Observations XXVII

[drwpreds]

The latest “ Biggest game of the Year” tonight. Sets the tone going forward. Playing a team in a similar position (underperforming with high expectations). A must-win against a talented team that can breakout at anytime. The Playoffs have started. Buckle up.

I think I am about ready to unbuckle.

Anyone watch the postgame on FSTN? For once, I have to give some credit to the broadcast, specifically Crisp and Mason. They pretty much ripped the Preds a new one- no sugar coating whatsoever from those two.

And deservedly so..........

 

[Pred303]

as many on here said , it was obviously lavy's coaching that failed.

 

[Armourboy]

as many on here said , it was obviously lavy's coaching that failed.

I put blame on him for allowing these attitudes to fester and some of their odd choices on special teams systems, but it's pretty obvious that there is a bigger problem.

Joey only had 10 minutes of ice time tonight so apparently we aren't the only ones who aren't thrilled with his play.

I don't know what the answer is, it just feels like a team that is too talented to just blow up, but then the guys that are supposed to be the core seem to be the biggest issue.

I don't think trading a guy like Granlund wakes anyone up. Goaltending hasn't been stellar either and I have no clue what the answer to that is either.

Maybe its that time but the thought of that sucks. I know one thing I'd rather watch a bunch of less talented guys bust ass and be a bubble team than to watch this group.

 

[Scoresberg]

At least after that bullshit, there's no clinging on to false hope. This season was already lost in that Anaheim game.

Sell a few pieces at the TDL, shake up the roster a bit in the summer and get a high pick in the draft.

I don't know how you can blame Poile for all this. He's build a competitive team for many years even though essentially never getting any high picks. Preds are one of the most successful teams in the league over the last few years, but without generational talent you can't expect to compete for the Cup forever.

 

[LCPreds]

Do you remember when we were worried about who was getting protected in the Seattle expansion draft? Oh man those were the days.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

It is honestly in the team's best interest to sell now.

You get to set the market and you get to "tank" faster. If you are able to move Bonino, Granlund, Smith and Joey without taking a bunch of salary back, you are looking good for 20-21 free agency and tanking for a high draft pick this year.

Get some plucky kids back that want to claw their way into the league.

We are almost at the point where a three game win streak doesn't put us in a playoff position.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I put blame on him for allowing these attitudes to fester and some of their odd choices on special teams systems, but it's pretty obvious that there is a bigger problem.

Joey only had 10 minutes of ice time tonight so apparently we aren't the only ones who aren't thrilled with his play.

Thing is, this is like the first time he's finally felt some heat. He has played like crap all season long, but nobody ever sat him down until now. Finally. So I look at that as a positive from the coaching change. Maybe it will help wake him up. It would definitely be better for us if he could somehow be salvaged. I'd listen to trade offers, but end of the day we are going to be a better team if Johansen can be brought back to life than we are if we sell low on him. 10 mins one game, see how he responds. Still loafing? Pressbox. See how he responds. Etc. If you can do that with Turris you can do it with Johansen. (And Turris certainly deserved it less).

I don't know what the answer is, it just feels like a team that is too talented to just blow up, but then the guys that are supposed to be the core seem to be the biggest issue.

I don't think trading a guy like Granlund wakes anyone up. Goaltending hasn't been stellar either and I have no clue what the answer to that is either.

My new scheme for goaltending: play Saros the rest of the season like he's the #1 goalie. We have 34 games left? Saros should start at least 25 of them. One thing we know for sure is that Rinne is not the future. He's a legend, but snapping him out of his slump in a lost season doesn't do a damned thing for us. Saros is the unknown here. Prior to this season, it looked like he was the future. But he's had a shaky 20 games this season so far. Is that enough to close the book on him? I don't think so. Play him the rest of the way and find out. We need to know heading into the summer if we need to chase goaltending as a priority or not. Starting Ingram a game or two may not hurt either, but I'm also less sure that it helps solve anything. It's too late for even a Binnington style run to be on our radar now. We can evaluate Ingram on a longer term trajectory still.

Maybe its that time but the thought of that sucks. I know one thing I'd rather watch a bunch of less talented guys bust ass and be a bubble team than to watch this group.

 

[token grinder]

I would give Saros the next game and if he is as poor as Rinne (goal 2 I think was a youth hockey save if he is on his post) you call up Ingram in an attempt at a last hail mary on the season. Kind of that Rinne playbook when he was called up for good.

I like Johansen's effort (along with the team's) in the third, though it was too little too late. The optimist in me hopes playing a game with Watson on his wing and 4th line minutes pissed him off a little bit.

It absolutely sucks when the only consistent effort you get night in night out is from the same 5-6 players each night and most of those guys belong in the bottom 6, if not 4th line altogether.

