Observations XXVII

[FossilFndr]

Predators historical moment.

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[Byrddog]

Good start. And Pekka with a goal could be the very thing that gets him back on track.

 

[bdub24]

First post (ok, second after the OP)! Unbelieavable goal from Pekka! I didn't get to see all of it, but when I tuned in during the second period, I was not particularly impressed with the passing especially in the neutral zone last night, and it looked like Ryan and Arvy both were either gassed or not giving 100% defensively. So obviously Hynes has more work to do to wake our number 1s up. How Josi isn't the slam dunk for Norris is just disgusting.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I feel a bit bad for Blackwell whose first career goal has gotten entirely overshadowed by Pekka's. Also saw this on Reddit that Pekka has more goals this season than these players with >35 GP:

Kris Russell (EDM)
Nick Jensen (WSH)
Andy Greene (NJ)
David Savard (CBJ)
Mark Jankowski (CGY)
Jordie Benn (VAN)
Charlie McAvoy (BOS)
Dan Hamhuis (NAS)
Anthony Bitetto (WPG)

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I feel a bit bad for Blackwell whose first career goal has gotten entirely overshadowed by Pekka's. Also saw this on Reddit that Pekka has more goals this season than:

Kris Russell (EDM)
Nick Jensen (WSH)
Andy Greene (NJ)
David Savard (CBJ)
Mark Jankowski (CGY)
Jordie Benn (VAN)
Charlie McAvoy (BOS)
Dan Hamhuis (NAS)
Anthony Bitetto (WPG)

... put together!

 

[Armourboy]

Rewatching the game and I can say you can see the difference in what Hynes wants to do.

Hopefully the execution gets a bit better, but I suspect the centers and Dmen that have been with the team the longest will have a few more issues.

 

[101st_fan]

Even with the rough stretch against Pitt, Dallas, then in SoCal ... this team is still somehow within theoretical reach of Vegas, Calgary and Winnipeg with its games in hand. It can't keep the hot run, extremely cold run model of the past month to get back into things. An October like month would do wonders ... now to see what the staff changes produce, if anything.

The next three games are surprisingly crucial given the time of the season and who we're playing. Beat the Jets and Oilers and we gain ground without losing games in hand on them ... the Oilers are within reach with our current games in hand, the Jets become within reach if we beat them ... then the bottom dwelling Ducks at home. Three games that if they go well put this team back on the bubble. If they go poorly we see a gap between the Preds and those ahead of them that the games in hand no longer cover.

 

[herzausstein]

Next stretch of games can be make or break

winnipeg and Edmonton are just ahead of us in the standings. We will likely be fighting them for the final wildcard spots. Beat both in regulation and it goes a LONG way towards making the post season. Pair the wins with the confidence it would build in the new system and the season could be flipped quickly.

likewise lose those games and catching them becomes a lot harder.

 

[adsfan]

I looked for this thread on the main NHL board.

Since there have only been 12 goalies to score in the NHL, I think it deserves it!

It was the icing on the cake to beat Chicago! You won't find anybody on the planet that wants Chicago to lose in sports more than a Milwaukeean.

I liked Blackwell's first NHL goal and Bones' Bankshot ENG goal!

 

[Roman Yoshi]

This Winnipeg game could not be bigger.

Win, you keep rolling on the good vibes from Chicago.

Lose, well, we continue to dig our playoff grave.

 

[LCPreds]

Every metric I find tells me we shouldn't be this bad. We just need to manage to squeak into that 8 spot...

Here's the most recent example:

NHL Power Rankings -MoneyPuck NHL Power Rankings

 

[Predsanddead24]

Every metric I find tells me we shouldn't be this bad. We just need to manage to squeak into that 8 spot...

Here's the most recent example:

NHL Power Rankings -MoneyPuck NHL Power Rankings

I dont know much about their methodology but moneypuck always seems to be really wonky. For example, Montreal is 2-7-1 in their last 10 yet are number 7 in those power rankings.

 

[LCPreds]

I dont know much about their methodology but moneypuck always seems to be really wonky. For example, Montreal is 2-7-1 in their last 10 yet are number 7 in those power rankings.

