Observations XXVIII

[Adz]

Preds just sent out a survey on whether or not you would attend in person all games, some or none in the upcoming season.

I have no idea what to answer. Do I want to be at every game--sure I do! But I'm already in a risk group. I am not a hermit--I do take a few chances by going to the store and seeing folks on occasion. But my guess is there will be long home stands and I'm not willing to take those chances 3 to 4 times in a week for 4 hours at a whack. If it was one game each week I'd probably take the plunge but I'm going to have to think about this.

 

[Armourboy]

I have no idea what to answer. Do I want to be at every game--sure I do! But I'm already in a risk group. I am not a hermit--I do take a few chances by going to the store and seeing folks on occasion. But my guess is there will be long home stands and I'm not willing to take those chances 3 to 4 times in a week for 4 hours at a whack. If it was one game each week I'd probably take the plunge but I'm going to have to think about this.

And really that is why the question is a bit too generic. I think if you were talking about one game a week lots of people would risk it. However, I think just as many answer no if you are talking 3-4 games a week.

 

[MrJoshua]

I have no idea what to answer. Do I want to be at every game--sure I do! But I'm already in a risk group. I am not a hermit--I do take a few chances by going to the store and seeing folks on occasion. But my guess is there will be long home stands and I'm not willing to take those chances 3 to 4 times in a week for 4 hours at a whack. If it was one game each week I'd probably take the plunge but I'm going to have to think about this.

I'm not in a risk group but I'm not sure how to answer it either. I am trying to be careful because I work around my dad, who is in his seventies. Matching up going to hockey against concerns for my health is one thing; going to watch hockey versus my parents' health is something else entirely.

 

[LCPreds]

I thought the way they framed those questions was kind of interesting. I'm a full season STH and want to go to every game. But I also understand there are plenty of unknowns at present. First, we have no idea what the dynamics of the virus will be on Jan 1st (+a few months). Second, we have no idea what the Preds plan actually looks like. Are they going to just let in 17k? Or are they going to let in however many are possible in order to allow for proper social distancing? Etc. Local mandates might already dictate this last point, not sure.

Without sufficient data I went with what seems to be the only possible prudent answer (to me): #2. Opinions will vary.

EDIT:
I just saw Armourboy's post and was reminded of a third point. If they're going to try to cram 82 games into a shortened season I definitely want no part of a 4 game per week scenario. Covid or no covid. Already have enough difficulty with the Tue/Thu/Sat weeks as it is as we tend to try to sell the Tue games in that case if possible.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Can definitely see the point in waiting on signing any more free agents if there is that much uncertainty about a season happening. Especially to 1-year deals, for players like Hoffman etc.

 

[Marty Party]

They'll probably supplement the STH's who chose not to go with folks off the street. If they're goal is to start half full they'll offer 8600 tickets. Or a quarter full at 4300 tickets.

 

[Armourboy]

Can definitely see the point in waiting on signing any more free agents if there is that much uncertainty about a season happening. Especially to 1-year deals, for players like Hoffman etc.

I think it's safe to say that at this point it's why you haven't seen guys like Granlund and Hoffman signed. No owner wants to pay someone for essentially nothing.

 

[herzausstein]

I think it's safe to say that at this point it's why you haven't seen guys like Granlund and Hoffman signed. No owner wants to pay someone for essentially nothing.

Could be about bonus structure as well. With the league wanting to withhold even more pay from players, they may be wanting much of their pay in bonus form. Teams won’t go for that until they are certain about how the season will play out

 

[LCPreds]

They'll probably supplement the STH's who chose not to go with folks off the street. If they're goal is to start half full they'll offer 8600 tickets. Or a quarter full at 4300 tickets.

so it will basically be like going to games about 10 years ago. I miss the days of having 3 upper deck rows available for 2 people on a college night!

 

[Adz]

so it will basically be like going to games about 10 years ago. I miss the days of having 3 upper deck rows available for 2 people on a college night!

So we'll be able to hear them on the ice and they can hear us.
My 2 stories:

Kimmo Timonen was called for hooking. You could hear him plain as day "Hooking? HOOKING? That was clearly slashing."

2000ish we sat in lower bowl corner, in front of a lady who had an accent that was monotone, loud, and Detroit. Her mantra was "GO PREDS" in this...tone...but occasionally she would hurl monotone insults at the team for poor play. It would carry a relatively good distance. Someone came skating around that end and she yelled at him and he visibly startled and lost the puck. She'd scare kids and players but she was sweet as could be.

