Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt III | Winter meetings are over. Still waiting for stuff to happen

[Garlando]

LeMahieu vs Semien;

Might be an unpopular opinion but I'm wondering if Semien would be a good investment on 1-2 year deal similar to when LeMahieu was a free agent 2 years ago. Yankees got him on a 2 year deal worth 24M.

Major League Leaderboards » 2020 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Even if you remove both player's best season from the last 3 years, Semien has a his cumulative WAR of 5 fWAR to LeMahieu's 4.6. Everyone talks about LeMaheiu's 2019 but Semien was better than LeMahieu in 2019. They had the same bat 137 wRC+ to 136 wRC+.

Even over the last 2 years, Semien has a higher WAR.

Major League Leaderboards » 2020 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

-Semien is the same age as LeMahieu when he was a free agent in 2018
-Semien is 14th in fWAR among all position players from 2018 to 2020
-Semien premium position over LeMahieu's 2B and an average to below average 3B
-Has a recent 7 fWAR season in 2019; even his 1.2 fWAR season last year would have tied him with Gurriel for 3rd among position players; extrapolate that to 3.5 fWAR over 162 games
-good FB%, low soft contact

Zips predicts a 5 fWAR season for Semien next season and a 3.3 fWAR season for LeMahieu.

I like LeMahieu but not at a 4+ year commitment worth 20ish million a year.

To me, rather than paying for what LeMahieu has done by committing 80-100M on a 4-5 year commitment while losing picks; why not find the next LeMahieu with a safer investment along with keeping your picks on a guy like Semien?

I am open to the idea of potentially pivoting to a guy like Semien if the price is appropriate for the reasons stated above, he wasn't offered a qualifying offer and therefore wouldn't cause the Jays to give up draft picks to sign him, and his lack of track record of above-average offensive performance will limit the $ amount he can command.

Looking at Semien's profile, he's posted just 1 year of league average or better offensive value in his career when he posted a 137 wRC+ in 2019 (100 is considered average). In that 2019 season, he posted a .285/.369/.522 batting line with 33 HRs and 10 SBs over a ridiculous 747 PAs while managing an impressive plate discipline profile including an 11.6% walk rate along with a 13.7% strikeout rate. That well-rounded offensive profile along with strong defensive metrics at SS led to a 3rd place MVP finish.

He followed that up with a rough 2020 season in which he batted just .223/.305/.374 with 7 HRs and 4 SBs over 236 PAs which was good for a below-average 91 wRC+. If you look under the hood though, it wasn't all bad...he really struggled initially over the first two weeks of the season, posting a .190/.215/.238 batting line with 0 HRs and striking out at a 30.8% clip which all contributed to just a 24 wRC+. After that, he posted a respectable .236/.339/.432 batting line with 7 HRs and 4 SBs while managing the strike zone much more efficiently with a 13.5% walk rate along with a 17.5% strikeout rate. All that good for a 117 wRC+ in spite of just a .252 BABIP. Add in his impressive .371/.450/.571 playoff line with the A's and that moves his wRC+ minus those brutal two weeks to 133 which is definitely interesting and makes me believe his growth is real.

In fact, if you look at his last 1000 plate appearances (closer to two full seasons that one), he's been about 25% better than league average at the plate, and that coupled with above-average defense at SS makes him a very valuable player that I think should be able to produce 3+ WAR annually over the next few years. In a depressed market, perhaps the Jays can get him for around $50 million over 3 years, which would I think would be valuable to him (remember if he takes a 1-year prove-it deal, the SS heavy class FA of next year would be stiff competition and therefore I think some cost certainty would be valuable to him) and the team as an improvement without huge money investment, loss of player assets, and also not fully blocking the future (Groshans/Martin).

The fit with the team would be interesting though, do you sign him to play SS and move Bo to 3rd (stop suggesting Biggio play 3rd everyone, he doesn't have the arm to do so at a high enough level) or do you just play Semien at 3rd and let him be an elite defensive 3rd baseman who can help Bo in the hole? I would lean more to the latter but that also puts more importance on his bat being an asset as he's playing the less important defensive position.

