Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - Looking Ahead to 2020

[Knies iT]

Well the concern was also with his underlying numbers. He struggled to score and put up production and he was unable to adapt as a center all that well.

He kind of just fell into the entire fray of Soo forwards. A bunch of quality tools that never really culminated into a very dangerous product, which is pretty much the opposite of Kerins and Pytlik; simple but very effective games that played up in key roles.

So it will be a nice test to see how Dubas and Co. view him. Do they look at his package, where he is fast, good IQ, nice offensive skill set with quality defensive ability but needs to improve his strength and shot (and hopefully be able to take on more center responsibilities). Or do they look at his underlying numbers where he shouldn't even be on any draft radars.

Personally, I find the majority of guys can't really excuse those underlying numbers. He had enough talent around him to do better, but it was also not like NHL talent where he would struggle to get ice time if he earned it. And most certainly he should have been lower on the Central Scouting list... I'd say he goes undrafted, gets a camp invite, and perhaps can change people's minds next year if he puts things together. However the same things were said about Constantinou, MacKay and Carroll and none of them look like draft candidates this year.

I actually really like Constantinou's overall offensive game. You don't think he'll get drafted? He's a fantastic skater with the puck and his vision in the O-zone is pretty high-end. Could easily see him QBing a PP at the pro level and his skating alone makes him a more attractive overage option than a guy like Durzi, for me personally.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I actually really like Constantinou's overall offensive game. You don't think he'll get drafted? He's a fantastic skater with the puck and his vision in the O-zone is pretty high-end. Could easily see him QBing a PP at the pro level and his skating alone makes him a more attractive overage option than a guy like Durzi, for me personally.

His defensive game is still too much of a mess for me. He may turn into one of those prime AHL contract candidates that you can invest in and hope they can maybe turn into something, but I wouldn't spend a pick on him.

Durzi had more defensive IQ. He was never going to be an elite shutdown guy, but he had the kind of offensive skills to be an offensive contributor while still being good enough defensively to at least not be a liability. I think as long as you gave him a solid defensive partner, he could handle a tougher defensive role. Constantinou needs quite a bit of work to even get to the point where he would not be a liability or be at Durzi's level. Also FTR, I did not really value Durzi all that highly either (more as a mid-round type of guy than a 2nd rounder, just to provide perspective about where a guy like Constantinou would situate himself).

I have a strong adversion to offensive defensemen though. Pretty much Durzi is about pure offensive-defensemen as it gets for me, unless that guy can put up ridiculous numbers (and even then, there is only so much room you can fit for sheltered defensemen, even if they put up huge offensive numbers). Constantinou is a long shot to become a non-sheltered defenseman in the pros, and while I think he will put up good production for a defenseman, I don't think it'll ever be enough to warrant using him as a sheltered defenseman in the NHL.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Could he be similar to an Abruzzese type that has a high IQ and other tools, then breaks out and puts up the points after his draft year?

Well the concern was also with his underlying numbers. He struggled to score and put up production and he was unable to adapt as a center all that well.

He kind of just fell into the entire fray of Soo forwards. A bunch of quality tools that never really culminated into a very dangerous product, which is pretty much the opposite of Kerins and Pytlik; simple but very effective games that played up in key roles.

So it will be a nice test to see how Dubas and Co. view him. Do they look at his package, where he is fast, good IQ, nice offensive skill set with quality defensive ability but needs to improve his strength and shot (and hopefully be able to take on more center responsibilities). Or do they look at his underlying numbers where he shouldn't even be on any draft radars.

Personally, I find the majority of guys can't really excuse those underlying numbers. He had enough talent around him to do better, but it was also not like NHL talent where he would struggle to get ice time if he earned it. And most certainly he should have been lower on the Central Scouting list... I'd say he goes undrafted, gets a camp invite, and perhaps can change people's minds next year if he puts things together. However the same things were said about Constantinou, MacKay and Carroll and none of them look like draft candidates this year.

Well the concern was also with his underlying numbers. He struggled to score and put up production and he was unable to adapt as a center all that well.

He kind of just fell into the entire fray of Soo forwards. A bunch of quality tools that never really culminated into a very dangerous product, which is pretty much the opposite of Kerins and Pytlik; simple but very effective games that played up in key roles.

