Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - Looking Ahead to 2020

[SeaOfBlue]

So this means if we win the lottery and get knocked out in the play in we could have Lafreniere?

Yes, if a placeholder wins Phase 1 and we win Phase 2.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

if the "resuming teams" win the 1st overall pick and we're knocked out by Columbus, we would have a 12.5% chance at getting him. Equal to all the other play-in losers.

Only if a placeholder team wins Phase 1, which is better odds than Detroit gets. A continuing team has a 22% chance of winning #1, but of course it is split over 8 teams.

So each losing team gets like a 2.5% chance of winning #1 as of right now.

 

[Stephen]

So wild. Does the second draft lottery apply to the top seeded teams not playing the by round?

 

[Byron Bitz]

We got a shot at Lafreniere, that’s great news

 

[TheBeastCoast]

So lets just lose to the Jackets. I am good with not going for the Covid cup and potentially picking up Lafreniere as a result lol

 

[DcW]

Can someone explain the answer?

just kidding, thanks for the Work you put into that, much appreciated!

Well the answer is pretty obvious: They'd have to get into the top 10. It's not a lottery protected pick; it's a top 10 protected pick. As of right now, no matter what happens, there are 9 teams that would rank lower than the Leafs: The bottom 7 teams not making the playoffs at all, and the losers of 8v9 and 7v10 in the West (we are ranked higher than all except the top 6 teams in the West). So at best, if the Leafs lose to Columbus and all other teams ranked below them (so Florida, Montreal, Rangers, Chicago, Arizona), they would be 10th worst. According to Tankathon, we would have an 11.4% chance of being in the top 3 (which I believe includes the 3.5% chance of getting 1st overall), but you also have to take into account that the teams below us could also win.

Tankathon | 2020 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

Now to do some stats. First of all, top 3 percentage is typically non-mutually exclusive. That is to say, your chances of getting into the Top 3 are impacted by other events (in this case, which team win the lottery or get into the top 3 themselves). However, I am going to assume that Tankathon's percentages takes every possibly event into account when it was calculated, so even if #15 were to win for example, your chances of getting into the top 3 would still be 11.4% since that possibility was already taken into account when calculating the odds of #10 making it into the top 10. Essentially, I am assuming that Tankathon's Top 3 percentages are mutually exclusive.

As I said, the best lottery odds the Leafs can get are 10th, but we can also finish 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th or 15th and still be in the lottery. 10th is slightly different than the rest in terms of keeping our top 10 pick however since as long as no team below us wins, we don't need to win ourselves to keep our pick. In the cases or 11th-15th, we would need to win to keep our pick (as there would be no other way for us to move into the top 10). Luckily for us, since the percentages are mutually exclusive, it is just as they are listed on the Tankathon website. For 10th, we need to do some more math. These are all of the possible events in which the Leafs could stay in the top 10:

Case 1: Leafs get into the top 3, which is just as listed on the website. No math required.
OR
Case 2: No team below the Leafs wins if the Leafs do not win. Math required.

To calculate Case 2, let's first begin with the probability the Leafs fall out of the top 10 given they finish at #10. First, some initial known variables:
P(Leafs win the top 3 lottery) = 0.114
P(11th win the top 3 lottery) = 0.098
P(12th win the top 3 lottery) = 0.082
P(13th win the top 3 lottery) = 0.066
P(14th win the top 3 lottery) = 0.05
P(15th win the top 3 lottery) = 0.033

Next, let's outline what we want to calculate:
P(out of top 10|they finish 10th) = P(Leafs lose top 3 lottery) * P(at least one of the other teams below them wins the top 3 lottery).

*Note: In stats, when you want say "event 1 and event 2 happen", you multiply their probabilities together, hence the * between the two probabilities.

We don't know either of those variables, but it is easy to calcuate P(Leafs lose top 3 lottery):
P(Leafs lose top 3 lottery) = 1 - P(Leafs win top 3 lottery) = 1 - 0.114 = 0.886. So an 88.6% chance of the Leafs losing the top 3 lottery.

