Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - Looking Ahead to 2020

[SeaOfBlue]

Thanks for the thoughts. I don't know enough about the draft, so getting any information is good.
I'm okay with Pytlik, all though I prefer a more skilled option, but he's solid.
I like Garand a lot as a goalie in this draft. Hardie is good too. The rest I don't know a lot about about.

Well the common perception is this draft is "super stacked" when it is not. Now I don't think they picked the best people, especially in the later rounds, but I think the best value comes in those 3rd and 4th rounds, and there are some guys you may be able to steal in rounds 5-7 if you are really smart, but it's more underwhelming than previous years IMO.

 

[hockeynorth]

Well the common perception is this draft is "super stacked" when it is not. Now I don't think they picked the best people, especially in the later rounds, but I think the best value comes in those 3rd and 4th rounds, and there are some guys you may be able to steal in rounds 5-7 if you are really smart, but it's more underwhelming than previous years IMO.

Tbh I feel like it only gets viewed as "super stacked" because the OHL class is better than its been lately and when the OHL is deep it gets a lot of media hype

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Tbh I feel like it only gets viewed as "super stacked" because the OHL class is better than its been lately and when the OHL is deep it gets a lot of media hype

I guess. The CHL has been a bit underwhelming in recent years and it is a pretty good CHL class, but even then I wouldn't say it knocks my socks off or anything.

 

[Crosside]

Fan of other team just come in peace to share information. Apparently your team see Jeremy Poirier in your soup

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Fan of other team just come in peace to share information. Apparently your team see Jeremy Poirier in your soup

I doubt he makes it to the 50's. He may just barely slip into the 2nd round, but he won't last long if he does. He has arguably the most offensive upside out of any defenseman in the draft ouside of Drysdale.

 

[LeafChief]

Fan of other team just come in peace to share information. Apparently your team see Jeremy Poirier in your soup

We are big on soup here.

 

[daethfromabove1979]

Fan of other team just come in peace to share information. Apparently your team see Jeremy Poirier in your soup

Seems like a stretch that he is available for us, his teammate William Villeneuve is more in our range.

 

[stickty111]

I doubt he makes it to the 50's. He may just barely slip into the 2nd round, but he won't last long if he does. He has arguably the most offensive upside out of any defenseman in the draft ouside of Drysdale.

Are you worried about his defensive game? Do you think it's an IQ problem which is a red flag to me, or he just needs more experience?

 

[Knies iT]

Seems like a stretch that he is available for us, his teammate William Villeneuve is more in our range.

Villeneuve is my top preference for our 2nd rounder. Unfortunately, I doubt he'll still be available at that point, much like O'Rourke who I was hoping for earlier in the season. Villeneuve's one of the best transitional defenders in the draft and there's an argument to be made that he projects better than Poirier.

Their teammate Charlie DesRoches is one of my favourite sleepers. I think he has the potential to be one of the most dynamic defenders in the draft.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Villeneuve is my top preference for our 2nd rounder. Unfortunately, I doubt he'll still be available at that point, much like O'Rourke who I was hoping for earlier in the season. Villeneuve's one of the best transitional defenders in the draft and there's an argument to be made that he projects better than Poirier.

Their teammate Charlie DesRoches is one of my favourite sleepers. I think he has the potential to be one of the most dynamic defenders in the draft.

I don't have Desroches as a draft-worthy defenseman anymore, or at least not until the very end of the draft. I had him above Villeneuve earlier in the year but since then he has not been overly impressive to me. His defensive game needs a fair bit of work, which is fine, but his offensive skill set, especially for a guy who is going to need to be a puck moving type who can bring some offense, was not amazing. Even though he was given big minutes (including on the PP), he did not put up a ton of points and many of those points were secondary assists. I also watched Saint John a few times and while I think he has a solid offensive arsenal, I don't think it's good enough to mask the rest of his deficiencies.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Thanks for the thoughts. I don't know enough about the draft, so getting any information is good.
I'm okay with Pytlik, all though I prefer a more skilled option, but he's solid.
I like Garand a lot as a goalie in this draft. Hardie is good too. The rest I don't know a lot about about.