 

[hockeywiz542]

The Blue Jays struck out on Francisco Lindor and Tomoyuki Sugano, but fans shouldn’t panic. Unless George Springer gets away, too | The Star

If the Mets really want Springer, there isn’t much the Jays can do to stop it from happening short of giving in to his demands, reportedly in excess of $150 million across five seasons. The Mets already had the advantage of location, with Springer born in nearby Connecticut. Following the addition of Lindor, they can now also claim to be a legitimate World Series contender. Toronto’s future might be bright, but it’s nothing compared to the spotlight in the Big Apple. A tie, or anything remotely close to it, goes to the Mets.

The Jays must hope that adding Lindor will make the Mets less inclined to come forward with a comparable offer. Perhaps there’s a chance the Mets will spread the rest of their resources across the field, instead of one significant move. Or maybe the Mets take the middle ground and target the second-best option in centre, Jackie Bradley Jr., like they did by signing catcher James McCann instead of J.T. Realmuto.

The early reporting out of New York has done little to provide clarity. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman stated the Mets remain engaged with Springer’s representatives even after Thursday’s trade, while SNY’s Andy Martino cited sources claiming a deal is less likely than it was before because it requires cutting costs in other areas.

Missing out on Springer would be the real loss for Ross Atkins and company, not Lindor.

The Jays already have a star shortstop in Bo Bichette and while he had some defensive issues each of the last two years, he’s the best player this team employs, his future remains bright and he hasn’t done anything to lose his job. The 22-year-old deserves another opportunity to prove he can handle the position, which he is adamant about occupying. There are bigger areas of need elsewhere:

• Centre field remains a black hole, and next year’s market doesn’t offer much promise if the Jays miss out on Springer.

• The rotation requires at least one additional front-line piece and a slew of arms are needed in the bullpen.

• An infielder will have to be found, but it doesn’t have to be at shortstop. It could just as easily be at second or third base. Longer term, the Jays have infield prospects Austin Martin and Jordan Groshans on the way.

.....................

It’s foolish to evaluate a team’s off-season midstream, when most of the work is still ongoing. While missing out on Lindor, Yu Darvish and Lance Lynn might seem like a big deal right now, it won’t mean much in long run if the Jays end up signing one of the Big Four — Springer, Realmuto, D.J. LeMahieu or Trevor Bauer — and upgrading elsewhere.

Thursday’s blockbuster trade wasn’t the big blow to the Blue Jays that many people made it out to be. There are plenty of ways this team can be bolstered in the weeks ahead, but missing out on Lindor means one less alternative the team has at its disposal. If it happens again with Springer, that’s when the real trouble begins.

 

[Discoverer]

Semien and Turner are the two guys who don't get enough credit as potential impact additions (Semien moreso, I guess, because of his age). I think they're generally seen as secondary free agents, but they would actually be much bigger additions than that.

Semien is right there with LeMahieu for me, and once you factor in the asking price, QO, and positional flexibility of adding someone who can play SS, I would easily prefer Semien.

 

[Bjindaho]

Semien and Turner are the two guys who don't get enough credit as potential impact additions (Semien moreso, I guess, because of his age). I think they're generally seen as secondary free agents, but they would actually be much bigger additions than that.

Semien is right there with LeMahieu for me, and once you factor in the asking price, QO, and positional flexibility of adding someone who can play SS, I would easily prefer Semien.

I love the possibility that Bo's days off could mean that we still have a starter calibre SS on the field. If Semien plays 3B regularly, I would play Vladdy at third on Bo's days off.

 

[AllDay28]

damn, wish i could find my old posts which said Toronto would come up short but get really really close..and the media would let us know.. runner up on Lindor .. its begun..

