Speculation: OEL trade speculation megathread

[gianni]

Odds become more likely if you’re a top pairing D at age 20 to 27.

Still a 7-year, 8.25mill/season gamble.

Brent Seabrook, PK Subban, Duncan Keith are no longer top-pairing guys.

Even the Erik Karlsson & Drew Doughty contracts don't look great, and they were the top-2 dmen in the world not too long ago.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

This is horrendous.

3rd liner
Worst contract in the NHL
Decent but middling defence "prospect"
2nd round pick

for a top pairing defenceman WITH RETENTION.

How could you think this is a reasonable deal for Arizona?

Because it's not entirely about 'reasonable'.

I'm not suggesting that in the marketplace of 30 other teams that this would be the best offer. I'm not delusional.

But IF the Coyotes' owner is desperate to shed dollars (which appears to have some merit), they have a 57 million dollar albatross hanging around their neck.

They have next to zero futures, and OEL on his own isn't going to get them anywhere.

The appeal of Eriksson is definitely that his cap outweighs his money. It's 57 million outgoing and only 5 million incoming. To the Leafs that wouldn't matter, to Arizona it may.

What people seem to fail to understand is that this isn't the Canucks GM calling up Arizona and saying "we have to have OEL, what are your demands?"

This appears to be a bit of an ugly divorce (though that may be strong language) due in part to Tocchet's relationship with/inability to properly utilize OEL.

OEL has the leverage to say 'f*** you, I'm staying'. He's offering two teams. Boston may or may not be interested (based in part on Krug). The Canucks are interested, but only (I imagine) on their own conditions.

I'm not saying OEL is going to be a Canuck next week, I'm saying that IF he is, this is probably how it will go.

For a team (Canucks) in cap troubles and with a weak RD, we wouldn't pitch an 8.25 million dollar deal towards an LD UFA right now anyway. He's a luxury item to us in a sense.

Essentially, we may be very lucky and get a decent asset for far less than he's 'worth'. If we don't get him for far less than he's worth, I doubt we're interested.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

That’s not going to do it. I expect that Vancouvers offer is already higher than that or they wouldn’t even be still talking. Also there won’t be any retention given the contract length. That’s a non starter.
The Kesler deal was a first, a decent Center in Bonino and a terrible D in Sbisa that for some reason Benning wanted. If we are adding one of the worst cap dumps in Eriksson that increases the return to Arizona.

We simply cannot take on an 8.25 million question mark for 7 years without some kind of retention AND them taking back a bad contract.
This only happens if Arizona is desperate to move him and I think that that may be the case. If it's not, we won't acquire him.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

So trying to understand this... OEL's cap hit is too high, so the Coyotes should retain until he's at 7M which is closer to market value in your opinion. They should also pretend not to notice that you're off loading a contract that is unmoveable and not paying for either the cap dump nor for a top pairing dman at 7M.

About it?

See my other responses.

If OEL didn't have a NTC, then this deal wouldn't move the needle. I'm not stupid. But IF Arizona is desperate to move him and Boston can't or won't take him, then we may have them over a barrel.

I know it's tough to swallow for Arizona fans (genuinely), but it really doesn't make sense for us to sink 8.25 million into a wildcard on LD (when RD is our profound weakness and we are in cap trouble already).

If Arizona wants to play hardball, they keep OEL and pay him 57 mil. I don't know if they can afford it.

I"m not stating that this trade is definitely going to happen. I'm saying IF it happens with Vancouver, it looks something like this. Or they can keep him.

I also don't think this would have been a consideration pre-covid.

 

[canuckster19]

Yeah, there’s an unfortunate reality and set of circumstances here that some find hard to grasp. It’s sucks if you’re an Arizona fan but that’s the way it is.

 

[Mr Positive]

I don't understand how Boston is really in this.

Why give valuable assets for OEL when you could just sign Krug, probably for less money?

The only ways it makes sense to me is if Arizona eats so much in this trade that it makes it not worth it for them

 

[Bettman Returnz]

 

[Emerz]

I don't understand how Boston is really in this.

Why give valuable assets for OEL when you could just sign Krug, probably for less money?

The only ways it makes sense to me is if Arizona eats so much in this trade that it makes it not worth it for them

I've seen this thought a couple of time so I figured I'd give my opinion on the situation:

Krug and OEL aren't really comparable players, Krug is looking for in excess of 7.5M and he can never be put on your teams top pair or he'll get caved in. He's great at PP production and zipping the puck around, but he doesn't provide any real ES scoring boost, it's nearly all tied to the powerplay or 3 on 3. OEL has been on the top pair in Arizona for 10 years now, he could slot in next to McAvoy seamlessly. I wouldn't want Krug at a penny over 7M, even the 6.5M/6 offer would have been tough to stomach if he accepted it from my view, and I have mans jersey in my closet.

Much of OEL's decline has been attitributed to the death of his mother, receiving the C in Arizona, Tochhett's coaching decisions and some of his own natural decline. I personally believe he'd be reinvigorated on a team that he doesn't have to be a leader, just go out and play sound hockey every night. His left pass option will be a 100+ point winger in Marchand, and his right pass option will be t he reigning co-rocket winner, it'd be tough for a player of his skill to not see a sharp increase in stats given the minutes he will be playing in Boston.