 

[herzausstein]

So if there isn't a season,
1) Do contracts just slide? If so do teams have to pay out bonus again next season or just the salary?
2) Does Seattle still enter next season along with expansion draft?

 

[Marty Party]

 

[OldFan]

Now Bettman is spinning the financial dispute with the NHLPA. Much like the PA spun the same dispute. 2 parties, same set of financials, same agreement agreed to in July, 2 different spins.
Reminds me of the old joke. To Accounting: What do the numbers say we made last month? Accounting: What do you want the numbers to say we made last month?
And Bettman wrapped all kinds of Covid stuff around in his comments.
Truth is there is a very small pie and both parties want the biggest piece and this is the issue holding up a decision.
Now go spin some mote.

 

[King Weber]

Ellis and Forsberg made TSN's Top 25 All Time World Junior Championship Players list. Forsberg at 24 and Ellis at 14.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Now Bettman is spinning the financial dispute with the NHLPA. Much like the PA spun the same dispute. 2 parties, same set of financials, same agreement agreed to in July, 2 different spins.
Reminds me of the old joke. To Accounting: What do the numbers say we made last month? Accounting: What do you want the numbers to say we made last month?
And Bettman wrapped all kinds of Covid stuff around in his comments.
Truth is there is a very small pie and both parties want the biggest piece and this is the issue holding up a decision.
Now go spin some mote.

I can definitely imagine them winning the NHLPA over to giving up some of their Covid protections. The players were maybe more cautious in the spring/summer, but faced now with an alternative of scrapping things, I can definitely see them following the path of all the European leagues and other pro sports, at least in terms of their own safety. They'll be more willing to give in on that front.

But then the league still needs fans in the seats to make money. And who knows how that will go after the expected xmas explosion. How long it takes the 2nd wave to drop back down is ultimately going to be the key to how soon they can get fans in the seats. Surely it can't be by Feb.1. But maybe March 1? Maybe. I don't think there's too much progress they can ultimately make on sorting the question out though until that situation becomes clearer. There's no point in coming to any agreements today when there is still that whole situation that simply has to play itself out.

 

[OldFan]

The NHL has fought the good fight to gain recognition as a major league sport in the US going directly against football and basketball.
This Covid pandemic is starting to defeat that progress. Not only might they lose this season but many fans forever.
And all they(NHL, NHLPA) can do is bicker and whine while all their gains are slipping away.
Baseball had a season, playoffs and world series. Football at all levels is being played with problems. Basketball is on go. Hockey season is underway in Europe and US colleges.
But the NHL and NHLPA can’t figure it out.
Poor, poor management in both organizations.

 

[Predsanddead24]

The NHL has fought the good fight to gain recognition as a major league sport in the US going directly against football and basketball.
This Covid pandemic is starting to defeat that progress. Not only might they lose this season but many fans forever.
And all they(NHL, NHLPA) can do is bicker and whine while all their gains are slipping away.
Baseball had a season, playoffs and world series. Football at all levels is being played with problems. Basketball is on go. Hockey season is underway in Europe and US colleges.
But the NHL and NHLPA can’t figure it out.
Poor, poor management in both organizations.

I guess we will see what happens in the end but baseball did nearly this exact same thing prior to restarting where they took it to the final moment before coming to a deal.

Either way though I'm still failing to see why the NHLPA is getting the same level of blame as the owners in this situation. They agreed to a deal well into the pandemic where the players gave concessions to the owners by increasing escrow and deferring salaries, and now the owners are turning around five months later and asking for more concessions.

 

[LCPreds]

The NHL has fought the good fight to gain recognition as a major league sport in the US going directly against football and basketball.
This Covid pandemic is starting to defeat that progress. Not only might they lose this season but many fans forever.
And all they(NHL, NHLPA) can do is bicker and whine while all their gains are slipping away.
Baseball had a season, playoffs and world series. Football at all levels is being played with problems. Basketball is on go. Hockey season is underway in Europe and US colleges.
But the NHL and NHLPA can’t figure it out.
Poor, poor management in both organizations.

Is this really apples to apples though? All of the other major US sports including college football/basketball can likely breakeven, or come really close, on TV revenues alone. What is the breakeven for the NHL? Do we even know that?

I'm not saying you're wrong by the way. I just think it's more complicated than saying 'look at them over there'.

