Official tank thread and tanking GDT #12 (Sabres @ Stars)

[TehDoak]

If Arizona shows a heartbeat and wins somewhere I'll feel a whole lot better, but with those schedules and the way the Sabres are sticking around in games against (clearly) superior opponents I feel that we're still going to get edged out.

It feels a little closer to realism than pessimism, but we'll see. It's not as if Arizona hasn't been in their games as well.

Arizona is going to get a few wins down the stretch.

I figure a split with us (we win Thursday, they win on Monday). One of the @Detroit and @Pittsburgh games just seem like "road team wins a game they shouldn't" much like us vs Boston last week. Arizona is due for one of those.

Then you have a home and home vs San Jose. I could realistically see ARZ getting 2 points out of there somehow. San Jose is looks like they have checked out for the year.

Then you have @Calgary @Vancouver and home vs Anaheim. Those @Calgary/@Vancouver are potential to be huge spoiler games. Then the Anaheim Finale could potentially be the ducks resting their starters.

I see potential out there for some points. The big thing is for Buffalo to get the split vs Arizona IMHO 55 points should still clinch it for Buffalo as long as we achieve the split. 3 points in 7 games is perfectly reasonable expectation out of ARZ

 

[fing0rz]

I could see buffalo not winning a single non Toronto/Arionza the rest of the season.

That would be 12 points lost. So only need 3 between those 3 games and Arionzas other 7 games

 

[Uberpecker]

I do as well, but I have found one small potential silver lining. A few of their final games are against tops teams, but those teams have (or will have by then) their playoff spots locked up. As we have seen in past seasons, these teams really do rest a lot of their top players and take their foot off the gas a bit.

If I'm the Ducks (for example) there is no way I am playing Getzlaf in the final game. Let him rest up for the playoff grind, and dont risk him getting hurt in a meaningless (for them) game.

Of course, they way ARZ is playing it may not matter if they sit the whole team. They are painful to watch. They remind me of chasing my kids when they were toddlers. I made it look real good, legs pumping arms flailing, but there was no danger of me ever 'catching' them. Much like when defensemen are 'chasing' down and icing and despite their legs pumping away they just cant seem to get to the puck in time to prevent icing. Keystone cops indeed.

Thanks for the amusing picture you put in my head And that's not even taking into account Smith's extraordinary talent to basically score on himself ("What's that little black thing coming at me? Quick, out of the way!").

Regarding teams with clinched play-off spots: Don't they still have to fight for seed and home-ice advantage? Or has that been eliminated with the new wildcard format?

 

[TehDoak]

Arizona is going to get a few wins down the stretch.

I figure a split with us (we win Thursday, they win on Monday). One of the @Detroit and @Pittsburgh games just seem like "road team wins a game they shouldn't" much like us vs Boston last week. Arizona is due for one of those.

Then you have a home and home vs San Jose. I could realistically see ARZ getting 2 points out of there somehow. San Jose is looks like they have checked out for the year.

Then you have @Calgary @Vancouver and home vs Anaheim. Those @Calgary/@Vancouver are potential to be huge spoiler games. Then the Anaheim Finale could potentially be the ducks resting their starters.

I see potential out there for some points. The big thing is for Buffalo to get the split vs Arizona IMHO 55 points should still clinch it for Buffalo as long as we achieve the split. 3 points in 7 games is perfectly reasonable expectation out of ARZ

I just realized that this post sounds exactly like

 

[MacOfNiagara]

Regarding teams with clinched play-off spots: Don't they still have to fight for seed and home-ice advantage? Or has that been eliminated with the new wildcard format?

In some cases they are fighting for home ice, but as the season winds down to the last few games it is often locked up. In addition, as we have seen first hand in the past, some teams opt to rest and not risk injury to their stars, as a priority over final seeding.

Home ice is important, but a star player out for the playoffs could be devastating. If I am team management in that position, I think I rest my stars and let the seed cards fall where they may. Rested and healthy stars going into the playoffs would be my priority.

 

[MayDay]

3 points in 7 games is perfectly reasonable expectation out of ARZ

Well, yeah, but it would also have been "reasonable to expect" that they'd get more than 1 pt out of their last 8 games, especially since several of those games were winnable.

But they didn't. So what is "reasonable" may not apply to these Coyotes.

 

[Clock]

Arizona is going to get a few wins down the stretch.

I figure a split with us (we win Thursday, they win on Monday). One of the @Detroit and @Pittsburgh games just seem like "road team wins a game they shouldn't" much like us vs Boston last week. Arizona is due for one of those.

I assure you that when that happens, I'll feel much better. Heh. That almost seems like a sunny outlook with how things have been going, however.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Boston game is annoying me

Tell me about it...It is like they did it on purpose.


Well, it looks like we have a 33.5%(correct?) to get McEichel given that we finish second last. I feel better Edmonton is out and even though we have a 66.5% chance of not getting McEichel if we finish second last I still feel pretty good that one of the top two teams win the lottery.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Well, yeah, but it would also have been "reasonable to expect" that they'd get more than 1 pt out of their last 8 games, especially since several of those games were winnable.

But they didn't. So what is "reasonable" may not apply to these Coyotes.

yes but we should be worried about our schedule. Like the Pittsburgh game. Perhaps it is meaningless for them and Malkin and Crosby sit....yikes.

 

[couture23]

yes but we should be worried about our schedule. Like the Pittsburgh game. Perhaps it is meaningless for them and Malkin and Crosby sit....yikes.

I think if Crosby is still gunning for the scoring title he will play.

