Value of: Next Kaprizov's contract

[Timeless Winter]

He's going to get at least $8 million per year, and he's worth it.

 

[sandybridge]

His ELC is over after this season, so what are the Wild going to offer him, and what is Kirill going to accept?

He's 24 so it's 3 years untill UFA. I think, it's going to be 2 year bridge with $5-6M per.

Probably more like 2x9 or 2x9.5m

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Probably more like 2x9 or 2x9.5m

There is no chance of either of those. Bridge deals never cost that much

 

[sandybridge]

There is no chance of either of those. Bridge deals never cost that much

I think you are about to be in shock then.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I think you are about to be in shock then.

During a flat cap it is even less likely. I would definitely be shocked but i really dont think it will happen

 

[Sota Popinski]

I think you are about to be in shock then.

I would love to see the comparison you're using because I don't think there has literally ever been a contract that doesn't buy UFA years for that high of an AAV.

 

[Menzinger]

Isn’t that the issue here. How are the 2 sides going to figure out what his expected future production will be over a long term contract just based off this one season?

Minny has to be somewhat conservative and can’t be thinking he’s a future 90 plus point guy and pay him Panarin money. Nor do I think Kaprizov isn’t confident enough in his ability to thinks he’s going to well exceed the 70 odd point range over a long term deal.

if they can’t come to an agreement on that then they likely end up with a bridge deal.

a couple of guys like Tarasenko and Saad their production remained consistent at what it was on their final elc year. Tarasenko around 70 points and Saad in the high 40’s on average for a full season. Does KK remain at this production or does he increase into another range?

He's exactly the player this organization has been waiting over a decade for. You don't penny pinch on a player like that.

A bridge deal would give the player arbitration rights at the end which could walk him straight to ufa which would give them even more leverage during the next contract negotiation. It's a very unique situation.

 

[AKL]

I think you are about to be in shock then.

Can you please provide some examples of RFA's that got 9M/yr on a 2 year bridge, for sake of comparison?

 

[StreetHawk]

He's exactly the player this organization has been waiting over a decade for. You don't penny pinch on a player like that.

A bridge deal would give the player arbitration rights at the end which could walk him straight to ufa which would give them even more leverage during the next contract negotiation. It's a very unique situation.

What’s the right number in terms of future production that that both sides are going to agree on. Kind of have to agree on that before you can figure out what the parameters of the contract are.

Are they trying to figure out numbers for a 70, 80, 90, 100 point player?

 

[TSA0402]

I think you are about to be in shock then.

Point/M. Tkachuk had much more productive PPG seasons and didn't get close to that. 3x7 basically. I'd hope Minnesota is talking 6-8 years if that money is being discussed.

 

[KaprizovEntitlelist]

Point/M. Tkachuk had much more productive PPG seasons and didn't get close to that. 3x7 basically. I'd hope Minnesota is talking 6-8 years if that money is being discussed.

Wild aren't doing 2, or 3 years to give kaprizov any chance @ free agency. it's long term deal being talked about

 

[Accelleratii]

I think you'll see close 9 million if he gets max term, about 7 if it's about 3 years

 

[AKL]

I think you'll see close 9 million if he gets max term, about 7 if it's about 3 years

If he gets 3x7M, somebody is getting fired.

 

[North Cole]

8x8.5 call it a day. No clue of the $ amount but seems real dumb of the wild to do anything less than 8 years.

Give em the Drais contract

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

8x8.5 call it a day. No clue of the $ amount but seems real dumb of the wild to do anything less than 8 years.

Give em the Drais contract

This is what I'm expecting. Hoping for maybe a little less, and would be pretty shocked if it's notably more.

 

[North Cole]

This is what I'm expecting. Hoping for maybe a little less, and would be pretty shocked if it's notably more.

I just dont get where all the ideas of a bridge are coming from? The dude is legit... are people so worried he's going to regress through the floor that they want to give him a 2 year prove it contract? Is there some news on this? Or are people just way too scared of committing for 8 years?

Seems short sighted. Risk of him signing that and blowing it up are higher than signing an 8 year and turning into a pumpkin. I just see a bridge turning into a 10m contract if he goes and puts up 80-90 points.

