Observations XXVIII

[Armourboy]

Depending on financials, I could see the ownership group write this year off as a re-tool. With how much money actually playing is likely to waste, why make the situation even worse by signing some big contracts?

Yep been saying this for a while now, what we do has less to do with what Poile wants to do and more what the owners want to do. We gotta remember not only will they be losing money on the Preds, but they also have had nothing coming in on the arena at all since at least March, and that's not going to be rectified soon.

We may view it as a wasted season, they may view it as not making the issue worse.

Also keep in mind too when you are comparing other sports, most of those have been played outside and the major one that isn't in basketball has essentially had no fans and can do so because of their tv deal.

 

[Scoresberg]

Didn't Poile say when the Free Agency began that he had no financial restrictions? As in, I don't see the Preds being in any different position financially compared to most of the teams in the league. Even if they went and got a guy like Killorn, they'd still have about $6 mil to spare, which is more than most of the teams still.

 

[adsfan]

As somebody sitting in Milwaukee, I am concerned about the special teams play. It shows up more in the playoffs than the regular season.

I don't worry about Saros. I think that the 2 "experts" may be wrong about him.

Saros has played 119 NHL games with a 55-36-16 record and a 0.918 save%, with 2.56 GAA.

Saros outplayed Rinne (0.895 save%, 3.17 GAA, 36 games) last season even with (0.914 save%, 2.70 GAA, 40 games)

Rinne gave up nearly 0.5 goal more per game last season versus Saros.

Rinne's career stats are 659 games with a 359-201-74 record and a 0.917 save% and a 2.42 GAA.

If I was Hynes, Saros gets 60% of the starts this season.

I can live with giving up 1 more goal every 7 games based on Saros' career stats versus Rinne's.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Didn't Poile say when the Free Agency began that he had no financial restrictions? As in, I don't see the Preds being in any different position financially compared to most of the teams in the league. Even if they went and got a guy like Killorn, they'd still have about $6 mil to spare, which is more than most of the teams still.

Well I don't think we would expect the GM to broadcast financial difficulties even if they did exist.

Ultimately the only way we are going to know for sure is if/when the season starts whether they do spend the money or not. But even then, I think it's taken for granted that the vast majority of NHL teams will lose money this year if they play games. How individual teams choose to manage those losses may vary from team to team. Some might take the full loss. Others might say, hey, if we can reduce that by $10M by saving on payroll, let's do that and not suffer the full loss. The Preds could still take the latter approach, even while being in no particularly dire straits relative to the rest of the league.

 

[Byrddog]

Well I don't think we would expect the GM to broadcast financial difficulties even if they did exist.

Ultimately the only way we are going to know for sure is if/when the season starts whether they do spend the money or not. But even then, I think it's taken for granted that the vast majority of NHL teams will lose money this year if they play games. How individual teams choose to manage those losses may vary from team to team. Some might take the full loss. Others might say, hey, if we can reduce that by $10M by saving on payroll, let's do that and not suffer the full loss. The Preds could still take the latter approach, even while being in no particularly dire straits relative to the rest of the league.

That is just absurd. This team lost 11 million dollars last year. The projections are that if the season is canceled every team in the league would lose 15 mil. If There was to be a full season the projections are that each team loses 60 mil on average. Dialing back the number of games any season would have would reduce that 60 mil number. The false narrative that owners do not care to lose money is asinine. This ownership group like all the others expect to at least break even or make a few bucks. Those who think otherwise are untruthful and have never had very much money of there own.

Now we have no idea what is going to happen but the league is in trouble. Bettman knows that not playing a season will have dire long term effects, currently there are a number of teams considering bankruptcy that number now is 3 to 5 Forbes predicted that is there is no season that number could go as high as 12. Is it any wonder that 18 of the BOG are pushing to cancel the entire season. Not playing this year would cost teams 15 vs up to 60 mil if they do play. A report yesterday on the news networks indicated even with a vaccine rollout it will be mid summer before 100 million people would be vaccinated they point out as well that the minimum number acceptable would be 160 million in the US before large group restrictions could start to reduce. The talking heads predicted that number would not likely be met until Dec of 2021. That is even going to impact the Oct start of the 21-22 season. I am not sure how much of a league will be left by then, one thing is for sure the labor contract is toast as well as the player contracts if this does occur.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

That is just absurd. This team lost 11 million dollars last year. The projections are that if the season is canceled every team in the league would lose 15 mil. If There was to be a full season the projections are that each team loses 60 mil on average. Dialing back the number of games any season would have would reduce that 60 mil number. The false narrative that owners do not care to lose money is asinine. This ownership group like all the others expect to at least break even or make a few bucks. Those who think otherwise are untruthful and have never had very much money of there own.

