Observations XXVIII

[PredsV82]

No poll needed. Stick with opinions and observations, leave the personal attacks out, and this will be the useful, helpful, and sometimes cathartic thread its always been.

I was ready to give up on this season, but this thread and its hundreds of predecessors dating back to the old NP boards are where I learned how to appreciate the sport of hockey, and thus no matter how frustrating a season the team is having, this thread should always be the place to go to learn more about the game we all love.

Click to read more...

 

[Armourboy]

5k to mug Perry, worth it.

 

[101st_fan]

My take on it was overall ice time. If that's the case, you have to include PK time.

ES TOI leading forwards in 2020 to date ... Granlund, Forsberg, Duchene, Arvy, Joey. Only Smith, Granlund and Arvy have 5 or more ES goals this calendar year. Joey, Duchene and Forsberg are getting assists ... yes, Forsberg the setup man.

PP TOI leading forwards in 2020 ... Granlund, Forsberg, Turris, Smith, Arvy. Granlund, Smith, and Fosberg are our leading PP goal scorers. Turris and Forsberg tied for PP points lead among forwards in 2020.

 

[FossilFndr]

No poll needed. ..............

The poll was to address what one poster said best

"Observations was a place you could go to see analysis of games and talk in depth about hockey. You could also see the discussion from game to game to see the ebbs and flows of the team as far as systems and player development are concerned. This was unique to the Preds board and was a really good feature for the new fans to learn and the experienced fans to talk x's and o's.

Right now "Observations" is a mix of General Discussion, Negativity, and Analysis. Because of this the analytical flow from game to game is drown out by a bunch of other crap and the uniqueness that used to be the "Obeservations" thread is now gone. "

I hope it drifts back to what this member referenced.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

 

[Predsanddead24]

Pretty interesting to see us win two huge games based on special teams play and goaltending given how much of this season has gone. I think they mentioned this during the game Saturday, but we've gone 19/20 on the PK in the last 7 games. Under Hynes overall we've seen a 4.8% increase in our PK% from 74.0% to 78.8%. Still not outstanding overall but the upwards trend and recent performance is very encouraging. PP has seen a very slight increase under Hynes of 0.9%, and has gone 4/11 in the last 3 games as well. If we even could just keep our special teams at mediocre and not major flaw I'll be pretty happy down the stretch.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Pretty interesting to see us win two huge games based on special teams play and goaltending given how much of this season has gone. I think they mentioned this during the game Saturday, but we've gone 19/20 on the PK in the last 7 games. Under Hynes overall we've seen a 4.8% increase in our PK% from 74.0% to 78.8%. Still not outstanding overall but the upwards trend and recent performance is very encouraging. PP has seen a very slight increase under Hynes of 0.9%, and has gone 4/11 in the last 3 games as well. If we even could just keep our special teams at mediocre and not major flaw I'll be pretty happy down the stretch.

In a short term perspective, that's wonderful!

 

[drwpreds]

It is a good thing our special teams play has improved, because we still cannot score goals- our offense has been horrible, and it is getting worse, not better:

We have gone 3 straight games without an even strength goal- have not had one since the Edmonton game on 3/2.
Have scored 4 total goals in last 3 games
Have scored 3 total goals in last 3 road games.
Averaging 2.4 goals per game since Hynes took over
We have scored 2 or fewer goals in 17 of the 27 games we have played under Hynes (63% of the time)

I get that we are playing a much different system and I guess because of our roster it is going to be a struggle.

But man, those are some atrocious numbers- has to improve if we are to have any chance of doing anything the rest of the year. You don’t have much of a chance scoring 2 or fewer goals in 63% of your games.

 

[101st_fan]

It is a good thing our special teams play has improved, because we still cannot score goals- our offense has been horrible, and it is getting worse, not better:

We have gone 3 straight games without an even strength goal- have not had one since the Edmonton game on 3/2.
Have scored 4 total goals in last 3 games
Have scored 3 total goals in last 3 road games.
Averaging 2.4 goals per game since Hynes took over
We have scored 2 or fewer goals in 17 of the 27 games we have played under Hynes (63% of the time)

I get that we are playing a much different system and I guess because of our roster it is going to be a struggle.

But man, those are some atrocious numbers- has to improve if we are to have any chance of doing anything the rest of the year. You don’t have much of a chance scoring 2 or fewer goals in 63% of your games.

Goals are down, points percentage is up. It's not like the team was getting the wins it needed when averaging 3.44 goals per game through Lavy's firing.

First ever home and home shutouts in franchise history is a nice little tidbit even without an ES goal ... depending on special teams and having them come through for a change.

Dallas has 30 fewer goals than the Preds yet sit six points ahead of us with the #3 spot in the division. Goal scoring isn't the end all, be all. It is merely one aspect.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Goals are down, points percentage is up. It's not like the team was getting the wins it needed when averaging 3.44 goals per game through Lavy's firing.

First ever home and home shutouts in franchise history is a nice little tidbit even without an ES goal ... depending on special teams and having them come through for a change.

