Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

[Appleyard]

Anthony Beauvillier is a guy I forgot to put on my list of guys I like in the 2nd. Surprised he is not getting more 1st round talk. Has everything but height really.

 

[Rebels57]

Carlo would be nice as a later 1st, but if we can pull off Marner and Roy, we will be in better shape for it. Really, out of our D prospects, we don't really lack that much size. Sanheim (when he bulks up a bit), Morin and Hagg are all big kids and even someone like Alt with his size could chip in as well. Roy isn't too small, but his game is definitely something you can't ignore.

For the future (if we get 2 1sts):

Marner-Giroux-Voracek
Schenn-Laughton-Simmonds
Read-Couts-NAK
Leier-Cousins-Goulbourne

Morin-Roy
Hagg-Streit
Ghost-Sanheim
Alt/Schenn

That's a fast and unrelenting team. Just a thought.

Read is playing himself down to the 4th line at this point. I wonder if a guy like Oskar Lindblom eventually replaces him on that 3rd line?

 

[Curufinwe]

Leier and NAK, also.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

I still think NAK is a couple years off though. Leier, I think, should be given a shot next season. He kind of makes at least PEB expendable. If he does better in the NHL, he could even replace Read.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I still think NAK is a couple years off though. Leier, I think, should be given a shot next season. He kind of makes at least PEB expendable. If he does better in the NHL, he could even replace Read.

Replacing Read is pushing it. He's having a down year, but the guy has been a consistent 20 goal scorer from the get-go. I would be pretty surprised if Leier ever gets to 20+ with any sort of consisetncy, let alone any time in the next two years or so. Leier as a 4th liner with potential to move up to the third line sounds very possible, but Leier replacing Read seems unlikely, at least from an offensive standpoint.

 

[Curufinwe]

It may be that Read's 20 goal days are behind him. He's on pace for 6.

 

[Cyborg LeClair]

Just watched this, now I know who I want on a line with Claude Giroux

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

It may be that Read's 20 goal days are behind him. He's on pace for 6.

Plus, I think think Leier can keep up at least defensively, but his skating is also way better than Read's.

 

[Sniped]

It may be that Read's 20 goal days are behind him. He's on pace for 6.

Man... did not expect that from Read this year.

 

[TerrapinFlyers]

Laughton has raved about Leier.

 

[ILoveStephanieBrown]

yeah, matt read has been a huge letdown. if we could get a 2nd or 3rd for him, take it and run

 

[FLYguy3911]

Plus, I think think Leier can keep up at least defensively, but his skating is also way better than Read's.

No he's not.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Really? I always thought Leier's best asset was his skating or his 2nd best?

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

It may be that Read's 20 goal days are behind him. He's on pace for 6.

Certainly possible, but I'm not really ready to throw the towel in on him at this point. Guy's have down years. There is no reason to think that he can't rebound next year.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Really? I always thought Leier's best asset was his skating or his 2nd best?

He's not a bad skater but saying "way better than Read's" is what's wrong.

 

[Random Forest]

For those that are interested, I broke down all the forwards drafted between 2005 and 2010 by height and NHL success. I think the results are pretty interesting and confirm my hypothesis that the myth of small players having higher "bust factor" is pretty much bull****.

In short, there appears to be very little relationship.

If anything, drafting a small but talented 5'9er gives you a better chance of success than drafting an averagely talented 6'3" player in the hopes that he'll play on your third line someday.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

For those that are interested, I broke down all the forwards drafted between 2005 and 2010 by height and NHL success. I think the results are pretty interesting and confirm my hypothesis that the myth of small players having higher "bust factor" is pretty much bull****.

In short, there appears to be very little relationship.

If anything, drafting a small but talented 5'9er gives you a better chance of success than drafting an averagely talented 6'3" player in the hopes that he'll play on your third line someday.

Good work but I'd be curious to see what they look by height & weight combined since there's guys like Gerbe who are very short but also very built & weighing around 190 lbs. I don't think there's many guys who could be as successful with Gaudreau's overall stature.

I feel like we're starting to see more overall undersized players drafted earlier in recent years though. It's mostly kids who intend on playing college though.

 

[King Fish]

Coburn = 1st+
Read = 1st or 2nd + 3rd
Streit = Same as read
MDZ = 2nd
Schultz = 3rd-4th
Bellemare = 3rd-4th

It would be nice to acquire a bunch of picks. Realistically I can't see Hextall parting with more than 3 of these players. Coburn+MDZ+Schultz are my bets to get traded. I can't see Hextall parting with Read.

