Narrative Analysis: Leafs D sucks & goalie saves them

[Bluelines]

A super simple analysis for a super simple narrative:

Shots Against Per Game

5.NSH 28.6

18.BOS 31.3
20.WSH 32.0
22.TBL 32.2
23.TOR 32.7
24.WPG 32.9
26.PIT 33.3


Team Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.7
3.WPG 91.55
4.TOR 91.49

7.NSH 91.14
8.TBL 91.11

10.Pit 90.98
11.Wsh 90.89


in a stunning turn of events, the narrative that the leafs are more goalie-dependant than other contenders is horsepoop.

Myopic, inane, otiose analysis, I'd say your better than this but I'm not a liar.

 

[Pookie]

"Scoring chance" is such a misleading name, as that particular stat even counts low quality shots from the outside as a"scoring chance," the "high danger chances" stat is a much better stat to use when measuring a team's capability of limiting true scoring chances since it is far more selective; shots off rebound, rush chances and shots/deflection from the crease are what categorize as high danger opportunities. Leafs 5 vs 5 high danger chances against per 60 is actually be 14th in the league, definitely not very impressive by any means but it isn't abysmal either.

They count high, mid and low danger.

Keep in mind the definition of high danger. It’s typically a shot taken from right in front of the net, the light green area. It could also come from the pink area if it was a shot then a rebound.

The fact we do ok with HDSA could also be related to Freddy’s play in that he doesn’t give up the rebounds. Sorry zeke but the narrative may be alive and well.

Medium danger shots are all in the pink area.

Leafs are the worst team in the league for MDSA (Medium Danger Shots Against) opportunities given up.

Suggests we really do need to focus on D. Or keeping the offense stoked and Freddy healthy.

Either way, it’s a weakness.

 

[DoobieDubas]

quality of shots matters not shots...look at carolina

 

[Pookie]

quality of shots matters not shots...look at carolina

Conversion definitely matters. Carolina creates chances and can’t bury them.

Imagine for us where we’d be if Freddy was below average?

 

[egd27]

We're actually tied for 11th in the league when it comes to high danger chances against. Maybe the eye is a bit deceiving when we focus so hard on some of our defensive collapses.

What site?

Naturalstattrick has us at 20th in HDCA

 

[DoobieDubas]

Conversion definitely matters. Carolina creates chances and can’t bury them.

Imagine for us where we’d be if Freddy was below average?

ya we give up crazy high percentage shots off the cycle and give up more point shots than any team because our forwards dont cover the point. Super frustrating. Thank the hockey lords for freddy.

 

[Pookie]

What site?

Naturalstattrick has us at 20th in HDCA

He’s saying 11th best.

Think you are talking about the same thing.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Conversion definitely matters. Carolina creates chances and can’t bury them.

Imagine for us where we’d be if Freddy was below average?

Mcillerney had a better GAA and save % then Freddie last year. So apparently the Leafs were bailed out by their goalies ALL 82 games last year (I don't believe itmyself)

 

[lebdafor norris]

They count high, mid and low danger.

Keep in mind the definition of high danger. It’s typically a shot taken from right in front of the net, the light green area. It could also come from the pink area if it was a shot then a rebound.

The fact we do ok with HDSA could also be related to Freddy’s play in that he doesn’t give up the rebounds. Sorry zeke but the narrative may be alive and well.

Medium danger shots are all in the pink area.

Leafs are the worst team in the league for MDSA (Medium Danger Shots Against) opportunities given up.

Suggests we really do need to focus on D. Or keeping the offense stoked and Freddy healthy.

Either way, it’s a weakness.

High danger being chances of the rush as well (even if its from the pink area). The only thing is medium scoring chance is just way too similar to just regular shots against for example; their is a difference of 3 shots between Gards(32.57 SA), Hainsey (35.65 SA) and Zait's (31.21 SA) per 60 shots against and scoring chance against, around 4 for Dermott and 5 for Rielly, thats hardly any difference at all since all that stat do is remove undeflected shots from the point or shots on net from very weird angles. Your point about Freddy's great rebound control is very legitimate thou, we might very well see the Leafs' high danger shots increase significantly if Freddy were to revert to his October form or if Sparks were to taker over.

One thing the Leafs could definitely use is a better partner for Rielly, the Leafs top pair is giving up ~13.4 high danger chances against per 60 compare to the 2nd pair which gives up ~10.7 in that department. Even after you take QOC into consideration that is still a pretty significant diff and I think a lot of it boils with Hainsey not being able to handle those top pairing minutes anymore. Last year they did alright defensively, Hainsey was even in the 81st percentile in breaking up opposing possession in the defensive blueline which really allowed Rielly to take more chances in the O zone since Ron had been fairly reliable but this year Hainsey has (IMO) looked older and slower, he just hasn't been as effective in getting back into position to deny/limit a rush opportunity like he was last year.