So it will be a nice test to see how Dubas and Co. view him. Do they look at his package, where he is fast, good IQ, nice offensive skill set with quality defensive ability but needs to improve his strength and shot (and hopefully be able to take on more center responsibilities). Or do they look at his underlying numbers where he shouldn't even be on any draft radars.

Personally, I find the majority of guys can't really excuse those underlying numbers. He had enough talent around him to do better, but it was also not like NHL talent where he would struggle to get ice time if he earned it. And most certainly he should have been lower on the Central Scouting list... I'd say he goes undrafted, gets a camp invite, and perhaps can change people's minds next year if he puts things together. However the same things were said about Constantinou, MacKay and Carroll and none of them look like draft candidates this year.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Could he be similar to an Abruzzese type that has a high IQ and other tools, then breaks out and puts up the points after his draft year?

Well Abruzzese was the top scorer in the USHL (on a Chicago team that was good, but nowhere near as stacked as they are this year) when he was drafted and has really high IQ.

Dickinson can make teams really regret not picking him, but there are a lot of players who will go undrafted who can say the exact same thing. Then it is also a matter of what he becomes in the NHL? Is he another Kerfoot with maybe a bit more foot speed? That seems to be the book on him, but he needs to put everything together to get to that point and then really is that really worth investing in? It's one thing to value a fully-formed Kerfoot, but getting a guy who is, at best, going to turn into him is not exactly the best investment... Especially when he has a lot to put together.

I think the best course of action for the Leafs would be to pass on Dickinson altogether and see what he can become next year. Much like Constantinou. He has the package but if he can't put things together then he's not going to be a pro product. Maybe they end up regretting not taking him this year, just teams would have regretted not taking Constantinou had he exploded, but I can't honestly say that he is one of the best 217 or so prospects in this draft right now. If he is, then it would be as a 6th or 7th rounder at best.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Well Abruzzese was the top scorer in the USHL (on a Chicago team that was good, but nowhere near as stacked as they are this year) when he was drafted and has rea

I meant in Nick's first draft eligible season when he had 36 pts in 56 games. He then broke out and put up 80 in 62 games To then get drafted by us. The IQ and tools were there but then I guess he just figured it out. I'm wondering if this Dickinson kid can be a similar case.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I meant in Nick's first draft eligible season when he had 36 pts in 56 games. He then broke out and put up 80 in 62 games To then get drafted by us. The IQ and tools were there but then I guess he just figured it out. I'm wondering if this Dickinson kid can be a similar case.

That was his D+1 season. He was in an American U18 league in his DY.

I guess in theory Dickinson could figure it out, but look at what waiting for Abruzzese cost us once he figured it out. Essentially a 5th round pick? Even if Dickinson somehow does figure it out, his ceiling is still nothing extremely spectacular. Maybe a 2nd/3rd line tweener with some speed and vision off of the wing as a playmaker and maybe can play some center? I mean his scouting report essentially sounds like Tanner MacMaster's back in 2014, and like a dozen other prospects that come out every year.

Except unlike many of those dozen prospects, he has poor underlying numbers going against him too. I think the only thing that will work in his favour is how well he matches up relative to Rory Kerins and Jaromir Pytlik. Pytlik is a top 75 prospect and Kerins is a top 100-125 prospect in this draft. If teams do not see at least as much out of Dickinson as they do a guy like Kerins, he's not getting drafted.

 

[Prominence]

That anton johanneson sounds like a leafs draft pick. Kasper puutio seems interesting too.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Any guys in rounds 4-7 that are a big RHD that play a bit nasty like an Adam McQuaid or Radko Gudas?

2-way forwards (ideally centres) with some grit?

 

[Mickey Marner]

Anyone know if the age cutoff will still be September 15th? I wouldn't mind throwing a pick at Aatu Raty and seeing if it sticks.

 

[93LEAFS]

Anyone know if the age cutoff will still be September 15th? I wouldn't mind throwing a pick at Aatu Raty and seeing if it sticks.

They aren't going to purposefully weaken 2021, so I'd expect it to stay. When Florida tried to draft Ovi there argument was based on leap years making him eligible. The CBA/NHL agreement on draft eligible players isn't going to be altered. Plus, if we were going to try something that ridiculous, I'd target Kent Johnson.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Any guys in rounds 4-7 that are a big RHD that play a bit nasty like an Adam McQuaid or Radko Gudas?

