Speculation: Now what do we do?

[DFC]

I get what you're saying and I absolutely agree about his importance to the team, but keeping Bishop means losing a good chunk of our core just as they're entering their prime years. Without the cap going up Yzerman would have to pull off a miraculous series of moves to clear up the cap space to keep all our key players. We haven't been able to score points as it is and losing one or two of our best scorers is not going to help matters (and that's not even mentioning the defensive impact of losing guys like Palat and Killorn.)

Who do we have in the organization that can fill Palat's or Killorn's shoes? Perhaps Point could offensively, but he's not the defensive player that either of those forwards is. Gusev again offensively, but he's not going to come over unless we're going to pay him and with Bishop we can't afford to do so. Ernie's not exactly blowing the doors off the AHL. And any of those guys is going to be at least a couple years away from producing at a high level in the NHL, by which point Bishop could well be declining.

I absolutely hate to lose Bishop but ultimately we have better and more ready organizational depth at goal than we do at top six forward right now. The Pens are in the Finals right now and the Rangers and Canadiens are watching from their couches - which team should we emulate?

I'm way more concerned about who would fill Bishop's shoes.

Again, if Stamkos walks, I don't see how we couldn't make it work with Bishop. We're talking about a raise that's likely to be 1.5m max above his current contract. Meanwhile, we have the Stamkos, Filppula, Callahan, and Carle contracts. Coburn's contract is moveable. There are a lot of better places to find extra $ than the contract of our MVP.

I still think we have to make Vasy pry the job from Bishop, and he just hasn't done that yet. We look like garbage in front of Vasy the same way we looked like garbage in front of Lindback, and, IMO, it has a lot to do with their similar styles. Vasy can make great saves, but he's years away from managing the game the way Bishop does.

If we can keep both guys, I'm all for it, and then, over time, Vasy will take the job. But in the here and now? I feel like we're a cup contender with Bishop, but not with Vasy.

 

[tjs*]

I'm way more concerned about who would fill Bishop's shoes.

Again, if Stamkos walks, I don't see how we couldn't make it work with Bishop. We're talking about a raise that's likely to be 1.5m max above his current contract. Meanwhile, we have the Stamkos, Filppula, Callahan, and Carle contracts. Coburn's contract is moveable. There are a lot of better places to find extra $ than the contract of our MVP.

I still think we have to make Vasy pry the job from Bishop, and he just hasn't done that yet. We look like garbage in front of Vasy the same way we looked like garbage in front of Lindback, and, IMO, it has a lot to do with their similar styles. Vasy can make great saves, but he's years away from managing the game the way Bishop does.

If we can keep both guys, I'm all for it, and then, over time, Vasy will take the job. But in the here and now? I feel like we're a cup contender with Bishop, but not with Vasy.

I ran the numbers a while back and Stamkos, Carle (buyout) and Filppula (trade), along with Gagner's retention coming off the books were required to resign Kucherov, Hedman, Johnson, and Palat. That was assuming favorable deals for those players, and it was before we knew that Filppula will require protection in the expansion draft which makes him essentially immovable and that we will therefore almost certainly have to buy him out. So we'll have to move somebody else just to resign those four guys, and we haven't even gotten to Drouin, Killorn, or Bishop yet - not to mention the rest of the team. If we move Killorn and Garrison and replace them with entry level players we can hopefully cover Drouin, but Bishop's still unaccounted for and we've already lost two important players in Killorn and Garrison.

So who's left to move to make space for Bishop? Callahan would be ideal but unfortunately he's immovable. Coburn's really our only option at this point. If Bishop does us a solid and takes less than a $1.5M raise then replacing Coburn with an entry level player could just cover Bish's raise and Filppula's buyout. We still haven't dealt with any bottom six forwards requiring a raise, so Boyle and Condra probably have to go (Boyle being a major loss to our depth scoring and physicality).

So let's recap: we've replaced Stamkos, Carle, Filppula, Killorn, Garrison, Coburn, Boyle, and Condra with entry level players. Some of those guys we won't really miss, but others are significant losses. Namestnikov is our 2C which is a risk, and I have no idea who will center our third and fourth lines. Our team is significantly weaker than it has been the past couple of seasons and we have no room to get better.