I'm in the same boat as you with Pytlik. He's fine, but I'd rather the Leafs go for a player with as high of an offensive ceiling as possible at their pick. Seeing that we have ten picks, and Robertson coming up, I'd actually like to see us try and make a play to move back into the first round. The Moore, Hardie, and Garand picks are nice though. I'd say this draft would be good for us, especially if we go for a higher ceiling guy with our first pick.

 

[Knies iT]

I don't have Desroches as a draft-worthy defenseman anymore, or at least not until the very end of the draft. I had him above Villeneuve earlier in the year but since then he has not been overly impressive to me. His defensive game needs a fair bit of work, which is fine, but his offensive skill set, especially for a guy who is going to need to be a puck moving type who can bring some offense, was not amazing. Even though he was given big minutes (including on the PP), he did not put up a ton of points and many of those points were secondary assists. I also watched Saint John a few times and while I think he has a solid offensive arsenal, I don't think it's good enough to mask the rest of his deficiencies.

Definitely a bit of an enigma. I just don't see how he doesn't put it together with his skillset because he has the tools to be that player. His shooting, skating, and breakout ability are all top notch but he just doesn't control/dominate the ice consistently enough. Is it mental? Is it because he's competing for ice time with Poirier/Villeneuve? No clue.

He's someone I would bet a mid round pick on that he figures it out, though.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'm in the same boat as you with Pytlik. He's fine, but I'd rather the Leafs go for a player with as high of an offensive ceiling as possible at their pick. Seeing that we have ten picks, and Robertson coming up, I'd actually like to see us try and make a play to move back into the first round. The Moore, Hardie, and Garand picks are nice though. I'd say this draft would be good for us, especially if we go for a higher ceiling guy with our first pick.

We don't have the picks to do that, and I wouldn't trade from other drafts just to move up. I actually think pick value gets worse as you move up. I think the wise move would be to sit on the pick and then just see what is out there. If teams were drafting well and the guys left over are mostly those undersized skilled wingers, I would move down. The Leafs have those guys in spades and will be able to find some good ones in the later rounds, but other teams may want the better guys enough to trade up for them.

Ozzy Wiesblatt, Daniil Gushchin, Alex Pashin, Carter Savoie, Sean Farrell, Yan Kuznetsov, Luke Evangelista, and Justin Sourdif were all still out there (in addition to Pytlik) and while I would not necessarily jump for joy for any of them at 50 except maybe Wiesblatt, other teams may love their potential. The Leafs may be able to get a couple of picks in the 60's in return and still get one of those guys to drop to them.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Definitely a bit of an enigma. I just don't see how he doesn't put it together with his skillset because he has the tools to be that player. His shooting, skating, and breakout ability are all top notch but he just doesn't control/dominate the ice consistently enough. Is it mental? Is it because he's competing for ice time with Poirier/Villeneuve? No clue.

He's someone I would bet a mid round pick on that he figures it out, though.

He looks very similar to Hollowell to me, but Hollowell was always a very cerebral defender and even he looks like a long shot to turn into anything at this point.

I am also very wary about QMJHL competition. While there are some high end prospects that come out of that league, there is usually a much larger gap between those who are pick worthy and those who are not vs. the OHL and WHL.

 

[hockeynorth]

I just did one of those mock sims:

50 - Dmitri Ovchinnikov
112 - Jack Thompson
118 - Blake Biondi
149 - Stephen Halliday
174 - Tanner Dickinson
177 - Lucas Ramberg
184 - Reid Valade
189 - Dmitri Sheshin
198 - Benjamin Baumgartner
216 - Parker Ford

I'd be down for this

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I just did one of those mock sims:

50 - Dmitri Ovchinnikov
112 - Jack Thompson
118 - Blake Biondi
149 - Stephen Halliday
174 - Tanner Dickinson
177 - Lucas Ramberg
184 - Reid Valade
189 - Dmitri Sheshin
198 - Benjamin Baumgartner
216 - Parker Ford

I'd be down for this

Where was the mock sim from?