2-way forwards (ideally centres) with some grit?

Why do we need those guys? They hardly even survive in today's NHL as it is.

Luke Prokop is pretty much it, and he's hardly "nasty". Nikishin is the most similar to guys like that, he's left-handed but plays both sides.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Why do we need those guys? They hardly even survive in today's NHL as it is.

Luke Prokop is pretty much it, and he's hardly "nasty". Nikishin is the most similar to guys like that, he's left-handed but plays both sides.

I like guys that are hard to play against. We have a ton of skill. By all means, go for it, especially with that 2nd rounder, find another Robertson or Sandin.

I am just not a fan of literally rolling 4 offensive lines. Someone has to check, someone has to pk, finish checks, match up etc.

If you really hit, you find an O'Rielly maybe or a Pesce but I mean are we gonna complain if we find a player that can pk, hit, fight etc for our 3rd pairing / bottom 6 on a 5th-7th round pick? I wouldn't complain.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I like guys that are hard to play against. We have a ton of skill. By all means, go for it, especially with that 2nd rounder, find another Robertson or Sandin.

I am just not a fan of literally rolling 4 offensive lines. Someone has to check, someone has to pk, finish checks, match up etc.

If you really hit, you find an O'Rielly maybe or a Pesce but I mean are we gonna complain if we find a player that can pk, hit, fight etc for our 3rd pairing / bottom 6 on a 5th-7th round pick? I wouldn't complain.

Well people complained all the time about guys like Polak who literally did all of those things. Not many guys play with an edge like that anymore, and those who do are usually not that great and do not really deserve to be playing over better, more skilled defensemen. I forgot to add Donovan Sebrango to that list, but he's also a LD and his stock is inflated due to being a bit of a warrior who will fight. His pure defensive ability is not as high as his ranking dictates IMO. Maybe Jake Ratzlaff and Jeremie Biakabutuka too; Ratzlaff is a 3-star linebacker who is 6'3", 200+ lbs as an 18 year old in high school and Biakabutuka is the son of a former CFLer, so he's massive as well. However neither of them have been noted for their physicality really.

We did not even really roll 4 offensive lines. Our 4th line is defensively sound. Our 3rd line was definitely more of a two-way line than an offensive line as well. The Leafs have drafted great two-way players, but they have chosen not to sign many of them. Stotts being one of them. I guess they prefer to adapt skill guys like Timashov and Moore into skilled grinders who have great puck skills, and I guess guys like Stotts did not have enough of those skills. We can get some energy players in this draft up front, but it is a matter of whether the Leafs really find those kind of guys valuable, and whether they are fine with many of them being energy players more like Kapanen than perhaps a Komarov.

 

[Knies iT]

I like guys that are hard to play against. We have a ton of skill. By all means, go for it, especially with that 2nd rounder, find another Robertson or Sandin.

I am just not a fan of literally rolling 4 offensive lines. Someone has to check, someone has to pk, finish checks, match up etc.

If you really hit, you find an O'Rielly maybe or a Pesce but I mean are we gonna complain if we find a player that can pk, hit, fight etc for our 3rd pairing / bottom 6 on a 5th-7th round pick? I wouldn't complain.

Chasing role players in the late rounds won't pay dividends over time. You're essentially hoping, in a best case scenario, that they top out as depth pieces who play in a specialized PK role. Just look at the Leafs with Middleton, Nielsen, Mattinen, Greenway, Gordeev, etc. All have busted hard and even if they trended better, you're probably looking at a Ben Harpur type.

I'd much rather swing for that player in the 2nd round, like Rasanen, because you're getting that player build but with more offensive/skating ability. Kleven was on my short-list of D preferences in the 50 range, but Bob has him ranked in the high 30s on his latest ranking. I get the feeling that a team will view him like Samuelsson and he won't make it past the first ten picks of the 2nd round. If he does, I hope our management team takes a long look because he has the potential to be one of the most punishing defenders to come out of the draft in years. His defensive game, gap, physicality, reads, timing of his hits are all pro. He'll be with UND next year so I expect to see him spread his wings offensively and experiment a bit. He happens to have some of the highest character of the draft from what i've heard.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Chasing role players in the late rounds won't pay dividends over time. You're essentially hoping, in a best case scenario, that they top out as depth pieces who play in a specialized PK role. Just look at the Leafs with Middleton, Nielsen, Mattinen, Greenway, Gordeev, etc. All have busted hard and even if they trended better, you're probably looking at a Ben Harpur type.

