Player Discussion: Nikolaj "Probert" Ehlers Pt. 2

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,075
33,132
Ehlers major issue is that he doesn't know what to do with the puck when he has it - he'll gain the zone but nothing much happens once they are in the zone.
He doesn't have good instincts with line mates - he likes to hang on too long - in other words, he's not much of a playmaker.
His skating is top shelf, his edges are even better - that's his strength. His shooting is good but he doesn't score many goals around the net or by beating defenders in tight. Give him room and he's killer - crowd him and he tends to skate into a corner.

Skill wise, I see Connor as the likely the most "talented" player on the team - with room to fine tune the D side of this game which is a shortfall. He also needs to be more effective off the rush - but he has the skills to learn that part of the game.

Regardless, I'd be very surprised if the org were to move Connor - even if they had to move one of their top 4 wingers

I wish they would move Ehlers onto the 1st line and Connor to the 2nd so the narrative would hopefully stop on how much better Ehlers would be on the 1st line.
Regardless of their stylistic differences, the results that Ehlers achieves have been better than Connor if you consider actual offensive production (goals and points per 60 minutes) or shot metrics (Corsi, expected goals).

Whenever Ehlers has been on the top line they have performed much better than with Connor in terms of shot metrics, goal differentials and penalty differentials.

I'll go with the player that generates better results.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,075
33,132
My only real guess for why Mau used Ehlers and Connor the way he did last year is that he thought Ehlers was better able to handle the more difficult assignments while Connor needed Scheif to carry him. Not much of a theory, but the best I can come up with. The other choices are a) he punishes Ehlers for Laine's shortcomings and b) Mau is completely incompetent.

Some of Maurice's player usage decisions last year went off the deep end.
It would be logical. Ehlers is a better driver of play than Connor in terms of zone exits, transition and zone entry. His problem is that he isn't as good at retrieving pucks on the forecheck. Neither are Laine or Little. He is also not so great with puck possession along the boards on the cycle. As a result, unless they score off the rush or open-ice play, ELL end up defending way too much because they aren't good at puck possession or retrieval. At least, that's my "eye test" explanation for their metrics.
 

Board Bard

Dane-O-Mite
Jun 7, 2014
7,890
5,059
And yet Ehlers seems to regularly find himself in Maurice's doghouse. At least, that's my perception. Honestly, if there is a move afoot to trade Ehlers, it's because Maurice is pushing for it, not because of salary cap issues. That's my conspiracy theory for the day, anyway. :nod:

Maurice would get most of the blame. If he'd used Ehlers properly, Chevy would consider Ehlers untouchable and there wouldn't be any rumours (or trades) about him now. It would be the blind leading the blind.
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,527
29,402
Ehlers major issue is that he doesn't know what to do with the puck when he has it - he'll gain the zone but nothing much happens once they are in the zone.
He doesn't have good instincts with line mates - he likes to hang on too long - in other words, he's not much of a playmaker.
His skating is top shelf, his edges are even better - that's his strength. His shooting is good but he doesn't score many goals around the net or by beating defenders in tight. Give him room and he's killer - crowd him and he tends to skate into a corner.

Skill wise, I see Connor as the likely the most "talented" player on the team - with room to fine tune the D side of this game which is a shortfall. He also needs to be more effective off the rush - but he has the skills to learn that part of the game.

Regardless, I'd be very surprised if the org were to move Connor - even if they had to move one of their top 4 wingers

I wish they would move Ehlers onto the 1st line and Connor to the 2nd so the narrative would hopefully stop on how much better Ehlers would be on the 1st line.

I disagree. Ehlers speed often leaves him waiting for linemates to catch up. I think you are seeing the effect of that. He does tend to hang on too long, but he is getting much better at that. His linemates need to learn to take advanage of his skill and go to the spots he needs them to be in too. It works both ways.

When he was with Scheif and Wheeler he was much better in tight. Still no Connor. That's where KC shines.

Connor mast talented? I don't get that at all. No idea how you can make that statement unless 'talent' is composed entirely of reactions and hands in tight.