The other one is a little bit trickier, but still reasonably easy to calculate:
P(at least one of the other teams below them wins the top 3 lottery) = 1 - P(none of them win the top 3 lottery) = 1 - [(1-P(11th wins top 3 lottery)) * (1-P(12th wins top 3 lottery)) * (1-P(13th wins top 3 lottery)) * (1-P(14th wins top 3 lottery)) * (1-P(15th wins top 3 lottery))] = 1 - [(1-0.098)*(1-0.082)*(1-0.066)*(1-0.05)*(1-0.033)] = 1-(0.709) = 0.291. So there is a 29.1% chance at least one team right below them wins the lottery.

Finally, since we have all of the numbers, just plug it back into the original equation:
P(out of top 10|they finish 10th) = P(Leafs lose top 3 lottery) * P(at least one of the other teams below them wins the top 3 lottery) = 0.886 * 0.291 ~= 0.258.
OR
P(in top 10|they finish 10th) = 1 - P(out of top 10|they finish 10th) = 1- 0.258 = 0.742.

So if my math is correct, they have a 74.2% chance of staying in the top 10 (and therefore keeping their pick) if they finish in 10th.

To summarize:

Lottery Position	Probability of Keeping pick
10th	74.2%
11th	9.8%
12th	8.2%
13th	6.6%
14th	5%
15th	3.3%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I don't think it will get any clearer than that. A good chunk of this explanation is not even needed if you understand probability, but not everyone does, so this can be a reference for everyone.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Can someone explain the answer?

just kidding, thanks for the Work you put into that, much appreciated!

Well throw it out the window. Doesn't apply anymore.

But thanks

 

[facelessjoe1990]

who would we likely take if we got 2nd overall? I would take Byfield.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

who would we likely take if we got 2nd overall? I would take Byfield.

I would trade down one or two spots and take Drysdale.

Since there are teams that probably want someone like Byfield desperately, we would get a haul.

 

[IPS]

We got a shot at Lafreniere, that’s great news

If the freakish scenario of us winning Lafreniere actually happened, I really do wonder how everything would transpire.

Is there a young elite RHD somewhere around the league that we could trade Marner for?

 

[daethfromabove1979]

This setup seems insane. As far as I’m concerned we are in the playoffs, but we still have a chance to win the lottery too? That’s a sweet deal.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This setup seems insane. As far as I’m concerned we are in the playoffs, but we still have a chance to win the lottery too? That’s a sweet deal.

Well I would wait until we win the play-in before classifying ourselves as "in the playoffs".

 

[Canada4Gold]

This setup seems insane. As far as I’m concerned we are in the playoffs, but we still have a chance to win the lottery too? That’s a sweet deal.

Not really, it's an either or. You lose the play in and you have a ~9% chance at a top 3 pick. You win the play in and you don't have any chance. Those odds will also change after the lottery part 1. If no placeholders win then we've already lost the lottery before the play in even happens. If all 3 go to placeholders(unlikely) then you're looking at 37.5% chance of picking top 3 if you lose the play in, and again 0 if you win.

 

[Byron Bitz]

If the freakish scenario of us winning Lafreniere actually happened, I really do wonder how everything would transpire.

Is there a young elite RHD somewhere around the league that we could trade Marner for?

I would rather trade someone else for a RHD. I honestly believe Marner is a future heart trophy winner.

 

[stickty111]

I would rather trade someone else for a RHD. I honestly believe Marner is a future heart trophy winner.

Matthews has a higher chance then Marner to win the award.

 

[Papi 4 Hart]

There is a small probability there even is a phase 2 since the phase 1 teams can hold the share of lottery balls and if all 3 picks are allocated to the phase 1 team then there is no phase 2.

I'd rather just try and compete for the cup which we have a higher probability of winning than getting Lafrenierre.

