Observations XXVIII

[Scoresberg]

Sounds like Minnesota and St. Louis could be swapping divisions. Would be a bummer to get a tougher team added back.

Minnesota and Dallas switching divisions has also been discussed. Either way, our division gets a bit tougher but it’s still not full of world-beaters. We should have a good chance at making the playoffs.

 

[OldFan]

If you read the news reports(TSN) carefully you can observe there is still considerable bickering. There is not yet a deal with the NHLPA and Bettman does still not have the clubs aligned on the proposed deal. Much work left to do and time is short to start prep for a training camp/season.

 

[jumb0]

 

[jumb0]

 

[Legionnaire11]

Just read about a study being done in Spain on the effectiveness of a 15 minute antigen screening, which could be used to allow larger crowds to gather for events. It would suck to be in line and waiting for the length of time that would take, but if it results in safe crowds of significant size to return sooner, then it's probably worth the effort.

https://www.usnews.com/news/busines...cert-tests-use-of-same-day-covid-19-screening

 

[Byrddog]

Just read about a study being done in Spain on the effectiveness of a 15 minute antigen screening, which could be used to allow larger crowds to gather for events. It would suck to be in line and waiting for the length of time that would take, but if it results in safe crowds of significant size to return sooner, then it's probably worth the effort.

"Coronavirus test prices are disclosing costs ranging anywhere from $20 to $850 per test, according to the Peterson-KFF report. That’s quite a spectrum, and it doesn’t include fees for other services that may be required, like doctor’s visit charges, specimen collection, or other types of diagnostic testing."

Even at the $20 cost it would not even be considered.

 

[Legionnaire11]

This is not the standard COVID test though, and wouldn't require any extra testing or diagnostic fees. It's a fast, simple test and I believe the cost is $5. Which if the study proves it can result in safely allowing a significant crowd at games, any NHL team would be CRAZY not to eat $5 per ticket to run this test and get 10k or whatever it is into the building every night.

 

[LCPreds]

There is no way that is going to work. 15 minutes per person? Who is administering it? Who is handling crowd control before and after the test (while waiting your 15 minutes)? Is the line going to spread throughout town allowing for social distancing while people wait for their 15 minute test results? Etc. It's just not feasible. Getting through the line might take as long as the game.

What about the logistics of this am I missing?

 

[Marty Party]

I'm not taking a test of any kind to go to a Preds game. If people are scared to attend a hockey game, then stay home.

Suppose that tests were somehow made mandatory and everyone that wanted to be subjects were negative. Does that mean no masks and no distancing once you're in the barn? A three hour bubble?

 

[LCPreds]

Suppose that tests were somehow made mandatory and everyone that wanted to be subjects were negative. Does that mean no masks and no distancing once you're in the barn? A three hour bubble?

This brings up a different point. I wonder when we might actually get back to this normal state as it t's not like the virus is just going to disappear.

 

[PredsV82]

This brings up a different point. I wonder when we might actually get back to this normal state as it t's not like the virus is just going to disappear.

If everyone takes the vaccine and it works like it has in the trials, it will disappear to a level that will allow us to go back to normal. The virus needs human hosts to remain in a community.

 

[Scoresberg]

Hot take: I'd rather protect Ekholm in the expansion draft than Ellis. Hear me out why:

• There's a good chance Seattle won't even take Ellis even if they have the chance. He's a really good top-4 defenseman now, but his contract probably won't age well.

• Ekholm has a unique skill set, that no one except him brings to our defense. If Josi ever goes down with an injury, I think Ekholm can handle the duties of a 1D better than Ellis.

• Exposing Ellis allows us to protect 7 forwards, which will be important given our effort to bolster the top-6 this offseason.

• If Ellis gets taken, we just re-sign Ekholm and we won't have $20+ mil tied up in three defensemen. Ekholm will command around $5.5-6.5 mil I think. Ekholm can carry a defense pair better than Ellis.

• If Ellis doesn't get taken, we can flip him or Ekholm that offseason or during the next season but we've been able to protect the seven forwards in the expansion draft, which means we're not losing anyone important. We're also able to garner some return for one of the players.

 

[LCPreds]

If everyone takes the vaccine and it works like it has in the trials, it will disappear to a level that will allow us to go back to normal. The virus needs human hosts to remain in a community.

yep I guess that’s the rub. We have a solution in sight and hopefully everyone will take the vaccine so we can get back to normal. I’m ready for it once they become available here.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Hot take: I'd rather protect Ekholm in the expansion draft than Ellis. Hear me out why:

• There's a good chance Seattle won't even take Ellis even if they have the chance. He's a really good top-4 defenseman now, but his contract probably won't age well.

• Ekholm has a unique skill set, that no one except him brings to our defense. If Josi ever goes down with an injury, I think Ekholm can handle the duties of a 1D better than Ellis.

