Interesting, so we should see a greater increase in hospitalizations and ICU in the coming days and weeks as the cases continue to increase
Yes, provided the cases increase. As of right now we saw one giant leap over the course of a couple weeks but now we have experienced a flattening of daily cases to about a 1:1 ratio. We may see a higher percentage of ICU beds used in relation to hospitalizations because patients that go to ICU stay in hospital longer.
If we see cases rise, we will see more hospitalizations and ICU care and obviously more death. However, if the daily case count does not rise and stays constant at between 600 and 700 cases daily, we should see relatively similar hospitalization and ICU bed usage.
However, related to the first wave, we won’t see the same sorts of hospitalizations, ICU care or deaths. The numbers right now are showing that. Right now we are seeing approximately 500% reduction in hospitalizations per positive test compared to early April when the positive tests were similar to what we are seeing today.
The underlying point is positive. The primary goal is death prevention first and foremost. Secondary goal is stress on the health care system. Third, is the overall health of the population with respect to infection.
When you consider there is a 500% reduction in hospitalizations and ICU beds used today vs the beginning of April, that is a positive result.
Conclusion. Pick your poison. Either the additional testing is resulting in the identification of more infections (mild and asymptomatic) compared to the beginning of April (meaning when there were 5000 positive cases it means there were a considerable amount of cases undiagnosed compared to now) OR we are doing better at protecting the vulnerable which is resulting in less hospitalizations. It is probably a strong combination of both. To what degree? I can’t say. I don’t think anyone really can.
In the end, 600 positive cases today vs 600 positive cases in April do not net the same dire outcomes. There has to be a way to properly weight that and use it in decision making, including the operation of many businesses including the Ontario Hockey League.