I'd much rather swing for that player in the 2nd round, like Rasanen, because you're getting that player build but with more offensive/skating ability. Kleven was on my short-list of D preferences in the 50 range, but Bob has him ranked in the high 30s on his latest ranking. I get the feeling that a team will view him like Samuelsson and he won't make it past the first ten picks of the 2nd round. If he does, I hope our management team takes a long look because he has the potential to be one of the most punishing defenders to come out of the draft in years. His defensive game, gap, physicality, reads, timing of his hits are all pro. He'll be with UND next year so I expect to see him spread his wings offensively and experiment a bit. He happens to have some of the highest character of the draft from what i've heard.

His offense is a major concern but honestly the 2nd round is thin for quality so he'd likely be one of the better guys.

 

[Knies iT]

His offense is a major concern but honestly the 2nd round is thin for quality so he'd likely be one of the better guys.

I agree but his shot could be the saving grace for him offensively. Even if his creativity caps out, which it likely will, he can wire a puck. Similar to Muzzin in that sense. His ability to handle/move the puck under pressure is another issue, but that's usually the case with these big, raw defenders.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I agree but his shot could be the saving grace for him offensively. Even if his creativity caps out, which it likely will, he can wire a puck. Similar to Muzzin in that sense. His ability to handle/move the puck under pressure is another issue, but that's usually the case with these big, raw defenders.

I always thought of him similar to Alex Vlasic from last year. Both were projected high at the beginning of the year but seem to be settling in as more early 2nd round guys due to their lack of offensive ability and typical concerns regarding larger defensemen. Vlasic obviously was on a much better team than Kleven, which is why he has more points, but in general that is the concern.

The more I look at the 2nd round and who could be available, the more I think we should just trade down and try to get a pick in the 60's and then get another mid-3rd round pick or something. I honestly think you could get a guy about as good at 65 and 80 as you can get at 50, but at the same time I can see a team trading away those picks to try and get one of those super high risk skilled wingers, so they may think it is worth it. Maybe they are right, but I like the type and overall package of the prospects in the 3rd round more than many in the 2nd round.

 

[LaPlante94]

Nikishin is still one of my favourites for us with our 2nd/3rd pick. Sounds like he's become a reliable shutdown guy for his KHL club(especially zone entries) and PKer which sounds promising for his age. heard he needs to make decisions faster but that's expected going from a junior league to a mens league. At this point I think we should possibly trade our 2nd round pick and move back since outside the top 15 this draft looks like a crap shoot and that's being generous.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Well people complained all the time about guys like Polak who literally did all of those things. Not many guys play with an edge like that anymore, and those who do are usually not that great and do not really deserve to be playing over better, more skilled defensemen. I forgot to add Donovan Sebrango to that list, but he's also a LD and his stock is inflated due to being a bit of a warrior who will fight. His pure defensive ability is not as high as his ranking dictates IMO. Maybe Jake Ratzlaff and Jeremie Biakabutuka too; Ratzlaff is a 3-star linebacker who is 6'3", 200+ lbs as an 18 year old in high school and Biakabutuka is the son of a former CFLer, so he's massive as well. However neither of them have been noted for their physicality really.

We did not even really roll 4 offensive lines. Our 4th line is defensively sound. Our 3rd line was definitely more of a two-way line than an offensive line as well. The Leafs have drafted great two-way players, but they have chosen not to sign many of them. Stotts being one of them. I guess they prefer to adapt skill guys like Timashov and Moore into skilled grinders who have great puck skills, and I guess guys like Stotts did not have enough of those skills. We can get some energy players in this draft up front, but it is a matter of whether the Leafs really find those kind of guys valuable, and whether they are fine with many of them being energy players more like Kapanen than perhaps a Komarov.

Kerfoot and Spezza are hardly what I would call 2-way or sound defensive players. Neither PK. We also saw that trying to adapt guys like Timashov really didn't work, it was just a watered down bad version of what we had in our top 6 alrady.