• Exposing Ellis allows us to protect 7 forwards, which will be important given our effort to bolster the top-6 this offseason.

• If Ellis gets taken, we just re-sign Ekholm and we won't have $20+ mil tied up in three defensemen. Ekholm will command around $5.5-6.5 mil I think. Ekholm can carry a defense pair better than Ellis.

• If Ellis doesn't get taken, we can flip him or Ekholm that offseason or during the next season but we've been able to protect the seven forwards in the expansion draft, which means we're not losing anyone important. We're also able to garner some return for one of the players.

It doesn't seem like that much of a Hot Take to me. It just makes sense. Ekholm is better than Ellis. And I also agree fully that Ellis' contract will not age well.

I do think that Seattle would take Ellis, however. If we're exposing him, he's gone.

But there are a lot of free agent defensemen on the horizon next summer, and I'd have confidence in being able to replace a loss with a UFA signing. Of course, one could therefore make the same argument about losing Ekholm instead. But I'd still rather get out of the Ellis deal, and count on the Covid-corrected market allowing us to sign a viable top-4 replacement at better terms. And extend Ekholm at better terms too.

Although I don't think Poile signed Ellis to the deal he did with any thought in mind of letting him go anywhere else. I suspect they still look at Ellis for leadership/intangibles etc and WILL protect him. So in that sense, our fantasy of exposing Ellis is indeed a Hot Take. I can see them even considering exposing Fabbro more likely than Ellis or Ekholm, at this point, in the sad world of practical reality. We really need this season to happen to get the extra data. :S

 

[Scoresberg]

It doesn't seem like that much of a Hot Take to me. It just makes sense. Ekholm is better than Ellis. And I also agree fully that Ellis' contract will not age well.

I do think that Seattle would take Ellis, however. If we're exposing him, he's gone.

But there are a lot of free agent defensemen on the horizon next summer, and I'd have confidence in being able to replace a loss with a UFA signing. Of course, one could therefore make the same argument about losing Ekholm instead. But I'd still rather get out of the Ellis deal, and count on the Covid-corrected market allowing us to sign a viable top-4 replacement at better terms. And extend Ekholm at better terms too.

Although I don't think Poile signed Ellis to the deal he did with any thought in mind of letting him go anywhere else. I suspect they still look at Ellis for leadership/intangibles etc and WILL protect him. So in that sense, our fantasy of exposing Ellis is indeed a Hot Take. I can see them even considering exposing Fabbro more likely than Ellis or Ekholm, at this point, in the sad world of practical reality. We really need this season to happen to get the extra data. :S

Pretty much the thing I'm basing this take on is that while Josi and Ellis are a dominant pairing in the regular season, the last three playoff runs have left a lot to be desired and when they can't outscore their mistakes (harder in the playoffs) they are hurting the team. That was manageable when we had an elite shutdown pairing in Ekholm and Subban but the makeup of our defense has since changed. I'm confident Fabbro will continue to progress but I have hard time believing that Ekholm and Fabbro could form a shutdown pairing such as Ekholm and Subban could.

If we decide to keep both Ekholm and Ellis, I suggest that whenever we get into the playoffs, we break up the Josi-Ellis pairing and put a stay-at-home D beside Josi and re-unite Ekholm & Ellis. It gives us more balance throughout and there won't be as a big a liability on the ice as Josi and Ellis have been these last three playoff runs.

I have every reason to believe that at least for the next 3 or 4 years, Josi can carry a pairing where his partner is a stay-at-home defenseman and doesn't move the puck too much. Like an Adam Larsson-type of defenseman we've talked about a lot here.

Whether this scenario is a likely one, it is difficult to say right now. If things go south next year, I think Poile will seriously consider exposing Ellis. If we get into the playoffs and that pairing shits the bed again, I think Poile has to realize it isn't going to work without an elite shutdown pair behind them handling the hardest matchups.

 

[triggrman]

I'd protect both Ellis and Ekholm. I don't see any forward not named Forsberg, Johansen, Duchene or Arvy that would be as tough to replace as Ellis or Ekholm or that had more value. I might even leave Duchene exposed rather than Ellis or Ekholm.

 

[triggrman]

Pretty much the thing I'm basing this take on is that while Josi and Ellis are a dominant pairing in the regular season, the last three playoff runs have left a lot to be desired and when they can't outscore their mistakes (harder in the playoffs) they are hurting the team. That was manageable when we had an elite shutdown pairing in Ekholm and Subban but the makeup of our defense has since changed. I'm confident Fabbro will continue to progress but I have hard time believing that Ekholm and Fabbro could form a shutdown pairing such as Ekholm and Subban could.

