Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt III | Winter meetings are over. Still waiting for stuff to happen

[Discoverer]

Assuming that the Blue Jays add zero starting pitching this offseason (which I would put the odds at just about zero), the rotation would likely be Ryu-Pearson-Ray-Roark with one of Hatch, Merryweather, Kay, etc. being in the battle for the 5th spot.

Stripling would be a possibility, too.

 

[selltrade]

Still tkink Jays resign Walker

 

[BAM]

Think the Jays should turn their attention to Bauer, Springer seems like a good option for the Mets especially after their moves. Bauer + 1 of Tanaka/Paxton goes a long way to shoring up the rotation. Have more faith in the Jays offence as is taking the necessary developmental steps as opposed to the rotation doing the same.

1.Ryu
2.Bauer
3.Tanaka/Paxton
4. Pearson
5. Stripling/Ray/Roark/whoever

If Paxton/Tanaka have an injury free season to their standards and Pearson pans out as expected, that might be a top 3-5 rotation in baseball imo.

 

[TF97]

Stripling would be a possibility, too.

Honestly I forget he’s a Blue Jay at least once a day. But yes, he’d likely get the 5th spot.

 

[smitty10]

Think the Jays should turn their attention to Bauer, Springer seems like a good option for the Mets especially after their moves. Bauer + 1 of Tanaka/Paxton goes a long way to shoring up the rotation. Have more faith in the Jays offence as is taking the necessary developmental steps as opposed to the rotation doing the same.

1.Ryu
2.Bauer
3.Tanaka/Paxton
4. Pearson
5. Stripling/Ray/Roark/whoever

If Paxton/Tanaka have an injury free season to their standards and Pearson pans out as expected, that might be a top 3-5 rotation in baseball imo.

From what Bauer has been saying the Jays are already focused on him.

 

[Leafin]

Moustakas would be a pretty good short term stop gap to Groshans/Martin.

How is his defense at 3b? Noticed the Reds had him at 2b most of last season.

 

[Gargyn]

Think the Jays should turn their attention to Bauer, Springer seems like a good option for the Mets especially after their moves. Bauer + 1 of Tanaka/Paxton goes a long way to shoring up the rotation. Have more faith in the Jays offence as is taking the necessary developmental steps as opposed to the rotation doing the same.

1.Ryu
2.Bauer
3.Tanaka/Paxton
4. Pearson
5. Stripling/Ray/Roark/whoever

If Paxton/Tanaka have an injury free season to their standards and Pearson pans out as expected, that might be a top 3-5 rotation in baseball imo.

Who plays 3B? Please don’t say Guerrero.

 

[leafsleafs]

People tend to forget that were this a regular season, the Jays would not have sniffed the playoffs. The bullpen, such as it was, was on oxygen two thirds through an abbreviated season. Starters were just not good enough.

Sure it would have been great to see Lindor, and to a lesser extent, Carrasco, in Jays uniforms this year.

Lindor would be a long term asset, not sure about the salary outlay, and how that might mitigate against other signings, if he, as he justifiably would, choose to go long term.

Jays are still a few years away from seriously competing. Look at the Dodgers roster.

I am not a prospect porn guy, but I just think patience is a virtue right now. Don’t sell the farm. Bring in a couple of vets to eat some innings at league average levels. Let the core learn how to play the game at the major league level for at least another year, cuz they need work, but the potential is off the charts.

Make a splash signing, though. If only to appease the fanbase the Jays have unnecessarily, in my mind, proffered to them. Can’t look like chimp, now. A Springer or DJL would provide some much needed leadership on the field. No assets, other than money, involved.

If the Jays could get Springer or DJL, a couple of crappy starters that can get to the fifth consistently, and one or two roulette relievers, I’d consider the off season a success.

No this is not a throw-away season. It is about watching the core develop.

My take.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Losing free agents due to your team, due money, due to the division, due to geography is one thing but due to competition with an inferior teammate/friend?

Blame ownership and the front office all you want but they arent the only reason for the lack of a deal. It takes 2 to tango and some teams and players refuse your offers for reasons outside of your control.

Seems pretty in line with what we've heard. He didn't want to compete with Yamaguchi for a roster spot in AAA, which is why he wanted the no minors clause

 

[Muston Atthews]

We need two of the big guys.

 

[BAM]

Who plays 3B? Please don’t say Guerrero.

That's up to the Jays, they could try Guerrero there. I personally would look at a guy like Bryant and see if you can get him for cheap. I personally would stay away from Arenado...I feel like he's Tulo 2.0 waiting to happen in that his numbers with the Rockies don't translate as well with the Jays.

