Observations XXVII

[Porter Stoutheart]

The idea that Rinne and Saros both forget how to play goalie in the same season neither makes logical sense, nor does it pass the eye test. That they're both struggling at an almost identical level is clear evidence the problem is the team in front of them.

While there's probably no harm in giving Ingram a shot, this romantic notion that an AHL goalie is going to come in and play such an elite level as to turn the season around is so highly unlikely it's almost not worth discussing. Yes, I know - Jordan Binnington. But if anyone thinks this team can take the same path the Blues did, I don't know what to say.

There will be time to give Ingram a look/reward once things are officially Over. If it doesn't disrupt Milwaukee... because at that point, Milwaukee becomes more of a priority too.

The thing we still need to do is give Saros an extended opportunity. In the past we said we could never afford to... couldn't be sure, had to ride Rinne since he was the living legend, etc. Well in a few weeks it definitely won't matter. It won't be about wins and losses. It will be about player evaluations and next season. I think we need to really play Saros a lot and see if he can pull it out.

With expansion looming, the goalie market is nearing a point where if you ever did want to address the position, this might not be the worst time to do it. Lehner and Holtby will be UFA, Greiss, Khudobin. Penguins could move Matt Murray. There are some other teams that might be eyeballing the expansion draft, Demko, Georgiev... the goalie market might be about as good as it ever gets. It would be nice to really know where we stand. And the best way to do that is to really hand the ball to Saros the rest of the way and see what he's got.

 

[wadesworld]

Two thoughts:

1) If I ever hear Joey say "I know what I need to do to play my game at a high level" or whatever his exact words were, I'm going to blow a fuse. You haven't played at a high level yet Joey. You've been 70% of the player you could be since day 1 of your career.

2) I agree with the "let's play Saros the rest of the way." Flip the goalies and make Rinne the backup. Might as well evaluate Saros for the long term.

 

[TitansVolsPreds615]

And poile just gave him a 3 year extension so add that to the list of poile's mistakes?

He's getting like 1 mil per

 

[Predsanddead24]

1) If I ever hear Joey say "I know what I need to do to play my game at a high level" or whatever his exact words were, I'm going to blow a fuse. You haven't played at a high level yet Joey. You've been 70% of the player you could be since day 1 of your career.

Johansen may be the biggest waste of raw talent I've ever seen. His comments about how Fiala needs to learn how to contribute every game after his trade last year when Johansen has very rarely ever done that in his career really rubbed me the wrong way too. To then follow that up by having the worst season of his career is just icing on the cake.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

He's getting like 1 mil per

peanuts.

just asking if he is so awful, why we just extended him

 

[GeauxPreds1]

I agree with maybe selling off some players but you have to look at poiles draft history. He is incredible at finding talent at the defense but his inability to draft a really good forward is concerning. These last couple drafts can’t be determined yet because all we have is hope. We hope Tomasino, Tolvanen and Afanasyev turn out to be stars. But the fact that Poile hasn’t been able to find a forward star in the first 3 rounds in 10 years besides rads (debatable) really concerns me. I know it’s all a crap shot when drafting and other gms haven’t drafted well either but you would think with evaluating and watching these young players you could of hit on more than 1. For example Poile took the safe pick with jones but it was a position of strength already. Taking lindholm, monahan or Hovat would of filled a position of need. Taking fiala when Pasternak was still on the board hurts. I get it you never know how these kids would develop but it is his job to evaluate these players and right now he hasn’t evaluated right in a lot of drafts. So selling players for picks is all good but with Poiles history do you want him drafting. Just my 2 cents

 

[drwpreds]

Something else I was thinking about- 3 years ago at around this time the Preds were sputtering along with a very similar record to what we have right now.

And there was a ton of conversation about blowing everything up, tanking, rebuilding, etc.

Just like there is right now.

And yet, we almost won the freaking Cup that year.

Of course, that is definitely not happening again, but it is kind of crazy to just think about it- you never know what is going to happen when it comes to sports.

