Player Discussion Nikita Scherbak - Stay In Yo Lane Edition

[Habfan10]

I'm not sure but I think since they have a NHL contract, they are ineligible to perform.

If Mtl releases him back to OHL than he can be eligible to go to the Olympics.

 

[Habs100]

A difference maker for what? Helping us get the 15th overall pick instead of the 7th?

There's nothing good to come from bringing him up to try to salvage a season that's already lost.

He has 90 games less in the AHL than Hudon had.

True, if you want us to lose as much as possible and you think he'll help, there's no point in calling him up. So by that logic, we should be playing Niemi every game instead of Price. Every game Price plays is just a risk of injury and is detrimental to our hopes of the highest possible draft choice.

That may not be a bad strategy, and I'm in favor of the tank. But since management and Julien are clearly not going that route for the foreseeable future, my comments here are based on the objective of balancing Scherbak's long term development with what's best for making the best team possible this year.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Think it's the NHL rules.

Sounded like he would be eligible if released to the OHL since he would no longer be eligible to play in the NHL this season.

 

[Habs100]

De la Rose is definitely an example of a player that was brought up and down too early.
He only got 30 something AHL games in his first 2 seasons because he was often brought up only to sit in the stands or play limited minutes on the 4th line. Finally last year he got 62 games in at the AHL level and was close to a 20 goal scorer. Would have been better for him to have had 3 full seasons at the AHL level.

A young player certainly can't spend too much time in the AHL So Scherbak's really got to knock that door down and if he's going to be brought up, he better be getting quality minutes.

 

[teamfirst]

Radulov would have been a consistent 60+ point guy had he not been playing in Russia though. using him as an example is highly disingenuous.

As for Scherbak, he's literally 9 days away from being 22 and hasn't shown he can stick in the NHL yet. I realize he's had health issues and still has a bright future, but if he was a gamebreaker, he'd already be in the NHL. Gamebreaking ability is almost always shown early. I can't think of a single player who couldn't even stick around in the NHL by their 22 year old season who went on to become an elite player. Pacioretty is probably the closest example I can think of, who I don't think many of us would call "elite" and even he had more NHL success through his year 22 season.

Martin St-louis

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Martin St-louis

Perfect, a good example. Somewhat unique in that he did 4 years of University and dominated the IHL/AHL every year he played there, but even in spite of this didn't nail down an NHL spot until his age 25 season.

You of course had to go back nearly 20 years to find an example though. Another example could be Brett Hull if you want to go further back, although he like St. Louis did 4 years of college, which really skews things.

Scherbak's really got the deck stacked against him. Its basically unheard of for any player who didn't go through the US college system for 4 years to go on to become an elite player when they hadn't nailed down an NHL job by their age 22 season. Even if you include players who went through the US college system it is extremely rare.

 

[teamfirst]

Perfect, a good example. Somewhat unique in that he did 4 years of University and dominated the IHL/AHL every year he played there, but even in spite of this didn't nail down an NHL spot until his age 25 season.

You of course had to go back nearly 20 years to find an example though. Another example could be Brett Hull if you want to go further back, although he like St. Louis did 4 years of college, which really skews things.

Scherbak's really got the deck stacked against him. Its basically unheard of for any player who didn't go through the US college system for 4 years to go on to become an elite player when they hadn't nailed down an NHL job by their age 22 season. Even if you include players who went through the US college system it is extremely rare.

Daniel Briere

 

[LaP]

Martin St-louis

Jordie Benn

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Radulov would have been a consistent 60+ point guy had he not been playing in Russia though. using him as an example is highly disingenuous.

As for Scherbak, he's literally 9 days away from being 22 and hasn't shown he can stick in the NHL yet. I realize he's had health issues and still has a bright future, but if he was a gamebreaker, he'd already be in the NHL. Gamebreaking ability is almost always shown early. I can't think of a single player who couldn't even stick around in the NHL by their 22 year old season who went on to become an elite player. Pacioretty is probably the closest example I can think of, who I don't think many of us would call "elite" and even he had more NHL success through his year 22 season.