 

[hockeynorth]

Where was the mock sim from?

draftsim

There was a really fun site a few years ago but I can't remember what it was now

 

[SeaOfBlue]

draftsim

There was a really fun site a few years ago but I can't remember what it was now

Alright I will give it a shot. All of the draft sims I have tried suck.

I tried one recently and we were able to get Mavrik Bourque... If we got Bourque at 50, there are some really stupid teams ahead of us.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Alright I will give it a shot. All of the draft sims I have tried suck.

I tried one recently and we were able to get Mavrik Bourque... If we got Bourque at 50, there are some really stupid teams ahead of us.

50 - LW Greig (I would have probably traded down here though)
112 - LD Knazko
118 - C Biondi
149 - G Bednar
174 - C Goncalves
177 - RD Ratzlaff
184 - LD Uens
189 - RW Valade
198 - RW Trineyev
216 - C Baumgartner

--
I tried a trade. 71+75+102 for 50 + 112.

71 - RW Evangelista
75 - G Blomqvist
102 - RD Nickl
118 - C/LW Biondi
149 - C/LW Slaggert
174 - C/LW Goncalves
177 - RD Ratzlaff
184 - LD Uens
189 - RW Valade
198 - RW Trineyev
216 - C Baumgartner

I think it is a solid haul. Evangelista, Blomqvist, Nickl and Biondi at the top are a solid quartet of prospects who I don't think are much worse than many of the guys found higher up in the draft. Nickl and Biondi could have gone 3rd round so getting them in the 4th would have been a real coup. I think trading down would be a solid idea because unless there is one of those better guys available at 50, I don't think the vast majority of the pool is better than much of what is available in the top 125.

Once you get lower down, it's mostly just finding smart role players. Slaggert and Goncalves are smart, responsible, hard working two-way centers. Their upside is not extremely high on their own, but they can be solid 3C's in their own right and I think could be developed into complimentary wingers if they can't hack it as centers. Valade is very similar, but he is a pure RW. I think he has some untapped potential that could really explode and make him into another Connor Brown type.

Uens is a smart, puck-moving two-way defenseman with excellent skating ability. I think he has enough upside to be a good #4 some day, but even if he settles in as a bottom pairing guy, he is going to be very valuable. Ratzlaff is a little bit more of a project. He is built like a linebacker because he is one; he's ranked a 3-star Football prospect right now and is actually still deciding whether he wants to pursue hockey or football in college. I am not totally sold on him yet, but TBH I wasn't sold on a lot of the guys remaining, so I decided why not.

Finally, Trineyev is a very raw project with size. He is a smart player and finds ways to be effective, but he is going to be a 5 year project at least. Shot needs work, skating needs work, puck skills needs work, he needs to fill out... There is a lot that needs to improve and puts him behind many of the other power forward profiles in this draft. However his IQ could make him one of the better power forwards in this draft if he does develop well, and I don't have concerns about his commitment to improving himself. I watched Baumgartner last year in the U20's and I am kind of bummed we won't be able to see him on the top stage with Austria next year. Undersized, but I think he has a good amount of skill for a guy you find right at the end of the draft. We have 2 years to see just how good he can become, and he gives us another center option to compete with SDA indirectly.

 

[Stephen]

With so much of the season left unplayed and developmental system in disarray for the foreseeable future, I wonder if teams will be more inclined to go off the board for project picks, favouring raw skill, or if they'll go for the more mature, established prospect given developmental time might be in short supply in the near future?

Also, in a few years time it will be interesting to track if we have some down years in the quality of the drafts from this Covid disruption.

 

[weems]

Been watching alot of Kitchener Rangers games the past few weeks and have been really impressed with Donovan Sebrango.

Very good skater with strong 4way agility.
Solid with the puck and shows underrated offensive ability (known more as a defensive D)
Good size and plays bigger than the listed 6'1 190lbs

Looks like one of those new age shutdown guys who can do a bit of eveything while bringing physicality.

Would definitely get behind this selection in the 3rd round if possible.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Been watching alot of Kitchener Rangers games the past few weeks and have been really impressed with Donovan Sebrango.