Now there are some other things Yzerman might be able to do. Maybe he can package Carle or Filppula with Killorn to a team with the cap space to absorb Carle's buyout - that would give us some extra cap space. It's less likely that he could package somebody with Garrison since a buyer for Garrison would have to be a contender which probably won't have the cap space to absorb a buyout. Maybe by some miracle we find a taker for Callahan that Cally would allow a trade to - we'd have to retain but we'd still save money there. But regardless of how you look at it resigning Bishop puts us in serious cap hell.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I'm way more concerned about who would fill Bishop's shoes.

Again, if Stamkos walks, I don't see how we couldn't make it work with Bishop. We're talking about a raise that's likely to be 1.5m max above his current contract. Meanwhile, we have the Stamkos, Filppula, Callahan, and Carle contracts. Coburn's contract is moveable. There are a lot of better places to find extra $ than the contract of our MVP.

I still think we have to make Vasy pry the job from Bishop, and he just hasn't done that yet. We look like garbage in front of Vasy the same way we looked like garbage in front of Lindback, and, IMO, it has a lot to do with their similar styles. Vasy can make great saves, but he's years away from managing the game the way Bishop does.

If we can keep both guys, I'm all for it, and then, over time, Vasy will take the job. But in the here and now? I feel like we're a cup contender with Bishop, but not with Vasy.

Palat 6 Johnson 6 Kucherov 7 =19
Killorn 4.5 Namestnikov 2 Drouin 4.5 =11
Hedman 8 Stralman 4.5 =12.5
Garrison 4.6 Coburn 3.7 =8.3

Right there with just our top 6 and top 4 we're at 50.8 so we have less than 25mil to sign 12-13 players, that's roughly 2mil a player.

Brown 1.5 Filpulla 5 Callahan 5.8 = 12.3
Paquette 1 Boyle 2 Condra 1.2 = 4.2
Koekkoek 1 Sustr 2 = 3

So that's 19.5 with both goalies and some depth players.

Bishop 7 Vasilevskiy 2 = 9

That puts us over by about 4mil. This does not include Carle's buyout and was a rough estimate of contracts. So say 7 million over. Trade Filppula gives us 5 still 2 over and we need to pay a 3C. Trade Garrison we have 2.6 to sign a 3C and 3D. Callahan is untradeable still so we can't move out that 5.8 which would fix everything. Letting Bishop go while still moving Filppula and possibly Garrison gives us a ton of cap flexibility to sign everyone and get competent replacements for traded players. We can sign a UFA backup for cheap too.

Just can't see how we can afford Bishop and the top 6 and top 4 without having all ELC players filling the rest of the spots.

 

[tjs*]

Palat 6 Johnson 6 Kucherov 7 =19
Killorn 4.5 Namestnikov 2 Drouin 4.5 =11
Hedman 8 Stralman 4.5 =12.5
Garrison 4.6 Coburn 3.7 =8.3

Right there with just our top 6 and top 4 we're at 50.8 so we have less than 25mil to sign 12-13 players, that's roughly 2mil a player.

Brown 1.5 Filpulla 5 Callahan 5.8 = 12.3
Paquette 1 Boyle 2 Condra 1.2 = 4.2
Koekkoek 1 Sustr 2 = 3

So that's 19.5 with both goalies and some depth players.

Bishop 7 Vasilevskiy 2 = 9

That puts us over by about 4mil. This does not include Carle's buyout and was a rough estimate of contracts. So say 7 million over. Trade Filppula gives us 5 still 2 over and we need to pay a 3C. Trade Garrison we have 2.6 to sign a 3C and 3D. Callahan is untradeable still so we can't move out that 5.8 which would fix everything. Letting Bishop go while still moving Filppula and possibly Garrison gives us a ton of cap flexibility to sign everyone and get competent replacements for traded players. We can sign a UFA backup for cheap too.

Just can't see how we can afford Bishop and the top 6 and top 4 without having all ELC players filling the rest of the spots.

Agree, and I think even this estimate is optimistic in a couple ways. With Filppula requiring protection at the expansion draft I don't see any team taking him unless it's as part of a package with Killorn, so there's a good chance we'll have to buy him out. And if Drouin has a big season I don't see anything less than $5M for him and he'd probably be looking for another $1-2M raise in a year. So Bishop and Garrison unfortunately have to go.