Never really thought about this before but does anyone even know what it costs the Preds to play a single game at Bridgestone? Player salaries + whatever arena costs are in play?

 

[jumb0]

I guess we will see what happens in the end but baseball did nearly this exact same thing prior to restarting where they took it to the final moment before coming to a deal.

Either way though I'm still failing to see why the NHLPA is getting the same level of blame as the owners in this situation. They agreed to a deal well into the pandemic where the players gave concessions to the owners by increasing escrow and deferring salaries, and now the owners are turning around five months later and asking for more concessions.

Baseball seemed a lot uglier but maybe because it get's 1000X the coverage the NHL does.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Baseball seemed a lot uglier but maybe because it get's 1000X the coverage the NHL does.

Yeah it definitely seemed closer to actually getting cancelled then what we've seen so far in the NHL. At one point Manfred even came out and said he wasn't sure if there would be a season, which isn’t a point the NHL hasn't reached yet. Although like you said maybe it seemed more dramatic since baseball gets more coverage in general and their were no other North American sports going on while they were negotiating.

 

[LCPreds]

LeBrun: NHL pushes season start to mid-January, intends on playing 56 games

Looks like shortened season at best. Mid-Jan start with SCF wrap up early July to avoid olympic conflict.

Of course when they start talking COVID numbers it makes me wonder if this is all wrapped around fan attendance in which case I would assume the worst. Specifically:

Obviously, the COVID numbers remain a huge concern. As we get deeper into December, the NHL and NHLPA have to keep the door open for further delays depending on the safety of being able to launch the season in mid-January. The pandemic could still force a further delay and start into February.

 

[glenngineer]

Going to bring this thread back to hockey talk about the Preds and I didn't want to put this in the free-agent frenzy thread.

I see there was chatter of us still being in on Hoffman and an outside chance of bringing back Granlund. There was some discussion of what the lines will be.

A few routes Hynes can go.

Don't sign anyone. JOFA is your first line and you let everyone else come to camp and earn their spot in the lineup. Realistically you have Duchene and Sissons as your 2c and 3c. Beyond that, it's a crapshoot.

Sign someone. JOFA is still your first line. Hope the signing has chemistry with Duchene and everything from above is the same with more depth and hopefully more scoring punch.

Don't sign anyone. Come up with strong pairings of players for the top 3 lines and augment with skill sets that are missing from that pairing. I'd pair Forsberg and Duchene as they see the game at a different level than everyone else on this team. Pair Johansen and Arvidsson as they have always played well together thru the years.

From here, it's a crapshoot again. I hear the chatter of Tolvanen being given a shot. To me, he has to earn that shot. I think Tomasino has a chip on his shoulder and has the offensive skills to shine, especially if he played with guys like Duchene and Forsberg. I looked at Kunin's numbers and they're average at best. He's a younger version of Smith at his best IMO. Probably a third liner.

Sign someone. Do the pairing thing I mentioned above and see where the chips may fall. We need more upper-end talent in the top 6. If we can add someone, there is some flexibility there. Pick up Hoffman, put him out there with either top pair I mentioned, and put Tomasino with the other pair. Tomasino and Arvidsson on opposite wings could give teams fits. Tomasino and Duchene together would do the same.

My dark horse is Afanasyev. The kid is big with great hands. I don't think he makes the top 6 but I wouldn't put it past him to make a run at this roster.

All this said if we don't sign anyone, I think splitting up the top 6 talent we do have currently on to two lines is going to be more effective than have a JOFA line and everyone else. We always talk about the young talent coming in and producing. This sure would be a great time for that to happen.

 

[BigFatCat999]

If you are looking at stats, a healthy Arvidsson makes up the points lost by Turris, I could see Tolvanen replacing Smith. I'm glad someone else is seeing something with Afansyev. I could see Kunin making a dent.

I still would like to see one more forward come in but Tomasino is a wild card.

 

[Scoresberg]

Realistically, if this team is trying to compete, you don't leave $10+ mil in cap space when the season starts, that is rebuilder/re-tooler money spending. You have to either sign Hoffman (since I don't think Granlund is an option) or weaponize your cap space and get a guy like Killorn. The winger group is way too thin as it is.

 

[GoldOnGold]

Depending on financials, I could see the ownership group write this year off as a re-tool. With how much money actually playing is likely to waste, why make the situation even worse by signing some big contracts?