I agree that the org is very unlikely to move Connor, even if they have to move 1 of the top 4 wingers. It appears that Ehlers would be the first to go. That would be a huge mistake. Huge. He should be the last. If one had to go, it should be Wheeler, AINEC. Based on age and contract alone it should be Wheeler. If you consider other factors it just gets to be more strongly Wheeler. Unfortunately age and contract also mean he would bring the least in return.
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,527
29,402
It would be logical. Ehlers is a better driver of play than Connor in terms of zone exits, transition and zone entry. His problem is that he isn't as good at retrieving pucks on the forecheck. Neither are Laine or Little. He is also not so great with puck possession along the boards on the cycle. As a result, unless they score off the rush or open-ice play, ELL end up defending way too much because they aren't good at puck possession or retrieval. At least, that's my "eye test" explanation for their metrics.

I think Ehlers is good at recovering possession defensively but agree that he is less adept on the forecheck and on the boards. It is an area I forget to give Connor the edge in. Ehlers is a good forechecker in open ice. Along the boards and behind the net, not so much although I think he was better at that with Scheif & wheeler also. Laine should be doing more of that heavy lifting in the D zone, especially when he is with Little and Ehlers. He is the one who has the body for that. Ehlers backchecks well but he has the same weakness along the boards as he does in the O zone. He needs to learn to avoid making it a pure strength contest. Connor has the knack of twisting and turning in a board battle to get the puck from bigger and stronger opponents.
 

LowLefty

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Dec 29, 2016
7,299
13,103
Regardless of their stylistic differences, the results that Ehlers achieves have been better than Connor if you consider actual offensive production (goals and points per 60 minutes) or shot metrics (Corsi, expected goals).

Whenever Ehlers has been on the top line they have performed much better than with Connor in terms of shot metrics, goal differentials and penalty differentials.

I'll go with the player that generates better results.


It's more than stylistic differences - I see an over all better skill set with Connor and a higher ceiling -
I won't debate the stats - I review players based on what I see - not the most advanced approach but that's the way I look at players.

Connors skill with the puck is over the top and I really like his ability to adapt to players on his line.
He can play the game a number of different ways including the cycle that Wheels and Scheif seem to prefer (right or wrong).

Looking at him, you'd never think this guy could play a board game but he does and he's effective even when you know it's not his prefered game.

His ability to put the puck in the net is better than Ehlers because he can do it more ways - regardless of 5 v 5
His ability to strip puck and hang onto pucks is also better - even in traffic.
His stick work is probably the best on the team - he's super nifty and very dangerous when he's anywhere near the net.

These are things I see when watching him play - his potential is huge based on his skill.

He is also the type of player I enjoy watching - always dangerous and always finding a way to get to the net - which is where some of our other top talent wingers struggle.

It's interesting that there is a split between fans who prefer Ehlers or Connor - probably related to the differences in their games and personal preferences with fans - and some will rely on the stats to make up their minds (and I'm in the camp of the later on most occasions - but not this time).

Regardless, I enjoy comparing the two - both are remarkable talents.
 

LowLefty

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Dec 29, 2016
7,299
13,103
I disagree. Ehlers speed often leaves him waiting for linemates to catch up. I think you are seeing the effect of that. He does tend to hang on too long, but he is getting much better at that. His linemates need to learn to take advanage of his skill and go to the spots he needs them to be in too. It works both ways.

When he was with Scheif and Wheeler he was much better in tight. Still no Connor. That's where KC shines.

Connor mast talented? I don't get that at all. No idea how you can make that statement unless 'talent' is composed entirely of reactions and hands in tight.

I agree that the org is very unlikely to move Connor, even if they have to move 1 of the top 4 wingers. It appears that Ehlers would be the first to go. That would be a huge mistake. Huge. He should be the last. If one had to go, it should be Wheeler, AINEC. Based on age and contract alone it should be Wheeler. If you consider other factors it just gets to be more strongly Wheeler. Unfortunately age and contract also mean he would bring the least in return.

You don't have to get it - it's my opinion.
I think his game is rounded - he can skate, shoot, score, handle the puck and traffic - very well.

The debate between these two will continue for years - maybe one of them will break out and separate himself - I'm betting on Connor.
 
  • Like
Reactions: haulinbass

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,527
29,402
You don't have to get it - it's my opinion.
I think his game is rounded - he can skate, shoot, score, handle the puck and traffic - very well.

