Blue Jays Discussion: New players, new uniform, new thread

[Amadeus]

Naturally the pluses would have to be great.

I think we may end up not giving up Biggio and will have to start with Groshans for Lindor and that's fine.

Pearson is an untouchable though. Those types of prospects are just never moved.

 

[BlueForever75]

Naturally the pluses would have to be great.

I think we may end up not giving up Biggio and will have to start with Groshans for Lindor and that's fine.

Pearson is an untouchable though. Those types of prospects are just never moved.

Unfortunately acquiring a player like Lindor means Biggio is gone. He isn't OF material, and getting Lindor means Bichette moves to 2B. No place to play for Biggio.

Would you give up Groshans and Biggio in a deal for Lindor?? Cause that's what it would take to acquire a player like Lindor. Especially if Pearson is a non-starter from our side.

 

[Discoverer]

This isn't the time for the Jays to be spending significant pieces of the future for 1-2 year upgrades unless they can get an absolute bargain. Assuming they take a step or two forward this year, next offseason is the time to start those kinds of moves (or at the trade deadline this year if they're in contention that quickly).

 

[Amadeus]

Unfortunately acquiring a player like Lindor means Biggio is gone. He isn't OF material, and getting Lindor means Bichette moves to 2B. No place to play for Biggio.

Would you give up Groshans and Biggio in a deal for Lindor?? Cause that's what it would take to acquire a player like Lindor. Especially if Pearson is a non-starter from our side.

I personally woudn't. I rate both the players really high!

I'll be comfortable trading a package of:

Groshans
Kirk
Pardinho

Three fairly high ceiling players.

 

[BlueForever75]

I personally woudn't. I rate both the players really high!

I'll be comfortable trading a package of:

Groshans
Kirk
Pardinho

Three fairly high ceiling players.

So you would be willing to trade 3 top 125 BA prospects for a couple of seasons of Lindor. But you wouldn't trade Biggio never ranked a top 100 prospect in a deal for Marte for 2 seasons.

I don't know if I see the reasoning.

Ultimately the least prospect capital you can give up while still improving your team and not crippling your organizational depth should be the way to go.

Management needs to take a look at what is available in FA, what is available for trade, and the organizational depth by position they have prior to making any moves.

The move that I suggested doesn't cripple the MLB lineup, or organizational depth and it fills an immediate need. Marte isn't a scrub, and I will argue that he immediately becomes the Jays best OF and helps them this coming season. By signing a cheap FA 2B option the Jays still have middle infield options maturing throughout their organization that are or were ranked higher the Biggio. So a future replacement, long term replacement is still readily available. As for catcher, the trading of McGuire doesn't touch Jansen or Kirk or Moreno in the organization.

 

[landy92mack29]

yeah again if you're spending multiple young assets Chapman should be the target not Lindor(or Betts). Marte is another dumb target as he's on the wrong side of 30 and on the edge of the cliff just like the pieces the Jays got in the Marlins trade. Speaking of the Marlins Brian Anderson is someone to target in a trade.

 

[BlueForever75]

yeah again if you're spending multiple young assets Chapman should be the target not Lindor(or Betts). Marte is another dumb target as he's on the wrong side of 30 and on the edge of the cliff just like the pieces the Jays got in the Marlins trade. Speaking of the Marlins Brian Anderson is someone to target in a trade.

Biggio was never a top prospect and your selling high based on his last 2 seasons. Prospects like Groshans, Pearson, Kirk, Pardinho are recognized prospects with respected abilities across all of baseball.

Im just not sold on Biggio. Selling high on him for an immediate upgrade to the lineup should be the way to go.

Something tells me he turns into another Brandon Drury type, came out ballz a blazing with Arizona when he first came out of no where. Only to be what we see with the Jays today. Replacement type player. I hope I am wrong, but something is right with how good he has become so fast

 

[Leafin]

Who cares if Biggio was never a top 100 prospect? He's a pretty good MLBer already.

I don't know if i'd be moving any of our prospects just yet. Maybe at the deadline if the season is going really well. I think we should just stay the course and see how things go with our young guys. If we're a middling club at the deadline we will still have Giles to trade. Maybe a rebound from Shaw gets us something decent at the deadline as well.

