Confirmed with Link: [NYR] Jimmy Vesey re-signs (2 years, $2.275M AAV)

[silverfish]

If you look at the comparable players for Vesey, here's who you get:

Jimmy Vesey, $2.275M AAV--27, 28 points at signing signed in 18
Tobias Rieder, $2.25M AAV--21, 37 points at signing, signed in 16
Joonas Donskoi, $1.9M AAV--36, 17 points at signing, signed in 17
Jordan Martinook, $1.8M AAV--24, 25 points at signing, signed in 17
Michael Ferland, $1.75M AAV--18, 25 points at signing, signed in 17
Riley Sheahan, $2.1M AAV--26, 35 points at signing, signed in 16
Oscar Lindberg, $1.7M AAV--28, 20 points at signing, signed in 17
Ryan Dzingel, $1.8M AAV--9 (partial), 32 points at signing, signed in 17

So, you can look at that list, and see his deal is right in line with the other deals. Account for the fact that deal sizes increase every year as the cap increases--Vesey's deal has a CH% of 2.86%, whereas Rieder's is at 3.05% because there's more cap space now, for example--and also that of the guys on the list, only Martinook, Ferland, and Dzingel both had arbitration rights and filed for arbitration which generally increases the value of the contract (Vesey filed). Vesey lines right up with his comparables. These are only a handful and you can go here and tweak whatever you want to find even more comparable players.

You can look at the list and say "most of those guys are way better" if you want. Maybe it's true. But that's largely subjective. RFA deals are mostly objective and they heavily weigh things like points. You're a 30-point guy, we're going to pay you like other 30-point guys at similar contract stages. It's straightforward.

So, if you didn't want to even re-sign Vesey because he's awful, that's fine. I would think that's wasting a potential asset, but okay. But this idea that he's making "X million dollars more than he should" isn't really grounded in reality. We can say, yeah, he only "deserves" $1M or something. But the reality is he "deserves" what the market establishes a player of his productivity is worth. And that's how he ends up at that number. It's not magic or just pulling numbers out of a hat. It's all based on the precedent for comparable players.

And just in case anyone missed the embedded link above and wants to check out other comps for Vesey (I just listed the guys >90% in similarity according to default data on Capfriendly), here, again, is the link: CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

+1 respect for the effort

 

[nyr2k2]

+1 respect for the effort

Thanks, amigo.

I don't even care if people don't like Vesey. I think he's a pretty mediocre player, who hopefully has another gear or two to hit. It just annoys me to no end when people come rolling in here to talk about how he is overpaid, with no actual data to support this claim, or to say his salary should be X amount of dollars because they have arrived at that based on nothing but their own opinion. It's a data-driven process, signing RFAs, and the data is soooo easy to find. Instead people just bitch. f***ing annoying.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Crazy that he makes more than Fast. Fast is better at every single thing.

Except you know, that pretty big thing called scoring goals. I heard those are important in hockey

 

[haveandare]

It all is. All of it. This 2.25 gets added to the long list of the Rangers spending too much money on bad hockey players.

Someone has to fill out the bottom line or 2. This deal is very fair for Vesey if those are his expectations.

 

[haveandare]

Jesus Christmas, you're right...

Almost broke my monitor

 

[Machinehead]

Except you know, that pretty big thing called scoring goals. I heard those are important in hockey

When you compare ice time, not really.

 

[silverfish]

Thanks, amigo.

I don't even care if people don't like Vesey. I think he's a pretty mediocre player, who hopefully has another gear or two to hit. It just annoys me to no end when people come rolling in here to talk about how he is overpaid, with no actual data to support this claim, or to say his salary should be X amount of dollars because they have arrived at that based on nothing but their own opinion. It's a data-driven process, signing RFAs, and the data is soooo easy to find. Instead people just *****. ****ing annoying.

Well, I think there's a distinction. I for one believe that Vesey is overpaid. I don't think he's overpaid in the sense of what the market dictates, as you laid out. If you recall I've been on the Vesey will get anywhere from $2 - $2.5m AAV for quite a while now (and was constantly ridiculed for saying that), but I believe he's overpaid for what he actually brings on the ice.

Admittedly, my method of evaluation is far different from the majority of this board, so I stay out of these types of things these days until I can't help myself. I'd have preferred moving on from Vesey rather than giving him this deal. Would have traded him at the draft for a late 2nd or early 3rd rounder or another teams sort of 'older prospect' that they're ready to give up on, if available. He was never in my plan to give a two-year 'show me' bridge deal. I think he's shown quite enough, and I think we know the type of player that he is. And I think for what he brings, we could've gone cheaper than his AAV. So when, at least for me personally, I say Vesey is overpaid, it's because IMO, the Rangers can get a cheaper player who brings more than he does.