The debate between these two will continue for years - maybe one of them will break out and separate himself - I'm betting on Connor.

:) You are entitled to your opinion. You are not even required to justify it if you choose not to. I agree, "he can skate, shoot, score, handle the puck and traffic - very well". He also forechecks pretty well and does very well along the boards, considering his lack of size. I like Connor, a lot. In spite of those attributes though, he doesn't drive play. He doesn't do much to make his linemates better and he isn't very good in his own end. He does still have plenty of potential to improve in those areas.

IMO, Ehlers already has broken out and separated himself. But if Maurice continues to favour Connor over him then your bet on Connor may be a good one. Or Ehlers may continue to exceed him playing for some other team.
 

WPGChief

Registered User
May 25, 2017
1,340
3,743
Winnipeg
jetsnation.ca
It's fine to have Ehlers and Connor excel in their own ways and let their talent shine, but you have to balance the chemistry of the other linemates as well. Identifying Playing Styles with Clustering:

fwd_lines.png


And of course, hockey is arguably a strong link game: that is, you want to have the best players on the ice as much as possible. Of course, not even McDavid can play 60 minutes a game - but you should try to create matchups where you have your elite talent distributed well throughout the lineup, while finding this chemistry.

Whether or not Ehlers or Connor is on the top line isn't a major concern to me. What concerns me is that stacking your top 6 as Maurice has done is not distributing your talent, especially when your top line has as considerable problems as they did last year forcing a very defensive dependent third line and minimal ice time fourth line.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ecolad

Jack722

Registered User
Mar 3, 2018
816
1,378
I think Connor is possibly better at protecting the puck but Ehlers is better at attacking with it. Ehlers beats defenders all the time and Connor rarely does.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Board Bard

Teemusalami204

Registered User
Jul 30, 2014
4,325
3,950
Winnipeg
I think Connor is possibly better at protecting the puck but Ehlers is better at attacking with it. Ehlers beats defenders all the time and Connor rarely does.


Connor actually shoots and can finish. Ehlers looks amazing and then passes to someone or flubs his shot. There is a huge difference between them
 
  • Like
Reactions: TheGovernment

Howard Chuck

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Jan 24, 2012
15,517
19,836
Winnipeg
Ehlers scored goals at a higher rate than Connor 5v5 (per 60 minutes) over the past two seasons. Connor's goal totals were boosted by more ice time and time on the #1 PP. Connor played a lot more with Scheifele and Wheeler, too.
Last year really threw all metrics off for a lot of players.

Wpgchief posted the GAR for our top wingers for the past three seasons and Ehlers and Laine are the two top even strength. I think everyone’s memories are too short when they are looking at performance. Both of those guys had limited ice time relative to their top 6 peers.
 
Last edited:

hn777

Registered User
Apr 22, 2019
667
1,228
I’d like to keep both, but if faced with a decision where could only keep one, I’m keeping Connor over Ehlers. Right now.

Connor’s puck control in tight is elite. He also has a knack for scoring goals, more so than Ehlers. I also believe his defensive game will evolve and become solid in time.

If you can get Connor signed at a reasonable amount long term, he’s the guy I keep, and move on from Ehlers. I think KVes can score at Ehlers rate of last year.

Ehlers had the best goalscoring rate in the 18/19 season on the Jets with 1.11 goals/60 (5v5), Scheif and Connor tied for 2nd with 0.93 goals/60.

Over the last 3 seasons Laine is best with 1.07 goals/60 (5vs5), followed by Connor with 0.94 and Ehlers with 0.93 goals/60.

Ehlers certainly has a knack for goal scoring, it is all about opportunity.
 

nobody imp0rtant

Registered pessimist
May 23, 2018
10,812
17,977
It's fine to have Ehlers and Connor excel in their own ways and let their talent shine, but you have to balance the chemistry of the other linemates as well. Identifying Playing Styles with Clustering:

fwd_lines.png


And of course, hockey is arguably a strong link game: that is, you want to have the best players on the ice as much as possible. Of course, not even McDavid can play 60 minutes a game - but you should try to create matchups where you have your elite talent distributed well throughout the lineup, while finding this chemistry.