3B doesn't take away from the fact that the Jays most pressing area of need is in the rotation and there is still a legit ace on the market that has been in contact with the Jays coaches.

 

[phillipmike]

Where might Jays turn after missing on Lindor?

Where could Jays turn after missing out on Lindor?
Jan. 8: The Blue Jays’ biggest move this offseason has been re-signing Robbie Ray to a one-year, $8 million contract in November, but the club remains on the lookout for impact players. MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince hears that Toronto was the runner-up for Francisco Lindor, who was traded to the Mets along with right-hander Carlos Carrasco on Thursday.

After missing out on Lindor, it will be interesting to see where the Blue Jays turn next. They’ve been connected to George Springer, but his reported asking price of $175 million (per SNY’s Andy Martino) may be well out of their price range. Perhaps Springer will soften his demands if the Mets back off their pursuit following Thursday’s trade, which could add more than $30 million to the 2021 payroll.
We could also see the Blue Jays ramp up their efforts to sign DJ LeMahieu away from the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers have made it clear that re-signing LeMahieu is their top priority, but the two sides haven’t been able to come to an agreement yet.

A potential dark-horse option for Toronto? Rockies shortstop Trevor Story. Like Lindor, Story can become a free agent next offseason. Colorado is coming off a 26-34 season. The Dodgers are the reigning World Series champions, meanwhile, and the Rockies have watched the Padres improve considerably with the additions of Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Ha-Seong Kim.

They’d surely prefer to trade Nolan Arenado, who has $199 million remaining on his contract and can opt out of his deal after 2021, but Story will undoubtedly fetch a better return.

According to Castrovince, the Blue Jays' offer for Lindor may have had a higher ceiling, but Cleveland chose New York's package -- infielders Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario, right-hander Josh Wolf and outfielder Isaiah Greene -- because it balanced short- and long-term help. Could the Blue Jays make the Rockies the same offer they put on the table for Lindor?

 

[Discoverer]

People tend to forget that were this a regular season, the Jays would not have sniffed the playoffs. The bullpen, such as it was, was on oxygen two thirds through an abbreviated season. Starters were just not good enough.

Sure it would have been great to see Lindor, and to a lesser extent, Carrasco, in Jays uniforms this year.

Lindor would be a long term asset, not sure about the salary outlay, and how that might mitigate against other signings, if he, as he justifiably would, choose to go long term.

Jays are still a few years away from seriously competing. Look at the Dodgers roster.

I am not a prospect porn guy, but I just think patience is a virtue right now. Don’t sell the farm. Bring in a couple of vets to eat some innings at league average levels. Let the core learn how to play the game at the major league level for at least another year, cuz they need work, but the potential is off the charts.

Make a splash signing, though. If only to appease the fanbase the Jays have unnecessarily, in my mind, proffered to them. Can’t look like chimp, now. A Springer or DJL would provide some much needed leadership on the field. No assets, other than money, involved.

If the Jays could get Springer or DJL, a couple of crappy starters that can get to the fifth consistently, and one or two roulette relievers, I’d consider the off season a success.

No this is not a throw-away season. It is about watching the core develop.

My take.

Last year, the Jays finished 11th in baseball with one of the youngest rosters in the league and a handful of blatantly obvious holes. They're quite possibly a top ten team just by letting the young players develop. If they fill a couple of those holes with decent players, they're easily a playoff contender, and if they make a couple bigger moves they're one of the top teams in the league.

They're absolutely not a few years away from contention. They shouldn't sell the farm, by any means, but they should be starting to add aggressively now.

 

[phillipmike]

LeMahieu vs Semien;

Might be an unpopular opinion but I'm wondering if Semien would be a good investment on 1-2 year deal similar to when LeMahieu was a free agent 2 years ago. Yankees got him on a 2 year deal worth 24M.

Major League Leaderboards » 2020 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Even if you remove both player's best season from the last 3 years, Semien has a his cumulative WAR of 5 fWAR to LeMahieu's 4.6. Everyone talks about LeMaheiu's 2019 but Semien was better than LeMahieu in 2019. They had the same bat 137 wRC+ to 136 wRC+.

Even over the last 2 years, Semien has a higher WAR.