 

[Canada4Gold]

There is a small probability there even is a phase 2 since the phase 1 teams can hold the share of lottery balls and if all 3 picks are allocated to the phase 1 team then there is no phase 2.

I'd rather just try and compete for the cup which we have a higher probability of winning than getting Lafrenierre.

The odds of there being a phase 2 is at least 60.15%. For there not to be a phase two 3 teams from the top 7 would have to win. The odds of that happening in round 1 is 75.5%. However 1 of those teams winning removes those combinations from play which then lowers the chance it happens on subsequent picks. Worst case scenario that's Buffalo's 6.5% and the odds of of a top 6 team winning 2nd pick is 69/93.5 = 73.8%. The worst case for the 3rd pick is NJ winning which removes their 7.5% which leaves the odds of a top 5 team winning to be 61.5/86 = 71.5%. Multiplying those 3 percentages out shows the odds of all 3 happening would be 39.844% which leaves about 60.15% for 1 of those picks to win. Which only gets very slightly higher when you factor in a higher percentage team like Ottawa or Detroit is way more likely to win an early draw. The same math using Ottawa and Detroit wins would leave the odds at about 65.5%. So it's somewhere between 60.15% and 65.5%.

I doubt anyone's rooting for us to lose to get the pick, but it's an interesting side potential if we do lose, especially since we'll know when the play in starts if there are any picks up for grabs for the loser.

 

[Gabriel426]

Two things need to happen, Leafs lose to BJs and Arizona advances in the play-in. That’s the two prime condition for Leafs to win the lottery.
Personally, I would rather Leafs winning the Cup.

 

[TML1967]

Two things need to happen, Leafs lose to BJs and Arizona advances in the play-in. That’s the two prime condition for Leafs to win the lottery.
Personally, I would rather Leafs winning the Cup.

Sorry just starting to look at all this. How does Arizona specifically help the Leafs the most?

 

[Gabriel426]

Sorry just starting to look at all this. How does Arizona specifically help the Leafs the most?

Taylor Hall, he is a magnet for his team to get First overall pick.

 

[Maplebeasts]

I can not believe the people here who want to lose for a shot at Lafreniere. It seems they'd much rather have good prospects than a good team lol.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I can not believe the people here who want to lose for a shot at Lafreniere. It seems they'd much rather have good prospects than a good team lol.

Yea it's weird here.

Who cares if we win games as long as we have 1st round picks..

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yea it's weird here.

Who cares if we win games as long as we have 1st round picks..

It is also like they don't realize we lose our 1st round pick next year instead.

As it stands right now, we are looking at losing 19th overall (assuming we win the play-in but don't make it to the Conference Finals), which has some decent defenders, but for the most part are either wingers or undersized centers who will likely need to become wingers. It's not a trash draft, but essentially we may lose another Bjornfot-level prospect. The good news is that unless we make it really far in the playoffs (Conference Finals or later), the next major drop off after 15 is probably not until after our 2nd round pick, so we can get a guy who is about as good as the 19th overall guy with our 2nd round pick.

Next year (keeping in mind that things can change in a year) there is not really a headliner prospect or nearly as deep of a top 10-15, but there is quality that runs into the late 1st, and it is mostly guys who can legitimately play center while having about as many quality options on defense as in 2020. Not many great wingers, but the Leafs don't really need wingers, especially since they'll likely take advantage of a pretty deep wing group and their many late round picks in the 2020 draft to restock some depth.

 

[Byron Bitz]

who would we likely take if we got 2nd overall? I would take Byfield.

Drysdale, these are my rankings:
Lafreniere
Drysdale
Byfield
Stutzle
Rossi
Perfetti
Raymond
Sanderson
Holtz
Lundell

 

[hockeynorth]

Right now I have:

1. Lafreniere
2. Byfield
3. Stutzle
4. Raymond
5. Lundell
6. Drysdale
7. Askarov
8. Holtz
9. Rossi
10. Perfetti

I change my top 10 so much lol