 

[zeke]

What do you expect to gain by moving Dermott up with Rielly who has to be the Norris front-runner, right now, and how do you think that will affect the 3rd pairing?

I would expect to both improve our top pairing and to play them more minutes, which would be the biggest upgrade possible on this team.

The 3rd pair might be weakened, but they would also play less to mitigate it...and really, I think Ron would look more than fine on the bottom pair.

And to make up for the loss of puck movement on the bottom pair, we can look to a call up of a kid like Liljegren, like Dubas said. A Hainsey-Lilly pair may well be every bit as good as a dermott-ozzy pair. maybe even better.

 

[zeke]

Yeah, I am. What kind of ****in' moron wouldn't?

there are certain posters who will hunt down any stat that fits their narrative, no matter whether they liked that stat before. they will thrn drop the new stat as soon as it no longer fits their narrative.

which is why in this thread we now hilariously have a number of analytics-mockers now dismissing goals and shots, even though they used them regularly and recently, and are now shamelessly embracing (certain) analytics as if they've always embraced them.

I recommend not engaging them unless they commit to being honest in their arguments.

 

[zeke]

Update

TOR: 2.78gaa (#6)
TBL: 2.92gaa (#15)

 

[Liminality]

What site?

Naturalstattrick has us at 20th in HDCA

Woops, we have 40 HDGA at 5 on 5. That puts us now tied for 9th lowest.

Think that's what I was looking at. Were 18th in HDCA.

 

[Peiskos]

I can say this until I am blue in the face, THERE IS A BITTER HATED for the Leafs, it is rooted in jealously due to the media attention our team receives and how their teams are all ignored and deemed irrelevant.

They will always be something for them to say, people need to realize that the Leafs simultaneously have the MOST FANS, and the MOST HATERS of any team in the league by a landslide. The Toronto Maple Leafs are the most polarizing and popular hockey team in the HISTORY of the entire world. There has never and WILL NEVER be a team more popular than the Leafs, this fact is what makes them enraged, its what makes their blood boil. It also angers them that we are such loyal fans.

I am legitimately convinced that if the Leafs win the cup there will still be bitter haters saying things like "Oh well the had an easy route to the final it doesn't really count."

These peoples lives are consumed by the Leafs, this is what makes us so special..to think that a team that hasn't won a cup since 1967 still receives more attention than every cup winner. That says it all.

Let them cry, a niagara falls level amount of tears are in their future as this team continues to mature and get ever better.

 

[ZippityDooDa]

This is so entertaining. Like if everyone was arguring about whether my girlfriend was super-hot or not. I gotta get laid.

 

[ZippityDooDa]

In reality it's more like an atheist trying to disprove the existence of god to a religious nut.

 

[Pookie]

Update

TOR: 2.78gaa (#6)
TBL: 2.92gaa (#15)

So we have a good goalie???

Thanks for coming out.

 

[Pookie]

there are certain posters who will hunt down any stat that fits their narrative, no matter whether they liked that stat before. they will thrn drop the new stat as soon as it no longer fits their narrative.

which is why in this thread we now hilariously have a number of analytics-mockers now dismissing goals and shots, even though they used them regularly and recently, and are now shamelessly embracing (certain) analytics as if they've always embraced them.

I recommend not engaging them unless they commit to being honest in their arguments.

Pretty weak.

Especially for an analytics “expert”

We all know Scoring chances are more statistically reliable. You should know it too.

And curiously you keep posting goals against as some measure of Defense when your hypothesis is that we don’t rely on the goalie.

Shouldn’t you use a metric that removes the goalie from the equation if you are trying to say our Defense is solid and doesn’t rely on goaltending?

Of course you should.

The saddest part isn’t your error. It’s your arrogance to not want to correct the record using the thing you profess to be an expert at.

Weak.

 

[Bluelines]

Pretty weak.

Especially for an analytics “expert”

We all know Scoring chances are more statistically reliable. You should know it too.

And curiously you keep posting goals against as some measure of Defense when your hypothesis is that we don’t rely on the goalie.

Shouldn’t you use a metric that removes the goalie from the equation if you are trying to say our Defense is solid and doesn’t rely on goaltending?

Of course you should.

The saddest part isn’t your error. It’s your arrogance to not want to correct the record using the thing you profess to be an expert at.

Weak.

