Next Season (COVID-19 Discussion Thread) [Part 2]

[Otto]

At the end of the day this will be a giant chess game.

Yes there's time to hopefully see this improve but hurdles like social distancing, building capacities, teams quarantining will all need to be put in place first before we see ice in OHL buildings. The QMJHL is a small scale measuring stick on how the OHL and WHL handle things.

With close to 4 months away from the expected start date this gives the OHL time to draw up a finalized version of precautionary measures and plans for the December 1st start date. I'm sure the OHL and WHL are watching closely how the QMJHL is handling the situation and is preparing for the December start dates for both leagues.

If the league starts I believe that the OHL will have only STHs in the stands and direction markers in place for buildings on top of what the league has already announced. The next 16 or so weeks will be critical for the OHL season to start.

4 months??? Try less than 2

 

[Otto]

Will not happen divisions will stay the same as they've always been the OHL hasn't announced anything concrete but 6 divisions were nor talked about realigning the divisions for the season.

Talks had happened 2-3 weeks ago involving all the teams, and from Owen Sound GM DD stated that we will see no cross-conference games for 2020-21 nor overnight trips. Now from what you stated Owen Sound and Barrie are a lot closer to each other.

If the divisions were to realign for a season of would look closer to this.

Owen Sound, Barrie, Guelph, Kitchener,
London, Sarnia, Windsor
Hamilton, Niagara, Erie
Kingston, Oshawa, Ottawa, Peterborough
Erie, Saginaw, Flint
N. Bay, Sudbury, SSM
.

I'm assuming you meant to put Mississauga in with Hamilton and Niagara, and not Erie

 

[Otto]

All I can say is this could easily turn into a Realignment Discussion topic really quick.

IMO, I understand the no overnight road trips but I don’t see that as viable. I think you can minimize that by Inter-Conference schedules but the kids still need to attend school in some manner.

I believe the Gatineau Olympiques played Val D’Or in Val D’Or back to back days to start the season. Same with Drummondville in Rouyn-Noranda. I can see this sort of option in the OHL.

In a 68 game (revised divisional) schedule, Ottawa would visit Oshawa 11 times. That’s 11 days where the 67’s would have a 4 hour bus ride to Oshawa, followed by a 5 hour game time frame and then another 4 hours back to Ottawa. That’s a 13 hour day for one game 11 times. Peterborough is 3.5 hours away. So that’s another eleven 12 hour days.

If that game in Oshawa is at 6pm, they will be on the bus at Noon-1PM and return home at 1:30am...and that’s not home. That’s the parking lot. From there they still need to actually get home In their cars.

If it is conference based and not small divisionally based, those trips get worse with no overnights. The other 5 teams are further away than Oshawa. That would be about 28 Individual 12-16 hour road trips.

When will the kids be able to do schoolwork? They’ll be exhausted and will probably not do much practising.

The schedule would need to be significantly reduced or they’ll need to do some overnights. I don’t see any way around it. The outlier teams will be seriously impacted with travel beyond reasonable acceptance.

If you want to keep the kids healthy, don’t run them ragged on continual gruelling bus rides. If that is the only option, just scrap the season. The quality of the hockey will be shit.

There is no way they do this without the small division format. Not a chance. Also, I believe it has been confirmed that the students were told to register for online learning.

 

[AttackSound]

I'm assuming you meant to put Mississauga in with Hamilton and Niagara, and not Erie

Yes you are correct.

 

[OMG67]

There is no way they do this without the small division format. Not a chance. Also, I believe it has been confirmed that the students were told to register for online learning.

Point being, I cannot see Ottawa doing single day road trips 34 times. The hockey would be garbage by the end of the season. Even if the furthest they go is Oshawa, like I said, 2/3 of their road games would be 12-13 hour days with travel...assuming all of their games are against 3 teams.

From a competition standpoint, I can see smaller divisions with a concentration of games within their division. I don’t think their whole schedule will be intra-Division though. I still think they will play conference games.

Also, I think some teams like Ottawa and Sault will be granted overnight road trips to help reduce travel and the impact it has on time management. Other teams may also be able to do the Ottawa trip with an overnight. I think the emphasis will be on one day road trips and much less overnight trips but I don’t think it is practical to eliminate them.

We’ll see what happens. Like you have said, this is all speculation at this point because no return to play documents have been provided.

 

[AttackSound]

I'm assuming you meant to put Mississauga in with Hamilton and Niagara, and not Erie

Minor grammatical error of late night typing.

But yes you are correct those smaller divisional clusters would make for the best option for the teams as they're all fairly geographically closer to each other and it would be easier to isolate players between games. This also would allow for the U.S. based teams to play and have fan support and not have to relocate to another location.

Not saying that the option that the league is discussing isn't going to be something similar to what the NHL used for the playoffs but if the league truly wants to play smaller divisional bubbles are the way to go I think. Will see what happens when the league gets going.

 

[EvenSteven]

I think it makes sense to have back to back road games on each road stop when it makes sense. (the Ottawa/Oshawa trip mentioned above for example).

My company has had crews in motels all summer all over Ontario (Comfort Inn level) and there is zero issue regarding isolation etc. The rooms are disinfected totally before we move in. No “in room” maid service. Mandatory mask and social distancing inside the motel, etc etc.

Costs are another issue I suppose but there is virtually no threat of picking up the virus as a result of overnight stays in motels. You have more of a chance of picking up the virus at a grocery store than in a motel.

 

[Otto]

Smh....

 

[Generalsupdates]

Training camp is supposed to start in 42 days....

 

[OMG67]

Smh....