Last night would be the last time I see Watson in the lineup. Forever. He hits a little. And out of position every shift. When one guy decides to go into business for himself and not letting his teammates do their job and tries to do it for them, whatever structure you have goes to shit. And every shift of his goes to absolute shit. Tired of that. Nobody can convince me that Trenin isn't a better option than him.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Last night would be the last time I see Watson in the lineup. Forever. He hits a little. And out of position every shift. When one guy decides to go into business for himself and not letting his teammates do their job and tries to do it for them, whatever structure you have goes to ****. And every shift of his goes to absolute ****. Tired of that. Nobody can convince me that Trenin isn't a better option than him.

I've been holding back my criticism of Watson because I felt like it would be a very unpopular opinion here. But I couldn't agree more. The way he played the 1st period of the Winter Classic is the Watson we need. This is a guy who was waived and saw the writing on the wall, rebuilt his game and earned an NHL job. He needs to play that style to be an NHL player, which is a big hitting game and getting in opponents face/dropping the gloves when needed. Watson was vital to the Cup run with his physical play, but has been consistently softening since then. If he could get that edge back, he's an effective 4th liner who can chip in a bit offensively. Whatever he's trying to do now however isn't helping the team.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

And poile just gave him a 3 year extension so add that to the list of poile's mistakes?

 

[LCPreds]

Oh how quickly the mob turns.

 

[FossilFndr]

Oh how quickly the mob turns.

Quickly? I think it's been a slow burn for more than 2 months. Finally got enough mass to turn over the dumpster. The simple reaction was to blame coaching going back to special teams last year. Hire a coach, fire another 2 coaches, hire whomever was out there ... We may come to regret the Lavy/McCarthy firing. It's easier to blame a couple coaches and their X & O's or assume they lost the room when the room became complacent. I even put it on maybe the PK personality that could have been disruptive but maybe he wasn't the problem in the room, though on ice he had diminishing speed and poor decision making. I sure wish that PK/Weber trade never happened, even with Shea out for so long. I'm just grasping for straws but wonder about what the team would be now if that trade alone didn't happen.

Time for Plan B. Oh yeah we tried plans B & C.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I sure wish that PK/Weber trade never happened, even with Shea out for so long. I'm just grasping for straws but wonder about what the team would be now if that trade alone didn't happen.

Based on the results when Weber was here probably looking at another finish at 3rd/4th in the division and continuous 1st to 2nd round playoff exits. So about the same situation as we have been anyways without the Cup run or Presidents Trophy.

 

[LCPreds]

Q I sure wish that PK/Weber trade never happened, even with Shea out for so long. I'm just grasping for straws but wonder about what the team would be now if that trade alone didn't happen.

I understand some had a dislike for PK but it's hard to argue with the results post trade. And with those results came a pile on of expectations that we have never dealt with before. Now we're getting to see what a typical fan base with real expectations is like.

We have no way of knowing but I'm guessing if that trade never happened then we wouldn't have made the Cup run and probably wouldn't have won the President's Trophy. Might have won the Central last year though. And I doubt we would really be any better off today with Shea vs. Duchene. But who knows.

And in terms of mob gathering speed it's all relative. Two months is within a single season and people were calling this guy Wizard! for quite some time. He went from Gandalf the White to some extra in one of the Harry Potter spin off films in a short period of time.

 

[drwpreds]

Just a random thought here, and some of this is just self-therapy to get me through this horrible season- it is long so feel free to ignore:

As I was watching yet another horrible game last night that once again ruined my entire night- I got to thinking about this:

After suffering through a miserable season like this one- one in which is feels like there really hasn’t been a single thing to be happy or feel good about, I will never, ever again take for granted/not appreciate the beauty of a great regular season.

I know that winning a Cup is THE most important thing- especially when your team/franchise is at the point we are right now- we should have been a true Cup contender this year and I totally get that for many, it is now win the cup or bust.

I get it- it is the most important thing for me as well- Preds winning the Cup is the #1 thing on my sports bucket list.

But there is something to be said for regular season success and the happiness it brings, and I think many take that for granted. Many say- “I don’t care what we do in the regular season- its all about the playoffs”- I no longer agree with that.

I am just talking about myself here, but I am sure many of you, if not most- are like me- I LIVE AND DIE with every game. I often joke about a love/hate relationship with the hockey season- it is 82 nights of stress. Even meaningless early season October games- I am still living and dying with each one. If the Preds win, I am in a great mood until the next game. If they lose- it is just the opposite- misery. And when you have as many ugly, depressing games as we have had this year, it is just absolute misery for me.