Whether or not Ehlers or Connor is on the top line isn't a major concern to me. What concerns me is that stacking your top 6 as Maurice has done is not distributing your talent, especially when your top line has as considerable problems as they did last year forcing a very defensive dependent third line and minimal ice time fourth line.

Which classification would you apply to each of our forwards?
 

Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
14,657
13,518
Winnipeg
Connor actually shoots and can finish. Ehlers looks amazing and then passes to someone or flubs his shot. There is a huge difference between them
Ehlers had the highest 5v5 shots/60 on the Jets last year. He was the 6th best in SH% (11.35%) on the team, right behind Connor (11.84%). You must have a pretty goddamned sharp eye to detect that difference. :laugh:
 

Teemusalami204

Registered User
Jul 30, 2014
4,325
3,950
Winnipeg
Ehlers had the highest 5v5 shots/60 on the Jets last year. He was the 6th best in SH% (11.35%) on the team, right behind Connor (11.84%). You must have a pretty goddamned sharp eye to detect that difference. :laugh:


I guess I just see connor score in the playoffs and when it counts. And I see ehlers disappear for half a year at a time and two years of playoffs
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ippenator

Duke749

Savannah Ghost Pirates
Apr 6, 2010
47,996
23,185
Canton, Georgia
I guess I just see connor score in the playoffs and when it counts. And I see ehlers disappear for half a year at a time and two years of playoffs

You’re not seeing as much as you think you see. You’re not seeing Connor weigh down the top line. You’re not seeing him getting propped up consistently to produce. You’re not seeing Ehlers literally carry the top line defensively. These are obvious instances of people letting a few big events influence their opinions too much. None of what you stated is even close to the truth.
 

Teemusalami204

Registered User
Jul 30, 2014
4,325
3,950
Winnipeg
You’re not seeing as much as you think you see. You’re not seeing Connor weigh down the top line. You’re not seeing him getting propped up consistently to produce. You’re not seeing Ehlers literally carry the top line defensively. These are obvious instances of people letting a few big events influence their opinions too much. None of what you stated is even close to the truth.

Very good points. I see what your saying as well. It's all subjective though. The truth to me is different from your truth. We all see what we see. I wouldn't tell you what you see isnt the the truth. I would respect your opinion and do some research about it to see your side
 

voyageur

Hockey fanatic
Jul 10, 2011
9,477
8,170
You’re not seeing as much as you think you see. You’re not seeing Connor weigh down the top line. You’re not seeing him getting propped up consistently to produce. You’re not seeing Ehlers literally carry the top line defensively. These are obvious instances of people letting a few big events influence their opinions too much. None of what you stated is even close to the truth.

Wait a second so the Jets didn't have the leading goal scorer in the playoffs two years ago, playing on a line with Connor and Wheeler. Didn't happen? Connor gets 30 two years in a row. Ehlers gets demoted and benched in two straight playoffs. But but but Corsi?
 

PhilJets

Winnipeg is Good
Jun 24, 2012
10,404
8,133
Somewhere nice
For someone who cNt finish Ehlers sure can score. 4th best on the team since he came in?

He gets to toss around pretty much as well.
Year before this he was 2nd in the league at gaining the zone right?

Like Laine he is elite as some of the most important trait a player should have in a Game of hockey.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Howard Chuck

MardyBum

Registered User
Jul 4, 2012
16,541
16,907
Winnipeg, Manitoba
On the flip side of that many people blindly follow advanced stats and they have no idea how they’re formulated.

Here are some simple stats for you.

Ehlers has 8 less 5v5 points than Wheeler over the last 3 years, playing 400+ less minutes.

Ehlers is second on the team in 5v5 goals over the last 3 years, ahead of Scheifele and Wheeler, only behind Laine.

Second on the team in 5v5 shots over the last 3 years as well, ahead of Scheif and Laine, second to Wheeler.

Ehlers shot around 10.5% 5v5 the last 3 years in the regular season. If he shot his 10.5% he'd have ~4 goals 5v5 in the playoffs.

Fyi - Connor has 4 5v5 goals in the playoffs. Laine has 3. Wheeler has 1. Little has 1. Lowry has 1. Copp has 1.

And we'll just ignore all those complicated formulas that show that Ehlers makes his linemates better.

If you think he's going to continue shooting 0% all the power to ya guys :laugh:.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad