Player Discussion: Nikolaj "Probert" Ehlers Pt. 2

[Whileee]

Matthew Perreault on his own has negative value. 39 points last year and 30 points this year. Declining production and a $4 million cap hit for the next 2 seasons. The Jets would have to give up a second or third rounder to rid themselves of his contract.

Sure, a team like Ottawa will be looking to reach the cap floor in all likelihood. However, there will be other teams like the Jets in a cap crunch that will be looking to dump players that no longer fit in their player budget. Ottawa can simply play the teams off one another to see who would offer the most enticing deal for a cap dump.

I disagree. I think a smart GM will see Perreault as a valuable player, particularly for a team that doesn't have the kind of forward depth and cap crunch that the Jets have. If Perreault is widely viewed as a "cap dump", then NHL teams are wasting a lot of money on their "analytics" departments.

The only reason for the Jets to move Perreault is because they have two young LWs ahead of him on the depth chart and will need to allocate more cap to Laine and Connor, and a replacement for Trouba. If the Jets do end up moving Connor or Ehlers, they would be smart to keep Perreault if they can afford him. I do have some concerns about his durability going forward given his playing style, especially if he logs top-6 minutes.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Wow what a garbage offer.

I still don't understand the argument that if a team needs to make a trade for salary purposes that they should trade a young talented player on a great deal to get there. Why would we move a good contract like Ehlers?

They have evaluated him as a high end 2nd liner. That's why they think he would be available and also why they make a garbage offer. They think Jets are in cap hell even worse than they are. Not even close.

The real garbage here is how Ehlers was misused last year. It was almost criminal! Maurice's preference for Connor is inexplicable.

Hey Oilers! You want Ehlers? RNH + Bouchard gets my attention.

Pulju, Bear & 38,

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Thinking big picture it doesn’t really make sense to have 4 high priced wingers...Ehlers, Laine, Wheeler and Connor. Add in a 5th with Perreault making over $4M. Especially with C and D being more important positions. IMO, you almost have to trade one out.

Yes. Perreault.
Should have been traded at the last draft.

 

[LowLefty]

I disagree. I think a smart GM will see Perreault as a valuable player, particularly for a team that doesn't have the kind of forward depth and cap crunch that the Jets have. If Perreault is widely viewed as a "cap dump", then NHL teams are wasting a lot of money on their "analytics" departments.

The only reason for the Jets to move Perreault is because they have two young LWs ahead of him on the depth chart and will need to allocate more cap to Laine and Connor, and a replacement for Trouba. If the Jets do end up moving Connor or Ehlers, they would be smart to keep Perreault if they can afford him. I do have some concerns about his durability going forward given his playing style, especially if he logs top-6 minutes.

I'd be concerned about his middle of the road contract and how that impacts the cap regardless of who we move.
He's lost a step and the lazy penalties he now takes show that -

It looks like we are shaping up to be a high / low team - significant $'s tied up in a handful of players leaving little room for middle of the road contracts like his.
I don't see how we can can it both ways - high end and middle of the road contracts. Our bottom 6 is going to need to be very well managed in order to pay the high end guys - and that means making due with ELC players and / or meat and potato players that can eat up minutes without costing a lot of $'s.
Purr-o's contract will work much better on a team that isn't up against the big contracts and is built around middle of the road depth - if we get a chance to move him to a team like that, I'd do it in a heart beat.

 

[Quackenator]

I really don't think the Jets need to add a third there at all. KC is a young player coming off his ELC and put up back to back 30+ goal seasons. Lindholm is 3 years older and closer to UFA.

Niku is a RD.

Ehlers and a 2nd to the Ducks for Lindholm.
I'd do it in a heartbeat.

Replace Ehlers with Connor...

KC and a 3rd and I'd do it.
Lindholm Morrissey Niku Samberg...that side would look very good if they don't have problems signing Morrissey.

Ducks aren't moving Lindholm so don't even bother. I really like Ehlers though and wish he was deployed better

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Replace Ehlers with Connor...

And have the add going the other way. And make it a first.

No, I'm not drunk.
We are thrashing about here looking for solutions to the makeup of our roster. Clearly trade Connor before Ehlers. But - Kyle Connor has only scored 65 goals in his first 2 seasons in the NHL. Not points, goals. Plus nearly as many assists. These 2 wingers would have huge trade market value. IMO, we are thinking too small with both of them - if Chevy decided to move one.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Here's a "Wild" proposal...

To MINN: Trouba + Connor (Ehlers)
To WPG: Dumba + Zucker

Wild - but not crazy.

But Trouba in Minnesota is probably a non-starter.

And Minny fans would go nuts at any suggestion of trading Dumba.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Matthew Perreault on his own has negative value. 39 points last year and 30 points this year. Declining production and a $4 million cap hit for the next 2 seasons. The Jets would have to give up a second or third rounder to rid themselves of his contract.

Sure, a team like Ottawa will be looking to reach the cap floor in all likelihood. However, there will be other teams like the Jets in a cap crunch that will be looking to dump players that no longer fit in their player budget. Ottawa can simply play the teams off one another to see who would offer the most enticing deal for a cap dump.

You have to look at the usage. His advanced stats are still good. He is still a good 2nd line player if played on a 2nd line. He is not a cap dump. He does not have negative value. The versatility to play different roles on different lines is a positive.

He would have had higher trade value a year ago but he should still be worth a 3rd. If Chevy pays someone to take him, he isn't doing it right.

 

[Bob E]

I’d like to keep both, but if faced with a decision where could only keep one, I’m keeping Connor over Ehlers. Right now.

Connor’s puck control in tight is elite. He also has a knack for scoring goals, more so than Ehlers. I also believe his defensive game will evolve and become solid in time.

If you can get Connor signed at a reasonable amount long term, he’s the guy I keep, and move on from Ehlers. I think KVes can score at Ehlers rate of last year.

 

[Heldig]

Basically, the Jets have 4 first line wingers: Wheeler, Connor, Ehlers and Laine (no order). All 4 are going to be earning big money, and Ehlers will be making the least. Very likely the Jets wont be able to afford ALL 4 long term and solve the 2nd line C issue and solve the D. Wheeler is the least tradeable - age, contract, he is the Captain, team needs some veterans...I think the contract status plus analytics suggests Ehlers should be kept (despite rumours).

Thus it comes down to a choice between Connor and Laine. Both are fantastic goal scorers. Both are flawed players at this stage. I think Connor is more of a known entity. Laine's upside is ridiculous though his downside is pretty bad. Both could return premium assets if available.

Personally, I would entertain offers for Laine.

 

[Whileee]

I’d like to keep both, but if faced with a decision where could only keep one, I’m keeping Connor over Ehlers. Right now.

Connor’s puck control in tight is elite. He also has a knack for scoring goals, more so than Ehlers. I also believe his defensive game will evolve and become solid in time.

If you can get Connor signed at a reasonable amount long term, he’s the guy I keep, and move on from Ehlers. I think KVes can score at Ehlers rate of last year.

Ehlers scored goals at a higher rate than Connor 5v5 (per 60 minutes) over the past two seasons. Connor's goal totals were boosted by more ice time and time on the #1 PP. Connor played a lot more with Scheifele and Wheeler, too.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I disagree. I think a smart GM will see Perreault as a valuable player, particularly for a team that doesn't have the kind of forward depth and cap crunch that the Jets have. If Perreault is widely viewed as a "cap dump", then NHL teams are wasting a lot of money on their "analytics" departments.

The only reason for the Jets to move Perreault is because they have two young LWs ahead of him on the depth chart and will need to allocate more cap to Laine and Connor, and a replacement for Trouba. If the Jets do end up moving Connor or Ehlers, they would be smart to keep Perreault if they can afford him. I do have some concerns about his durability going forward given his playing style, especially if he logs top-6 minutes.

Agree with your first paragraph. But the reason to move Perreault is because we have 2 top 6 LW's ahead of him and another strong LW behind him in Vesalainen and we need cap space. He would be a cap casualty. That is not the same as a cap dump.

I think he got through last season without a serious injury because he has dialed back a bit to save his body.

 

[DRW204]

I wonder what Ehlers numbers would look like if his and Connor's roles were reversed... Give ehlers top line minutes with Scheifele & Wheeler and pp1 I bet he's clearing 70 pts. After all, ESW was our only top line combo worth a damn this past season.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I’d like to keep both, but if faced with a decision where could only keep one, I’m keeping Connor over Ehlers. Right now.

Connor’s puck control in tight is elite. He also has a knack for scoring goals, more so than Ehlers. I also believe his defensive game will evolve and become solid in time.

If you can get Connor signed at a reasonable amount long term, he’s the guy I keep, and move on from Ehlers. I think KVes can score at Ehlers rate of last year.

I'm tired of the Ehlers v Connor debate and don't want to get into it again - but, I can't just ignore this. Connor has a knack for putting it in the net. Quick reactions, good hands. That can't be ignored. But beyond that it is all Ehlers, over and over and by wide margins.

If you choose to ignore the advanced stats, which favour Ehlers quite a bit and just use the eye-test, it is even stronger in favour of Ehlers.

I'm not certain which of them would win a foot race, I suspect it would be Ehlers but Connor is also very fast. But look at how they use their speed. Ehlers uses it for zone exits and entries. He pushes the play with it. He drives his line with it. Connor turns it on occasionally to dodge a check.

Ehlers is the best defensive player in our top 6. Watch him when he is covering for a pinching D man, which he is quick to do BTW. He doesn't just cover the D position. He makes very good plays there. He breaks up plays. Watch him backcheck. He recovers possession of the puck. He has become an outstanding defensive F. Connor may or may not improve defensively. He probably never gets to be as good as Ehlers already is.

Look at how well Scheif and Wheeler performed with Ehlers vs how poorly they performed with KC. Ehlers makes his linemates better - as long as they aren't Little and Laine. But that is another story.

Much as I like Connor, and that is a lot, Ehlers is much more complete, a genuine 2 way player with high end scoring. Connor can develop further. So can Ehlers. If he can just learn to start using some of his many moves on the goalies, the sky's the limit.

In spite of all that, Connor is going to cost more. Just another thing favouring Ehlers.

 

[Whileee]

I wonder what Ehlers numbers would look like if his and Connor's roles were reversed... Give ehlers top line minutes with Scheifele & Wheeler and pp1 I bet he's clearing 70 pts. After all, ESW was our only top line combo worth a damn this past season.

Just a bit of math...

If Ehlers played the same amount at even strength and on the power play as Connor over the past two seasons, while maintaining his average goals and assists per minute, this is what their respective totals would be (excluding only PK time).

Connor 64 goals, 58 assists
Ehlers 64 goals, 62 assists.

Of course, Connor also played more with Scheifele and Wheeler both at even strength and on the PP, giving him an advantage.

 

[Jack722]

Just a bit of math...

If Ehlers played the same amount at even strength and on the power play as Connor over the past two seasons, while maintaining his average goals and assists per minute, this is what their respective totals would be (excluding only PK time).

Connor 64 goals, 58 assists
Ehlers 64 goals, 62 assists.

Of course, Connor also played more with Scheifele and Wheeler both at even strength and on the PP, giving him an advantage.

And Ehlers spent loooong periods on fairly middling lines, IMO.

 

[DRW204]

Just a bit of math...

If Ehlers played the same amount at even strength and on the power play as Connor over the past two seasons, while maintaining his average goals and assists per minute, this is what their respective totals would be (excluding only PK time).

Connor 64 goals, 58 assists
Ehlers 64 goals, 62 assists.

Of course, Connor also played more with Scheifele and Wheeler both at even strength and on the PP, giving him an advantage.

What do you use for a resource to find an individual player's point totals and rates on a given line combo.

Ie: Ehlers individual point totals and per 60 rates at even strength with Scheifele and Wheeler in 18-19

edit: Frozen has the players individual point totals on a line combo and NSS has the lines time. Not a fan of combining sources like that but can't find anything else

with Scheifele-Wheeler

Ehlers: 15 EVPs in 404 EV mins (2.27pts/60)
Connor: 15 EVPs in 557 EV mins (1.61 pts/60)

 

[Anton Hipchekhov]

Alternative 1: Trade Ehlers to shore up defence
Alternative 2: Keep the irreplaceable Dane and invest in better coaching / systems to improve defence

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Basically, the Jets have 4 first line wingers: Wheeler, Connor, Ehlers and Laine (no order). All 4 are going to be earning big money, and Ehlers will be making the least. Very likely the Jets wont be able to afford ALL 4 long term and solve the 2nd line C issue and solve the D. Wheeler is the least tradeable - age, contract, he is the Captain, team needs some veterans...I think the contract status plus analytics suggests Ehlers should be kept (despite rumours).

Thus it comes down to a choice between Connor and Laine. Both are fantastic goal scorers. Both are flawed players at this stage. I think Connor is more of a known entity. Laine's upside is ridiculous though his downside is pretty bad. Both could return premium assets if available.

Personally, I would entertain offers for Laine.

If choosing between the 2 it would depend on the relative returns. Assuming the same return for either one, I would sell Connor, because of that Laine upside. But if some team(s) were making offers based on that upside, I would have to listen.

There was some discussion earlier of a dumb article suggesting Ehlers to Edmonton for a bunch of scraps. Laine to Oilers price would be RNH + Bouchard + 1st, IMO. That may sound like an awful lot but Laine has already done very rare things in the NHL. Connor wouldn't be cheap either. I would say something like RNH + Bear/Jones + 2nd. Oilers probably wouldn't do either but that's my estimation of the values. On 2nd thought, maybe they would do the Connor one. Would we? Maybe I'm not asking enough.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I wonder what Ehlers numbers would look like if his and Connor's roles were reversed... Give ehlers top line minutes with Scheifele & Wheeler and pp1 I bet he's clearing 70 pts. After all, ESW was our only top line combo worth a damn this past season.

Give him those assignments and I think he goes over a ppg. Maybe quite a bit over.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I'm tired of the Ehlers v Connor debate and don't want to get into it again - but, I can't just ignore this. Connor has a knack for putting it in the net. Quick reactions, good hands. That can't be ignored. But beyond that it is all Ehlers, over and over and by wide margins.

If you choose to ignore the advanced stats, which favour Ehlers quite a bit and just use the eye-test, it is even stronger in favour of Ehlers.

I'm not certain which of them would win a foot race, I suspect it would be Ehlers but Connor is also very fast. But look at how they use their speed. Ehlers uses it for zone exits and entries. He pushes the play with it. He drives his line with it. Connor turns it on occasionally to dodge a check.

Ehlers is the best defensive player in our top 6. Watch him when he is covering for a pinching D man, which he is quick to do BTW. He doesn't just cover the D position. He makes very good plays there. He breaks up plays. Watch him backcheck. He recovers possession of the puck. He has become an outstanding defensive F. Connor may or may not improve defensively. He probably never gets to be as good as Ehlers already is.

Look at how well Scheif and Wheeler performed with Ehlers vs how poorly they performed with KC. Ehlers makes his linemates better - as long as they aren't Little and Laine. But that is another story.

Much as I like Connor, and that is a lot, Ehlers is much more complete, a genuine 2 way player with high end scoring. Connor can develop further. So can Ehlers. If he can just learn to start using some of his many moves on the goalies, the sky's the limit.

In spite of all that, Connor is going to cost more. Just another thing favouring Ehlers.

And yet Ehlers seems to regularly find himself in Maurice's doghouse. At least, that's my perception. Honestly, if there is a move afoot to trade Ehlers, it's because Maurice is pushing for it, not because of salary cap issues. That's my conspiracy theory for the day, anyway.

 

[LowLefty]

I’d like to keep both, but if faced with a decision where could only keep one, I’m keeping Connor over Ehlers. Right now.