That's one example. Here is another.

Home | Charting Hockey

Daily Team Charts | Charting Hockey

I mean I don't think it's a huge surprise really. Most metrics are primarily measuring 5v5. We know our special teams are the real killer and the goaltending hasn't been great. This isn't a unique comment around here but if we could just fix the PK...

 

[Legionnaire11]

I dont know much about their methodology but moneypuck always seems to be really wonky. For example, Montreal is 2-7-1 in their last 10 yet are number 7 in those power rankings.

Moneypuck punches in a bunch of advanced stats and then runs like 100,000 simulations of the season to get their results.

The big issue there, is that, IMO advanced stats are not predictive despite their best claims to be. They can only describe what happened in previous games. On top of that, the stats that are used by fans and bloggers, are not adequate, especially when we try to use them as a predictive tool.

Advanced stats are good for NHL coaching staffs who can use them alongside their tactics. For example, fans look at zone entry stats and say "Player X is the best at bringing the puck into the O-zone", but they have no context beyond that. But an NHL coaching staff knows exactly what they have asked their players to be doing with the puck, and they know how the opposition reacted and adjusted to their strategies, so they can look at zone entries and say "player X had a lot of success" and expand on that with "because he did this and this with the puck, and the opponents reacted to him by doing this and this" or if a player is struggling they can say "player Z didn't have a good night carrying the puck into the zone, and it was because he didn't get support from his linemate and the opponent was able to shut him down by doing this and this". They can then use that knowledge to adjust for the next game. They also have way more data than we do and look at different things than we do. NHL teams often employ up to 100 stat watchers at any given game, each counting specific events and compiling the data to be presented to the coaching staff at intermission and after the game.

That's all stuff that we as fans do not know, and why fans forming opinions and making definitive statements about players and teams based on advanced stats is a foolish endeavor.

 

[101st_fan]

Corsica did a piece on the correlation of xGA to goals scored. The correlation wasn't there.

 

[Predsanddead24]

That's all stuff that we as fans do not know, and why fans forming opinions and making definitive statements about players and teams based on advanced stats is a foolish endeavor.

This is what drives me nuts. So many of the analytics lovers try to take the approach that a mismatch between reality and their models indicate that the true result is "wrong" and should revert to their model results. Really though all it suggests to me is that their model is wrong.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Corsica did a piece on the correlation of xGA to goals scored. The correlation wasn't there.

Calling it expected goals was a smart move because it makes it sound way more robust than it is.

 

[GoldOnGold]

Not sure who needed that win more - Juuse or us.

 

[herzausstein]

A much needed regulation win. Saros with a shutout as well. The guys are going to be building some confidence here. Two wins in division (Chicago and Winnipeg). Two goals against in two games since starting a new system (Hynes didn't change anything in the first game he coached). If the guys can continue to build on this, there's a solid chance of getting back into the playoffs. If we beat Edmonton in regulation, odds continue to get better.

 

[originalpredfan]

They need to tell Trenin to look for permanent residence in Nashville as soon as they come off the road. He plays the game with the passion, talent, and grit needed to succeed.

 

[Kat Predator]

They need to tell Trenin to look for permanent residence in Nashville as soon as they come off the road. He plays the game with the passion, talent, and grit needed to succeed.

He looks like he's done with Milwaukee.

 

[lstcyr]

He looks like he's done with Milwaukee.

Does Trenin playing like he is put Watson on the trading block?

 

[herzausstein]

Does Trenin playing like he is put Watson on the trading block?

One can hope

 

[Armourboy]

Will be interesting to see what Poile does if Sissons and Watson gets back. Trenin is essentially a better version of Watson and Blackwell has played well enough I hate to see him lose his spot.

I guess the good thing is though they can take their time and if someone else is hurt they could sit them and keep Trenin and Blackwell playing in other spots.

 

[neelynugs]

Rewatching the game and I can say you can see the difference in what Hynes wants to do.

Hopefully the execution gets a bit better, but I suspect the centers and Dmen that have been with the team the longest will have a few more issues.

haven't seen the last few games. what is nashville doing differently under hynes?
did they go to zone defense?