You're saying it as if Scherbak was given a real opportunity.
He played 3 nhl games last year and then got sent back down.
This year, he's been dominating the ahl, and got called up. He played 2 games and then got injured. He played on the 4th line and looked pretty good. Had he not gotten injured, he mightve still been on our roster today.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

You're saying it as if Scherbak was given a real opportunity.
He played 3 nhl games last year and then got sent back down.
This year, he's been dominating the ahl, and got called up. He played 2 games and then got injured. He played on the 4th line and looked pretty good. Had he not gotten injured, he mightve still been on our roster today.

I totally allow for that, and I'm not trying to write him off, I still believe he has a future on this team. I just don't think that future is on the top line though. That's all I'm trying to say. Not that he's a bust, but that if he was going to be a game breaking type player for us he'd almost certainly have forced his way on to the team by now.

 

[JianYang]

I wonder where this guy would rank among the Habs prospect pool if we did the ranking today.

I'm certainly more optimistic about him today than I was last year at this time.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I totally allow for that, and I'm not trying to write him off, I still believe he has a future on this team. I just don't think that future is on the top line though. That's all I'm trying to say. Not that he's a bust, but that if he was going to be a game breaking type player for us he'd almost certainly forced his way on to the team by now.

Hard to say that in his case because of how his AHL seasons have gone. Multiple injuries, playing for Lefebvre, getting moved to a new position whenever scoring consistently, or getting a call up whenever scoring consistently.

He's been unlucky and hasn't been handled very well up to this point. He has the talent to be a game breaker, and very well could be a top line player, or a top 6 player, if he's handled better, improves more and gets stronger. Avoiding injury is a big part of this and also getting proper handling and development, that may not happen considering our track record in the Bergevin era.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Daniel Briere

Briere took a while to get going, but he had played 82 games in the NHL through his age 22 season. He didn't have much success, but showed he could at least make some sort of impact.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Hard to say that in his case because of how his AHL seasons have gone. Multiple injuries, playing for Lefebvre, getting moved to a new position whenever scoring consistently, or getting a call up whenever scoring consistently.

He's been unlucky and hasn't been handled very well up to this point. He has the talent to be a game breaker, and very well could be a top line player, or a top 6 player, if he's handled better, improves more and gets stronger. Avoiding injury is a big part of this and also getting proper handling and development, that may not happen considering our track record in the Bergevin era.

I hope I'm wrong, I like the kid and if he can become a top line player like Pacioretty then that would be awesome. That could only mean good things for us, but I'm only trying to be realistic. If he manages to do that he'd be in very rare company in terms of going from non-NHLer at 22 to top line player. I see him as a 3rd liner with a decent scoring touch. 2nd line winger I would think is he absolute best case scenario though, and there's nothing wrong with that, especially considering his draft position.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

I totally allow for that, and I'm not trying to write him off, I still believe he has a future on this team. I just don't think that future is on the top line though. That's all I'm trying to say. Not that he's a bust, but that if he was going to be a game breaking type player for us he'd almost certainly have forced his way on to the team by now.

i think there's a difference between a game breaker and a top line player. He can be a top line player but I doubt he'd be a game breaker.

Pacioretty is one I can think of. The good Pacioretty that is. He'd be a top liner just about anywhere but is definitely not a game breaker.

I can't say either way whether age 22 is the definitive time line (barring very few exceptions, granted) for a game breaker to emerge. It seems about right.

Whether Scherbak has the pure talent to be one I'm not too sure. I think he's damn close. He'd have to bulk up for starters. He's producing like a guy who can potentially do a lot of damage in the bigs. I hope his notorious poor decision-making and effort of past years is something he's effectively worked out of his game for good.

I almost wrote him off myself. As excited as I am I'm not expecting huge point totals. 50 is possible and would be great. There's potential for more. If he's REALLY ironed out the kinks then more is definitely possible.

 

[Habs100]

I hope I'm wrong, I like the kid and if he can become a top line player like Pacioretty then that would be awesome. That could only mean good things for us, but I'm only trying to be realistic. If he manages to do that he'd be in very rare company in terms of going from non-NHLer at 22 to top line player. I see him as a 3rd liner with a decent scoring touch. 2nd line winger I would think is he absolute best case scenario though, and there's nothing wrong with that, especially considering his draft position.