Does any of this make sense?

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Thats because his dangles only work against lesser competition.

The guy can't pass

Has no vision

His shot is nothing special

The only thing he is above average at is finding those garbage goals around the net (nothing to scoff at, its a necessary skill)

His best chance at sticking in the NHL is to become a grinder. He is not a small guy, he should be using his body more.

Maybe he can be taught to PK.

He should never EVER be on the power play.

A bottom 6 PKer who can chip in 15-20 garbage goals a year can be a valuable player. The problem is that there is this delusion that he can be more than that, and it is just not true.

yeah, I can't really disagree. I think he needs to learn how to be a good 2 way grinder. needs to play more physical, more energetic, kill penalties, etc.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Vesey won't impede us from signing Panarin. Their contracts would only overlap for one year. If we were about to sign Panarin, someone would be traded for cap room. And we have the cap room right now, anyway.

 

[chosen]

He’s 25. This is him in his prime. He’s not getting better.

Like Kreider, 2 years ago.

 

[chosen]

Except you know, that pretty big thing called scoring goals. I heard those are important in hockey

Machinehead deems goal-scoring an afterthought. Sometimes.

 

[chosen]

When you compare ice time, not really.

Fast had more ES ice time than Vesey last season.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Fast had more ES ice time than Vesey last season.

5-on-5 P/60
Fast: 1.74
Vesey: 1.35

5-on-5 TOI
Fast: 894.48
Vesey: 979.57

 

[darko]

Thanks, amigo.

I don't even care if people don't like Vesey. I think he's a pretty mediocre player, who hopefully has another gear or two to hit. It just annoys me to no end when people come rolling in here to talk about how he is overpaid, with no actual data to support this claim, or to say his salary should be X amount of dollars because they have arrived at that based on nothing but their own opinion. It's a data-driven process, signing RFAs, and the data is soooo easy to find. Instead people just *****. ****ing annoying.

Some on here would say he's overpaid if he decided to play for free.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

If you look at the comparable players for Vesey, here's who you get:

Jimmy Vesey, $2.275M AAV--27, 28 points at signing signed in 18
Tobias Rieder, $2.25M AAV--21, 37 points at signing, signed in 16
Joonas Donskoi, $1.9M AAV--36, 17 points at signing, signed in 17
Jordan Martinook, $1.8M AAV--24, 25 points at signing, signed in 17
Michael Ferland, $1.75M AAV--18, 25 points at signing, signed in 17
Riley Sheahan, $2.1M AAV--26, 35 points at signing, signed in 16
Oscar Lindberg, $1.7M AAV--28, 20 points at signing, signed in 17
Ryan Dzingel, $1.8M AAV--9 (partial), 32 points at signing, signed in 17

So, you can look at that list, and see his deal is right in line with the other deals. Account for the fact that deal sizes increase every year as the cap increases--Vesey's deal has a CH% of 2.86%, whereas Rieder's is at 3.05% because there's more cap space now, for example--and also that of the guys on the list, only Martinook, Ferland, and Dzingel both had arbitration rights and filed for arbitration which generally increases the value of the contract (Vesey filed). Vesey lines right up with his comparables. These are only a handful and you can go here and tweak whatever you want to find even more comparable players.

You can look at the list and say "most of those guys are way better" if you want. Maybe it's true. But that's largely subjective. RFA deals are mostly objective and they heavily weigh things like points. You're a 30-point guy, we're going to pay you like other 30-point guys at similar contract stages. It's straightforward.

So, if you didn't want to even re-sign Vesey because he's awful, that's fine. I would think that's wasting a potential asset, but okay. But this idea that he's making "X million dollars more than he should" isn't really grounded in reality. We can say, yeah, he only "deserves" $1M or something. But the reality is he "deserves" what the market establishes a player of his productivity is worth. And that's how he ends up at that number. It's not magic or just pulling numbers out of a hat. It's all based on the precedent for comparable players.

And just in case anyone missed the embedded link above and wants to check out other comps for Vesey (I just listed the guys >90% in similarity according to default data on Capfriendly), here, again, is the link: CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Just quoting this because I think it needs to be noted again. Thanks for posting this. People will still say he's overpaid even though its the going rate.