OK lets remove the trollie OP out of the conversation , clearly he's been focused on trolling you more than having an honest discussion about QOS or QOP.

99.9% of fans would agree QOS (Quality of shot) is more important to a win/loss than just SOG. I think most fans would also agree that QOP (Quality of Player) would influence win/loss too. This is not a knock on Babcock, I do wonder if type of System comes into play with how many quality shots our opponents get. For those of us that had the unfortunate experience of watching the NJD play during their cup runs, they played a system that choked the life out of their opponent, I'm guessing, I have not checked, their system would probably have them among the best in the league in limiting quality chances, granted they had 5 future HOFer's on those teams, so I suppose you could also say it was QOP too.

I'm not 100% confident that the system we play is the type that will allow us to ever be a team with low QOS. Is there a QOS Against/60 metric for each individual player? It would tell us if QOP influences QOS, IE if Matthews has a high QOS/60, knowing Matthews is a great 2 way player, it would probably tell us that QOP is not as influential as Quality of System.

Totally spit balling...

 

[sessiroth]

LD side Rielly, Gardiner, Dermott...... Looks real good.

RD Hainsey, Zaitsev, Orzg.......... Not so much.

We have 5 stars out of 5 at every position except RD side. If we can add a decent top 4 RD to push them a down the order it would help but I don't want to pay an arm and a leg to get it.

 

[Brobust]

It is interesting that everyone says TB has the edge on D, yet we've actually given up 3 less goals.

TB has the edge because Hedman is probably a top 2 or 3 defence man in the NHL. But 2-6, Toronto has the edge.

McDonagh is overrated now, Stralman isn't the same player he was 2-3 years ago, Sergachev is vastly overrated.

 

[Pookie]

OK lets remove the trollie OP out of the conversation , clearly he's been focused on trolling you more than having an honest discussion about QOS or QOP.

99.9% of fans would agree QOS (Quality of shot) is more important to a win/loss than just SOG. I think most fans would also agree that QOP (Quality of Player) would influence win/loss too. This is not a knock on Babcock, I do wonder if type of System comes into play with how many quality shots our opponents get. For those of us that had the unfortunate experience of watching the NJD play during their cup runs, they played a system that choked the life out of their opponent, I'm guessing, I have not checked, their system would probably have them among the best in the league in limiting quality chances, granted they had 5 future HOFer's on those teams, so I suppose you could also say it was QOP too.

I'm not 100% confident that the system we play is the type that will allow us to ever be a team with low QOS. Is there a QOS Against/60 metric for each individual player? It would tell us if QOP influences QOS, IE if Matthews has a high QOS/60, knowing Matthews is a great 2 way player, it would probably tell us that QOP is not as influential as Quality of System.

For there to actually be a quality of system, wouldn’t that assume that each player, each line plays the same system game in, game out? All stages of a game (leading, tied, trailing?).

And if those assumptions held, rating those systems some way... say the left wing lock vs the torpedo.

Seems impossible.

But you can look at quality of shots for and against each player while on the ice.

Totally spit balling...

It’s a good attempt...

 

[razkaz]

They count high, mid and low danger.

Keep in mind the definition of high danger. It’s typically a shot taken from right in front of the net, the light green area. It could also come from the pink area if it was a shot then a rebound.

The fact we do ok with HDSA could also be related to Freddy’s play in that he doesn’t give up the rebounds. Sorry zeke but the narrative may be alive and well.

Medium danger shots are all in the pink area.

Leafs are the worst team in the league for MDSA (Medium Danger Shots Against) opportunities given up.

Suggests we really do need to focus on D. Or keeping the offense stoked and Freddy healthy.

Either way, it’s a weakness.

High Danger shot is not based on the location of the shot attempt but rather the value of the scoring chance.

From Naturalstattrick:
"Each shot attempt (Corsi) taken in the offensive zone is assigned a value based on the area of the zone in which it was recorded. Attempts made from the attacking team's neutral or defensive zones are excluded.
Attempts from the yellow areas are assigned a value of 1, attempts from the red areas are assigned a value of 2, and attempts in the green area are assigned a value of 3.
Add 1 to this value if the attempt is considered a rush shot or a rebound. A rebound is any attempt made within 3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without a stoppage in play in between. A rush shot is any attempt within 4 seconds of any event in the neutral or defensive zone without a stoppage in play in between (originally defined by David Johnson on the now-offline Hockey Analysis, and modified to 4 seconds by War-on-Ice).
Decrease this value by 1 if it was a blocked shot.
Any attempt with a score of 2 or higher is considered a scoring chance."