When Scherbak was drafted he was advertised as a raw talent. And from the first training camp, we could see he came as advertised: very talented, and very raw. Now, we're seeing that raw talent starting to bloom and to crystalize. It's an exciting time and it will be interesting to see how high his ceiling is.

Bottom line: with a prospect like Scherbak, patience is key. But we'll be able to see what he really is over the next three years. I'm looking forward to them. He's got a lot of talent. The most important thing, imo, is for him to play a lot of minutes, whether in the AHL or the NHL.

 

[admiralcadillac]

I don't think there's a poster here who didn't like scherbak's personality. Let's hope he can become a radulov. I don't trust julien to play russians though

 

[Zorba]

When Scherbak was drafted he was advertised as a raw talent. And from the first training camp, we could see he came as advertised: very talented, and very raw. Now, we're seeing that raw talent starting to bloom and to crystalize. It's an exciting time and it will be interesting to see how high his ceiling is.

Bottom line: with a prospect like Scherbak, patience is key. But we'll be able to see what he really is over the next three years. I'm looking forward to them. He's got a lot of talent. The most important thing, imo, is for him to play a lot of minutes, whether in the AHL or the NHL.

If a first round pick isn’t producing in the NHL 5 years after drafted , they More than likely never will. I’d love to see a list of first round picks that became productive NHL players five year after drafted
That will be a short list. If by next year Sherbak isnt in Montreal producing , he never will

 

[Habs100]

If a first round pick isn’t producing in the NHL 5 years after drafted , they More than likely never will. I’d love to see a list of first round picks that became productive NHL players five year after drafted
That will be a short list. If by next year Sherbak isnt in Montreal producing , he never will

Even if he's in Montreal producing next year, it doesn't mean his production will be what it will be in the years that follow. We won't really know what kind of player he is until he's 25, most probably. Even that is not guaranteed.

 

[beowulf]

I certainly see him being called up at some point again. Maybe not right after the freeze but soon enough. I just wonder if calling him up to potentially play on a bottom line is worth it though.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

With Carr playing great, Deslaurier playing solid on the fourth line and Lehkonen coming back we are pretty full on the wing.. leave him down to keep putting up points the rest of the year.

He's not even 21 yet, producing offensively in the AHL for a full year will help him and hopefully he can come to camp stronger next season and ready for a job in the NHL.

 

[Hostile Offer]

I certainly see him being called up at some point again. Maybe not right after the freeze but soon enough. I just wonder if calling him up to potentially play on a bottom line is worth it though.

He's the kinda guy who needs offensive linemates to be actually useful. I'd say there should be a role in the top three lines available for him this season but there's no need to rush it.

 

[beowulf]

If a first round pick isn’t producing in the NHL 5 years after drafted , they More than likely never will. I’d love to see a list of first round picks that became productive NHL players five year after drafted
That will be a short list. If by next year Sherbak isnt in Montreal producing , he never will

5th or 6th season would be a cutoff but mostly depends on the route the player took, college versus junior versus Euro/AHL. A number of good players drafted in the first round took 4 or more years to start producing.

Max Pacioretty didn't start producing until his 5th season after the draft.
Shane Doan jumped from 22 points in his 4th season to 51 in his fifth and never looked back.
Daymond Langkow had never reached 30 points in his first 5 season then jumped to 50 in his 6th and stayed at the level or better for a number of years.
Logan Couture started producing 4 years after he was drafted.
Both Sedins didn't start producing until the 5th-6th season after being drafted.
Took JP Dumont 6 seasons.
Radek Bonk hit 60 in his 6th season but no more than 30 before.
Jeff O'Neil didn't hit 60+ until his 6th season starting a string of 5 straight 60+ point seasons and four 30+ goals include one of 41.
Olli Jokinen didn't turn into a solid NHL producer until his 6th season.

The list goes on.

 

[montreal]

He's not even 21 yet, producing offensively in the AHL for a full year will help him and hopefully he can come to camp stronger next season and ready for a job in the NHL.

He turns 22 next week.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

He turns 22 next week.

Oops, that's what I meant to say haha. Even though it feels like he's been around for a while, I often forget he's still that young given his late birthday.