 

[Off Sides]

If you look at the comparable players for Vesey, here's who you get:

Jimmy Vesey, $2.275M AAV--27, 28 points at signing signed in 18
Tobias Rieder, $2.25M AAV--21, 37 points at signing, signed in 16
Joonas Donskoi, $1.9M AAV--36, 17 points at signing, signed in 17
Jordan Martinook, $1.8M AAV--24, 25 points at signing, signed in 17
Michael Ferland, $1.75M AAV--18, 25 points at signing, signed in 17
Riley Sheahan, $2.1M AAV--26, 35 points at signing, signed in 16
Oscar Lindberg, $1.7M AAV--28, 20 points at signing, signed in 17
Ryan Dzingel, $1.8M AAV--9 (partial), 32 points at signing, signed in 17

So, you can look at that list, and see his deal is right in line with the other deals. Account for the fact that deal sizes increase every year as the cap increases--Vesey's deal has a CH% of 2.86%, whereas Rieder's is at 3.05% because there's more cap space now, for example--and also that of the guys on the list, only Martinook, Ferland, and Dzingel both had arbitration rights and filed for arbitration which generally increases the value of the contract (Vesey filed). Vesey lines right up with his comparables. These are only a handful and you can go here and tweak whatever you want to find even more comparable players.

You can look at the list and say "most of those guys are way better" if you want. Maybe it's true. But that's largely subjective. RFA deals are mostly objective and they heavily weigh things like points. You're a 30-point guy, we're going to pay you like other 30-point guys at similar contract stages. It's straightforward.

So, if you didn't want to even re-sign Vesey because he's awful, that's fine. I would think that's wasting a potential asset, but okay. But this idea that he's making "X million dollars more than he should" isn't really grounded in reality. We can say, yeah, he only "deserves" $1M or something. But the reality is he "deserves" what the market establishes a player of his productivity is worth. And that's how he ends up at that number. It's not magic or just pulling numbers out of a hat. It's all based on the precedent for comparable players.

And just in case anyone missed the embedded link above and wants to check out other comps for Vesey (I just listed the guys >90% in similarity according to default data on Capfriendly), here, again, is the link: CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thanks for the leg work, and great post, I agree completely.

While I too stated this was neither an overpayment or underpayment, it still leaves me wondering why the two year term.

I'll always find it odd when players are signed to a bridge to UFA, Vegas did so with a couple players last off-season, I felt they probably were doing so in hopes the players would figure out they liked it there and may re-sign.

Rangers going that route with Vesey and Name, I'm just not sure I get it, there does not seem to be a real upside to doing so other than they could rent them out sooner, but for what return? Or they just wanted to clear cap space for the season where those cap hit will no longer be on the books.

I do not always agree with what the Rangers do, but I almost always am at least able to come up with some reasoning as to why they do the stuff they do even if I disagree.

Yet in those two cases I'm feeling that I must be missing something. I doubt they did so without some reasoning, but it likely does not make sense for expansion, nor for the next CBA if either side opts out, as both would happen after those contracts expire.

It's possible this makes it easier for them to make some trades, but even there I'm not sure I see them being able to get a return that makes more sense just because they signed 2 two year contracts or see them being more confident to make a trade just because they have those two on those deals.

I have a thing where I look at stuff sometimes several years in advance, and it kind of grinds my gear when I can't figure it out. I feel both Name and Vesey would be worth more to the Rangers and on the trade front if they were on a one year deal leaving them with a RFA year, or if they were signed a little bit longer, to say 3 year deals where they had some term left and could possibly be used to expose in expansion should the draft take place before/during that 3rd year.

I don't know, maybe I am reading the situation wrong or am misunderstanding some part of the CBA concerning arbitration or am missing the foresight to see how those terms are advantageous. (I guessing the response would be they are just two year bridge deals, who cares, they are "prove it" contracts, but what are they proving? I guess I think both are kind of in the category of "they are what they are")

 

[NYR Viper]

People need to look at these contracts as if they are % of the cap. Not the real $$. Vesey isn't overpaid. Just look a the UFA's signed for this past off-season

 

[Inferno]

Vesey has so many projectible things to his game...I feel like he's always going to get a contract by a team that thinks he's just on the verge of turning a corner.
Size, speed, hands around the net, not soft, unafraid. And yet his decision making is.among the worst on an nhler I can rememeber and his passing is simply nonexistent. To be fair though I felt like Hayes was an idiot his first 2 seasons and last year he definitely turned a corner and played very very well. Av did a lot of bad to this organization but developing Hayes was not one of them

 

[Leetch3]

regardless of cap hit, my biggest question is where does he even fit? same goes for spooner. they are nice insurance in case anderson & chytil need time in hartford. but those 2 will more than likely be in ny so that doesn't leave room for vesey or spooner in the top 9. nice for depth, but can we really expect vesey to develop much if he's on the 4th line?

well i guess this also depends on if they play the 2 kids at center or wing this year

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

People need to look at these contracts as if they are % of the cap. Not the real $$. Vesey isn't overpaid. Just look a the UFA's signed for this past off-season

CH% >>>>>> AAV

Capfriendly has this documented for each contract. Just look for the "CH%"

 

[Doctyl]

Like Kreider, 2 years ago.

