Next Season (COVID-19 Discussion Thread) [Part 2]

[MatthewsMoustache]

So.... not only has the OHL not officially asked for money yet.... they haven't even submitted a plan....

How do they expect the American teams to sort out their stuff when they haven’t even submitted a plan 45 days before camps are set to begin.

 

[Otto]

 

[OMG67]

Not surprising. I assume that was an off the record comment.

Yes, but it was also just an opinion based on his personal instincts of conversations and current status etc. It is not formal in any way.

 

[OMG67]

Time to shut it down and get some provincial money for the 17 teams

I agree 100%.

I think the OHL is letting the Province tie a knot so they can corner them for support $$$.

If they can get the Province on the record for essentially not allowing the sport to be played, regardless of any sort of SOP submission, it will be very difficult for the Province to refuse support.

As it stands right now:
1> No Fighting
2> No body checking
3> No fans

I cannot see any sort of resolution.

The next issue would be NHL. If the Province doesn’t allow body checking for the OHL, would it allow it for the NHL? Doubtful. This means the NHL would need another bubble situation and I am reasonably sure the NHL will simply not start their season.

The only caveat is tracking hospitalizations and deaths. If by mid-November we are seeing 500-1000 cases per day but relatively little hospitalizations and death, MAYBE the position would change and they may loosen the reigns a little. That’s still a big “IF” though.

 

[Otto]

The only caveat is tracking hospitalizations and deaths. If by mid-November we are seeing 500-1000 cases per day but relatively little hospitalizations and death, MAYBE the position would change and they may loosen the reigns a little. That’s still a big “IF” though.

Given that they have frozen any new measures for 28 days.. and this was before the cases reached 700 ... and that some regions have rolled back on some restrictions... I would be shocked if anything changed for the positive regarding openings until the cases dipped back down below 300 regardless of deaths and hospitalizations. We've seen how the government operates, they are not about to change their course.

 

[OMG67]

Given that they have frozen any new measures for 28 days.. and this was before the cases reached 700 ... and that some regions have rolled back on some restrictions... I would be shocked if anything changed for the positive regarding openings until the cases dipped back down below 300 regardless of deaths and hospitalizations. We've seen how the government operates, they are not about to change their course.

I feel the same way.

I am holding out hope they do factor hospitalizations and death into the equation. They have said they do. I am not too sure if they truly do or not.

I do think there is political wiggle room for them to take that stance. They can spin it suggesting they have managed to protect the vast majority of the vulnerable by protecting the LTC facilities etc. They can state those that feel more vulnerable have made changes in their day to day lives to protect themselves. They’ve also provided enough financial support to allow the vulnerable to protect themselves.

I think they have sort of done enough to end up with the results we are hoping for (low hospitalizations and deaths). If they spin it the right way, they can actually make it look like a win. “Our processes and procedures are working. We do see a lot of infections but that is because of the younger people not following protocol. We have managed to protect the most vulnerable and prevented thousands of deaths.” They can find a way to make that work. Of course, that depends solely on whether they can keep the hospitalizations and deaths down well below the spring.

With respect to how this affects the OHL or Professional Sports in general? Who knows. I think that is still going to be a hard spin. The leagues are going to have to figure out a way to play with relatively little fan support if any at all. I think that is still the best case scenario.

 

[Otto]

Stand by....

 

[AttackBeacher]

 

[AttackBeacher]

Ontario premier announces new COVID-19 restrictions after record spike in cases

he Ontario government is actively considering new regional restrictions and province-wide measures to curb the spread of COVID-19 that would affect some restaurants, bars, banquets halls and gyms, CTV News Toronto has learned.

"This is the final thing we can do before moving to Stage 2," the source told CTV News Toronto on the condition they not be named in order to discuss internal deliberations.

 

[sbpointer]

Stand by....

See you guys back at the Bud in September.... Hopefully

 

[Otto]

 

[MatthewsMoustache]

 

[IcemanTBI]

I see maybe a 10% chance the OHL starts this year. Too many hurdles. WHL is in the same boat. QMJHL is set to start today, but frankly I will be shocked if they get through to November with the high case load currently in Quebec. As many stated, it will cost owners less to simply scrap the season than play with no fans or limited capacity. Even with the new restrictions put in place today by Ford, I doubt it will be enough to lower the case load, which seems to be the only thing they are looking at. I expect cases to keep rising and by November the entire province will be back to stage 2. That will force the OHL to push back the start of camps and start of the season. Unless we see some dramatic decreases in numbers over the next 28 days, this season is dead on arrival.