 

[drwpreds]

I have posted before about our play at Bridgestone, but I continue to find it fascinating, in a horrible way:

With last night’s loss, the Preds are now 5-12 in their last 17 games at home.

And a goal differential in those games of MINUS 24.

Preds have not scored more than 2 goals in a home game since December 23 (and even then it was only 3)

Have scored 3 or fewer goals in 8 straight home games.

Even worse, going all the way back to November 1, the Preds have scored more than 3 goals in a home game ONE time- (the 6-4 New Jersey win)>

Let that sink in a little- we have scored 3 or fewer goals in 15 of our last 16 home games. We have allowed 4 or more NINE times in those 16 games.

We have not had a blowout, dominating home win since October 29. Not a single one.

Those are some mind-boggling, horrific numbers. We haven’t just lost our home ice advantage- we are absolutely awful- the worst home team in the league.

No matter how many issues we have, that makes absolutely no sense. I posted this previously, but our road play has been for the most part perfectly acceptable. Had we just been an average, middle of the road home team, we would easily be in a playoff spot.

Insane.

 

[Byrddog]

I agree with maybe selling off some players but you have to look at poiles draft history. He is incredible at finding talent at the defense but his inability to draft a really good forward is concerning. These last couple drafts can’t be determined yet because all we have is hope. We hope Tomasino, Tolvanen and Afanasyev turn out to be stars. But the fact that Poile hasn’t been able to find a forward star in the first 3 rounds in 10 years besides rads (debatable) really concerns me. I know it’s all a crap shot when drafting and other gms haven’t drafted well either but you would think with evaluating and watching these young players you could of hit on more than 1. For example Poile took the safe pick with jones but it was a position of strength already. Taking lindholm, monahan or Hovat would of filled a position of need. Taking fiala when Pasternak was still on the board hurts. I get it you never know how these kids would develop but it is his job to evaluate these players and right now he hasn’t evaluated right in a lot of drafts. So selling players for picks is all good but with Poiles history do you want him drafting. Just my 2 cents

The two chances Poile has had to pick Top Offensive talent he chose Legwand and Jones. The remainder of the picks over the years outside of the top 5 he has not done much for sure but then again those players outside the top 5 are just as likely to bust than succeed. Picking out of the top 10 for the majority of his picks Poile has not had good odds of getting impact forwards. He has taken guys who are high risk for high reward in a number of cases and besides Radulov none of those forwards panned out. Defensemen are typically not drafted in the top 10 unless they are Ekblad, Hedman, Dahlin. Since 1946 there have been 14 defensemen picked number 1. Only 8 of then played over 700 games with three still actively playing. Point being a highly drafted D man has a much better chance long term. This fits into Poiles draft mentality. Forwards drafted in the first two rounds have just a 48.8% chance of playing 200 games in the league. Poile has relied on drafting D and signing forwards but the guys he got early on were nearing the end of their careers and the guys over the last 5 years he has brought in have not lived up to there ability.

The biggest problem now is that the underperformers are on long term contracts and will not bring near as much without retention. The UFA's are the most valuable assets he has at this point. The team is stuffed with centers with little positive trade value on the market and the team is short impactful wingers below the top line. A glut of 3rd 4th line guys and a defense that is a shell of what it was 4 years ago. The tending has all but collapsed with no clear plan. The pipeline is bare with only three forwards who have a legit chance to even make an attempt at the league. If one of the three make it to 200 games in the league it would be a win. A prospects need to be put into the system knowing that most will not make it. This can not be done without increasing the number of pick and young players. Somehow Poile needs to ad another 1st and a couple 2nds and a few prospect players to the organization. Heck not even Poile if he were gone today the next GM would need the same thing. This has been delayed and delayed and at this point putting it off will just make the problem worse.

22-19-7 is currently a 45.8% winning percentage. Thinking that this can somehow reverse to a 60% win percentage to get to a wild card spot is just not feasible. 3 games with Colorado, 2 each with the Blues, Stars and Wild throw in games with Caps, Canucks, Islanders, Jackets that's 13 games the Preds are just not close to playing as well as these teams. It is doubtful they take 4 of those 13. In the remaining 21 they would need 36 points to get to 95 points. The math at this point just does not work.