Major League Leaderboards » 2020 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

-Semien is the same age as LeMahieu when he was a free agent in 2018
-Semien is 14th in fWAR among all position players from 2018 to 2020
-Semien premium position over LeMahieu's 2B and an average to below average 3B
-Has a recent 7 fWAR season in 2019; even his 1.2 fWAR season last year would have tied him with Gurriel for 3rd among position players; extrapolate that to 3.5 fWAR over 162 games
-good FB%, low soft contact

Zips predicts a 5 fWAR season for Semien next season and a 3.3 fWAR season for LeMahieu.

I like LeMahieu but not at a 4+ year commitment worth 20ish million a year.

To me, rather than paying for what LeMahieu has done by committing 80-100M on a 4-5 year commitment while losing picks; why not find the next LeMahieu with a safer investment along with keeping your picks on a guy like Semien?

 

[SDig14]

LeMahieu vs Semien;

Might be an unpopular opinion but I'm wondering if Semien would be a good investment on 1-2 year deal similar to when LeMahieu was a free agent 2 years ago. Yankees got him on a 2 year deal worth 24M.

Major League Leaderboards » 2020 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

Even if you remove both player's best season from the last 3 years, Semien has a his cumulative WAR of 5 fWAR to LeMahieu's 4.6. Everyone talks about LeMaheiu's 2019 but Semien was better than LeMahieu in 2019. They had the same bat 137 wRC+ to 136 wRC+.

Even over the last 2 years, Semien has a higher WAR.

Major League Leaderboards » 2020 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

-Semien is the same age as LeMahieu when he was a free agent in 2018
-Semien is 14th in fWAR among all position players from 2018 to 2020
-Semien premium position over LeMahieu's 2B and an average to below average 3B
-Has a recent 7 fWAR season in 2019; even his 1.2 fWAR season last year would have tied him with Gurriel for 3rd among position players; extrapolate that to 3.5 fWAR over 162 games
-good FB%, low soft contact

Zips predicts a 5 fWAR season for Semien next season and a 3.3 fWAR season for LeMahieu.

I like LeMahieu but not at a 4+ year commitment worth 20ish million a year.

To me, rather than paying for what LeMahieu has done by committing 80-100M on a 4-5 year commitment while losing picks; why not find the next LeMahieu with a safer investment along with keeping your picks on a guy like Semien?

Is his defense good enough at short to move Bo? If not, or they're equal and you don't see it worth pissing Bo off, would he play 2B and you move someone else?

I think the plus with DJ is that he can play 3B, which I'm not convinced either Semien or Biggio can do well.

 

[phillipmike]

Is his defense good enough at short to move Bo? If not, or they're equal and you don't see it worth pissing Bo off, would he play 2B and you move someone else?

I think the plus with DJ is that he can play 3B, which I'm not convinced either Semien or Biggio can do well.

DJ can play 3B but he doesnt do it that often and not very well.

Semien's defensive stat at SS:

2020: 4th best DEF Rating and 5th best UZR/150 in the league
2012 to 2020: 43rd best DEF Rating and 5th best UZR/150 in the league

Semien was a horrible defender at SS years ago but he has come a long way.

I think he would consider a move if it made the team better. If not you can split Biggio and Semien at 2B and 3B or even take a run at Turner too.

I like 2 of Semien, Turner and Brantley as better investments than one of LeMahieu, Springer or Realmuto at their rumored prices.

 

[Bjindaho]

I'm not sure what his offers will be but Mlbtr suggested he might see a lot of 2B offers.

I am perfectly content with Semien at 2B.

 

[Leafin]

Yes to Semien

 

[Bjindaho]

Cole back on a minor league deal

 

[Man Bear Pig]

He wasn't going to sign here. We would lose Gurriel and Biggio for a year of Lindor

I dont think we'd need to deal Biggio in this hypothetical. Rosario is replacement level, Giminez was barely in the top 100 prospects, Wolf was a recent 2nd round pick and Greene was only the 10th ranked prospect in the Mets system. I know Lindor isnt signed beyond this year but that's not a great return for an MVP candidate and a top of the rotation starter.

 

[SDig14]

 

[habamillions]

Never understood why thet let him go in the 1st place. He would have been around 800k through arbitration. But this is a minors deal compared to guaranteed deal

 

[Bjindaho]

Never understood why thet let him go in the 1st place. He would have been around 800k through arbitration. But this is a minors deal compared to guaranteed deal

40 spot and guaranteed contract

 

[habamillions]

40 spot and guaranteed contract

Imagine to the normal person losing 200k just for a paper transaction lol. To professional teams peanuts

 

[phillipmike]

Surprised he would accept a deal from the Jays with such stiff competition in Yamaguchi. Cole has no shot at this team. Should have joined Sugano and gone to Japan.