Based on this knowledge, let's see where Toronto ranks in each type of scoring chance:
Toronto is ranked 8th in the league with 7.52 High Danger Shots Against/60, tied with TBL at number 7
Toronto is ranked 29th in the league with 9.06 Medium Danger Shots Against/60, TBL is 30th with 9.19
Toronto is ranked 29th in the league with 14.38 Low Danger Shots Against/60, TBL is 6th with 11.62
What this means is that Toronto gives up a lot Low Danger Scoring Chances which has a value of 1 or less as well as Medium Danger Scoring Chances which has a value of exactly 2.

If we want to simplify even further, we can look at Scoring Chances Shots Against/60 which only includes Scoring Chances with a value of 2 or more
Toronto is 21st in the league with 16.58 SCSA/60, TBL is 24th with 16.71 SCSA/60.

But wait, there's more!

Toronto is ranked 10th with a 97.72 Low Danger Save%
Toronto is ranked 5th with a 93.84 Medium Danger Save%
Toronto is ranked 19th with a 82.53 High Danger Save%

So Toronto actually has slightly better than average goal tending to bail them out of prime scoring chances against while relying on some superb goal tending in non-prime scoring chances.

All of this to say that I still think there is a need to improve the defense but to say they are a tire fire is kind of misleading. They lack the ability to move the puck cleanly out of the D zone (Rielly is perfecting this with each game) and they have an inability to stop a cycle in their zone..

 

[Nineteen67]

High Danger shot is not based on the location of the shot attempt but rather the value of the scoring chance.

From Naturalstattrick:
"Each shot attempt (Corsi) taken in the offensive zone is assigned a value based on the area of the zone in which it was recorded. Attempts made from the attacking team's neutral or defensive zones are excluded.
Attempts from the yellow areas are assigned a value of 1, attempts from the red areas are assigned a value of 2, and attempts in the green area are assigned a value of 3.
Add 1 to this value if the attempt is considered a rush shot or a rebound. A rebound is any attempt made within 3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without a stoppage in play in between. A rush shot is any attempt within 4 seconds of any event in the neutral or defensive zone without a stoppage in play in between (originally defined by David Johnson on the now-offline Hockey Analysis, and modified to 4 seconds by War-on-Ice).
Decrease this value by 1 if it was a blocked shot.
Any attempt with a score of 2 or higher is considered a scoring chance."

Based on this knowledge, let's see where Toronto ranks in each type of scoring chance:
Toronto is ranked 8th in the league with 7.52 High Danger Shots Against/60, tied with TBL at number 7
Toronto is ranked 29th in the league with 9.06 Medium Danger Shots Against/60, TBL is 30th with 9.19
Toronto is ranked 29th in the league with 14.38 Low Danger Shots Against/60, TBL is 6th with 11.62
What this means is that Toronto gives up a lot Low Danger Scoring Chances which has a value of 1 or less as well as Medium Danger Scoring Chances which has a value of exactly 2.

If we want to simplify even further, we can look at Scoring Chances Shots Against/60 which only includes Scoring Chances with a value of 2 or more
Toronto is 21st in the league with 16.58 SCSA/60, TBL is 24th with 16.71 SCSA/60.

But wait, there's more!

Toronto is ranked 10th with a 97.72 Low Danger Save%
Toronto is ranked 5th with a 93.84 Medium Danger Save%
Toronto is ranked 19th with a 82.53 High Danger Save%

So Toronto actually has slightly better than average goal tending to bail them out of prime scoring chances against while relying on some superb goal tending in non-prime scoring chances.

All of this to say that I still think there is a need to improve the defense but to say they are a tire fire is kind of misleading. They lack the ability to move the puck cleanly out of the D zone (Rielly is perfecting this with each game) and they have an inability to stop a cycle in their zone..

I suspect if you factor in the QOP and opponent you’ll see that better players and teams create more chances and take advantage of their scoring chances.

If I was evaluating these stats I’d throw out everything in the first few weeks of the season and against the really bad teams.

 

[Danish]

A super simple analysis for a super simple narrative:

Shots Against Per Game

5.NSH 28.6

18.BOS 31.3
20.WSH 32.0
22.TBL 32.2
23.TOR 32.7
24.WPG 32.9
26.PIT 33.3


Team Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.7
3.WPG 91.55
4.TOR 91.49

7.NSH 91.14
8.TBL 91.11

10.Pit 90.98
11.Wsh 90.89


in a stunning turn of events, the narrative that the leafs are more goalie-dependant than other contenders is horsepoop.

A merry xmas 2 you zeke , from the danish troll, are you Now on the freddy Train? Whats happening are you sick? Get Better and fast! i miss your crazy goalie stats and comments.