We have to drive 6 hours round trip for every game we attend- and when we win- it is a great trip and a great day. But when we lose, the whole day feels like a grind. (And I believe the Preds are something like 4-13 in the last 17 games we have attended, so it has been nothing but misery for us). And if you are a season ticket holder, you are also shelling out thousands of dollars to watch these regular season games.

Have a great regular season and it is almost 7 months of happiness and great times on a daily basis.

I honestly think a President’s trophy season like we had 2 years ago- 53 wins, 117 points- is a close second to playoff success. And I also think it is an accomplishment that is almost as hard as winning a Cup.

Heck, we all complained about last season- but right about now, a 100 point division winning season- even with a first round playoff exit- sounds pretty darn good right about now compared to what we are going through right now.

Again, I get it- winning the Cup and playoffs is the most important thing- but the fact of the matter is the odds are none of us are ever going to experience a Cup win. No matter how good your franchise is there are no guarantees. It took the Blues FIFTY freaking years. I have been a hockey fan for over 30 years and have not.

I am guessing many of you will completely disagree with my whole premise here, but I will never underestimate the value of winning in the regular season again. Give me a 116 point season for next year right now and I will take it- even if I know it will result in no Cup. Because that means almost 7 months, on a daily basis- of great times. Or, the complete opposite of what we are going through now.

 

[LCPreds]

I honestly think a President’s trophy season like we had 2 years ago- 53 wins, 117 points- is a close second to playoff success. And I also think it is an accomplishment that is almost as hard as winning a Cup.

I agree with you on this and have actually gone back and forth. After the Cup run all I wanted was to get back to the playoffs. It made it difficult to really enjoy the President's Trophy because I just wanted the playoffs to start. But in retrospect I can't decide which is more difficult from a team perspective. Obviously the spectacle is all on winning the Cup so that is where the focus goes. But there is also something to be said for the difficulty of winning the marathon.

This season has definitely made me appreciate the regular season more. It has also made me come to terms with the downside of having legit expectations. This is something I've dealt with as a Titans fan for years but have never really had to worry about with the Preds. Sometimes I wish we could go back to being the little guy who squeaks in as the 7 or 8 every year and hopes to get to the 2nd round. But I'm not sure I'll ever get that way of thinking back and not sure I like the added stress the expectations bring.

 

[Armourboy]

Based on the results when Weber was here probably looking at another finish at 3rd/4th in the division and continuous 1st to 2nd round playoff exits. So about the same situation as we have been anyways without the Cup run or Presidents Trophy.

Yep not sure why so many think Weber would have changed anything. Our best post season run was with Fisher as Captain, and our best regular season was with Josi as captain.

With his contract I'm not sure Weber wouldn't have been just as complacent by now.

 

[Kat Predator]

Thing is, this is like the first time he's finally felt some heat. He has played like crap all season long, but nobody ever sat him down until now.

I know he took the opening faceoff, but his TOI says he's centering the 4th line now. The lines, in terms of TOI, were upside down.

1. Bonino, 2. Turris, 3. Duchene, 4. Johansen. And it could be argued if Grimaldi could hit an open net more often than not, the Bonino line would be carrying this team almost completely.

 

[Kat Predator]

Quick add: We're squarely behind the 8-ball now in terms of officiating. There were some pretty lame calls against us in that game. They were the sorts of phantom calls that are extremely rare against what the refs consider "good teams" who are skating hard and on their game, but somehow pile up against bottom feeders.

 

[Legionnaire11]

re: The President's Trophy

I have said it all along, it's such an underappreciated achievement among fans these days. Even among a lot of players "there's only one trophy we want"... but prior to being introduced with hardware and name 'The President's Trophy", the league had the top team raise a banner that read "League Champions".

And that's really what it is. The 82 game schedule is league play, and the best team after the league schedule is the "League Champions". The Stanley Cup on the other hand is for the playoff champions.

Obviously, there's no way to compare the President's Trophy to the Stanley Cup. But it's still an awesome accomplishment and should be celebrated much more than it is. I honestly feel like many around the league would rather see a player on their team win a major player trophy like the Art Ross, Vezina, Norris or Hart than have the team win the President's Trophy.

For me, the President's Trophy is so hard to win because you have to be consistently great across 82 games. The Stanley Cup is so hard to win because the playoffs are a lot more random and a bad matchup, injury or a hot streak can put out the best team.

But anyway, there should be more value placed on the regular season. For too many, especially in today's attention-challenged world, the regular season isn't even a concern, it's meaningless other than playoff seeding. For me, the 82 game journey and spending most of the year diving into the daily grind of following the team is highly enjoyable, even when things aren't going so well. This is NHL hockey, it's the best in the world night after night, nobody should take that for granted or brush it off just because the biggest trophy isn't on the line.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I understand some had a dislike for PK but it's hard to argue with the results post trade. And with those results came a pile on of expectations that we have never dealt with before. Now we're getting to see what a typical fan base with real expectations is like.

