Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt III | Winter meetings are over. Still waiting for stuff to happen

[phillipmike]

Would you move Groshans as the main piece for Bryant + Baez?

Nope. For me I prefer to trade our AAA excess for 1 year rentals. If not then I’m sticking to the free agent market. I can get players for nothing but money

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Nope. For me I prefer to trade our AAA excess for 1 year rentals. If not then I’m sticking to the free agent market. I can get players for nothing but money

I mean it is nice in theory but the reality is that if we want to add a top player it might have to be done by trade. And if you are trading for Kris Bryant it isnt going to be excess AAA guys. It definitely shouldnt be top prospects like Martin or Groshans but their is a middle ground.

 

[Morgs]

Bryant + Baez although fun would be a pretty big waste of asset(s) unless we can get Baez to sign an extension. Most likely pass on what Bryant is probably asking for in an extension. Even then I doubt I'd be willing to give up anyone in our top-10, let alone top-5. I'd MAYBE do Kirk/Moreno but that's only because we have such insane depth at the position. Both coming off horrible years, but there is nobody more fun in the entire league than Javy.

 

[Discoverer]

I mean it is nice in theory but the reality is that if we want to add a top player it might have to be done by trade. And if you are trading for Kris Bryant it isnt going to be excess AAA guys. It definitely shouldnt be top prospects like Martin or Groshans but their is a middle ground.

With one year of control and coming off the season he just had, Bryant isn't going to bring much back.

I suspect Chicago bundles him with someone like Hendriks or something to at least give the semblance of having gotten a good return for Bryant.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[TheBeastCoast]

With one year of control and coming off the season he just had, Bryant isn't going to bring much back.

I suspect Chicago bundles him with someone like Hendriks or something to at least give the semblance of having gotten a good return for Bryant.

Yeah I mean I dont think Bryant is worth much but it would be more so a young high upside guy that is far away then AAA scraps. It shouldnt be touching our top 10 though. You add on then definitely that changes it.

 

[SDig14]

The other issue is teams aren't lining up to pay Bryant $19 million this year. So you're trading for a rental coming off a bad year and also taking on that cash that apparently the Cubs and lots of other teams don't want to pay. His trade value shouldn't be that much to be honest.

Would be a good idea for the Jays, we need a 3B this year and if he's good can look at signing and if not you can try to find a longer term 3B next year. Or Groshans or Martin could be ready in 2 years so could extend or find another 1 year option.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'd be all over Bryant if the price was cheap, but my thoughts of cheap may still be underestimating his value.

 

[Discoverer]

I'd be all over Bryant if the price was cheap, but my thoughts of cheap may still be underestimating his value.

Probably not. His value is pretty low.

 

[landy92mack29]

Even though he'd almost certainly be a 1 year rental the Jays should be all over Bryant if it costs a Pardinho, Lopez or lower prospect. Personally don't put much stock on players down years from last year given no spring training and limited games. Can play 3B and fill in a corner OF spot when needed

 

[dredeye]

Kris Bryant reportedly available. That would be a huge pickup. Could be a Donaldson level pickup for us. Would really solidify 3b. Hopefully get a contract extension done before gutting our farm.

We wouldn’t have to gut the farm for him. Most would think the cost acquire him would be minimal. We’ve talked about him a bunch. I’d like them to pursue him. But who knows maybe the Cubs are still trying to get a lot for him

 

[Leafin]

I wonder what an extension looks like for Bryant. Coming off a down year but prior he’s been elite. Might get him on a decent number. Or more likely he bets on himself in his contract year and cashes in.

Bryant and a pitcher would be nice.

 

[Leafin]

I think going the free agent route is the way to go unless we get a really good deal. Semien + Odorizzi cost no prospects, no draft pick comp.

 

[dredeye]

Marcus Semien
Last 2 years
FWAR over 162 = 6.6

Francisco Lindor
Last 2 years
FWAR over 162 = 4.9

Lindor is still better overall (more proven track record) but over the last 2 years Semien has been right there with him and even better. Their actually similar in a lot of ways being + power + defence shortstops.

If we could get him, I'll be just fine keeping Gurriel Jr and adding Semien over Lindor and losing Gurriel (or Groshans+/ whatever the ask was).

I’d be happy if we started to pursue Semien now. He is one guy we haven’t been tied to at all

 

[trellaine201]

I say Bryant to the Mets.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Think As would move Chapman? Probably not to us, right? lol

 

[Epictetus]

He's not expensive yet.

 

[Garlando]

I think I only entertain a potential Kris Bryant deal if SP Kyle Hendricks is included. To me, Marcus Semien can provide pretty similar value to Bryant without the cost of prospects and for a cheaper price financially. Kyle Hendricks added to Bryant intrigues me though...