 

[OMG67]

I see maybe a 10% chance the OHL starts this year. Too many hurdles. WHL is in the same boat. QMJHL is set to start today, but frankly I will be shocked if they get through to November with the high case load currently in Quebec. As many stated, it will cost owners less to simply scrap the season than play with no fans or limited capacity. Even with the new restrictions put in place today by Ford, I doubt it will be enough to lower the case load, which seems to be the only thing they are looking at. I expect cases to keep rising and by November the entire province will be back to stage 2. That will force the OHL to push back the start of camps and start of the season. Unless we see some dramatic decreases in numbers over the next 28 days, this season is dead on arrival.

Ford didn't really put in any restrictions. All he did was make municipal restrictions consistent across the Province. Most of everything announced already are the restrictions locally.

 

[Otto]

 

[OMG67]

QMJHL underway with 8 games completed yesterday and 6 completed/underway today.

It will be interesting to see what ends up happening. If they are able to play and keep things safe for a couple months, it will be tough for the Province of Ontario to justify holding back. Conversely, if there are any significant issues, you know the Province will point a finger and it will be GAME OVER.

 

[Otto]

QMJHL underway with 8 games completed yesterday and 6 completed/underway today.

It will be interesting to see what ends up happening. If they are able to play and keep things safe for a couple months, it will be tough for the Province of Ontario to justify holding back. Conversely, if there are any significant issues, you know the Province will point a finger and it will be GAME OVER.

A few differences. 1- The Q recieved $20 million from the Provincial Government... no guarantee that the OHL will receive any money, considering they haven't formally asked for any yet ( or even submitted a plan to return to play) and 2- The Q doesn't have American teams to contend with

 

[Otto]

OHL season could look a lot different

 

[MatthewsMoustache]

FWIW in terms of no contact, there was a tournament run last weekend in Vaughan featuring mostly OHL players. They played 5 on 5 no contact and IMHO it didn’t really change much for me. It’s obviously not the same as
an actual OHL game but it’s about as close as it gets at the moment.

Here’s the youtube link if anyone’s interested in watching some (games were played September 25-27):

https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCHkEPmmaRf4EoTKdV-NV7Bg/videos

 

[AttackSound]

At the end of the day this will be a giant chess game.

Yes there's time to hopefully see this improve but hurdles like social distancing, building capacities, teams quarantining will all need to be put in place first before we see ice in OHL buildings. The QMJHL is a small scale measuring stick on how the OHL and WHL handle things.

With close to 4 months away from the expected start date this gives the OHL time to draw up a finalized version of precautionary measures and plans for the December 1st start date. I'm sure the OHL and WHL are watching closely how the QMJHL is handling the situation and is preparing for the December start dates for both leagues.

If the league starts I believe that the OHL will have only STHs in the stands and direction markers in place for buildings on top of what the league has already announced. The next 16 or so weeks will be critical for the OHL season to start.

 

[HockeyPops]

London Free Press (Blogs): OHL would like close-to-normal return, but it's looking less likely.
OHL would like close-to-normal return, but it's looking less likely | London Free Press

 

[MatthewsMoustache]

London Free Press (Blogs): OHL would like close-to-normal return, but it's looking less likely.
OHL would like close-to-normal return, but it's looking less likely | London Free Press

Some of the big takeaways are that they do in fact have multiple schedules set out and that "bubble divisions" are very possible to start. Assuming the divisions are going to be similar in size to the US one, they could have something like:

Erie/Flint/Saginaw
London/Windsor/Sarnia
Kitchener/Guelph/Owen Sound
Soo/North Bay/Sudbury
Mississauga/Hamilton/Niagara/Barrie
Kingston/Ottawa/Peterborough/Oshawa

It seems a bit ridiculous to play the same 2-3 teams possibly all year, but if they really want to play, this might just have to be the reality for now.

 

[AttackSound]

Some of the big takeaways are that they do in fact have multiple schedules set out and that "bubble divisions" are very possible to start. Assuming the divisions are going to be similar in size to the US one, they could have something like:

Erie/Flint/Saginaw
London/Windsor/Sarnia
Kitchener/Guelph/Owen Sound
Soo/North Bay/Sudbury
Mississauga/Hamilton/Niagara/Barrie
Kingston/Ottawa/Peterborough/Oshawa

It seems a bit ridiculous to play the same 2-3 teams possibly all year, but if they really want to play, this might just have to be the reality for now.