Now we have no idea what is going to happen but the league is in trouble. Bettman knows that not playing a season will have dire long term effects, currently there are a number of teams considering bankruptcy that number now is 3 to 5 Forbes predicted that is there is no season that number could go as high as 12. Is it any wonder that 18 of the BOG are pushing to cancel the entire season. Not playing this year would cost teams 15 vs up to 60 mil if they do play. A report yesterday on the news networks indicated even with a vaccine rollout it will be mid summer before 100 million people would be vaccinated they point out as well that the minimum number acceptable would be 160 million in the US before large group restrictions could start to reduce. The talking heads predicted that number would not likely be met until Dec of 2021. That is even going to impact the Oct start of the 21-22 season. I am not sure how much of a league will be left by then, one thing is for sure the labor contract is toast as well as the player contracts if this does occur.

You just said the same things I did, but called it absurd or asinine? Ooookay.

 

[OldFan]

They act like this 2 week delay is not a problem. When I worked if a project missed the due date, it was a problem. This is a serious miss. Now they have to try and cram the season into 2 less weeks or run 2 weeks longer. If I thought it was Covid I would understand. But this appears to be totally financial with both sides trying to get the other to take a bigger hit. They(specifically the NHL and the NHLPA) missed their own date and continue to bicker.

 

[herzausstein]

As somebody sitting in Milwaukee, I am concerned about the special teams play. It shows up more in the playoffs than the regular season.

I don't worry about Saros. I think that the 2 "experts" may be wrong about him.

Saros has played 119 NHL games with a 55-36-16 record and a 0.918 save%, with 2.56 GAA.

Saros outplayed Rinne (0.895 save%, 3.17 GAA, 36 games) last season even with (0.914 save%, 2.70 GAA, 40 games)

Rinne gave up nearly 0.5 goal more per game last season versus Saros.

Rinne's career stats are 659 games with a 359-201-74 record and a 0.917 save% and a 2.42 GAA.

If I was Hynes, Saros gets 60% of the starts this season.

I can live with giving up 1 more goal every 7 games based on Saros' career stats versus Rinne's.

Rinne was real rough last season. That said, it should be a nobrainer that Saros gets 55-60 starts no matter how it goes. Rinne is gonna retire shortly. Saros either becomes starter or we find someone in free agency next season that can

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Rinne was real rough last season. That said, it should be a nobrainer that Saros gets 55-60 starts no matter how it goes. Rinne is gonna retire shortly. Saros either becomes starter or we find someone in free agency next season that can

I'm pretty confident that Saros can at least bridge us over until we find out about Ingram/Askarov, anyway. Even if it's more than 1 season. Saros can be an "adequate" starter for us for that duration, even if it's 2 or 3 years. There's a lot of room for improvement in terms of ways the team could take some pressure off him if it turns out he doesn't become a really ideal #1 like Rinne was.

EDIT: I should have added that it's a VERY deep goalie field in free agency in 2021, though. Teams designed it that way due to the imminent expansion draft. So if there is a scenario where Rinne is clearly toast, Saros doesn't even look "adequate", and neither prospect is ready to step up... I think we can have high confidence about finding somebody on a shorter term deal to share the crease with Saros.

 

[GoldOnGold]

I'm pretty confident that Saros can at least bridge us over until we find out about Ingram/Askarov, anyway. Even if it's more than 1 season. Saros can be an "adequate" starter for us for that duration, even if it's 2 or 3 years. There's a lot of room for improvement in terms of ways the team could take some pressure off him if it turns out he doesn't become a really ideal #1 like Rinne was.

EDIT: I should have added that it's a VERY deep goalie field in free agency in 2021, though. Teams designed it that way due to the imminent expansion draft. So if there is a scenario where Rinne is clearly toast, Saros doesn't even look "adequate", and neither prospect is ready to step up... I think we can have high confidence about finding somebody on a shorter term deal to share the crease with Saros.

If Saros ever stops starting slow literally every season he'd be fine. But whenever there's a big gap and he doesn't play, he doesn't do so hot (see qualifiers).

 

[herzausstein]

I'm pretty confident that Saros can at least bridge us over until we find out about Ingram/Askarov, anyway. Even if it's more than 1 season. Saros can be an "adequate" starter for us for that duration, even if it's 2 or 3 years. There's a lot of room for improvement in terms of ways the team could take some pressure off him if it turns out he doesn't become a really ideal #1 like Rinne was.

EDIT: I should have added that it's a VERY deep goalie field in free agency in 2021, though. Teams designed it that way due to the imminent expansion draft. So if there is a scenario where Rinne is clearly toast, Saros doesn't even look "adequate", and neither prospect is ready to step up... I think we can have high confidence about finding somebody on a shorter term deal to share the crease with Saros.

yep. If rinne is toast, he retires and we grab a one or two season stopgap in free agency if saros isn’t up to task. If saros is up to task, then I guess ingram gets to try his hand at backup and we probably grab a lesser backup in free agency just in case like smith or mcbackup

 

[GoldOnGold]

That is just absurd. This team lost 11 million dollars last year. The projections are that if the season is canceled every team in the league would lose 15 mil. If There was to be a full season the projections are that each team loses 60 mil on average. Dialing back the number of games any season would have would reduce that 60 mil number. The false narrative that owners do not care to lose money is asinine. This ownership group like all the others expect to at least break even or make a few bucks. Those who think otherwise are untruthful and have never had very much money of there own.

