Value of: Nathan Horton

[Matthews34]

Consider the reasons why the Blackhawks moved the Hossa contract? It's not a simple as the 10% rule. If you use that rule, the restrictions for the following year have to be managed around. Read this article. It explains the challenges and I still am not going to pretend to be an expert after reading it.

LTIR Isn’t Free Cap Space And The Leafs Need To Be Cautious In Using It

A blogger is seriously your proof??

 

[Habs Halifax]

A blogger is seriously your proof??

No, just an interesting read. What do you not agree with that's in the article? Something tells me you are in denial mode and turn a blind eye to anything that contradicts it.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Correct me if I am wrong.

The Leafs should have no issue carrying him through the summer (being 10% over the cap). Once the season starts, he goes on LTIR. The Leafs shouldn't have any significant (if any) bonuses to worry about at that point.

Am I overlooking something?

yup, the opening day issue.

if the Leafs are under the cap, counting Horton, they then get to LTIR him on day 1 and get the cap space back for use during the season.

if they dont get under, counting Horton, then they have to LTIR him before day 1 and go through the season with zero cap space.

basically if they dont get under the more or less kill their ability to make any deadline moves

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Correct me if I am wrong.

The Leafs should have no issue carrying him through the summer (being 10% over the cap). Once the season starts, he goes on LTIR. The Leafs shouldn't have any significant (if any) bonuses to worry about at that point.

Am I overlooking something?

Hope he or she doesn't mind me tagging them but resident CBA savant @mouser could probably clear this up.

 

[almostawake]

I know Leafs fans don't like hearing it and If I was in their situation, I would feel the same. However, Dubas has some very tough work ahead of him to keep things together and under the cap. It's reasonable to assume they will try to move the Horton contract but depends on who is interested and what is the incentive for that team to ask their owner to write off $4M in actual money cause it's not insured.

If it was insured, it would be very easy to move. But just because the money don't matter to the Leafs, it don't mean that other teams are willing to do the same.

If the Habs are even interested in moving Petry. I can see a deal between the Leafs and Habs. Habs take Horton's contract, retain on Petry but the pieces coming back might be a bitter pill to swallow.

To give folks the benefit of the doubt, I don't know if it is not wanting to hear about it as much as it is an extremely complex matter. Like, I've read the relevant sections of the CBA at least a dozen times and I still cannot succinctly explain what happens, except to say it essentially reduces your cap flexibility to zero until you get fully below the cap again.

I mean, it can take hours for someone to grasp that LTIR is not a reduction of your cap hit, or an increase of your cap limit, but rather an exception to exceed the cap for a period of time. And how those three things are very different and have a significant impact on the decision making of teams

This opening day-LTIR thing is a whole level up from that

 

[almostawake]

A blogger is seriously your proof??

If you prefer you're welcome to go to the CBA: Collective Bargaining Agreement

It is in article 50.10 section (d).

It isn't some made up thing. Just a very obscure point of the CBA that comes up so rarely that the only people aware of it are the most detail obsessed fans of teams who have ran into the issue previously.

 

[Habs Halifax]

To give folks the benefit of the doubt, I don't know if it is not wanting to hear about it as much as it is an extremely complex matter. Like, I've read the relevant sections of the CBA at least a dozen times and I still cannot succinctly explain what happens, except to say it essentially reduces your cap flexibility to zero until you get fully below the cap again.

I mean, it can take hours for someone to grasp that LTIR is not a reduction of your cap hit, or an increase of your cap limit, but rather an exception to exceed the cap for a period of time. And how those three things are very different and have a significant impact on the decision making of teams

This opening day-LTIR thing is a whole level up from that

Should be interesting to see how the Horton situation unfolds. We all know the Leafs need every cap space dollar they can get this off season.

 

[FerrisRox]

If Nylander is traded, It would be smart to try to include Horton in the deal.

Good luck finding a team that wants to take on an uninsured contract for a player that won't play. You are asking a team to simply throw away millions of dollars.

