Blue Jays Discussion: New players, new uniform, new thread

[aingefan]

Anyway...its projections season, which is always fun. We're only waiting for Zips and the BAT, which should be released in the next couple weeks. So far:

* WAR is Steamer 600
* ( ATC )

1. Bichette (SS) 3.3 WAR; .333 wOBA/107 wRC+ (.337 wOBA)
2. Biggio (2B) 2.1 WAR, .327 wOBA/103 wRC+ (.338 wOBA)
3. Vlad Jr. (3B) 3.5 WAR, .362 wOBA/127 wRC+ (.361 wOBA)
4. Shaw (1B) 1.7 WAR, .325 wOBA/102 wRC+ (.318 wOBA)
5. Gurriel Jr. (LF) 1.4 WAR, .325 wOBA/102 wRC+ (.325 wOBA)
6. Tellez (DH) 1.0 WAR, .325 wOBA/102 wRC+ (.324 wOBA)
7. Grichuk (RF) 2.0 WAR, .329 wOBA/105 wRC+ (.321 wOBA)
8. Jansen (C) 3.4 WAR, .321 wOBA/100 wRC+ (.323 wOBA)
9. Teoscar (CF) 0.4 WAR, .313 wOBA/94 wRC+ (.320 wOBA)

Bench: McGuire (C) 2.3 WAR, Valera (IF) 1.2 WAR, Fisher (OF) 0.9, Drury (U) 0.7, McKinney (OF\1B) 0.6

Rotation: Ryu 3.1 WAR, Shoemaker 1.9 WAR, Roark 1.5 WAR, Borucki 1.4 WAR, Anderson 0.9 WAR
BP: Giles 1.0 WAR, Font 0.5 WAR, Bass 0.4 WAR, Gaviglio 0.3 WAR, Thornton 0.1 WAR, Cole 0.1 WAR

Triple-A: Pearson 1.7 WAR, Murphy 1.3 WAR, Zeuch 0.8 WAR, Kay 0.4 WAR, Merryweather 0.4 WAR, SRF 0.1 WAR, Waguespack 0.0 WAR

Seems reasonable, save for Teoscar seeming a little light. I’m expecting more from Trent Thornton too.
How do the projection systems work for Asian imports, like Yamaguchi?

 

[stickty111]

 

[The Nemesis]

He appears to have been the closer for the Hanshin Tigers for the last several years. A fair # of innings pitched, moderate strikeouts, low walks. It's hard to know for sure what the numbers mean without making adjustments coming from Japanese baselines to MLB or AAA equivalents.

Especially when older scouting reports and stateside stats paint him as a low-strikeout, high walk power arm that could never harness his raw stuff into anything more broadly usable at the MLB level. The last scouting report I saw said he featured a high-90s power 2-seamer that induces ground balls and a funky, high-effort delivery that might open him up to greater risk of re-injury (he's already had TJ before)

Rafael Dolis Minor, Winter & Japanese Leagues Statistics & History | Baseball-Reference.com
Rafael Dolis - Stats - Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball
Who is Rafael Dolis?

At best it seems like he's a lottery ticket for a fireballing MR arm. At worst he's fungible pen depth to stash in Buffalo in case of the inevitable injury/collapse of some of the guys ahead of him.

Low risk, moderate reward, and honestly the right way to build a bullpen anyway.

 

[The Nemesis]

alleged Dolis highlight pack:



Upon reviewing it, yeah, there's some stuff going on in that delivery. Most of it is just strikeout pitches. He's got some downward plane on his pitches, which is nice, but I'm not sure he's going to bait bad swings out of decent MLBers the way he did there.

Fun though that if he keeps his # the Jays would have a #98 and a #99

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Discoverer]

alleged Dolis highlight pack:



Upon reviewing it, yeah, there's some stuff going on in that delivery. Most of it is just strikeout pitches. He's got some downward plane on his pitches, which is nice, but I'm not sure he's going to bait bad swings out of decent MLBers the way he did there.

Fun though that if he keeps his # the Jays would have a #98 and a #99

There was a tweet about a month ago out of Japan that Dolis was leaving to sign with the Jays. I think it was here that I saw it. Pretty impressive for someone to be in it that far ahead of the actual signing, especially considering none of the big reporters here seemed to pick up on it at the time.

 

[Buckleys]

There was a tweet about a month ago out of Japan that Dolis was leaving to sign with the Jays. I think it was here that I saw it. Pretty impressive for someone to be in it that far ahead of the actual signing, especially considering none of the big reporters here seemed to pick up on it at the time.

Was just signing in to say this. I believe it was the same day Yamaguchi was signed, and it was a thread on this board.

 

[phillipmike]

It was this guy. Had the signing over a month ago. The details before anyone else.

I’m not shocked but a little surprised he got a major league deal. Wonder who comes off the roster for him.

Font, Merryweather, Valera and Davis are all options. Davis has to be the prime candidate.

 

[Discoverer]

It was this guy. Had the signing over a month ago. The details before anyone else.

I’m not shocked but a little surprised he got a major league deal. Wonder who comes off the roster for him.

Font, Merryweather, Valera and Davis are all options. Davis has to be the prime candidate.

No chance it's Font. I think he's easily on the opening day roster.

Highly doubt it's Merryweather given the history there.

Valera (because he's bad) and Davis (mostly because of his place on the OF depth chart) seem like the obvious choices. If it's Davis I could see it being a trade for IFA spending to SF or something.

 

[phillipmike]

No chance it's Font. I think he's easily on the opening day roster.