Despite Hendricks averaging just 87 MPH on his fastball, he's proven to be one of the best, most durable, and consistent starters in the game over the last 5 years. Let's take a look at exactly where Hendricks ranks since 2015:

- 19.5 fWAR ranks 11th
- 3.18 ERA ranks 12th
- 3.55 FIP ranks t-23rd with Hyun-Jin Ryu
- 965 innings pitched ranks 9th
- 86.5 MPH average exit velocity against ranks 3rd
- 28.9% hard hit rate ranks 10th
- 5.4% walk rate ranks t-17th with Hyun Jin Ryu

He's clearly a master of limiting quality contact and limiting free-passes. Notably, Hendricks also touts a 3.12 ERA in 57.2 postseason innings pitched for the Cubs. In the 2016 NLCS and World Series, he posted a 0.83 ERA in 21.2 IP. He’s not only been successful in the regular season, but he’s also dominated in the postseason.

With him on a team-friendly deal through 2024 worth $14 million annually, he also represents a terrific value financially. I'm not sure the Cubs would be willing to move Hendricks after moving Darvish earlier in the offseason, but to me, Hendricks is a potential sneaky target that really interests me.

 

[hockeywiz542]

The Blue Jays need to do something big as spring training approaches | The Star

The big four remain available. Centre-fielder George Springer appears to be the best fit, while infielder DJ LeMahieu, catcher J.T. Realmuto and right-hander Trevor Bauer have drawn interest as well. Premium options such as reliever Liam Hendriks and starter Jake Odorizzi exist but the only players who fall into the Jays’ stated goal of adding “high impact” pieces can be found at the top of the market.

The asking prices are predictably scary but it’s the cost of doing business. Teams looking for bargains don’t engage with top free agents any more than people head to Yorkville for sales. The Jays’ interest is real, it’s the willingness to meet demands that remains in question.

...................

With the high cost comes a ton of risk. These are the type of contracts that define the reputation of a front office. They can either move the franchise into contender status or add an overpriced contract to the books that limits future deals. Sometimes they do both.

The beautiful thing about the roster assembled by Atkins and president Mark Shapiro is that the Jays entered the off-season with all doors open to them. They had the prospect capital to pull off a big trade and enough cash to make a significant signing. Every possible scenario was on the table. That’s undeniably positive but it comes with heightened expectations.

At this point, the Jays have no choice but to do something big, even if that means going outside their comfort zone. Atkins and Shapiro began the off-season talking up their financial flexibility and desire to make a significant add. Skepticism about their intentions grows every time the organization finishes as a runner-up in negotiations.

The biggest issue attracting a member of the big four is that it doesn’t seem Toronto is the preferred destination for any of them. It’s reasonable to assume Springer would prefer the Mets considering their proximity to his hometown and the buzz surrounding new owner Steve Cohen. LeMahieu is inclined to work something out with the Yankees and while Bauer has been toying with every fan base this winter, he’s gone out of his way multiple times to praise the San Diego Padres.

Money can change everything, and the Jays are one of the few teams with a lot of it to spend. Players are using them for leverage in other negotiations, but Toronto can apply pressure of its own. And, with a projected payroll, in the range of $80 million, this is one off-season when the Jays can do something big. It’s sitting on the sidelines as the perennial runner up they can no longer afford.

 

[Eyedea]

Marcus Semien
Last 2 years
FWAR over 162 = 6.6

Francisco Lindor
Last 2 years
FWAR over 162 = 4.9

Lindor is still better overall (more proven track record) but over the last 2 years Semien has been right there with him and even better. Their actually similar in a lot of ways being + power + defence shortstops.

If we could get him, I'll be just fine keeping Gurriel Jr and adding Semien over Lindor and losing Gurriel (or Groshans+/ whatever the ask was).

Semien’s a fine player who significantly improved his defence at SS in recent years, but he’s still a tier or two below Lindor in pretty much every facet of the game.

 

[Leafin]

Also a tier or 2 cheaper to sign and only costs money.

I’m all for using just money this offseason. Keep our top prospects and see what we have in them. That is of course unless a deal too good to pass up comes up.

 

[Discoverer]

Semien’s a fine player who significantly improved his defence at SS in recent years, but he’s still a tier or two below Lindor in pretty much every facet of the game.

Over the last three years they're within a single win - 13.7 fWAR for Lindor, 12.6 fWAR for Semien (with Semien's elite season coming in 2019 vs Lindor's in 2018).

Lindor has more of a track record and is younger, of course, but the perception that Lindor is an elite superstar and Semien is a second-tier free agent is a bit extreme.

 

[Eyedea]

Over the last three years they're within a single win - 13.7 fWAR for Lindor, 12.6 fWAR for Semien (with Semien's elite season coming in 2019 vs Lindor's in 2018).

Lindor has more of a track record and is younger, of course, but the perception that Lindor is an elite superstar and Semien is a second-tier free agent is a bit extreme.

I don’t think it’s extreme if you look at how his wins are distributed. Semien has a total of 1 year >= 4 fWAR, 1 year over 100 wRC+, 1 year over 30 homeruns, 1 year over .330 obp. He saw his K rate slash and ISO spike tremendously in 2019, that one year where everything went right for him. Maybe he can somewhat replicate that success again, but all I see is likely a 2-3 win guy. A fine player, not near the top 2 tiers IMO.

 

[landy92mack29]

Semien had one monster year other than that he hasn't been anything special

 

[Discoverer]

Semien had one monster year other than that he hasn't been anything special

The year before his monster year he was worth 3.8 fWAR. This past year he was on pace for 3.6 fWAR.

He's a really, really good player.