 

[Uberpecker]

In some cases they are fighting for home ice, but as the season winds down to the last few games it is often locked up. In addition, as we have seen first hand in the past, some teams opt to rest and not risk injury to their stars, as a priority over final seeding.

Home ice is important, but a star player out for the playoffs could be devastating. If I am team management in that position, I think I rest my stars and let the seed cards fall where they may. Rested and healthy stars going into the playoffs would be my priority.

Still, when I look at our team, they just seem way more likely to steal a game with a surprise performance. Nolan seems hell-bent on winning, then we have Larsson, Ennis, Grigo, Varone and lately even Hodgson, who look like they have something to prove.
Coyotes have Rieder, whereas a guy like Doan probably sees the bigger picture and knows the value of an elite draft pick for the team for which he could very well become an executive rather soon.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

I think if Crosby is still gunning for the scoring title he will play.

The jackets, leafs and hurricanes games are meaningless for them. Perhaps that helps. Islanders should be an easy win for them since they are jockeying for playoff position.

I think we need to be concerned about these games.
Leafs
Jackets
Hurricanes
Penguins

Aside for the Arizona games those are the ones that would worry me.

 

[dmband]

Tell me about it...It is like they did it on purpose.


Well, it looks like we have a 33.5%(correct?) to get McEichel given that we finish second last. I feel better Edmonton is out and even though we have a 66.5% chance of not getting McEichel if we finish second last I still feel pretty good that one of the top two teams win the lottery.

Equal odds that a team in the #5 to #9 slot wins the lottery as the odds of #1 or #2 winning it. 33.5% chance makes me sick to my stomach.

 

[couture23]

Equal odds that a team in the #5 to #9 slot wins the lottery as the odds of #1 or #2 winning it. 33.5% chance makes me sick to my stomach.

If it makes you feel any better, the 2nd worst team HAS won the lottery two years in a row

Maybe we will continue the tradition before the system changes.

 

[Uberpecker]

The jackets, leafs and hurricanes games are meaningless for them. Perhaps that helps. Islanders should be an easy win for them since they are jockeying for playoff position.

I think we need to be concerned about these games.
Leafs
Jackets
Hurricanes
Penguins

Aside for the Arizona games those are the ones that would worry me.

That's 6 out of 9 . Which basically means we need to be concerned for the rest of the season.

 

[Dahlin 2 Eichel]

We all know that it's going to be down to the wire to see who gets last place. We can just hope that we lose our puck luck and Arizona can get some. Hope they can steal at least one point tonight. Any point they get (loser point or win) helps our cause.

TM knows what has to be done to get 30th and can just hope that he throws some tank moves in to help the situation.

 

[joshjull]

If it makes you feel any better, the 2nd worst team HAS won the lottery two years in a row

Maybe we will continue the tradition before the system changes.

The 2nd worse team won it with better odds though, 18.8%. Now it's 13.5%.

 

[Team Cozens]

Arizona is going to get a few wins down the stretch.

I figure a split with us (we win Thursday, they win on Monday). One of the @Detroit and @Pittsburgh games just seem like "road team wins a game they shouldn't" much like us vs Boston last week. Arizona is due for one of those.

Then you have a home and home vs San Jose. I could realistically see ARZ getting 2 points out of there somehow. San Jose is looks like they have checked out for the year.

Then you have @Calgary @Vancouver and home vs Anaheim. Those @Calgary/@Vancouver are potential to be huge spoiler games. Then the Anaheim Finale could potentially be the ducks resting their starters.

I see potential out there for some points. The big thing is for Buffalo to get the split vs Arizona IMHO 55 points should still clinch it for Buffalo as long as we achieve the split. 3 points in 7 games is perfectly reasonable expectation out of ARZ

I have a better idea.... THEY win Thursday.... we win Monday.

 

[BornBuffaloFan]

Tell me about it...It is like they did it on purpose.


Well, it looks like we have a 33.5%(correct?) to get McEichel given that we finish second last. I feel better Edmonton is out and even though we have a 66.5% chance of not getting McEichel if we finish second last I still feel pretty good that one of the top two teams win the lottery.

it was interesting that little stretch.... playoff bound teams giving us points, and picking up points as well

 

[BornBuffaloFan]

Mike Schopp‏@Schopptalk·24 secs24 seconds ago
Other #Sabres season Corsi routs:
Last Tuesday in BOS: 98-49 (won).
Feb. 3 in MON: 92-40 (won).
12/23 in DET: 76-20 (scored three goals!!)

 

[Husko]

unfortunately, coyotes twice and toronto is the easiest stretch of the season


on a bright side, we have an uncanny ability to lose to the bad teams and stay close or win against top level teams

The sabres last 6 games is Toronto, Chicago, NYI, Carolina, Columbus, and Pittsburgh

 

[MayDay]

The sabres last 6 games is Toronto, Chicago, NYI, Carolina, Columbus, and Pittsburgh

Win, loss, loss, win, OTL, loss.

I count 5 points in those 6 games (2-3-1)

 

[RiotAct]

My prediction for the game against Arizona on Thursday:

1-0 Shootout win for Buffalo, the SO goes 18 rounds until someone (Mike Weber?) accidentally scores.

 

[Team Cozens]

The sabres last 6 games is Toronto, Chicago, NYI, Carolina, Columbus, and Pittsburgh

I see one win. AFTER we have clinched 30th place. No problem. #believe.

 

[fing0rz]

A 2-6-1 finish with 2 wins in regulation against Arionza means Arionza just needs 2 points in their other 7 games.


If that's how the Sabres finish and they don't get it, props to Arionza for out tanking and they deserve it.

That would mean Arionza wouldn't get 2 points in 15 straight games to end the season. That would be so impressive