 

[mouser]

Yes you are allowed to go over the cap by 10% during the summer but one the opening day of the season if you cannot get under the cap before the player is transfered to LTIR you basically cannot use the LTIR overage of any other player for the rest of the season, or rather, until you can create a cap compliant roster with no players on LTIR.

So, yes, technically speaking the Leafs can use the 10% and be compliant with Horton. But it will cause problems for them. For reference, no team has gone into the season using LTIR as it is too restrictive. The Bruins's awful Boychuk trade was in fact made to simply avoid the LTIR opening day problem.

Actually, many teams have used LTIR before day 1. I haven't kept an exhaustive list, but I know for example Detroit did so a season or two ago.

And you can still use LTIR on a different player in the regular season even if you have a training camp LTIR player. In that situation the regular season LTIR would get 100% cap relief because the team would have entered day 1 with 0 cap space due to the training camp LTIR.

 

[Habs Halifax]

yup, the opening day issue.

if the Leafs are under the cap, counting Horton, they then get to LTIR him on day 1 and get the cap space back for use during the season.

if they dont get under, counting Horton, then they have to LTIR him before day 1 and go through the season with zero cap space.

basically if they dont get under the more or less kill their ability to make any deadline moves

Basically, the Leafs need every single cap space dollar in the off season (including the Horton LTIR contract). 11 players signed with $30M in cap space. Add inflation and subtract the new contracts from Nylander, Matthews, Marner, Gardiner (or replacement), Kapanen and it results in 16 players signed with little to zero cap space available.

So I guess one could say they won't have any space to go after improvements in the 2020 deadline regardless.

There is a lot of unpredictable moving parts and the reason why GM's avoid using the 10% rule in the off season. The constrictions that follow could handcuff you more than you want. Pretty sure that's the reason why the Blackhawks unloaded the Hossa contract.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Good luck finding a team that wants to take on an uninsured contract for a player that won't play. You are asking a team to simply throw away millions of dollars.

Habs can but the Leafs need to pay the price in futures....

Habs acquire:
- Horton's uninsured contract
- Sandin
- 2019 1st (no lottery protection )
- 2020 2nd
- possibly more

Leafs acquire:
- Petry ($1.5m retention to help they fit him in the cap for 3 years). $4M for 3 years is a steal!

What's funny is how several Leafs fans don't value this trade. Habs are retaining salary on a very good #3RD which the Leafs need and we are helping them with unloading Horton's contract. Heck, I bet you Bergevin asks for more than me just like he got more for Patch vs what I was asking in these boards.

If the Habs are interested in moving Petry, there is a deal to be made there. I also posted a very solid 3 way deal on the Nylander thread yesterday and they got all flabbergasted. Habs using Petry could be a bridge to help the Leafs unload Nylander to another team that prefers not to trade a NHL proven top 4D/2D defenseman. Heck, the Leafs could possibly get Petry and a very good young prospect on D at the same time while also creating much needed cap space.

 

[mouser]

yup, the opening day issue.

if the Leafs are under the cap, counting Horton, they then get to LTIR him on day 1 and get the cap space back for use during the season.

if they dont get under, counting Horton, then they have to LTIR him before day 1 and go through the season with zero cap space.

basically if they dont get under the more or less kill their ability to make any deadline moves

Maybe. There are ways to game the numbers. For example if a team has roster spots available to pump up their total team AAV before day 1 then they could keep a player or two on the day 1 roster then send them down to the AHL on day 2. The team would have 0 cap space on day 1, but then free up cap space on day 2 when the players are sent down. Likewise, having other players on short term IR during training camp opens up more machination possibilities to inflate the team cap prior to day 1.

In short, it can be really complicated.

 

[mouser]

Summing up my thoughts:

Generally teams are better off not having to deal with LTIR players. As the the linked article in this thread states, it's not a free lunch. If a team has lots of cap space then no big deal. If a team is close to the cap then they might have to do some complicated maneuvers or be limited in some options. There's a reason Philly moved Pronger and Chicago moved Hossa.