Now we have no idea what is going to happen but the league is in trouble. Bettman knows that not playing a season will have dire long term effects, currently there are a number of teams considering bankruptcy that number now is 3 to 5 Forbes predicted that is there is no season that number could go as high as 12. Is it any wonder that 18 of the BOG are pushing to cancel the entire season. Not playing this year would cost teams 15 vs up to 60 mil if they do play. A report yesterday on the news networks indicated even with a vaccine rollout it will be mid summer before 100 million people would be vaccinated they point out as well that the minimum number acceptable would be 160 million in the US before large group restrictions could start to reduce. The talking heads predicted that number would not likely be met until Dec of 2021. That is even going to impact the Oct start of the 21-22 season. I am not sure how much of a league will be left by then, one thing is for sure the labor contract is toast as well as the player contracts if this does occur.

I've always wondered about those Forbes estimates for team income, because if they're true the Preds have made money like twice in a decade. Seems like that would be pretty unsustainable.

 

[Armourboy]

I've always wondered about those Forbes estimates for team income, because if they're true the Preds have made money like twice in a decade. Seems like that would be pretty unsustainable.

You can make numbers say whatever you want them too. It's one of the busiest arenas in the country.

 

[OldFan]

I've always wondered about those Forbes estimates for team income, because if they're true the Preds have made money like twice in a decade. Seems like that would be pretty unsustainable.

Situation is all these interlocking companies. Who actually owns what down at Bridgestone and how do they book the income and expenses? The “Predators” are more than one company operating a hockey team, concerts and other events, concessions at all, interest in community hockey facilities, etc. How all that is “owned” by whom and how income and expense are “booked” to which company is very creatively accounted. I suspect the “owners” are making some money but who knows. Not Forbes I suspect.

 

[adsfan]

Rinne was real rough last season. That said, it should be a nobrainer that Saros gets 55-60 starts no matter how it goes. Rinne is gonna retire shortly. Saros either becomes starter or we find someone in free agency next season that can

I agree with 99% of what you said. I went with a percentage because the # of games keeping changing (now 56?).

Congrats on hitting 1000 posts on here!

 

[herzausstein]

I agree with 99% of what you said. I went with a percentage because the # of games keeping changing (now 56?).

Congrats on hitting 1000 posts on here!

Lol you’re right. I keep approaching this like it’s a typical season. Either way saros needs the starters share

 

[LCPreds]

You can make numbers say whatever you want them too. It's one of the busiest arenas in the country.

I may not be looking at the same information on Forbes but it seems as if they are attempting to isolate to the sport. This would mean it's likely not taking the non-hockey events into account.

 

[triggrman]

Team income and arena income are not the same thing

 

[Armourboy]

Team income and arena income are not the same thing

No but it goes to the same owners.

 

[triggrman]

No but it goes to the same owners.

Indeed

 

[Scoresberg]

Looks like they're probably going to get the season started after all. NHL and NHLPA were able to set aside the money issue differences and just focus on the Return to Play program. That mid-January start is probably the latest they'll have to get going, taking into account the 15th of July deadline to wrap up the season and all the stoppages during the season related to COVID.

 

[GoldOnGold]

Looks like they're probably going to get the season started after all. NHL and NHLPA were able to set aside the money issue differences and just focus on the Return to Play program. That mid-January start is probably the latest they'll have to get going, taking into account the 15th of July deadline to wrap up the season and all the stoppages during the season related to COVID.

Crazy to think we will end up having watched a total of 4 Preds games across 10 months.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Crazy to think we will end up having watched a total of 4 Preds games across 10 months.

And that it's basically happened three times in Preds history now...

From April of 04 - October of 06 was roughly 18 months with no games.
From April of 12 - January of 13 was roughly 9 months with no games.
From March 20 - January of 21 will be roughly 10 months with only 4 games.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Looks like they're probably going to get the season started after all. NHL and NHLPA were able to set aside the money issue differences and just focus on the Return to Play program. That mid-January start is probably the latest they'll have to get going, taking into account the 15th of July deadline to wrap up the season and all the stoppages during the season related to COVID.

I still can't see them starting until February, given the expected Xmas/New's Year Covid spikes, but it can never hurt to set an early date and drive towards it, even if you know it probably has to slide a bit out from that. But it shouldn't be too long into February when things start to get back under some control, with vaccines and governance incoming.

Obviously pro athletes will get vaccinated before just about anybody else, though. And a lot of them have already had Covid by now too. So the players will be ready to play. It's just a question really of how they can manage the fans in the stands. Maybe there even is a chance they could start games on their proposed date, with no/few fans, and just gradually open it up to fans later on... I mean, start the immunization of players "now", get their second jab in a few weeks, and boom, that aligns with a January start. Just it will take a little longer to get the arenas filled with fans, right?

 

[PredsV82]

What are they telling you season ticket holders? Will they be having fans in the stands at all?