Highly doubt it's Merryweather given the history there.

Valera (because he's bad) and Davis (mostly because of his place on the OF depth chart) seem like the obvious choices. If it's Davis I could see it being a trade for IFA spending to SF or something.

I think it’s Davis, 28 year old OF who hasn’t shown much in the majors and the stuff he did show in the minors, he was old for those levels.

I doubt anyone is interested in Davis for the above noted reasons but if someone wants to give this FO IFA money, then count me in. Would be getting something for nothing.

Pen is shaping up;
Giles
Bass
Yamaguchi
Dolis

Font, Gaviglio, Pannone, Romano and who ever loses the 5th spot battle will be in the battle for the pen.

I still think it’s a mistake to stretch SRF out. He has some great pen stuff and if you hone that properly, we are looking at a long term back end pen piece.

 

[phillipmike]

Dolis has given up 9 HRs since the end of the 2012 season - 339 innings.

 

[Anthrax442]

I guess itsdone

Blue Jays agree to deal with right-handed reliever Rafael Dolis - Sportsnet.ca

 

[Discoverer]

I think it’s Davis, 28 year old OF who hasn’t shown much in the majors and the stuff he did show in the minors, he was old for those levels.

I doubt anyone is interested in Davis for the above noted reasons but if someone wants to give this FO IFA money, then count me in. Would be getting something for nothing.

Pen is shaping up;
Giles
Bass
Yamaguchi
Dolis

Font, Gaviglio, Pannone, Romano and who ever loses the 5th spot battle will be in the battle for the pen.

I still think it’s a mistake to stretch SRF out. He has some great pen stuff and if you hone that properly, we are looking at a long term back end pen piece.

I just think Davis is the kind OF a handful of teams would be interested in - decent offensive production in the minors and elite defense in CF. There are a few teams who could use him. I would take him over 2019 Dwight Smith Jr, and they got something for Smith.

 

[phillipmike]

MLB Network doing their top 100. Here are the Jays related rankings so far;

98. Simeon Woods-Richardson
75. Jordan Groshans
8. Nate Pearson



So far Mize, Adell, Gore and Rutschman are ahead of Pearson.

The top 3 is:

1. Wander Franco
2. Gavin Lux
3. Luis Robert

All players taken ahead of Manoah (1-10) were ranked on this list. Corbin Carroll, Bryson Stotts and Brett Baty (3 of the 5 players taken after Manoah) were also on this list.

Manoah was the best pitcher in the draft according to some lists, he had a good start in Vancouver, list is selling him short.

Full list; MLB.com 2020 Prospect Watch

 

[phillipmike]

I just think Davis is the kind OF a handful of teams would be interested in - decent offensive production in the minors and elite defense in CF. There are a few teams who could use him. I would take him over 2019 Dwight Smith Jr, and they got something for Smith.

We will see, I didn’t like Smith Jr so I was very happy with the return. I’m slightly lower on Davis so I’ll take anything.

 

[phillipmike]

Johnathan Mayo just said he would take Franco over Vladdy “without blinking”. John Callis agreed and Callis was a guy who drooled on air talking about Vladdy’s potential.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Johnathan Mayo just said he would take Franco over Vladdy “without blinking”. John Callis agreed and Callis was a guy who drooled on air talking about Vladdy’s potential.

The next prospect is always better then the last. Though Franco might be a better prospect then Vlad.

 

[Amadeus]

The next prospect is always better then the last. Though Franco might be a better prospect then Vlad.

He's a star SS so I agree he's probably a better prospect.

 

[canucksfan]

MLB Network doing their top 100. Here are the Jays related rankings so far;

98. Simeon Woods-Richardson
75. Jordan Groshans
8. Nate Pearson



So far Mize, Adell, Gore and Rutschman are ahead of Pearson.

The top 3 is:

1. Wander Franco
2. Gavin Lux
3. Luis Robert

All players taken ahead of Manoah (1-10) were ranked on this list. Corbin Carroll, Bryson Stotts and Brett Baty (3 of the 5 players taken after Manoah) were also on this list.

Manoah was the best pitcher in the draft according to some lists, he had a good start in Vancouver, list is selling him short.

Full list; MLB.com 2020 Prospect Watch

I find MLB underrates Jays prospects typically. Groshans seems to be highly regarded among scouts and he's too low.

 

[phillipmike]

MLB.com is a joke, guy isn’t even worth a roster spot.




I take Jansen next season over Ramos, Chrinos, Narveaz and maybe even Molina very easily.

 

[phillipmike]

I find MLB underrates Jays prospects typically. Groshans seems to be highly regarded among scouts and he's too low.

To me there is an honest argument that Manoah at a minimum should be on this list.

If Moreno, Kirk and Martinez repeat their success from last season then all three should be top 100 prospects.

Jays should have a minimum of 3 top 100 prospects next season with as many as 6-7.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

To me there is an honest argument that Manoah at a minimum should be on this list.

If Moreno, Kirk and Martinez repeat their success from last season then all three should be top 100 prospects.

Jays should have a minimum of 3 top 100 prospects next season with as many as 6-7.

You would hope that we have a spot reserved with whoever we take with our 1st rounder as well.

 

[Anthrax442]

All these lists are meaningless.

 

[Maplebeasts]

MLB.com is a joke, guy isn’t even worth a roster spot.




I take Jansen next season over Ramos, Chrinos, Narveaz and maybe even Molina very easily.

Assuming his Defense holds up and BA picks up to around .250 he could be top 3 in WAR for catchers.