 

[phillipmike]

 

[SDig14]

 

[Puckstuff]

Marcus Semien
Last 2 years
FWAR over 162 = 6.6

Francisco Lindor
Last 2 years
FWAR over 162 = 4.9

Lindor is still better overall (more proven track record) but over the last 2 years Semien has been right there with him and even better. Their actually similar in a lot of ways being + power + defence shortstops.

If we could get him, I'll be just fine keeping Gurriel Jr and adding Semien over Lindor and losing Gurriel (or Groshans+/ whatever the ask was).

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Wow.. good deal for both sides imo. Tatis is going to be a star for a long time.

 

[Woodman19]

Wow.. good deal for both sides imo. Tatis is going to be a star for a long time.

If healthy... 11 years is a long time lol

 

[TheBeastCoast]

If healthy... 11 years is a long time lol

He is young enough that you are essentially buying his entire prime and presumably let someone else give him the bloated late 30's contract.

 

[Discoverer]

Just so we're clear... Tatis has one more year at league minimum followed by three arb years. If you assume $10-20-30 million for his arb years (which would be a record amount for three arb years), that means the Padres are paying $260 million ($37.5 million each) for seven free agent years.

It's an aggressive move for the team and I'm not suggesting it's a bad move by any means... but most of these pre-arb long term deals that we see involve the player giving up some earning potential for guarantee money. Unless there's a lot more to it, this seems like the Padres paying full value long term and getting nothing in return.

 

[SDig14]

Well, you could use up the next 4 years until arbitration is over, but he is ad food as he has been, then he's still asking for an 11-12 year deal 4 years from at perhaps even more money. Do you want to give him an 11 year deal at 27 years old or 22 years old?

You're right in that they're not really getting a ton of value by extending him now, I just think what you are guaranteeing is 11 years of prime baseball for a start who turned 22 years old a week ago. At 33 years old you could walk away and not be stuck with the years from 33 to 37 I guess.

 

[Epictetus]

It's probably just them saying this guy is our franchise player and he's got MVP and face of baseball potential, our fanbase loves him, so we're not going to screw around.

 

[Morgs]

Well, you could use up the next 4 years until arbitration is over, but he is ad food as he has been, then he's still asking for an 11-12 year deal 4 years from at perhaps even more money. Do you want to give him an 11 year deal at 27 years old or 22 years old?

You're right in that they're not really getting a ton of value by extending him now, I just think what you are guaranteeing is 11 years of prime baseball for a start who turned 22 years old a week ago. At 33 years old you could walk away and not be stuck with the years from 33 to 37 I guess.

There's nothing wrong with the deal. It's not even bad value when taking everything including inflation into consideration. In reality its more likely a very good deal.

It's just nothing like we've ever seen from pre-arb contracts like Discoverer said. Albies got 7 years, 35M (lol so bad for him), Acuna got 8 years, 100M. These deals happen so rarely, but you ALWAYS see a significant discount. Tatis is basically making 29M a season for 11 years when he shouldn't be making that much for five more seasons based on his control.

 

[Discoverer]

Exactly. I'm not necessarily arguing it's a bad deal, just that the total amount puts pretty much all the risk on the team side, while most of these deals have both sides sharing the risk.

 

[Leafin]

Kris Bryant reportedly available. That would be a huge pickup. Could be a Donaldson level pickup for us. Would really solidify 3b. Hopefully get a contract extension done before gutting our farm.

 

[phillipmike]

From a Cubs guy;

 

[phillipmike]

 

[theaub]

Bryant/Baez/Contreras get it done Atkins

 

[phillipmike]

 

[SDig14]

I'm afraid all I want is for the Jays to do something and then I'm afraid once they do it I won't like what they did, ha.

 

[theaub]

Would you move Groshans as the main piece for Bryant + Baez?

 

[Discoverer]

So not Springer. Good!

 

[Discoverer]

Would you move Groshans as the main piece for Bryant + Baez?

Groshans alone is probably an overpayment. You probably need someone like Hendriks, Contreras, or Happ - guys with multiple years of control - to justify giving up Groshans.