If we decide to keep both Ekholm and Ellis, I suggest that whenever we get into the playoffs, we break up the Josi-Ellis pairing and put a stay-at-home D beside Josi and re-unite Ekholm & Ellis. It gives us more balance throughout and there won't be as a big a liability on the ice as Josi and Ellis have been these last three playoff runs.

I have every reason to believe that at least for the next 3 or 4 years, Josi can carry a pairing where his partner is a stay-at-home defenseman and doesn't move the puck too much. Like an Adam Larsson-type of defenseman we've talked about a lot here.

Whether this scenario is a likely one, it is difficult to say right now. If things go south next year, I think Poile will seriously consider exposing Ellis. If we get into the playoffs and that pairing shits the bed again, I think Poile has to realize it isn't going to work without an elite shutdown pair behind them handling the hardest matchups.

I think by the next season Fabbro will be ready to be that guy. I'd say early on he's looked as solid as any 21 year old defender we've had on the ice not named Shea Weber.

 

[originalpredfan]

Hot take: I'd rather protect Ekholm in the expansion draft than Ellis. Hear me out why:

• There's a good chance Seattle won't even take Ellis even if they have the chance. He's a really good top-4 defenseman now, but his contract probably won't age well.

• Ekholm has a unique skill set, that no one except him brings to our defense. If Josi ever goes down with an injury, I think Ekholm can handle the duties of a 1D better than Ellis.

• Exposing Ellis allows us to protect 7 forwards, which will be important given our effort to bolster the top-6 this offseason.

• If Ellis gets taken, we just re-sign Ekholm and we won't have $20+ mil tied up in three defensemen. Ekholm will command around $5.5-6.5 mil I think. Ekholm can carry a defense pair better than Ellis.

• If Ellis doesn't get taken, we can flip him or Ekholm that offseason or during the next season but we've been able to protect the seven forwards in the expansion draft, which means we're not losing anyone important. We're also able to garner some return for one of the players.

I like this scenario, but doesn't Seattle have to meet a certain salary cap level which could mean they would prefer to take on Ellis's hit?

 

[LCPreds]

I wonder if in general we under appreciate Ellis. Seems to me like we'd be much better off shopping him (or Ekholm) as opposed to simply exposing one of them. Maybe we could get a forward worth protecting over one already on our roster.

To be honest I haven't looked very closely at our given situation and what the market might look like so this may be completely non-sensical.

 

[Armourboy]

Poile is going to keep all 4 Dmen. If he decides one needs to go he will look to move them for something. If he leaves them unprotected because things went south it ain't gonna matter who we decide to keep anyways.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I'd protect both Ellis and Ekholm. I don't see any forward not named Forsberg, Johansen, Duchene or Arvy that would be as tough to replace as Ellis or Ekholm or that had more value. I might even leave Duchene exposed rather than Ellis or Ekholm.

And that's why we need this season. It's still not really a slam dunk if we go 7-3-1 or 4-4-1 yet.

If it's 4-4-1, JoFA-Duchene-Josi-Ellis-Ekholm-Fabbro, then basically we lose Kunin. And we haven't even seen Kunin play yet, so who knows how much of a loss that might be.

If it's 7-3-1... we lose a defenseman. Whichever one is left unprotected out of Ellis/Ekholm/Fabbro.

Although to be fair, for all that I argue for protecting Fabbro over Ellis, I could also see myself in a few months arguing to protect Kunin over Duchene. If Kunin plays well and signs a nice enough contract, and Duchene doesn't get himself back to the level we're expecting him to perform at for what he's getting paid, I wouldn't balk at offering Seattle the opportunity to help get us out from under that contract too. I'm a little less hard on Joey than some, probably, but it could be him instead of or in addition to Duchene, though. If they put up 2 bad years in a row, is Seattle going to look at them at $8M? Maybe you can almost effectively go 6-4-1 exposing them! I won't come close to a decision until the whole season has played out, I'm sure.

 

[Armourboy]

Only way I think we go 7-3 is if the forwards have a hell of season or if everything just goes to crap and he is just trying to save as many assets as possible so he can move them later. I don't see either of those scenarios happening though.

 

[jumb0]

I wonder if in general we under appreciate Ellis.

To me, in that 18-19 season where nobody seemed to give a shit, he stuck out the most as giving the least shit. He was especially bad in the playoffs.
That performance combined with having just signed the big contract put him in the crosshairs.

 

[Scoresberg]

Poile is going to keep all 4 Dmen..

If Duchene and Joey can bounce back. If one of them doesn't I don't think we're going to protect them especially if Kunin has a big year.

Farrance is a wild card as well that could mix this scenario up.

 

[triggrman]

If Duchene and Joey can bounce back. If one of them doesn't I don't think we're going to protect them especially if Kunin has a big year.

Farrance is a wild card as well that could mix this scenario up.

Farrance would not be eligible would he?