Kreider was good 2 years ago.

Next.

 

[nyr2k2]

Kreider was good 2 years ago.

Next.

Look at this guy here, kicking ass and taking names. Everyone line up to be told off by Dactyl!

I'm glad I clicked the little text at the bottom of the screen to see what was really going on in here.

 

[Doctyl]

Someone has to fill out the bottom line or 2. This deal is very fair for Vesey if those are his expectations.

You don’t pay 2M a year for replacement level players.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

You don’t pay 2M a year for replacement level players.

Anyone on the bottom 2 lines are replacement level players. You really hate poor jimmy don't you?

 

[Doctyl]

If you look at the comparable players for Vesey, here's who you get:

Jimmy Vesey, $2.275M AAV--27, 28 points at signing signed in 18
Tobias Rieder, $2.25M AAV--21, 37 points at signing, signed in 16
Joonas Donskoi, $1.9M AAV--36, 17 points at signing, signed in 17
Jordan Martinook, $1.8M AAV--24, 25 points at signing, signed in 17
Michael Ferland, $1.75M AAV--18, 25 points at signing, signed in 17
Riley Sheahan, $2.1M AAV--26, 35 points at signing, signed in 16
Oscar Lindberg, $1.7M AAV--28, 20 points at signing, signed in 17
Ryan Dzingel, $1.8M AAV--9 (partial), 32 points at signing, signed in 17

So, you can look at that list, and see his deal is right in line with the other deals. Account for the fact that deal sizes increase every year as the cap increases--Vesey's deal has a CH% of 2.86%, whereas Rieder's is at 3.05% because there's more cap space now, for example--and also that of the guys on the list, only Martinook, Ferland, and Dzingel both had arbitration rights and filed for arbitration which generally increases the value of the contract (Vesey filed). Vesey lines right up with his comparables. These are only a handful and you can go here and tweak whatever you want to find even more comparable players.

You can look at the list and say "most of those guys are way better" if you want. Maybe it's true. But that's largely subjective. RFA deals are mostly objective and they heavily weigh things like points. You're a 30-point guy, we're going to pay you like other 30-point guys at similar contract stages. It's straightforward.

So, if you didn't want to even re-sign Vesey because he's awful, that's fine. I would think that's wasting a potential asset, but okay. But this idea that he's making "X million dollars more than he should" isn't really grounded in reality. We can say, yeah, he only "deserves" $1M or something. But the reality is he "deserves" what the market establishes a player of his productivity is worth. And that's how he ends up at that number. It's not magic or just pulling numbers out of a hat. It's all based on the precedent for comparable players.

And just in case anyone missed the embedded link above and wants to check out other comps for Vesey (I just listed the guys >90% in similarity according to default data on Capfriendly), here, again, is the link: CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

If you just take total points into account, then sure Vesey is similar to these others. Also I agree, you have to look at CH% not just raw AAV.

Normalizing these numbers to CH% and Total Points/60 to calculate P60/CH% you get this:

Lindberg	.749
Ferland	.734
Dzingel	.688
Vesey	.517
Martinook	.517
Rieder	.511
Donskoi	.465
Sheahan	.419

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So if you value point scoring rates and normalize to percentage of cap hit, Vesey is about around the norm on this list.



Disclaimer: I am not a data analytics person at all and have basically no education in statistics, so I am sure I am doing something wrong from here on. However, here is my attempt to quantify a player normalized to cap hit%. If I make a mistake, I would appreciate if someone would help correct this.


If you want to look at other factors such as possession to get a more complete picture of the players then the list looks quite different. Taking relative CF% and normalizing by CH%:

Rieder	1.433
Donskoi	1.215
Martinook	.617
Dzingel	.454
Lindberg	-.220
Sheahan	-.244
Vesey	-.385
Ferland	-.502

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In an attempt to combine both of these to incorporate possession and production normalized to cap hit, I added these two together which is probably oversimplifying this whole thing:

Rieder	1.944
Donskoi	1.681
Dzingel	1.142
Martinook	1.133
Lindberg	.529
Ferland	.232
Sheahan	.175
Vesey	.133

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I am guessing that relCF% was the wrong number to use for this, but I picked something that tried to eliminate the teammate difference. On the off chance that I did not make a mistake, Vesey looks like the worst on this list of comparables.

If anyone knows a better way to quantitatively evaluate contracts or has any ideas on how to improve this, it is actually kind of fun and I would like to look more into it.