Having said that it's impossible to say exactly how limiting Horton might or might not be for the Leafs next year without looking at a detailed roster and cap numbers for 2018-19. Could be a minor annoyance, could be a big deal.

 

[Burke the Legend]

Habs can but the Leafs need to pay the price in futures....

Habs acquire:
- Horton's uninsured contract
- Sandin
- 2019 1st (no lottery protection )
- 2020 2nd
- possibly more

Leafs acquire:
- Petry ($1.5m retention to help they fit him in the cap for 3 years). $4M for 3 years is a steal!

What's funny is how several Leafs fans don't value this trade. Habs are retaining salary on a very good #3RD which they need and we are helping them with unloading Horton's contract. Heck, I bet you Bergevin asks for more than me just like he got more for Patch vs what I was asking in these boards.

If the Habs are interested in moving Petry, there is a deal to be made there. I also posted a very solid 3 way deal on the Nylander thread yesterday and they got all flabbergasted. Habs using Petry could be a bridge to help the Leafs unload Nylander to another team that prefers not to trade a NHL proven top 4D/2D defenseman. Heck, the Leafs could possibly get Petry and a very good young prospect on D at the same time while also creating much needed cap space.

I doubt Habs trade effective roster players for futures at this point, not when they are competing for playoffs. The emergence of Domi, Kotkaniemi as effective top 9 centers, along with the very solid play of young D like Juulsen and Reilly has altered the calculation for the tank thesis. People are free to disagree but the excellent play of those 4 in particular is not something many people predicted (both tankers and optimists).

But if you're looking for vet D, Benn & Alzner are probably available...

 

[Habs Halifax]

I doubt Habs trade effective roster players for futures at this point, not when they are competing for playoffs. The emergence of Domi, Kotkaniemi as effective top 9 centers, along with the very solid play of young D like Juulsen and Reilly has altered the calculation for the tank thesis.

But if you're looking for vet D, Benn & Alzner are probably available...

Agreed. What I prefer the Habs to do vs what Bergevin will do is two different things. However, If it were me, I think there is a deal there that could make both teams happy and address each other's needs.

At some point, the Habs need to unblock the RD stock pile. Weber, Petry, Juulsen, Brook, Fleury. When Weber comes back, the time to trade Petry to a cup contender looking for a RD is now. Tough move to make for the Habs but a smart one IMO.

I don't value a Pride/Rebound season where you can make the playoffs and "anything can happen" as much as most Habs fans do. My focus is winning a cup in the next decade.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The Leafs media should ask this question to Dubas the next chance they get. See his reaction. If he is overly confident ("We can and we will"), he is hiding something

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Actually, many teams have used LTIR before day 1. I haven't kept an exhaustive list, but I know for example Detroit did so a season or two ago.

And you can still use LTIR on a different player in the regular season even if you have a training camp LTIR player. In that situation the regular season LTIR would get 100% cap relief because the team would have entered day 1 with 0 cap space due to the training camp LTIR.

Does Horton's contract actually impact the Leafs? It seems like it's just creative bookkeeping to make sure his cap hit doesn't affect the team once the season starts.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Let's say Salary Cap goes up to 83M, as it should. Let's also say that Matthews, Marner, Nylander all work out lucrative deals(and Kapanen, Jonsson, etc. and some lesser guys get lesser deals).......and Gardiner, Hainsey & Marleau go bye-bye.....Leafs let Gardiner & Hainsey walk, and Marleau is traded for very little, to a team needing to reach the cap floor.

Hyman (2.25K) - Tavares (11M) - Marner (8.5M)
Kapanen (3M) - Matthews (11M) - Nylander (7M)
Johnsson (1.5M) - Kadri (4.5M) - Grundstrom(925K)
Ennis (650K) - Lindholm (1.2M) - Korshkov (925K)
Gauthier (675K)

Rielly (5M) - Ozhiganov (1.5M)
Dermott (900K)- Zaitsev (4.5M)
Borgman(1M) - Liljegren (900K)
Rosen (900K)


Andersen (5M)
Sparks (750K)

Buyouts: 1.2M
Horton: 5.5M

TOTAL SALARY == 80.275M, including Horton and Kessel.