Dallas has 30 fewer goals than the Preds yet sit six points ahead of us with the #3 spot in the division. Goal scoring isn't the end all, be all. It is merely one aspect.

Not to mention Dallas is also the #2 defensive team in the league, I'm not going to expect us to get much 5v5 against them. Fantastic that we not only matched their style of play but came out on top in both instances.

 

[drwpreds]

Goals are down, points percentage is up. It's not like the team was getting the wins it needed when averaging 3.44 goals per game through Lavy's firing.

First ever home and home shutouts in franchise history is a nice little tidbit even without an ES goal ... depending on special teams and having them come through for a change.

Dallas has 30 fewer goals than the Preds yet sit six points ahead of us with the #3 spot in the division. Goal scoring isn't the end all, be all. It is merely one aspect.

Who said it was the "end all, be all"? All I am saying is our offense needs to be better- you really disagree with that?? I don't see how anyone could argue that. Getting 2 goals a game most nights is not going to cut it. We are 6-11 in those 17 games.

Dallas has had maybe the best defense/goaltending combo in the whole league- they are a pretty extreme outlier.

And while it is correct to say that we weren't getting great results when we averaged 3.44 goals per game, but in my opinion the main reason that was the case was we had maybe the worst goaltending in the entire league. Had we gotten even league average goaltending we would easily be in the playoffs and there probably would not have been a coaching change.

And even with the new defensive system we are playing AND getting elite goaltending from Saros, we are 15-12 in past 27. Slightly better than before, but not much..

 

[Softball99]

Playoff style hockey is what this team is playing and will have to keep this style to get in. The bitch the last 2playoffs was we couldn't win because of special teams. Playoffs...D 1st and take advantage of the other teams mistakes without making any dangerous ones yourself is the winning formula.

 

[Armourboy]

Playoff style hockey is what this team is playing and will have to keep this style to get in. The bitch the last 2playoffs was we couldn't win because of special teams. Playoffs...D 1st and take advantage of the other teams mistakes without making any dangerous ones yourself is the winning formula.

Like I said in the GDT, we hit 3 posts to start that game not to mention other chances. The problem isn't the style of play, it's the execution offensively.

 

[101st_fan]

Who said it was the "end all, be all"? All I am saying is our offense needs to be better- you really disagree with that?? I don't see how anyone could argue that. Getting 2 goals a game most nights is not going to cut it. We are 6-11 in those 17 games.

Dallas has had maybe the best defense/goaltending combo in the whole league- they are a pretty extreme outlier.

And while it is correct to say that we weren't getting great results when we averaged 3.44 goals per game, but in my opinion the main reason that was the case was we had maybe the worst goaltending in the entire league. Had we gotten even league average goaltending we would easily be in the playoffs and there probably would not have been a coaching change.

And even with the new defensive system we are playing AND getting elite goaltending from Saros, we are 15-12 in past 27. Slightly better than before, but not much..

Is the team in a better or worse place in the standings with the 2.4 goals per game under Hynes than it was with the 3.44 goals per game under Lavy this season? Is it winning more or fewer games under Hynes compared to Lavy? 15 wins out of 27 games under Hynes (55.55%) compared to 19 wins out of 41 under Lavy (46.34%). The team took 57.4% of possible points since the coaching change (59.6% since Hynes held his first practice) compared to 54.9% under Lavy ... a 97.7 point pace since that first practice compared to 90.04 pt pace. I'll take a drop in goal scoring for the increase in win and points percentages.


As I said, goal scoring is just one aspect. Dallas has the 3rd worst goals for in the league, Columbus 7th worst ... both with at least 30 fewer goals than the Preds ... both with better records. Toronto has the 3rd highest goals for in the league, Rangers 7th most ... 25 and 17 more goals than the Preds respectively ... with similar records to the Preds. Last weekend was beat the Stars back to back ... Dallas allowing the fewest goals in the league. A couple of weekends ago it was beat the Blues back to back ... StL with the 7th lowest goals allowed total. Wins count.

 

[Scoresberg]

Who said it was the "end all, be all"? All I am saying is our offense needs to be better- you really disagree with that?? I don't see how anyone could argue that. Getting 2 goals a game most nights is not going to cut it. We are 6-11 in those 17 games.

Dallas has had maybe the best defense/goaltending combo in the whole league- they are a pretty extreme outlier.

And while it is correct to say that we weren't getting great results when we averaged 3.44 goals per game, but in my opinion the main reason that was the case was we had maybe the worst goaltending in the entire league. Had we gotten even league average goaltending we would easily be in the playoffs and there probably would not have been a coaching change.

And even with the new defensive system we are playing AND getting elite goaltending from Saros, we are 15-12 in past 27. Slightly better than before, but not much..

Good post and there was a good article from Vignan in the Athletic about this same subject. Hynes has really suppressed the little offensive talent we had before and now they've all essentially regressed into 30-50 point players.

