know Kruger has some value beyond scoring but.... this is just weird. It wouldn't shock me to see PDG as part of the return to Vegas. That's the only part that would make sense.

That's exactly what I was thinking

Kruger retained at 50% for PDG

Need to get rid of a 4th line depth guy if we're adding one and PDG doesn't really stand to gain from more AHL play imo

 

[Brock Anton]

I could see PDG going the other way as well.