 

[DFC]

I ran the numbers a while back and Stamkos, Carle (buyout) and Filppula (trade), along with Gagner's retention coming off the books were required to resign Kucherov, Hedman, Johnson, and Palat. That was assuming favorable deals for those players, and it was before we knew that Filppula will require protection in the expansion draft which makes him essentially immovable and that we will therefore almost certainly have to buy him out. So we'll have to move somebody else just to resign those four guys, and we haven't even gotten to Drouin, Killorn, or Bishop yet - not to mention the rest of the team. If we move Killorn and Garrison and replace them with entry level players we can hopefully cover Drouin, but Bishop's still unaccounted for and we've already lost two important players in Killorn and Garrison.

So who's left to move to make space for Bishop? Callahan would be ideal but unfortunately he's immovable. Coburn's really our only option at this point. If Bishop does us a solid and takes less than a $1.5M raise then replacing Coburn with an entry level player could just cover Bish's raise and Filppula's buyout. We still haven't dealt with any bottom six forwards requiring a raise, so Boyle and Condra probably have to go (Boyle being a major loss to our depth scoring and physicality).

So let's recap: we've replaced Stamkos, Carle, Filppula, Killorn, Garrison, Coburn, Boyle, and Condra with entry level players. Some of those guys we won't really miss, but others are significant losses. Namestnikov is our 2C which is a risk, and I have no idea who will center our third and fourth lines. Our team is significantly weaker than it has been the past couple of seasons and we have no room to get better.

Now there are some other things Yzerman might be able to do. Maybe he can package Carle or Filppula with Killorn to a team with the cap space to absorb Carle's buyout - that would give us some extra cap space. It's less likely that he could package somebody with Garrison since a buyer for Garrison would have to be a contender which probably won't have the cap space to absorb a buyout. Maybe by some miracle we find a taker for Callahan that Cally would allow a trade to - we'd have to retain but we'd still save money there. But regardless of how you look at it resigning Bishop puts us in serious cap hell.

I don't see how one $7m contract is the difference between sinking or swimming. If we have to lose a guy, I think we should lose a guy other than Bishop. If that's Killorn, fine. If that's Palat, then I think I'd be for swallowing that too. But I sincerely doubt one contract is going to cost us the entire team.

Pretty much any player other than Hedman or Kucherov (maybe Drouin) is unlikely to be as important to our success as Bishop.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I ran the numbers a while back and Stamkos, Carle (buyout) and Filppula (trade), along with Gagner's retention coming off the books were required to resign Kucherov, Hedman, Johnson, and Palat. That was assuming favorable deals for those players, and it was before we knew that Filppula will require protection in the expansion draft which makes him essentially immovable and that we will therefore almost certainly have to buy him out. So we'll have to move somebody else just to resign those four guys, and we haven't even gotten to Drouin, Killorn, or Bishop yet - not to mention the rest of the team. If we move Killorn and Garrison and replace them with entry level players we can hopefully cover Drouin, but Bishop's still unaccounted for and we've already lost two important players in Killorn and Garrison.

So who's left to move to make space for Bishop? Callahan would be ideal but unfortunately he's immovable. Coburn's really our only option at this point. If Bishop does us a solid and takes less than a $1.5M raise then replacing Coburn with an entry level player could just cover Bish's raise and Filppula's buyout. We still haven't dealt with any bottom six forwards requiring a raise, so Boyle and Condra probably have to go (Boyle being a major loss to our depth scoring and physicality).

So let's recap: we've replaced Stamkos, Carle, Filppula, Killorn, Garrison, Coburn, Boyle, and Condra with entry level players. Some of those guys we won't really miss, but others are significant losses. Namestnikov is our 2C which is a risk, and I have no idea who will center our third and fourth lines. Our team is significantly weaker than it has been the past couple of seasons and we have no room to get better.

Now there are some other things Yzerman might be able to do. Maybe he can package Carle or Filppula with Killorn to a team with the cap space to absorb Carle's buyout - that would give us some extra cap space. It's less likely that he could package somebody with Garrison since a buyer for Garrison would have to be a contender which probably won't have the cap space to absorb a buyout. Maybe by some miracle we find a taker for Callahan that Cally would allow a trade to - we'd have to retain but we'd still save money there. But regardless of how you look at it resigning Bishop puts us in serious cap hell.