 

[neelynugs]

I've seen this thought a couple of time so I figured I'd give my opinion on the situation:

Krug and OEL aren't really comparable players, Krug is looking for in excess of 7.5M and he can never be put on your teams top pair or he'll get caved in. He's great at PP production and zipping the puck around, but he doesn't provide any real ES scoring boost, it's nearly all tied to the powerplay or 3 on 3. OEL has been on the top pair in Arizona for 10 years now, he could slot in next to McAvoy seamlessly. I wouldn't want Krug at a penny over 7M, even the 6.5M/6 offer would have been tough to stomach if he accepted it from my view, and I have mans jersey in my closet.

Much of OEL's decline has been attitributed to the death of his mother, receiving the C in Arizona, Tochhett's coaching decisions and some of his own natural decline. I personally believe he'd be reinvigorated on a team that he doesn't have to be a leader, just go out and play sound hockey every night. His left pass option will be a 100+ point winger in Marchand, and his right pass option will be t he reigning co-rocket winner, it'd be tough for a player of his skill to not see a sharp increase in stats given the minutes he will be playing in Boston.

well said. what's your target trade from boston's perspective? no 1st this year, but could trade
debrusk for one. vaakanainen seems like an obvious one, although if they land OEL, they'd
have 4 D to protect vs seattle expansion. instead of cap retention, moore goes the other way too. beecher or frederic are probably targets for arizona, and studnicka is going nowhere.

 

[Healthy DiPietro]

I don't get why he's so specific about Boston and Vancouver. There's other big city markets with good teams.

 

[RABBIT]

I don't get why he's so specific about Boston and Vancouver. There's other big city markets with good teams.

I don’t think he wants to be traded at all, think he wants changes on the Yotes side starting with Tocchet being replaced. So if you don’t want to be traded but you’re approached about doing so, only choose a few destinations to limit your current organization, but pick places you actually like at the same time in case it actually does happen.

 

[BB88]

I don't get why he's so specific about Boston and Vancouver. There's other big city markets with good teams.

Bostons been after him for years.

Maybe he respects that

 

[rt]

well said. what's your target trade from boston's perspective? no 1st this year, but could trade
debrusk for one. vaakanainen seems like an obvious one, although if they land OEL, they'd
have 4 D to protect vs seattle expansion. instead of cap retention, moore goes the other way too. beecher or frederic are probably targets for arizona, and studnicka is going nowhere.

Moore(dump), Lauzon, Frederic, Beecher and a conditional 2021 pick (1st/2nd) based on playoff results?

 

[Bettman Returnz]

I don’t think he wants to be traded at all, think he wants changes on the Yotes side starting with Tocchet being replaced. So if you don’t want to be traded but you’re approached about doing so, only choose a few destinations to limit your current organization, but pick places you actually like at the same time in case it actually does happen.

 

[Mick Riddleton]

Better get it done soon as the draft it tomorrow. If a pick is in play, scouts need to be making a plan. This is different this year, no chance to talk to the kids the day before in person and no combine.

Still think somewhere around Vaak, Bjork, Moore and a pick gets it done for the Bruins. No big cap coming back and two useful players for this year. Or replace Moore with Ritchie and Bjork with another prospect to lower the cap and salary. Lot of options from Boston. Looks like Krug is going or he is taking a discount to stay.

 

[WhalerTurnedBruin55]

Bostons been after him for years.

Maybe he respects that

Maybe he has a connection to someone in the organization or the city.

Maybe something else unrelated to hockey makes him choose the location.

Maybe he REALLY likes "Chowdah".

It's all speculation unless someone knows something they likely aren't allowed to share.

 

[Bettman Returnz]

Going to be interesting... especially if Canucks or bruins claim to pull out of the running. This screams Kesler situation all over again. Tough for the yotes as they don’t have a ton of leverage here. From a Canucks pov I’d have to think there’s a drop dead date for this potential deal as we have some many other things still on our plate (ufa/rfa resigns, moving money out, etc). Where do bruins sit with this (timeline wise)?

 

[Mick Riddleton]

Going to be interesting... especially if Canucks or bruins claim to pull out of the running. This screams Kesler situation all over again. Tough for the yotes as they don’t have a ton of leverage here. From a Canucks pov I’d have to think there’s a drop dead date for this potential deal as we have some many other things still on our plate (ufa/rfa resigns, moving money out, etc). Where do bruins sit with this (timeline wise)?

I think it depends more on Arizona, they would probably want a pick for this draft. It will not be a 1st as both teams do not have that. If the second is good enough with a strong package then Wednesday morning is the 2nd round. Bruins would like to get a pick if Rask or DeBrusk are moved soon. That may not happen quickly and may wait till free agency on the 9th. I see Rask going maybe not Jake. Moore and a few others may be gone for later picks.