Will not happen divisions will stay the same as they've always been the OHL hasn't announced anything concrete but 6 divisions were nor talked about realigning the divisions for the season.

Talks had happened 2-3 weeks ago involving all the teams, and from Owen Sound GM DD stated that we will see no cross-conference games for 2020-21 nor overnight trips. Now from what you stated Owen Sound and Barrie are a lot closer to each other.

If the divisions were to realign for a season of would look closer to this.

Owen Sound, Barrie, Guelph, Kitchener,
London, Sarnia, Windsor
Hamilton, Niagara, Mississauga
Kingston, Oshawa, Ottawa, Peterborough
Erie, Saginaw, Flint
N. Bay, Sudbury, SSM

Unfortunately the only divisions that wouldn't change would be the east too much cause of Ottawa.

Even playing every other day which is likely to happen that till leaves the question of if so what weeks will be home weeks for teams and which will be road weeks cause you can't deny that the league will be pressing to test teams regularly and quarantine players if the have tested positive which means does the league increase the player cards for teams to accommodate those each players who maybe stuck not playing and isolated waiting for some player to show positive signs to this virus. So even though that's likely close to what the league will likely be looking at theres really no answer to what will be the final answer by the league.

 

[OMG67]

All I can say is this could easily turn into a Realignment Discussion topic really quick.

IMO, I understand the no overnight road trips but I don’t see that as viable. I think you can minimize that by Inter-Conference schedules but the kids still need to attend school in some manner.

I believe the Gatineau Olympiques played Val D’Or in Val D’Or back to back days to start the season. Same with Drummondville in Rouyn-Noranda. I can see this sort of option in the OHL.

In a 68 game (revised divisional) schedule, Ottawa would visit Oshawa 11 times. That’s 11 days where the 67’s would have a 4 hour bus ride to Oshawa, followed by a 5 hour game time frame and then another 4 hours back to Ottawa. That’s a 13 hour day for one game 11 times. Peterborough is 3.5 hours away. So that’s another eleven 12 hour days.

If that game in Oshawa is at 6pm, they will be on the bus at Noon-1PM and return home at 1:30am...and that’s not home. That’s the parking lot. From there they still need to actually get home In their cars.

If it is conference based and not small divisionally based, those trips get worse with no overnights. The other 5 teams are further away than Oshawa. That would be about 28 Individual 12-16 hour road trips.

When will the kids be able to do schoolwork? They’ll be exhausted and will probably not do much practising.

The schedule would need to be significantly reduced or they’ll need to do some overnights. I don’t see any way around it. The outlier teams will be seriously impacted with travel beyond reasonable acceptance.

If you want to keep the kids healthy, don’t run them ragged on continual gruelling bus rides. If that is the only option, just scrap the season. The quality of the hockey will be shit.

 

[OMG67]

A few differences. 1- The Q recieved $20 million from the Provincial Government... no guarantee that the OHL will receive any money, considering they haven't formally asked for any yet ( or even submitted a plan to return to play) and 2- The Q doesn't have American teams to contend with

We can’t assume this will not be viable for the OHL. Just because they haven’t submitted a return to play protocol and the Province hasn’t subsidized the league, it doesn’t mean those things won’t happen.

Clearly the league will submit a return to play package, otherwise they won’t be playing. Once they do, I would assume it will include some funding.

There is no issue with the American teams with respect to the Provincial Government. They’ll have to find a host city in Ontario To play out of or play a three team 68 game round robin tourney! You and I can both agree, there won’t be any border crossing for games in and out of the USA for junior hockey. The optics would be very bad.

If the local East Side Mario’s can get $10k per month to subsidize premium rent values to keep their doors open plus a massive subsidy to cover a portion of wages for employees, I am sure some sort of concession will be made with the OHL and their member teams.

There will need to be some serious sacrifices to make it all happen. Those sacrifices will be financial, on ice rules, and some form of time management. I am not sure it is worth the hassle from a fan perspective but if the league is more financially stable operating under these circumstances and with subsidies, I assume they will forgo the issues with fan enjoyment and stay afloat the best they can.

If body contact is discouraged, the speedy teams will have a significant advantage, that is for sure.