If anything i'd be looking to take on salary from another team to gain assets(ahem Red Sox). I'd look to take David Price from them and squeeze them for extra value. Either money retained or prospects.

 

[landy92mack29]

Biggio was never a top prospect and your selling high based on his last 2 seasons. Prospects like Groshans, Pearson, Kirk, Pardinho are recognized prospects with respected abilities across all of baseball.

Im just not sold on Biggio. Selling high on him for an immediate upgrade to the lineup should be the way to go.

Something tells me he turns into another Brandon Drury type, came out ballz a blazing with Arizona when he first came out of no where. Only to be what we see with the Jays today. Replacement type player. I hope I am wrong, but something is right with how good he has become so fast

Once a player is showing they can produce in the mlb it doesn't matter if they were highly touted coming up or not. A lot of highly touted players fail while relative unknowns turn into some of the games best players. Valuing a player based on how much hype they had is really dumb. Based on that logic guys like Travis Snider should've had more value than Bautista/Encarnacion/Donaldson. Biggio has proven over numerous years he should've been more highly regarded and produced all the way through the minors. It's also a bonus that the big 3 came up together so they have good chemistry and might improve the chances of keeping them together when they reach FA

 

[LeafsNation75]

 

[Discoverer]

Biggio was never a top prospect and your selling high based on his last 2 seasons. Prospects like Groshans, Pearson, Kirk, Pardinho are recognized prospects with respected abilities across all of baseball.

Im just not sold on Biggio. Selling high on him for an immediate upgrade to the lineup should be the way to go.

Something tells me he turns into another Brandon Drury type, came out ballz a blazing with Arizona when he first came out of no where. Only to be what we see with the Jays today. Replacement type player. I hope I am wrong, but something is right with how good he has become so fast

Your logic is all over the place.

 

[canucksfan]

Biggio was never a top prospect and your selling high based on his last 2 seasons. Prospects like Groshans, Pearson, Kirk, Pardinho are recognized prospects with respected abilities across all of baseball.

Im just not sold on Biggio. Selling high on him for an immediate upgrade to the lineup should be the way to go.

Something tells me he turns into another Brandon Drury type, came out ballz a blazing with Arizona when he first came out of no where. Only to be what we see with the Jays today. Replacement type player. I hope I am wrong, but something is right with how good he has become so fast

Biggio wasn't considered a top prospect because he hadn't developed his power yet. He's always had a great eye at the plate. In 2018, he made a swing adjustment and then the power developed. It's hard to go from a nothing prospect to a top 100 prospect in the league in one season. The following year he had already graduated.

Biggio walks significantly more than Drury and has better power.

Biggio likely provides a 3.0 WAR production from the 2B position. By all accounts his work ethic and attitude are outstanding so his defense likely improves at second. Seems to be slightly below average and I am confident he can turn into an average defender at that position.

 

[canucksfan]

I could see Smith bouncing back but Warmoth is a bust. He hasn't done much since being drafted.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Biggio was never a top prospect and your selling high based on his last 2 seasons. Prospects like Groshans, Pearson, Kirk, Pardinho are recognized prospects with respected abilities across all of baseball.

Neither was Jose Ramirez. Or Justin Turner.

Im just not sold on Biggio. Selling high on him for an immediate upgrade to the lineup should be the way to go.

I respect your right to evaluate players and feel about them how you may.

Something tells me he turns into another Brandon Drury type, came out ballz a blazing with Arizona when he first came out of no where. Only to be what we see with the Jays today. Replacement type player. I hope I am wrong, but something is right with how good he has become so fast

This...never happened.

Your logic is all over the place.