I wouldn't aim for Frederik Gauthier either, the upside there was incredibly low.

Chasing role players in the late rounds won't pay dividends over time. You're essentially hoping, in a best case scenario, that they top out as depth pieces who play in a specialized PK role. Just look at the Leafs with Middleton, Nielsen, Mattinen, Greenway, Gordeev, etc. All have busted hard and even if they trended better, you're probably looking at a Ben Harpur type.

I'd much rather swing for that player in the 2nd round, like Rasanen, because you're getting that player build but with more offensive/skating ability. Kleven was on my short-list of D preferences in the 50 range, but Bob has him ranked in the high 30s on his latest ranking. I get the feeling that a team will view him like Samuelsson and he won't make it past the first ten picks of the 2nd round. If he does, I hope our management team takes a long look because he has the potential to be one of the most punishing defenders to come out of the draft in years. His defensive game, gap, physicality, reads, timing of his hits are all pro. He'll be with UND next year so I expect to see him spread his wings offensively and experiment a bit. He happens to have some of the highest character of the draft from what i've heard.

I don't mind going for skill/talent/home run picks in rounds 1-3 at all. I just think in rounds 4-7, be open minded. Odds are low, especially finding a skilled/talented forward that will ever play top 6 minutes. Defenseman in those later rounds seem to be the best value.

I imagine if it is going to happen then Russia is probably where you can find a steal.

Either way, guys, definitely not advocating for *pure* grit, I know it isn't a thing now but I always think you can find room for 2-way or 3rd round guys. Roman Polak in his prime would be welcome on our 3rd pairing any day of the week.

Look at the last few Cup champs, far more grit, better pk & true match up guys. I don't think it'll happen, Dubas seems to prefer trying to force the square peg in a round hole with the Timashov, Spezza's etc in the bottom 6 but I *personally* don't see it as viable.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Kerfoot and Spezza are hardly what I would call 2-way or sound defensive players. Neither PK. We also saw that trying to adapt guys like Timashov really didn't work, it was just a watered down bad version of what we had in our top 6 alrady.

I wouldn't aim for Frederik Gauthier either, the upside there was incredibly low.



I don't mind going for skill/talent/home run picks in rounds 1-3 at all. I just think in rounds 4-7, be open minded. Odds are low, especially finding a skilled/talented forward that will ever play top 6 minutes. Defenseman in those later rounds seem to be the best value.

I imagine if it is going to happen then Russia is probably where you can find a steal.

Either way, guys, definitely not advocating for *pure* grit, I know it isn't a thing now but I always think you can find room for 2-way or 3rd round guys. Roman Polak in his prime would be welcome on our 3rd pairing any day of the week.

Look at the last few Cup champs, far more grit, better pk & true match up guys. I don't think it'll happen, Dubas seems to prefer trying to force the square peg in a round hole with the Timashov, Spezza's etc in the bottom 6 but I *personally* don't see it as viable.

Doing formal analysis on that is on my list of things to do, but I would imagine it would make more sense to target guys with rights that last longer, like Europeans or NCAA, than position.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Doing formal analysis on that is on my list of things to do, but I would imagine it would make more sense to target guys with rights that last longer, like Europeans or NCAA, than position.

I think that definitely helps (NCAA/Euro/Russia) but the Athletic did an analysis a while back. Most top end forward talent is found in the 1st round.

You can find great value on D throughout the draft.

No one knows how to draft goalies.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think that definitely helps (NCAA/Euro/Russia) but the Athletic did an analysis a while back. Most top end forward talent is found in the 1st round.

You can find great value on D throughout the draft.

No one knows how to draft goalies.