If we try to find a positive, the numbers are not going upward. They seem to be holding at around 600. That means the R-Naught is 1 over the course of most of the last week. If that number stays the same for an extended period, it is positive. This is compared to the doubling rate of every 3-4 days which was a potential last week when we started to see the larger spikes.

It would be even better if we saw a reduction but I don’t see that happening very soon.

The one thing that may start to be more prevalent is the number of people a person knows with the Virus and how that may impact people’s behaviour patterns. For example, I hadn’t known one person to get it until just this week. He is a younger person in his mid-20’s. As that age group starts to know more people with the Virus, it may make them more respectful of the precautions.

 

[Fischhaber]

If we try to find a positive, the numbers are not going upward. They seem to be holding at around 600. That means the R-Naught is 1 over the course of most of the last week. If that number stays the same for an extended period, it is positive. This is compared to the doubling rate of every 3-4 days which was a potential last week when we started to see the larger spikes.

It would be even better if we saw a reduction but I don’t see that happening very soon.

The one thing that may start to be more prevalent is the number of people a person knows with the Virus and how that may impact people’s behaviour patterns. For example, I hadn’t known one person to get it until just this week. He is a younger person in his mid-20’s. As that age group starts to know more people with the Virus, it may make them more respectful of the precautions.

The second wave is a lot more restricted to certain areas so far as well. Ottawa, Mississauga, and Oshawa remain extremely problematic and out of control, but places like Windsor are doing a much better job this time around. Credit to that city for their positive efforts. Hopefully the others can take some lessons from them.

 

[rangersblues]

Since everything is on the table for this season, is it possible the OHL converts to a league where practices become more of a priority and the schedule gets drastically reduced for a season. That way travel (and costs) is reduced and players are more able to stay in their bubbles.

 

[Otto]

The second wave is a lot more restricted to certain areas so far as well. Ottawa, Mississauga, and Oshawa remain extremely problematic and out of control, but places like Windsor are doing a much better job this time around. Credit to that city for their positive efforts. Hopefully the others can take some lessons from them.

I'm assuming a big part of this is because the seasonal workers have left the country

 

[OMG67]

Since everything is on the table for this season, is it possible the OHL converts to a league where practices become more of a priority and the schedule gets drastically reduced for a season. That way travel (and costs) is reduced and players are more able to stay in their bubbles.

I would consider that a positive alternative.

When you consider how problematic winter is with respect to travel, it is not like the league can back weight the schedule either. If they are slating the Memorial Cup for June, that means the OHL playoffs would need to start mid-April. The weather is sketchy in Ontario through mid-March.

 

[OMG67]

The second wave is a lot more restricted to certain areas so far as well. Ottawa, Mississauga, and Oshawa remain extremely problematic and out of control, but places like Windsor are doing a much better job this time around. Credit to that city for their positive efforts. Hopefully the others can take some lessons from them.

I would hazard using the term “out of control.” The numbers still show only around 1-2% of the entire Province has tested positive. Keep in mind also that the tests administered have increased tremendously. I’d be interested to see how many tests per thousand are being administered per region.

 

[ohloutsider]

I'm assuming a big part of this is because the seasonal workers have left the country

No they are still here in droves, this is harvest season for a number of crops in this area. They have done a good job of getting a handle on the problem in that sector.

 

[Otto]

No they are still here in droves, this is harvest season for a number of crops in this area. They have done a good job of getting a handle on the problem in that sector.

I stand corrected... thanks!

 

[Fischhaber]

I would hazard using the term “out of control.” The numbers still show only around 1-2% of the entire Province has tested positive. Keep in mind also that the tests administered have increased tremendously. I’d be interested to see how many tests per thousand are being administered per region.

I think it's an appropriate term in relation to the rest of the province, where things are very much under control. They gave up on contact tracing in Toronto because there is so much unknown spread. Hopefully people in these communities can start to take this seriously so that the rest of us who are doing our part can see OHL hockey as soon as possible.

 

[Generalsupdates]

The second wave is a lot more restricted to certain areas so far as well. Ottawa, Mississauga, and Oshawa remain extremely problematic and out of control, but places like Windsor are doing a much better job this time around. Credit to that city for their positive efforts. Hopefully the others can take some lessons from them.

Lol what? Oshawa has 16 active cases for a population of almost 200,000 (Power BI Report).

 

[Nerf27]

The second wave is a lot more restricted to certain areas so far as well. Ottawa, Mississauga, and Oshawa remain extremely problematic and out of control, but places like Windsor are doing a much better job this time around. Credit to that city for their positive efforts. Hopefully the others can take some lessons from them.

We all your narrative making it seem Memorial Cup can’t possibly be held in Oshawa. Due some fact checking Oshawa has like 16 active cases for a large population. Durham region is not just Oshawa.

 

[Fischhaber]

If Covid was going to decide the Cup bid then it would have already been decided. There isn't going to be a season at all if cases don't go down. That's why I noted the league's 3 hardest hit communities. Niagara is also seeing a spike as well.

 

[Nerf27]

If Covid was going to decide the Cup bid then it would have already been decided. There isn't going to be a season at all if cases don't go down. That's why I noted the league's 3 hardest hit communities. Niagara is also seeing a spike as well.

Again Oshawa is not even on the radar of being a hard it community.

 

[Generalsupdates]

Again Oshawa is not even on the radar of being a hard it community.

facts aren’t important, apparently

 

[rangersblues]

Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't Covid cases reported by a region's health unit and not city by city. Oshawa is part of Durham Region.

 

[OHLTG]

Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't Covid cases reported by a region's health unit and not city by city. Oshawa is part of Durham Region.

Depends on the health unit. I know the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit talks about cases for Windsor and the county but also provide city-by-city stats.