Why do we have to buy Filpulla out? You're allowed to ask a player to waive they're NMC. Still not certain how Filpulla's contract is because if his NMC ends and becomes a NTC in 17-18, some people think they don't have to be protected. We can always trade Filpulla after the season and prior to the draft. I don't think Filpulla will mind waiving going into the final year of his deal here when he knows he won't be back and has already been pushed down the lineup.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I don't see how one $7m contract is the difference between sinking or swimming. If we have to lose a guy, I think we should lose a guy other than Bishop. If that's Killorn, fine. If that's Palat, then I think I'd be for swallowing that too. But I sincerely doubt one contract is going to cost us the entire team.

Pretty much any player other than Hedman or Kucherov (maybe Drouin) is unlikely to be as important to our success as Bishop.

Bishop will be turning 31 the year his new 7mil x year deal kicks in. I'd rather go with the 23 year old in net and keep the under younger top 6 wingers.

 

[tjs*]

Oh yeah, and Hose's cap estimate is actually higher than it now looks like it will be by about $3.5M, so you can add that to the analysis. Even with Bishop gone we aren't going to have a ton of cap space.

 

[tjs*]

Why do we have to buy Filpulla out? You're allowed to ask a player to waive they're NMC. Still not certain how Filpulla's contract is because if his NMC ends and becomes a NTC in 17-18, some people think they don't have to be protected. We can always trade Filpulla after the season and prior to the draft. I don't think Filpulla will mind waiving going into the final year of his deal here when he knows he won't be back and has already been pushed down the lineup.

Nobody seems to agree on whether or not his contract actually becomes a NTC in 17-18. You're right though that he might be willing to waive figuring that he's unlikely to be selected anyway. It's still going to be difficult to find a taker for him however given his drastic offensive decline.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Nobody seems to agree on whether or not his contract actually becomes a NTC in 17-18. You're right though that he might be willing to waive figuring that he's unlikely to be selected anyway. It's still going to be difficult to find a taker for him however given his drastic offensive decline.

He just needs to stop playing with bums like Brown and Paquette and he can score 50 again. He just needs more time with top 6 players and on the 1st PP and he'll easily be worth his contract.

 

[tjs*]

He just needs to stop playing with bums like Brown and Paquette and he can score 50 again. He just needs more time with top 6 players and on the 1st PP and he'll easily be worth his contract.

Game seven alone he passed up two beautiful breakaway opportunities to pull up and pass to somebody who was in no position to score. It's not the other players - the guy won't shoot the puck.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Game seven alone he passed up two beautiful breakaway opportunities to pull up and pass to somebody who was in no position to score. It's not the other players - the guy won't shoot the puck.

You completely missed the joke

 

[tjs*]

You completely missed the joke

Haha I suppose I did. I thought that sounded like somebody else on this board.

 

[MattM92]

Bishop is the one we have the closest possible replacement for. We have no one with Stamkos' skill set. Nobody is nearly as good as Johnson or Kucherov or Drouin right now. Vasilevskiy is already closer to Bishop than any of our other prospects are to the rest of our core. That's why he is likely the guy we lose.

 

[HoseEmDown]

So let's talk expansion draft since we know a bit more of what it entails. The only current player we know for sure who has to be protected is Callahan, Filppula is uncertain as the details of what his contract actually is are hard to find. So with that here's who'd I'd protect in a 7 3 1 format.

Callahan
Kucherov
Johnson
Palat
Drouin
Killorn
Namestnikov

Hedman
Stralman
Koekkoek

Vasilevskiy

If Filppula has to be protected in ask him to waive if he says no I put up whoever has a worse season between Killorn and Namestnikov. So players I think Vegas would covet in order most likely picked.

Sustr
Garrison
Gudlevskis
Blujus
Brown

It would be best for us if they take Garrison or Filpulla if he's exposed as it would free us from a high caphit, we lose a valuable asset we could've probably traded. We would be best to convince them to take Garrison by offering a pick so we don't lose Sustr who's younger and RD. They may also prefer Gudlevskis or Blujus who are both young and should be NHL ready for the 17-18 season.