You're a nice person for using the word logic.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Anyway...its projections season, which is always fun. We're only waiting for Zips and the BAT, which should be released in the next couple weeks. So far:

* WAR is Steamer 600
* ( ATC )

1. Bichette (SS) 3.3 WAR; .333 wOBA/107 wRC+ (.337 wOBA)
2. Biggio (2B) 2.1 WAR, .327 wOBA/103 wRC+ (.338 wOBA)
3. Vlad Jr. (3B) 3.5 WAR, .362 wOBA/127 wRC+ (.361 wOBA)
4. Shaw (1B) 1.7 WAR, .325 wOBA/102 wRC+ (.318 wOBA)
5. Gurriel Jr. (LF) 1.4 WAR, .325 wOBA/102 wRC+ (.325 wOBA)
6. Tellez (DH) 1.0 WAR, .325 wOBA/102 wRC+ (.324 wOBA)
7. Grichuk (RF) 2.0 WAR, .329 wOBA/105 wRC+ (.321 wOBA)
8. Jansen (C) 3.4 WAR, .321 wOBA/100 wRC+ (.323 wOBA)
9. Teoscar (CF) 0.4 WAR, .313 wOBA/94 wRC+ (.320 wOBA)

Bench: McGuire (C) 2.3 WAR, Valera (IF) 1.2 WAR, Fisher (OF) 0.9, Drury (U) 0.7, McKinney (OF\1B) 0.6

Rotation: Ryu 3.1 WAR, Shoemaker 1.9 WAR, Roark 1.5 WAR, Borucki 1.4 WAR, Anderson 0.9 WAR
BP: Giles 1.0 WAR, Font 0.5 WAR, Bass 0.4 WAR, Gaviglio 0.3 WAR, Thornton 0.1 WAR, Cole 0.1 WAR

Triple-A: Pearson 1.7 WAR, Murphy 1.3 WAR, Zeuch 0.8 WAR, Kay 0.4 WAR, Merryweather 0.4 WAR, SRF 0.1 WAR, Waguespack 0.0 WAR

 

[Mach85]

Anyway...its projections season, which is always fun. We're only waiting for Zips and the BAT, which should be released in the next couple weeks. So far:

* WAR is Steamer 600
* ( ATC )

1. Bichette (SS) 3.3 WAR; .333 wOBA/107 wRC+ (.337 wOBA)
2. Biggio (2B) 2.1 WAR, .327 wOBA/103 wRC+ (.338 wOBA)
3. Vlad Jr. (3B) 3.5 WAR, .362 wOBA/127 wRC+ (.361 wOBA)
4. Shaw (1B) 1.7 WAR, .325 wOBA/102 wRC+ (.318 wOBA)
5. Gurriel Jr. (LF) 1.4 WAR, .325 wOBA/102 wRC+ (.325 wOBA)
6. Tellez (DH) 1.0 WAR, .325 wOBA/102 wRC+ (.324 wOBA)
7. Grichuk (RF) 2.0 WAR, .329 wOBA/105 wRC+ (.321 wOBA)
8. Jansen (C) 3.4 WAR, .321 wOBA/100 wRC+ (.323 wOBA)
9. Teoscar (CF) 0.4 WAR, .313 wOBA/94 wRC+ (.320 wOBA)

Bench: McGuire (C) 2.3 WAR, Valera (IF) 1.2 WAR, Fisher (OF) 0.9, Drury (U) 0.7, McKinney (OF\1B) 0.6

Rotation: Ryu 3.1 WAR, Shoemaker 1.9 WAR, Roark 1.5 WAR, Borucki 1.4 WAR, Anderson 0.9 WAR
BP: Giles 1.0 WAR, Font 0.5 WAR, Bass 0.4 WAR, Gaviglio 0.3 WAR, Thornton 0.1 WAR, Cole 0.1 WAR

Triple-A: Pearson 1.7 WAR, Murphy 1.3 WAR, Zeuch 0.8 WAR, Kay 0.4 WAR, Merryweather 0.4 WAR, SRF 0.1 WAR, Waguespack 0.0 WAR

Various projection systems have been available for a while now. Is there public data on the reliability of these models? That's one thing that always seems to be frustratingly unavailable for advanced stats. I'd love to know how exit velocity correlates with hitting outcomes, both on the batter and pitcher side of things, but haven't seen much about that. Granted, I haven't exactly done a deep dive. I do recall reading that EV against is not a good predictor for pitchers.