I think you got a hold of some Blueberry Cush! Coburn could get us a 2nd round pick, same with Streit. Lucky to get a 3rd for Read, ditto for the rest.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I'm not one to worry about size if a guy has the speed, skill, and/or smarts to overcome it. Gaudreau checks all 3 boxes. I never really had a doubt he would be a good player in this league.

Gostisbehere? Same thing. He can fly, really skilled, and knows how to avoid taking a direct hit.

The one thing about that chart is most smaller guys are generally "skill" guys. They just don't make it to the NHL level if they aren't putting up points so those numbers don't really surprise me. "Top 6 or bust guys". You won't find many on the third and forth lines. They are going to be put in positions to score.

 

[Random Forest]

Good work but I'd be curious to see what they look by height & weight combined since there's guys like Gerbe who are very short but also very built & weighing around 190 lbs. I don't think there's many guys who could be as successful with Gaudreau's overall stature.

I feel like we're starting to see more overall undersized players drafted earlier in recent years though. It's mostly kids who intend on playing college though.

The thing is, though, guys like Gerbe and Gaudreau are such extreme outliers that even expanding to include weight likely wouldn't shed much more light. There's only a handful of guys drafted who are that short per decade.


What I'm getting at is the 5'9, 5'10 type guys who often slip because of (unfounded) concerns about size. Size just isn't the prohibitive factor that people make it out to be. These guys bust at pretty much the exact same rate as the bigger guys do. Size doesn't make a pick inherently more risky than any other.

In other words, you know when people say "high risk, high reward" in reference to small, skill guys? Yeah, I'm saying that's a load of BS. The inherent risk is the same. To put practical names to my point, guys like Martin Reway and Brendan Gallagher make fantastic mid round selections. These are players just as talented as guys drafted FAR ahead of them who fell because of size despite their being no tangible evidence that small players make riskier picks. Hell, Giroux likely wouldn't have been on the board as long as he was if there weren't size concerns.


A team like Montreal has made a killing over the past several years using mid round picks on guys foolishly passed on by the rest of the league. Reway, Gallagher, and Andrighetto are all looking like very astute picks now. And Daniel Audette (2014) is looking like another one. I just think managers and scouts are far too close minded and reluctant to do away with traditional mentalities.

 

[BillDineen]

The thing is, though, guys like Gerbe and Gaudreau are such extreme outliers that even expanding to include weight likely wouldn't shed much more light. There's only a handful of guys drafted who are that short per decade.


What I'm getting at is the 5'9, 5'10 type guys who often slip because of (unfounded) concerns about size. Size just isn't the prohibitive factor that people make it out to be. These guys bust at pretty much the exact same rate as the bigger guys do. Size doesn't make a pick inherently more risky than any other.

In other words, you know when people say "high risk, high reward" in reference to small, skill guys? Yeah, I'm saying that's a load of BS. The inherent risk is the same. To put practical names to my point, guys like Martin Reway and Brendan Gallagher make fantastic mid round selections. These are players just as talented as guys drafted FAR ahead of them who fell because of size despite their being no tangible evidence that small players make riskier picks. Hell, Giroux likely wouldn't have been on the board as long as he was if there weren't size concerns.


A team like Montreal has made a killing over the past several years using mid round picks on guys foolishly passed on by the rest of the league. Reway, Gallagher, and Andrighetto are all looking like very astute picks now. And Daniel Audette (2014) is looking like another one. I just think managers and scouts are far too close minded and reluctant to do away with traditional mentalities.

But Berube wants a big body to play with G and Voracek.

Edit: At least with Ghost and Friedman you do have an example of Flyers going for smaller skilled guys.

 

[Appleyard]

I imagine the Flyers pick ~8-13...

Players who will be almost certainly be gone by #8:

McDavid
Eichel
Hanifin
Strome
Killington
Marner

Guys who could still be there but could be gone:

Zacha
Crouse
Barzal
Werenski
Rantanen

Guys who I imagine will almost certainly be there at #8 and will be virtually certain to go in the 1st round (likely all before pick #25):

J. Roy
Provorov
Sprong
Svechnikov
Konency
Merkley
Connor
White

 

[Curufinwe]

If we are around #11 again, I wouldn't mind Roy.

 

[daynus]

The almost certainly list, yah that is impressive. But the could could list is impressive as well. And the could could list is where I believe we will be picking. And with a gm that is working on getting us the cup and our scouts hitting homeruns, this is gonna be exciting.
So what do we have for picks in this sexy draft? Is it 1,3,4,4,5,6?
I hope grossman recovers, stays healthy, so we can add to the list.

 

[Newest sens fan]

Just watched this, now I know who I want on a line with Claude Giroux

And, he plays G's spot on the PP. Our PP2 may not suck ass if we somehow get him.