 

[StreetHawk]

I just dont get where all the ideas of a bridge are coming from? The dude is legit... are people so worried he's going to regress through the floor that they want to give him a 2 year prove it contract? Is there some news on this? Or are people just way too scared of committing for 8 years?

Seems short sighted. Risk of him signing that and blowing it up are higher than signing an 8 year and turning into a pumpkin. I just see a bridge turning into a 10m contract if he goes and puts up 80-90 points.

Bridge deal would be because the 2 sides can’t agree to what KK can produce at.

Say for example Minny is basing their offer on the expectation that he’s a 80-85 point guy. Maybe KK is basing his numbers off being a 95-100 point player moving forward.

the difference in salary because of that production difference may be $1.5 mill or something in the cap.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

7x7 call it a day.

 

[AKL]

7x7 call it a day.

If this is all it took I think Wild fans would be cheering in the streets and Guerin would get another phone for negotiations.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

If this is all it took I think Wild fans would be cheering in the streets and Guerin would get another phone for negotiations.

I don't think it's too far off reality. Kaprizov is no doubt fantastic, but it's only one season (a weird one at that).

 

[PAZ]

I don't think it's too far off reality. Kaprizov is no doubt fantastic, but it's only one season (a weird one at that).

Why wouldn't Kaprizov just go to arbitration, earn $6-7 mil the next year and then hit UFA and make $9-10 mil the next contract?

If he loves Minnesota or feels loyalty to the organization, that changes thing. But from a pure financial view, it doesn't really make any sense for him to sign that contract.

 

[AKL]

Why wouldn't Kaprizov just go to arbitration, earn $6-7 mil the next year and then hit UFA and make $9-10 mil the next contract?

If he loves Minnesota or feels loyalty to the organization, that changes thing. But from a pure financial view, it doesn't really make any sense for him to sign that contract.

Well he's not eligible for arbitration, for starters.

The Wild shouldn't burn a bridge trying to force him into a team friendly deal, but he currently has zero leverage apart from going back to Russia, which shouldn't be considered a very serious threat.

 

[PAZ]

Well he's not eligible for arbitration, for starters.

Is Capfriendly wrong?

Edit: This is the criteria Capfriendly would use to determine whether a player has arbitration rights:

• Salary arbitration is a contract negotiation method that uses a third party arbitrator to determine a fair contract term and length for an expiring RFA player. Arbitration can be requested if a player meets the following conditions (CBA Reference 12.1 (b)):

• The player qualifies as a Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
• The player has not signed an offer sheet
• The player has met the required professional years of experience, as shown in the list below

• Eligibility for salary arbitration is dependent on entry-level signing age, and professional experience (CBA Reference 12.1 (a))

• 18-20: 4 years professional experience.
• 21: 3 years professional experience.
• 22-23: 2 years professional experience.
• 24 and older: 1 year professional experience.

• Signing age is the age the player is on September 15 of the year they signed their contract, unless they turn 20 from September 16-December 31, in which case they are considered 20.
  A player is considered to have completed a year of professional experience if:
  1. The player is aged 18 or 19 and has played 10 or more NHL games in the respective season
  2. The player is aged 20 or older and has played 10 games in a professional league, while under an NHL SPC
  Due to the 2019-20 season being shortened by COVID, a pro-rating for the professional games requirement was applied as follows:
  1. If the player is aged 18 or 19, and is considered a Covid Roster Freeze Player, the 10 games requirement was pro-rated to 9 games (pro-rating of 70/82)
  2. If the player is aged 20 or older, the 10 games requirement was pro-rated to 9 games (pro-rating of 70/82)
  Due to the 2020-21 season being shortened, the professional games requirement was pro-rated to 7 games (56/82)

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Is Capfriendly wrong?

Edit: This is the criteria Capfriendly would use to determine whether a player has arbitration rights:

Kaprizov signed at 23 and will only have 1 season of professional experience.

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

Kaprizov signed at 23 and will only have 1 season of professional experience.

What? He has at least 6