While Steamer et al. are all being tweaked on an ongoing basis, it would be helpful to see how they've been trending over the years.

 

[phillipmike]

Anyway...its projections season, which is always fun. We're only waiting for Zips and the BAT, which should be released in the next couple weeks. So far:

* WAR is Steamer 600
* ( ATC )

1. Bichette (SS) 3.3 WAR; .333 wOBA/107 wRC+ (.337 wOBA)
2. Biggio (2B) 2.1 WAR, .327 wOBA/103 wRC+ (.338 wOBA)
3. Vlad Jr. (3B) 3.5 WAR, .362 wOBA/127 wRC+ (.361 wOBA)
4. Shaw (1B) 1.7 WAR, .325 wOBA/102 wRC+ (.318 wOBA)
5. Gurriel Jr. (LF) 1.4 WAR, .325 wOBA/102 wRC+ (.325 wOBA)
6. Tellez (DH) 1.0 WAR, .325 wOBA/102 wRC+ (.324 wOBA)
7. Grichuk (RF) 2.0 WAR, .329 wOBA/105 wRC+ (.321 wOBA)
8. Jansen (C) 3.4 WAR, .321 wOBA/100 wRC+ (.323 wOBA)
9. Teoscar (CF) 0.4 WAR, .313 wOBA/94 wRC+ (.320 wOBA)

Bench: McGuire (C) 2.3 WAR, Valera (IF) 1.2 WAR, Fisher (OF) 0.9, Drury (U) 0.7, McKinney (OF\1B) 0.6

Rotation: Ryu 3.1 WAR, Shoemaker 1.9 WAR, Roark 1.5 WAR, Borucki 1.4 WAR, Anderson 0.9 WAR
BP: Giles 1.0 WAR, Font 0.5 WAR, Bass 0.4 WAR, Gaviglio 0.3 WAR, Thornton 0.1 WAR, Cole 0.1 WAR

Triple-A: Pearson 1.7 WAR, Murphy 1.3 WAR, Zeuch 0.8 WAR, Kay 0.4 WAR, Merryweather 0.4 WAR, SRF 0.1 WAR, Waguespack 0.0 WAR

I would be pretty happy with these numbers. Though as an optimist i would hope Bichette would be a 4 fWAR player, Biggio closer to 3 fWAR, Gurriel and Teoscar both 2 fWARs at a minimum. McGuire and Valera are a little high for me. But id glady take a 5.7 fWAR from my catchers (would have been 3rd in the league after the Brewers and Philles). Ryu is where he should be. Shoemaker and Borucki a little high. Thornton too low for me, i think he wins the 5th spot in the rotation and runs with it.

2019 Position Player fWAR: 11.5 fWAR (20th)
2019 Pitching fWAR: 9.1 fWAR (21st)
2019 Total fWAR: 20.6 fWAR (23rd)

2020 Position Player fWAR: 24.5 fWAR (would be 10th in the league based on last years numbers)
2020 Pitching fWAR: 12.9 fWAR (would be 17th in the league based on last years numbers)
2020 Total fWAR: 37.4 fWAR (would be 13th in the league based on last years numbers)

2019 fWAR:
12. Braves: 39.2 fWAR
13. Cardinals: 37.9 fWAR
14. Diamondbacks: 37.3 fWAR
15. Brewers: 37.1 fWAR

These projections would put us in that 2nd tier of contenders for a WC spot. Likely still miss because we are in the AL but a good step forward. Only way we make it is if 2 of the A's/Astros, Indians/Twins and Rays take a step back. All are possibly but arent likely. Indians might be a prime candidate for a fall.