I'd limit that to top-end centers. Who are almost mostly found in the top 10 of the draft outside rare exceptions (Kopitar, Giroux, Bergeron, Point, ROR, Getzlaf, Barzal, Kuznetsov, and Aho), and the only one of those guys drafted out of the first two rounds is Point, and Kopitar misses the top 10 cut-off by 1 pick, while Getzlaf, Barzal, and Giroux are both top 25 picks, while Kuznetsov was taken 26 and slipped that late due to the NHL/KHL issues, otherwise he's a top 10 pick . Elite wingers tend to be scattered around the draft too. The amount of the top 20 centers drafted between 1-3 is huge (Crosby, McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Eichel, Seguin, Draisaitl, Stamkos, Tavares, Barkov, Malkin, Toews). Look at the best wingers in the NHL. Stone, Gaudreau, Kucherov, Marchand, and Panarin (undrafted), were all taken after the first round, and outside of Kucherov were all 3rd round or later. Even a lot of guys who don't become franchise number 1 centers but fringe first line center/good 2nd line centers tend to be found in the top 10 (Turris, Duchene, Kadri, Jordan Staal, Horvat, etc). Then you got the young guys drafted top 10, who might become legit franchise #1 centers who have proved a lot but not enough to be labeled that yet, but you can't tell yet like Hischier and PLD, and then someone like J. Hughes

D is just harder to project at that age, so where you find elite #1's tends to be much more scattered. It's much harder to examine someone who creates plays to those who have to be much more reactive when projecting how they will play when the pace of play picks up. You have guys who went top 3 like Doughty and Hedman, but then you have guys who went 2nd round or later like Subban, Duncan Keith, Josi, Giordana (undrafted), Letang, Buf, etc. We got our franchise defender at 5th overall, and a lot of other teams got their guy top 10, but its pretty clear that that high-end D can be found in the 2nd round. I'm not sure if more top wingers or top defenders come after the first 2 rounds.

Doing formal analysis on that is on my list of things to do, but I would imagine it would make more sense to target guys with rights that last longer, like Europeans or NCAA, than position.

That seems to be a strategy teams have adopted past the first 3 rounds, where players are expected to land an ELC. Although, I'd consider moving NCAA guys out of that grouping because if you truly get a great late-blooming NCAA guy, they have a high probability of going the college UFA route like Vesey or implying they would like Adam Fox. The amount of CHLers taken has dramatically stepped back in the last 10 years. Part of that is other regions/leagues are creating talent at a better rate than before, the other is the longer-rights situation. In year one of Dubas we went very heavy CHL, whereas last year we were NA heavy but took guys from the USHL and High-school hockey.

As for the draft, I'm curious if Tristen Robbins is high-up on our draft board. Small and skilled but with a great work ethic and compete similar to Robertson, although one is a late-birthday and the other an early one. Saw he was outside Bob's top 93. I could see him as a guy we target in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

[I am Canadian]

Leafs could have an advantage this draft with less playing time for all teams to see.
Maybe our scouting staff put in better work & we will be able to snag a player that may have risen into the 1st round with more time. Here's hoping!

 

[WTFMAN99]

I'd limit that to top-end centers. Who are almost mostly found in the top 10 of the draft outside rare exceptions (Kopitar, Giroux, Bergeron, Point, ROR, Getzlaf, Barzal, Kuznetsov, and Aho), and the only one of those guys drafted out of the first two rounds is Point, and Kopitar misses the top 10 cut-off by 1 pick, while Getzlaf, Barzal, and Giroux are both top 25 picks, while Kuznetsov was taken 26 and slipped that late due to the NHL/KHL issues, otherwise he's a top 10 pick . Elite wingers tend to be scattered around the draft too. The amount of the top 20 centers drafted between 1-3 is huge (Crosby, McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Eichel, Seguin, Draisaitl, Stamkos, Tavares, Barkov, Malkin, Toews). Look at the best wingers in the NHL. Stone, Gaudreau, Kucherov, Marchand, and Panarin (undrafted), were all taken after the first round, and outside of Kucherov were all 3rd round or later. Even a lot of guys who don't become franchise number 1 centers but fringe first line center/good 2nd line centers tend to be found in the top 10 (Turris, Duchene, Kadri, Jordan Staal, Horvat, etc). Then you got the young guys drafted top 10, who might become legit franchise #1 centers who have proved a lot but not enough to be labeled that yet, but you can't tell yet like Hischier and PLD, and then someone like J. Hughes

D is just harder to project at that age, so where you find elite #1's tends to be much more scattered. It's much harder to examine someone who creates plays to those who have to be much more reactive when projecting how they will play when the pace of play picks up. You have guys who went top 3 like Doughty and Hedman, but then you have guys who went 2nd round or later like Subban, Duncan Keith, Josi, Giordana (undrafted), Letang, Buf, etc. We got our franchise defender at 5th overall, and a lot of other teams got their guy top 10, but its pretty clear that that high-end D can be found in the 2nd round. I'm not sure if more top wingers or top defenders come after the first 2 rounds.