Leafs will be fine, and in fact, still have 2.75 million in cap space.

Phew. That was easy!

 

[mouser]

Does Horton's contract actually impact the Leafs? It seems like it's just creative bookkeeping to make sure his cap hit doesn't affect the team once the season starts.

See my follow up post a few spots above. It's impossible to say imo with any certainty at this time. It could end up being a minor annoyance that just requires some creative shuffling to maximize the LTIR relief. It could be a pain if the juggling options are limited going into training camp. If we knew exactly what the Leafs roster looked like going into training camp I could give a more definitive answer. But that requires more then just what Marner/Matthews/Nylander make. There are 5 other RFA's on the team, plus what's gonna happen with Gardiner or a replacement. The devil in the details for LTIR often comes down to the smaller contracts rather then the biggest--they're the typical elements being shuffled for max cap relief.

 

[tony d]

I'm meh on the whole trading players who can't play like this. I think this should be addressed in the next CBA.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Does Horton's contract actually impact the Leafs? It seems like it's just creative bookkeeping to make sure his cap hit doesn't affect the team once the season starts.

yes, it costs them 5.3 mill in offseason cap space, with the benefit being that frees up on day 1 of the season.

or it doesnt affect them in the offseason, but they dont get to free it up on day 1.

they have to choose if they'd rather have their hands tied before the season or during it

 

[indigobuffalo]

Another Horton thread? jeez...

Leafs currently have $49,313,333 allocated for 2019-20 between Horton, Kessel, and 11 roster players (Tavares, Marleau, Kadri, Hyman, Brown, Gauthier, Rielly, Zaitsev, Dermott, Holl, Andersen).

The projected salary cap is $81.4M to $85.4M.

Taking into account the bonus cushion, that means the summer cap will be between $89.54M to $93.94M.

That leaves Toronto with between $40,226,667 to $44,626,667 in available cap space during the summer prior to accessing any LTIR, which they can for Horton and anyone else who is injured.

So with Horton on LTIR the Leafs could have as much as $50,000,000 in cap room to sign Gardiner, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Kapanen, Ozhiganov, and a few other minor players if they see fit.

Gardiner should be paid around the same or maybe a bit less. $6M let’s say.

Matthews $11M (likely internal cap, plus with RFA years he should make less)

Marner $8M. Nylander $7M (which is likely more than he will get).

Kapanen $4.5M

Ozhiganov $3.5M

That leaves $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 in extra cap space which means Horton does not need to be moved...

 

[Holymakinaw]

yes, it costs them 5.3 mill in offseason cap space, with the benefit being that frees up on day 1 of the season.

or it doesnt affect them in the offseason, but they dont get to free it up on day 1.

they have to choose if they'd rather have their hands tied before the season or during it

Or it won't bother them at all, as they'll likely let a few overpaid guys walk and trade a 40 year old winger to a team needing to reach the floor, to free up lots of space. It's a pretty easy fix, Guy.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Does Horton's contract actually impact the Leafs? It seems like it's just creative bookkeeping to make sure his cap hit doesn't affect the team once the season starts.

Hope vs Reality. I seem to hope something will be possible so that's what I'll believe.

There is lots of solid posts that explain various angles if you choose to read/acknowledge them. The only thing that seems to be true with what I believe after digging into it, is it's more complicated than it appears to most. Told you before and will tell you again. Why did the Blackhawks move the Hossa contract if it seems to be just creative bookkeeping as a way to work around it?

The truth gravitates towards it being complicated vs simple.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Or it won't bother them at all, as they'll likely let a few overpaid guys walk and trade a 40 year old winger to a team needing to reach the floor, to free up lots of space. It's a pretty easy fix, Guy.

Sorry buddy. Marleau has a full NMC and has been a productive player and good locker room guy. He's going nowhere.