 

[phillipmike]

These 10 2020 projections will blow you away

9) The Blue Jays are catching up
The focus tends to be on Toronto’s young, ultra-talented infield, but what they have behind the plate might be overlooked. Former top-100 prospect Danny Jansen had a strong 2019 defensively, being named an AL Gold Glove finalist and finishing fifth among MLB catchers in Defensive Runs Saved (12). The 24-year-old’s bat was a different story (.207/.279/.360), but Statcast shows that Jansen had one of the largest gaps between his expected and actual numbers, based on quality of contact. The projections forecast a rebound to a league-average .249/.326/.431 line, which in a thin catching pool would put Jansen seventh in WAR at his position in only 72 games. With equal playing time, he would be tied with Realmuto for second behind Grandal. Between Jansen and 24-year-old counterpart Reese McGuire, the Blue Jays may have one of the game’s best behind-the-plate situations.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Report: Boston Red Sox, San Diego Padres discussed Mookie Betts trade - TSN.ca

The Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres have discussed a potential Mookie Betts trade, according to a report from The Athletic's Dennis Lin.

The Padres and Red Sox have discussed a potential trade that would bring Mookie Betts to San Diego, sources tell The Athletic: Sources: Padres and Red Sox have discussed potential Mookie...
— Dennis Lin (@dennistlin) January 24, 2020

Lin reports trade talks have focused on the Padres sending OF Wil Myers and "a significant amount of prospect talent" to the Red Sox in any trade for Betts.

Lin added multiple people familiar with the discussions called the trade unlikely, but there does appear to be legitimate interest on both sides.

Betts, who is due to become a free agent at the end of this coming season, avoided arbitration with the Red Sox by signing a one-year, $27 million deal with the club earlier this month. The deal was the largest one-year salary for an arbitration-eligible player.

The 27-year-old hit .295/.391/.524 with 29 home runs and 80 RBIs last season. Betts was named the 2018 AL MVP.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[The Nemesis]

In what has to be one of the weirder contract clause structures in a while, Alex Gordon signed a 1 year/$4m contract with the Royals that specifically includes a preemptive waiving of his 5-and-10 NTC rights beginning on June 16. In other words, as of June 16, 2020 Gordon will consent to the Royals trading him rather than invoking his 5-and-10 rights (any player who has 10 years of accrued MLB service time including 5 straight years with his current team is automatically granted the ability to reject any trade involving him). In addition, he would receive a $500k bonus payable by the acquiring team if he were traded, and would trigger a number of additional bonuses based on plate appearance thresholds.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...-gordon-agrees-accept-trades-starting-june-16

 

[Canada4Gold]

Love me some Drury blazing out of the gate with a -0.2 fWAR in 20 games when he first came up and a 0.3 fWAR in his first full season. There must be another word for that, blazing is an understatement.

Drury was also barely a league average hitter the 2 years prior in the minors. 89 wRC+ in AA in 2015, 127 wRC+ in AAA in 2016 before he was called up. For comparison Biggio was 145 in AA over a full season and then 152 in AAA before being called up last year. Maybe 1 of them should have been a top 100 prospect and the other shouldn't.

 

[Discoverer]

In what has to be one of the weirder contract clause structures in a while, Alex Gordon signed a 1 year/$4m contract with the Royals that specifically includes a preemptive waiving of his 5-and-10 NTC rights beginning on June 16. In other words, as of June 16, 2020 Gordon will consent to the Royals trading him rather than invoking his 5-and-10 rights (any player who has 10 years of accrued MLB service time including 5 straight years with his current team is automatically granted the ability to reject any trade involving him). In addition, he would receive a $500k bonus payable by the acquiring team if he were traded, and would trigger a number of additional bonuses based on plate appearance thresholds.

Gordon's Royals deal allows trade after June 16

"So Alex... we want you on our team, but we also want to be able to get rid of you in a few months."

 

[weaponomega]

Love me some Drury blazing out of the gate with a -0.2 fWAR in 20 games when he first came up and a 0.3 fWAR in his first full season. There must be another word for that, blazing is an understatement.

Drury was also barely a league average hitter the 2 years prior in the minors. 89 wRC+ in AA in 2015, 127 wRC+ in AAA in 2016 before he was called up. For comparison Biggio was 145 in AA over a full season and then 152 in AAA before being called up last year. Maybe 1 of them should have been a top 100 prospect and the other shouldn't.

Actually its ballz a blazing

 

[The Nemesis]

"So Alex... we want you on our team, but we also want to be able to get rid of you in a few months."

"We particularly think we're going to no longer want you around starting on... let's say June 16th. Sorry we can't be more specific."