We have no way of knowing but I'm guessing if that trade never happened then we wouldn't have made the Cup run and probably wouldn't have won the President's Trophy. Might have won the Central last year though. And I doubt we would really be any better off today with Shea vs. Duchene. But who knows.

And in terms of mob gathering speed it's all relative. Two months is within a single season and people were calling this guy Wizard! for quite some time. He went from Gandalf the White to some extra in one of the Harry Potter spin off films in a short period of time.

PK definitely brought some enthusiasm. Maybe sometimes it rubbed people the wrong way, maybe sometimes it rubbed off on people. But either way it brought some life to a room. It would be ironic if he was actually a key positive ingredient in our room!

 

[Byrddog]

From Dec 27 to Jan 27 12 games

Forsberg 2-5-7
Johnasen 2-2-4
Duchene 2-6-8
Arvy 5-0-5
Bonino 1-4-5
Jarnkrok 0-1-1
Rocco 2-4-6
Smith 6-1-7
Turris 1-2-3
Granlund 5-0-5
Josi 0-13-13
Ellis 0-0-0 Only 3 games
Ekholm 0-7-7
Sissions 1-0-1
Watson 1-1-2
Trenin 1-4-5 7 games

Rinne 3 wins 25GA 2.77 .900
Saros 1 win 13GA 3.25 .895

4 wins in 12 games across a month is a little more than a slump. The coaching change may or may have not influenced this. But it is hard not to shoulder the blame on the players, no matter ones feelings about an individual player. Duchene with 8 points led the team pacing for a 54 point pace FF9 and Smith pacing for 47 point season each. Smith led in goals but only scored a goal in one win and had a two goal game in a loss. Arvy only scored in 1 win, None of Granlunds goals were in wins. From top to bottom not one of these guys can be considered playing well now.

Some of these guys are considerably better than this years performance the question is which ones to keep to build around. We really have no idea who the problem guys are in the room but from what is seen on the ice the two that stand out as being an issue are Johansen and Forsberg. Both have issues that have been discussed Johansens laziness and Forsberg increasingly playing like he is not a team guy, more and more he tries to be McDavid and do it all and he is just not that good. He is a good player no doubt but he needs to do what made him successful. Forsbergs play since the Cup finals has been visibly short of what he did years before. Arvy, Smith and Grimaldi are the hardest playing guys on the team. None of the three have the best shots in the world but they succeed by effort. If Forsberg and Johansen played with that effort they could be PPG guys. Duchene is lost in space he is better than he has played but is brought down by those around him.

If it were my choice I would keep Arvy, Grimaldi and Duchene as untouchables the rest I would listen to offers. Load up on quality prospects and picks and hire a coach that would get back a work ethic. Delaying this at this point is senseless. The organization is past the point of just getting into the playoffs and being happy. Last year and this half season has shown nothing to suggest this group could take another step forward. And minor tweeks will not fix every area on the ice where the team is failing.

 

[wadesworld]

Rinne and Saros are the problem, CAN they fix it? Is this a 'drop a dope' where they play hot towards the playoffs?

The idea that Rinne and Saros both forgot how to play goalie in the same season neither makes logical sense, nor does it pass the eye test. That they're both struggling at an almost identical level is clear evidence the problem is the team in front of them.

While there's probably no harm in giving Ingram a shot, this romantic notion that an AHL goalie is going to come in and play such an elite level as to turn the season around is so highly unlikely it's almost not worth discussing. Yes, I know - Jordan Binnington. But if anyone thinks this team can take the same path the Blues did, I don't know what to say.

 

[FossilFndr]

Based on the results when Weber was here probably looking at another finish at 3rd/4th in the division and continuous 1st to 2nd round playoff exits. So about the same situation as we have been anyways without the Cup run or Presidents Trophy.

Like I said, maybe just grasping at straws. Any port in a storm .. add additional appropriate metaphors.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

34 games left... 45 points needed to be fairly confident of making the playoffs. Perhaps just 41 points to sneak in with some luck.

21-10-3 = "in"
20-13-1 = "maybe"

There's quite a few back-to-backs the rest of the way, and other than the game against the Devils every team we play before the trade deadline is ahead of us in the standings... if anybody hasn't given up hope yet then surely the next 13 games will settle things once and for all. I think it's important for Poile to KNOW where we stand at the deadline. He seems like an optimist though... hopefully he's not entertaining any thoughts of trying to pre-emptively Buy ahead of the deadline as his way of trying to save the team.