 

[Fatass]

Going to be interesting... especially if Canucks or bruins claim to pull out of the running. This screams Kesler situation all over again. Tough for the yotes as they don’t have a ton of leverage here. From a Canucks pov I’d have to think there’s a drop dead date for this potential deal as we have some many other things still on our plate (ufa/rfa resigns, moving money out, etc). Where do bruins sit with this (timeline wise)?

I’d say both the Bruins and Canucks pull their offers off the table Tuesday before the draft. Coyotes are under the gun, and should just keep OEL, because (if they go through with a trade) this is going to be a very unfair deal. But even though the trade, on a hockey level, appears in incredibly unfair the Coyotes owner seems to value saving dollars more than doing what’s fair.

 

[RABBIT]

The way I worded my initial response may have been confusing, but yes the relationship between OEL and RT has essentially been sour from the start. OEL has not played two is the best ability under RT, and there was noted rifts between the two about captaincy and usage.

 

[_Del_]

I think it depends more on Arizona, they would probably want a pick for this draft.

I doubt that's critical. Teams are attached to their picks and have their lists set. The picks represent actual names at this point for teams. I think it's easier to maximize value by taking picks in 2021. Certainly, a 2020 pick is preferable (to everyone), but that's why I think it's easier to squeeze more value by taking a 2021 pick. I'd rather have a 2021 pick and a nicer prospect or an extra one, than a 2020 pick. And I think Boston and Vancouver both would be just as happy kicking the can down the road and keeping a 2020 pick if they acquired one.

 

[_Del_]

This screams Kesler situation all over again.

The Coyotes are looking for futures and flexibility for a rare asset while they don't anticipate being relevant. All accounts are that OEL is reluctant to leave. That's basically the opposite of the Kesler situation. If you want to trade a guy for futures and flexibility and you don't have offers that do that, why would you force yourself into a trade? You just keep the minute munching dman and try again later.

 

[Bitz and Bites]

I really feel that the Canucks shouldn't be in the game of having to convince Arizona of making a deal for OEL.

Unless they are really willing to eat shorter term salary and retain on the OEL contract, they should be moving on and focusing on other things.

Need to note that I think OEL is a #2 that could fit behind Quinn Hughes for the next 3-4 seasons. It's just entirely about a cap/asset management issue for Vancouver. Almost like taking a complete detour on a pre-destined road trip.

Reports from Friedman suggesting that Armstrong wants a ROR like return for OEL should be enough to have Benning say thanks but no thanks and allow Boston to focus on that deal. If they want to move on from Krug and replace him with the OEL contract, by all means allow them to do it. Again, no shade against OEL, but being pulled into this tug of war because OEL put Vancouver as one of two teams in his NMC shouldn't be enough of a reason to potentially take on that dangerous of a contract.

If the Coyotes want to take long-term committed money and turn it into short-term committed money while having the issue of a NMC held above their heads, you can't expect that they will get a full return on player value as they might expect.

Good analysis.It sounds like Arz approached OEL about a trade as a combination of a new owner and GM wanting to shed a major amount of committed salary for a player who doesn’t fit into their new plan to rebuild while using the asset to acquire some pieces to start the rebuild.
Unfortunately for them OEL has a NMC clause and has only waived it for two teams and the Canucks already have a top pairing LHD who’s on his ELC and who will be due a huge raise in a years time.
Also,the Canucks already have a major cap crunch and likely can’t clear out salary in this new flat cap/low revenue era to make room for a player they don’t really need with what would be the biggest and longest contract on the team.
The only way it’s going to work for Van is for Arizona to take back short term salary on players like Eriksson,if he’ll waive,or some combination of Sutter/Roussel/Baertchi/Beagle.
Otherwise,trading for OEL would be like JB going out and signing him as FA when LHD is the least of our problems.

And no,we’re not paying ARZ a first to take Eriksson when they’re the one trying to shed the contract that’s almost 3M higher and 5 years longer for a player who could already be declining.
Frankly,from a cap management point,we’d be better off just burying Loui in the AHL for the next two years while letting Joulevi or Rathbone grow into the second pairing LHD role rather than take on a massive contract that will likely be immovable in the not so distant future.

 

[Bettman Returnz]

The Coyotes are looking for futures and flexibility for a rare asset while they don't anticipate being relevant. All accounts are that OEL is reluctant to leave. That's basically the opposite of the Kesler situation. If you want to trade a guy for futures and flexibility and you don't have offers that do that, why would you force yourself into a trade? You just keep the minute munching dman and try again later.

If I were the yotes I wouldn’t take scraps. And if they do it shows you their desperation level to get rid of this contract.

 

[Peter Griffin]

To me it seems like Vancouver has made their offer, it’s not a very strong one, and Arizona is going to Boston and saying “Really, you can’t top this?”. I just don’t get the feeling Boston is as interested in making this deal as Vancouver is. Boston has a lot more options available to them if they simply just wait until Friday when UFA opens. They don’t have the incentive of being able to dump a bad contract or two
on Arizona like Vancouver does and I think that makes all the difference considering Arizona is apparently dead set against any retention.