There was a guy in the comment section who wrote that Joey is on 27p pace under Hynes, Duchene 39p, Forsberg 48p.

I did not understand that the offense had been stifled by Hynes that much. In the last 25 games, only Detroit has scored less than us.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

The only reason we are winning games is the improved goaltending from Saros. If Saros was playing like he did early this year, we would be screwed with our current offensive production.

 

[Softball99]

Correlation...crap defensive structure and special teams equals crappy goaltending... defensive structure and special teams improvement equals adequate goaltending. Which coach did what...Rinne's age has nothing to do with coaching

 

[Pred303]

this is a roster built to score goals. Never been more disappointed in an entire group of players like I have been with this entire top 6. Duchene, Johansson, Forsberg, Arvy, Granlund, Turris. guys that should all be at 20-30 goals per and highly dangerous every game. We should be getting 2 goals per game just from these 6.

 

[Kat Predator]

In the Dallas home and home, I felt Duchene came to play. He hit the post twice that I remember. He was skating hard, active, and pushing the offensive play. He drew penalties which decided the first game. It might not be coincidence that his game looks better when he has Forsberg and Granlund as his line mates. If it were me, I'd keep that line together and hope they can find the chemistry they had in October.

We really need to figure out how to get the puck on net with our shots. It would make winning a ton easier.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

In the Dallas home and home, I felt Duchene came to play. He hit the post twice that I remember. He was skating hard, active, and pushing the offensive play. He drew penalties which decided the first game. It might not be coincidence that his game looks better when he has Forsberg and Granlund as his line mates. If it were me, I'd keep that line together and hope they can find the chemistry they had in October.

We really need to figure out how to get the puck on net with our shots. It would make winning a ton easier.

Get the puck on the net, but also get traffic near the net.

I agree, just keep the F-D-G line together the rest of the way and hope they can step up. We're going to need a scoring line if we ever get to the playoffs too, and it would be nice to get some trio on a roll, beyond just the perpetual-mini-roll we've had out of the Bonino line.

 

[drwpreds]

Correlation...crap defensive structure and special teams equals crappy goaltending... defensive structure and special teams improvement equals adequate goaltending. Which coach did what...Rinne's age has nothing to do with coaching

I don't know- I know there is some truth to what you are saying, but if you dig a little deeper into the numbers, even with this "defensive" style we are playing, we are still giving up a good amount and shots, chances and high danger chances. Not arguing at all that our defensive structure is not much, much better- but even so, its not like we are completely shutting teams down.

I just think Saros is playing much, much better now than he did in Oct- Dec and that is the main reason we have a slightly better record the past 2 months.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

We are actually giving up more shots and at a higher quality since Hynes. We are getting better quality at a lower volume. Both of these changes are very minimal. The significant change is absolutely Saros. The goaltending we had from both wasn't even NHL starter level through most of the year, and now it's top 5 from Saros since the new year.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I was looking into where our offensive performance under Hynes would rank compared to teams in the last 10 seasons and at the current rate we would 55/302. Unsurprisingly, most of the teams below that mark failed to make the playoffs, but two of the exceptions were the Cup winning Kings teams. Thinking about it I think that those Kings teams are a much more comparable model to our current situation than any of the other Cup winning teams of the last decade. We have a lot of good-great offensive talent but no true elite level offensive talents, which was also the case with those teams. What lead to their success was a good defensive structure, elite goaltending, and their forwards getting hot at the right time. Right now we're starting to see much more consistent defensive structure and Saros is providing elite goaltending. If we could get the Forsberg-Duchene-Granlund line to return to their early season form and be good for at least a goal each game our depth scoring should be enough even if we aren't putting up gaudy offensive numbers. Of course we're reliant on Saros staying hot but great goaltending is basically necessity for a Cup run regardless of how the rest of the team performs.

 

[Soundgarden]

this is a roster built to score goals. Never been more disappointed in an entire group of players like I have been with this entire top 6. Duchene, Johansson, Forsberg, Arvy, Granlund, Turris. guys that should all be at 20-30 goals per and highly dangerous every game. We should be getting 2 goals per game just from these 6.

The crazy thing is we have 12, almost 13 with Arvidsson, 30 point players. Boston and Washington only have 8, Colorado 9 with a few close, St. Louis 6 with three others at 29 or 28.

If our top guns were where they were supposed to be, the depth we are getting would be among the best in the league.

 

[Predsanddead24]

We are actually giving up more shots and at a higher quality since Hynes. We are getting better quality at a lower volume. Both of these changes are very minimal. The significant change is absolutely Saros. The goaltending we had from both wasn't even NHL starter level through most of the year, and now it's top 5 from Saros since the new year.

I assume by quality you're referring to expected goals? While that may be true that the numbers are more or less the same it seems to my eye that we're doing a much better job of pressuring opposing players while they shoot as well as making sure that the shots are unscreened. Neither of those changes factor into those expected goal models, but I'd argue are just as significant factors as the things that do get factored into the models.