That seems to be a strategy teams have adopted past the first 3 rounds, where players are expected to land an ELC. Although, I'd consider moving NCAA guys out of that grouping because if you truly get a great late-blooming NCAA guy, they have a high probability of going the college UFA route like Vesey or implying they would like Adam Fox. The amount of CHLers taken has dramatically stepped back in the last 10 years. Part of that is other regions/leagues are creating talent at a better rate than before, the other is the longer-rights situation. In year one of Dubas we went very heavy CHL, whereas last year we were NA heavy but took guys from the USHL and High-school hockey.

As for the draft, I'm curious if Tristen Robbins is high-up on our draft board. Small and skilled but with a great work ethic and compete similar to Robertson, although one is a late-birthday and the other an early one. Saw he was outside Bob's top 93. I could see him as a guy we target in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Good points. If you have a chance, give that Athletic article a read. It is about a month old at least I would say at this point but covid timeline makes my memory bad .

 

[weems]

I'd limit that to top-end centers. Who are almost mostly found in the top 10 of the draft outside rare exceptions (Kopitar, Giroux, Bergeron, Point, ROR, Getzlaf, Barzal, Kuznetsov, and Aho), and the only one of those guys drafted out of the first two rounds is Point, and Kopitar misses the top 10 cut-off by 1 pick, while Getzlaf, Barzal, and Giroux are both top 25 picks, while Kuznetsov was taken 26 and slipped that late due to the NHL/KHL issues, otherwise he's a top 10 pick . Elite wingers tend to be scattered around the draft too. The amount of the top 20 centers drafted between 1-3 is huge (Crosby, McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Eichel, Seguin, Draisaitl, Stamkos, Tavares, Barkov, Malkin, Toews). Look at the best wingers in the NHL. Stone, Gaudreau, Kucherov, Marchand, and Panarin (undrafted), were all taken after the first round, and outside of Kucherov were all 3rd round or later. Even a lot of guys who don't become franchise number 1 centers but fringe first line center/good 2nd line centers tend to be found in the top 10 (Turris, Duchene, Kadri, Jordan Staal, Horvat, etc). Then you got the young guys drafted top 10, who might become legit franchise #1 centers who have proved a lot but not enough to be labeled that yet, but you can't tell yet like Hischier and PLD, and then someone like J. Hughes

D is just harder to project at that age, so where you find elite #1's tends to be much more scattered. It's much harder to examine someone who creates plays to those who have to be much more reactive when projecting how they will play when the pace of play picks up. You have guys who went top 3 like Doughty and Hedman, but then you have guys who went 2nd round or later like Subban, Duncan Keith, Josi, Giordana (undrafted), Letang, Buf, etc. We got our franchise defender at 5th overall, and a lot of other teams got their guy top 10, but its pretty clear that that high-end D can be found in the 2nd round. I'm not sure if more top wingers or top defenders come after the first 2 rounds.


That seems to be a strategy teams have adopted past the first 3 rounds, where players are expected to land an ELC. Although, I'd consider moving NCAA guys out of that grouping because if you truly get a great late-blooming NCAA guy, they have a high probability of going the college UFA route like Vesey or implying they would like Adam Fox. The amount of CHLers taken has dramatically stepped back in the last 10 years. Part of that is other regions/leagues are creating talent at a better rate than before, the other is the longer-rights situation. In year one of Dubas we went very heavy CHL, whereas last year we were NA heavy but took guys from the USHL and High-school hockey.

As for the draft, I'm curious if Tristen Robbins is high-up on our draft board. Small and skilled but with a great work ethic and compete similar to Robertson, although one is a late-birthday and the other an early one. Saw he was outside Bob's top 93. I could see him as a guy we target in the 2nd or 3rd round.

I like Robins.
He was 11th in the CHL for 5v5 goals
He was 11th in the CHL for primary assists 5v5
He was 6th in the CHL for PP goals
He was 8th in the CHL for shots per game

He did that while routinely playing against some of the better defensive teams in the CHL.

Hybrid offensive talent whos both a good shooter but also shows strong play making ability.

Not afraid to take the body and go to the dirty areas to score.