 

[TampaJay]

Trading for Bennett would be a genius move but I wouldn't do it at the expense of Vasilevskiy. Problem is that Bishop will be 30 soon and isn't going to be competing for at this current level much longer if he is like everyone else. Whereas with Vasilevskiy we can count on him to play at his level for another 10 years and get better in the process. I would ONLY consider doing this post July 1st and after Stamkos has already signed a deal with someone else.

There are great arguments for keeping Vasi and trading Bishop, but my point in suggesting Vasi for Bennett is that there is no real choice. Bishop is not going to waive his NMC. It is either trade Vasi for a 2C or go with Vlady. We have to accept the reality of the situation.

 

[Todd1a]

So let's talk expansion draft since we know a bit more of what it entails. The only current player we know for sure who has to be protected is Callahan, Filppula is uncertain as the details of what his contract actually is are hard to find. So with that here's who'd I'd protect in a 7 3 1 format.

Callahan
Kucherov
Johnson
Palat
Drouin
Killorn
Namestnikov

Hedman
Stralman
Koekkoek

Vasilevskiy

If Filppula has to be protected in ask him to waive if he says no I put up whoever has a worse season between Killorn and Namestnikov. So players I think Vegas would covet in order most likely picked.

Sustr
Garrison
Gudlevskis
Blujus
Brown

It would be best for us if they take Garrison or Filpulla if he's exposed as it would free us from a high caphit, we lose a valuable asset we could've probably traded. We would be best to convince them to take Garrison by offering a pick so we don't lose Sustr who's younger and RD. They may also prefer Gudlevskis or Blujus who are both young and should be NHL ready for the 17-18 season.

Thought Callahan does not count ?

 

[tjs*]

There are great arguments for keeping Vasi and trading Bishop, but my point in suggesting Vasi for Bennett is that there is no real choice. Bishop is not going to waive his NMC. It is either trade Vasi for a 2C or go with Vlady. We have to accept the reality of the situation.

That's a false dichotomy - we have several players who could be moved to bring back a center. Palat or Killorn could be traded (straight up or as part of a package if necessary) either for a 2C or to free up the cap space to sign someone like Nielsen in free agency (assuming he's looking to win a Cup more than he is to break the bank, of course.) Garrison is unlikely to bring back an established 2C but he might fetch a young player with some potential if there's a team in enough need of a 2/3D (probably somebody around Vladdy's level - not a guaranteed upgrade so much as another chance at finding our 2C on the cheap should Vladdy not work out.) DeAngelo is another option who a lot of teams would be interested in.

Finally you have to realize that signing Bishop puts us in absolute cap hell. We can't afford all the core players we have now; what do you think will happen when it comes time to pay Bennett? Letting Bishop walk (if he won't agree to a trade) and getting our 2C some other way will at least give us the breathing room to hang onto him.

 

[RDTBay4]

So does Vasilevskiy get a ring? Does Bishop's leg get one?

 

[RDTBay4]

What a joke.

 

[RDTBay4]

Lol Crosby

 

[Todd1a]

Boy callahans contract does not look bad compared to Dustin brown with 6 years left

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

Boy callahans contract does not look bad compared to Dustin brown with 6 years left

might invest in new glasses

look pretty much same to me with one having a shot at showing up in playoffs and is not our guy

 

[LTIR Trickery]

That's a false dichotomy - we have several players who could be moved to bring back a center. Palat or Killorn could be traded (straight up or as part of a package if necessary) either for a 2C or to free up the cap space to sign someone like Nielsen in free agency (assuming he's looking to win a Cup more than he is to break the bank, of course.) Garrison is unlikely to bring back an established 2C but he might fetch a young player with some potential if there's a team in enough need of a 2/3D (probably somebody around Vladdy's level - not a guaranteed upgrade so much as another chance at finding our 2C on the cheap should Vladdy not work out.) DeAngelo is another option who a lot of teams would be interested in.

Finally you have to realize that signing Bishop puts us in absolute cap hell. We can't afford all the core players we have now; what do you think will happen when it comes time to pay Bennett? Letting Bishop walk (if he won't agree to a trade) and getting our 2C some other way will at least give us the breathing room to hang onto him.

I don't get why trading Killorn or Palat for space for a marginal upgrade in Nielsen helps us, especially when he'll end up having to take a reduced role compared to his time on Long Island.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Thought Callahan does not count ?

Why would you think that? He's got a full NMC the next 2 years, we're stuck with him awhile.