Connor’s puck control in tight is elite. He also has a knack for scoring goals, more so than Ehlers. I also believe his defensive game will evolve and become solid in time.

If you can get Connor signed at a reasonable amount long term, he’s the guy I keep, and move on from Ehlers. I think KVes can score at Ehlers rate of last year.

Couldn't agree more -
I don't understand why we are even discussing trading Connor - he's top shelf talent that will only get better.
We throw out these options in our discussions as if these guys were dragging the team down.

 

[LowLefty]

I'm tired of the Ehlers v Connor debate and don't want to get into it again - but, I can't just ignore this. Connor has a knack for putting it in the net. Quick reactions, good hands. That can't be ignored. But beyond that it is all Ehlers, over and over and by wide margins.

If you choose to ignore the advanced stats, which favour Ehlers quite a bit and just use the eye-test, it is even stronger in favour of Ehlers.

I'm not certain which of them would win a foot race, I suspect it would be Ehlers but Connor is also very fast. But look at how they use their speed. Ehlers uses it for zone exits and entries. He pushes the play with it. He drives his line with it. Connor turns it on occasionally to dodge a check.

Ehlers is the best defensive player in our top 6. Watch him when he is covering for a pinching D man, which he is quick to do BTW. He doesn't just cover the D position. He makes very good plays there. He breaks up plays. Watch him backcheck. He recovers possession of the puck. He has become an outstanding defensive F. Connor may or may not improve defensively. He probably never gets to be as good as Ehlers already is.

Look at how well Scheif and Wheeler performed with Ehlers vs how poorly they performed with KC. Ehlers makes his linemates better - as long as they aren't Little and Laine. But that is another story.

Much as I like Connor, and that is a lot, Ehlers is much more complete, a genuine 2 way player with high end scoring. Connor can develop further. So can Ehlers. If he can just learn to start using some of his many moves on the goalies, the sky's the limit.

In spite of all that, Connor is going to cost more. Just another thing favouring Ehlers.

Ehlers major issue is that he doesn't know what to do with the puck when he has it - he'll gain the zone but nothing much happens once they are in the zone.
He doesn't have good instincts with line mates - he likes to hang on too long - in other words, he's not much of a playmaker.
His skating is top shelf, his edges are even better - that's his strength. His shooting is good but he doesn't score many goals around the net or by beating defenders in tight. Give him room and he's killer - crowd him and he tends to skate into a corner.

Skill wise, I see Connor as the likely the most "talented" player on the team - with room to fine tune the D side of this game which is a shortfall. He also needs to be more effective off the rush - but he has the skills to learn that part of the game.

Regardless, I'd be very surprised if the org were to move Connor - even if they had to move one of their top 4 wingers

I wish they would move Ehlers onto the 1st line and Connor to the 2nd so the narrative would hopefully stop on how much better Ehlers would be on the 1st line.

 

[Whileee]

What do you use for a resource to find an individual player's point totals and rates on a given line combo.

Ie: Ehlers individual point totals and per 60 rates at even strength with Scheifele and Wheeler in 18-19

edit: Frozen has the players individual point totals on a line combo and NSS has the lines time. Not a fan of combining sources like that but can't find anything else

with Scheifele-Wheeler

Ehlers: 15 EVPs in 404 EV mins (2.27pts/60)
Connor: 15 EVPs in 557 EV mins (1.61 pts/60)

I don't know of a good source for individual production with and without specific teammates.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

And yet Ehlers seems to regularly find himself in Maurice's doghouse. At least, that's my perception. Honestly, if there is a move afoot to trade Ehlers, it's because Maurice is pushing for it, not because of salary cap issues. That's my conspiracy theory for the day, anyway.

My only real guess for why Mau used Ehlers and Connor the way he did last year is that he thought Ehlers was better able to handle the more difficult assignments while Connor needed Scheif to carry him. Not much of a theory, but the best I can come up with. The other choices are a) he punishes Ehlers for Laine's shortcomings and b) Mau is completely incompetent.

Some of Maurice's player usage decisions last year went off the deep end.