The loan remaining question is can the pieces needed to be sold off actually be moved.

 

[PredsV82]

My succinct observation is this season isnt any fun, and that's what sports are supposed to be.

We preds fans have had it reasonably good compared to a lot of sports franchises. Since graduating from the ranks of expansion status(back when that always meant at least a few years of suckage) we have really only had one team significantly underperform expectations for a whole season, and that wasnt even a whole season due to the lockout. Yes we have had many playoff disappointments, but for the most part the last 15 years have been a string of solid regular seasons. Enduring a whole season of disappointing games is a hell of a lot worse than losing a playoff series.

I guess what I'm trying to say is this sucks. Hard.

 

[TitansVolsPreds615]

My succinct observation is this season isnt any fun, and that's what sports are supposed to be.

We preds fans have had it reasonably good compared to a lot of sports franchises. Since graduating from the ranks of expansion status(back when that always meant at least a few years of suckage) we have really only had one team significantly underperform expectations for a whole season, and that wasnt even a whole season due to the lockout. Yes we have had many playoff disappointments, but for the most part the last 15 years have been a string of solid regular seasons. Enduring a whole season of disappointing games is a hell of a lot worse than losing a playoff series.

I guess what I'm trying to say is this sucks. Hard.

I really have little interest in going to the games for the first time in years. I still go because usually I can't even get face value for my season tickets so figure I might as well use them. I think I've seen 2 or 3 wins this season at home.

 

[Montross]

I really have little interest in going to the games for the first time in years. I still go because usually I can't even get face value for my season tickets so figure I might as well use them. I think I've seen 2 or 3 wins this season at home.

To that point:

 

[NoNecksCurse]

I really have little interest in going to the games for the first time in years. I still go because usually I can't even get face value for my season tickets so figure I might as well use them. I think I've seen 2 or 3 wins this season at home.

STH about to really be pissed when they see what tickets start going for on resale market and they are locked in past this year.

the die hard fans got screwed. hard.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

My succinct observation is this season isnt any fun, and that's what sports are supposed to be.

We preds fans have had it reasonably good compared to a lot of sports franchises. Since graduating from the ranks of expansion status(back when that always meant at least a few years of suckage) we have really only had one team significantly underperform expectations for a whole season, and that wasnt even a whole season due to the lockout. Yes we have had many playoff disappointments, but for the most part the last 15 years have been a string of solid regular seasons. Enduring a whole season of disappointing games is a hell of a lot worse than losing a playoff series.

I guess what I'm trying to say is this sucks. Hard.

Now just imagine we traded all of our players for prospects and magic beans like some are advocating. At least I'd get 3 hours of my life back more than a few days each season, not to mention all the time spent surfing the forums.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Two thoughts:

1) If I ever hear Joey say "I know what I need to do to play my game at a high level" or whatever his exact words were, I'm going to blow a fuse. You haven't played at a high level yet Joey. You've been 70% of the player you could be since day 1 of your career.

2) I agree with the "let's play Saros the rest of the way." Flip the goalies and make Rinne the backup. Might as well evaluate Saros for the long term.

He's like a slightly less skilled but even less motivated version of Jason Allison (I'm dating myself here). All the tools to be a truly exceptional player. I just don't understand.

 

[GoldOnGold]

Now just imagine we traded all of our players for prospects and magic beans like some are advocating. At least I'd get 3 hours of my life back more than a few days each season, not to mention all the time spent surfing the forums.

I agree completely.

Teams should absolutely never go into a rebuild unless they absolutely have to. The Preds have had one truly bad season in the past 16 years, and that was the lockout-shortened season. But once you go into a rebuild, you have no idea when, if ever, you're going to come out. Some teams have spent multiple decades being terrible. I hope I never have to experience that as a Preds fan.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I know the Preds came into this season with the oldest average age in the league, but I think one thing this roster is really lacking is a strong veteran leader, like a Justin Williams or Mike Fisher type. Anyone like that hitting free agency this summer?

 

[GoldOnGold]

I know the Preds came into this season with the oldest average age in the league, but I think one thing this roster is really lacking is a strong veteran leader, like a Justin Williams or Mike Fisher type. Anyone like that hitting free agency this summer?

Let's just import Jagr, he's still playing in the Czech league.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I know the Preds came into this season with the oldest average age in the league, but I think one thing this roster is really lacking is a strong veteran leader, like a Justin Williams or Mike Fisher type. Anyone like that hitting free agency this summer?

Not who's actually a good player, right?

Some veteran "leaders" (ymmv) I see on the list: Mikko Koivu, Wayne Simmonds!, Andy Greene, Jay Bouwmeester, Ryan Reaves, Joe Thornton, Kyle Clifford, Mark Borowiecki, Brian Boyle!...

I don't see any real salvation or hope there? So I mentioned Clifford as probably the guy I'd pursue. Somehow he's only 29. But he's really only a 4th liner. I don't imagine he wants to leave LA permanently though.

I think our current core players still have to do something. Can they go on some kind of retreat or trial by fire where they are suddenly reforged? Get thrown naked and afraid in the wilderness for the entire summer and emerge with new outlooks on what it takes to survive as a team and beat the odds? Have their plane crash in the Andes or on a mysterious island in the south pacific? It just seems to me that it might be too tall an order to think we can sign 1 guy - especially just an aging has-been or a 4th line banger - who is going to magically fix everything.

 

[adsfan]

22-19-7 is currently a 45.8% winning percentage. Thinking that this can somehow reverse to a 60% win percentage to get to a wild card spot is just not feasible. 3 games with Colorado, 2 each with the Blues, Stars and Wild throw in games with Caps, Canucks, Islanders, Jackets that's 13 games the Preds are just not close to playing as well as these teams. It is doubtful they take 4 of those 13. In the remaining 21 they would need 36 points to get to 95 points. The math at this point just does not work.

The loan remaining question is can the pieces needed to be sold off actually be moved.

Your math is BAD.

Fifty-one points out of a possible 96 (48 games x 2) is 53.1%, a +7.3% difference from what you posted.

You get 1 point in an overtime loss, not zero.

Nashville has a possible 68 points remaining to be captured. At 60%, the Preds would total 92.

Last season, Dallas had 93 and Colorado had 90 for Wild Card spots. It is possible to make it.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Your math is BAD.

Fifty-one points out of a possible 96 (48 games x 2) is 53.1%, a +7.3% difference from what you posted.

You get 1 point in an overtime loss, not zero.

Nashville has a possible 68 points remaining to be captured. At 60%, the Preds would total 92.

Last season, Dallas had 93 and Colorado had 90 for Wild Card spots. It is possible to make it.

You're arguing with the king of misrepresenting stats that while technically correct (sometimes) are essentially meaningless so I wouldn't expect much.

 

[adsfan]

You're arguing with the king of misrepresenting stats that while technically correct (sometimes) are essentially meaningless so I wouldn't expect much.

Except that Byrddog's math is for 44 points, not 51 points, so he isn't misrepresenting a fact, he is mathematically wrong.

Nashville could make a Wild Card spot if they up their game a little. Whether they will or not is anybody's guess.

 

[PredsV82]

I really have little interest in going to the games for the first time in years. I still go because usually I can't even get face value for my season tickets so figure I might as well use them. I think I've seen 2 or 3 wins this season at home.

I feel incredibly fortunate that the one game I got tickets for this year was the 4-0 win over the Wild.

 

[FossilFndr]

I'm with you V82, the one game I went to was beating the Caps 6 - 5 in mid October.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Duchene-Johansen-Granlund
Forsberg-Turris-Arvidsson
Grimaldi-Sissons (IR)-Smith
Trenin-Blackwell-Watson
Nick Bonino is absent from practice.

I kinda like these lines