Very good skater with strong 4way agility.
Solid with the puck and shows underrated offensive ability (known more as a defensive D)
Good size and plays bigger than the listed 6'1 190lbs

Looks like one of those new age shutdown guys who can do a bit of eveything while bringing physicality.

Would definitely get behind this selection in the 3rd round if possible.

What about Valade and McDonnell?

We don't have a 3rd rounder, and TBH I have some concerns about his upside. I think he has lower upside than a lot of the guys you can get in the 3rd round, but is still solid value there. Almost like Kokkonen. The most I have watched of him was at the top prospects game and while he wasn't terrible, he did not stand out either... Which is probably a good thing for a guy like him. He fought Cuylle and did pretty well, and he was mostly solid, but the tools are just nothing special.

 

[weems]

What about Valade and McDonnell?

We don't have a 3rd rounder, and TBH I have some concerns about his upside. I think he has lower upside than a lot of the guys you can get in the 3rd round, but is still solid value there. Almost like Kokkonen. The most I have watched of him was at the top prospects game and while he wasn't terrible, he did not stand out either... Which is probably a good thing for a guy like him. He fought Cuylle and did pretty well, and he was mostly solid, but the tools are just nothing special.

Valade and Mcdonnell looked solid. I liked McDonnell more than Valade but it was only a 3 game sample. McDonnel was the most impressive of the Pinelli, Valade, McDonnell group.

Arber Xhekaj was also pretty good.

I see what you're saying about his upside as I think he'll never be a big point producer but I think his skillset is pretty good if you're talking about skating/puck skills/physicality and projecting him more as a defensive D. His playstyle actually reminds me of Dermott. He also got somewhat blocked a bit offensively this season when they brought over Bergkvist. He wont be a sexy pick but I think hes got a pretty solid chance to make the NHL.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

With so much of the season left unplayed and developmental system in disarray for the foreseeable future, I wonder if teams will be more inclined to go off the board for project picks, favouring raw skill, or if they'll go for the more mature, established prospect given developmental time might be in short supply in the near future?

Also, in a few years time it will be interesting to track if we have some down years in the quality of the drafts from this Covid disruption.

It probably will not be any different than usual in terms of strategy. I don't think teams are worried about the opportunity to develop prospects, but since the Leafs are going to be drafting late quite a bit anyways, they may lean towards Europeans and NCAA guys than guys from the CHL just so they can hang onto them longer. That should be a strategy regardless though.

The main difference is there is no playoff factor or tournament factor. Some guys make their bed (either in a good or a bad way) in the playoffs and tournaments. Now that is taken away. So hypothetically there are some guys who likely would have raised or dropped their stock, and teams have less content to work with when deciding who to pick. There could be a higher volume of busts and steals this year though, not only because of Covid 19, but because the vast majority of the quality in this draft is very boom-bust.

I don't really think Covid-19 will affect the types of prospects getting drafted. I don't think teams are really worried about development opportunities for their guys. By most indications, it seems like things will more or less be fine after the summer. Even if there may be some restrictions or delays, I doubt it will affect development opportunities.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Valade and Mcdonnell looked solid. I liked McDonnell more than Valade but it was only a 3 game sample. McDonnel was the most impressive of the Pinelli, Valade, McDonnell group.

Arber Xhekaj was also pretty good.

I see what you're saying about his upside as I think he'll never be a big point producer but I think his skillset is pretty good if you're talking about skating/puck skills/physicality and projecting him more as a defensive D. His playstyle actually reminds me of Dermott. He also got somewhat blocked a bit offensively this season when they brought over Bergkvist. He wont be a sexy pick but I think hes got a pretty solid chance to make the NHL.

I like Valade as a 6th or 7th round guy. Not sure I would take him higher than that. He seems like he has a good set of skills and even plays a pretty good, consistent game. Must have some bad luck when it comes to production.

McDonnell is the guy I am trying to figure out. He is not huge, but he's not small. He had good production for an OHL rookie. I just can't find much outside of highlights for him, and the highlights don't tell me enough.