Narrative Analysis: Leafs D sucks & goalie saves them

[zeke]

Interesting that you’d just use shots which have such a low correlation to winning.

Most teams win games while being outshot. The Leafs and other good teams keep each other company with this well established fact.

Quality of shot would be an improvement.

Scoring chance metrics have our Leafs at 5th worst overall in terms of SC Against.

Tampa is 13. Boston 29.

I’d say the horse poop is on the cursory denial of what we all see.

While we may give up shots at a similar level, we give up many more scoring chances.

OH hey everybody look who cares about analytics now!

 

[Pookie]

OH hey everybody look who cares about analytics now!

Who said I didn’t?

Quality shot metrics offer more promise than a shot counter... particularly those that are adjusted for score effects.

So, are you conceeding the point on SCA?

 

[zeke]

Who said I didn’t?

Quality shot metrics offer more promise than a shot counter... particularly those that are adjusted for score effects.

So, are you conceeding the point on SCA?

give us some r^2s, pookman!

I'm guessing Rielly has finally convinced you that plus/minus is garbage, too.

 

[Pookie]

give us some r^2s, pookman!

I'm guessing Rielly has finally convinced you that plus/minus is garbage, too.

SCA r2 double that of Corsi.

Narrative continues.

 

[zeke]

SCA r2 double that of Corsi.

Narrative continues.

sounds like you're fudging, pookman.

16.WPG 964sca
22. WSH 1022sca
24. TBL 1025sca
26. TOR 1086sca

this is where pookman tells us he always thought Tbay was a pretender.

 

[Pookie]

sounds like you're fudging, pookman.

16.WPG 964sca
22. WSH 1022sca
24. TBL 1025sca
26. TOR 1086sca

this is where pookman tells us he always thought Tbay was a pretender.

Ohhhh. I see. You want to use ALL Situations. Like being short handed and all that.

Not 5v5 when it’s a unit against another and which shows we definitely have an issue with Defense.

 

[zeke]

Ohhhh. I see. You want to use ALL Situations. Like being short handed and all that.

Not 5v5 when it’s a unit against another and which shows we definitely have an issue with Defense.

they did it, folks!

the leafs have finally converted the pookman to full out #fancystats afficianado!

amazing, these leafs! they can do anything!

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I would like to see high danger zone chances analyzed per team. More particular shots in the blue ice. Overall shots do not mean that much to me. Blue line shots and shots from angles with limited chance to score should be excluded. Some teams play systems that allow for long shots but are tight around their net so as to not allow scorers to get close. The closer the shot to net the better the chance to score.

Rielly has really improved his defensive game this year. It started in game 3 of playoffs last year. He has mentally decided now that he will play a stronger defensive game. It comes with age and a better understanding on the game. It always takes longer for a defender to learn the pro game. He has jumped up now into tier 1 status to me. In playoffs this year he should go 30 minutes a game. He needs a top flight guy with him with a little size and speed to help him out in strength areas where he is a little weaker. Like taking puck from an opposing player on the cycle.

 

[Pookie]

they did it, folks!

the leafs have finally converted the pookman to full out #fancystats afficianado!

amazing, these leafs! they can do anything!

Blah blah. Read sometime.

Are you conceding the point?

You can’t pivot well.

 

[zeke]

Blah blah. Read sometime.

Are you conceding the point?

You can’t pivot well.

I welcome you on board the fancy stats train.

now concede all the stupid arguments you made in the past and we can start fresh.

 

[Bomber0104]

Another classic zeke thread where he cherry-picks stats in order to prove to the world that the Leafs are just THAT much better than they actually are.

When the Leafs are terrible - "Nono, they're actually average..." (insert cherry picked stats)
When the Leafs are average - "Nono, they're actually good..." (insert cherry picked stats)
When the Leafs are good - "Nono, they're actually elite..." (insert cherry picked stats)

Can only imagine the story we'll hear when we actually win a playoff round.

 

[Eb]

I sure wish we'd swap Dermott and Hainsey, and maybe call up Liljegren, before doing anything too rash.

What makes you believe that Lilijren is ready?

 

[zeke]

Another classic zeke thread where he cherry-picks stats in order to prove to the world that the Leafs are just THAT much better than they actually are.

When the Leafs are terrible - "Nono, they're actually average..." (insert cherry picked stats)
When the Leafs are average - "Nono, they're actually good..." (insert cherry picked stats)
When the Leafs are good - "Nono, they're actually elite..." (insert cherry picked stats)

Can only imagine the story we'll hear when we actually win a playoff round.

these past few years have been tough on you, I know.

I'm glad to see you have managed to gut it out and keep going.

 

[Pookie]

I welcome you on board the fancy stats train.

now concede all the stupid arguments you made in the past and we can start fresh.

Ah zeke. I’m not playing your game. I’ve been 100% consistent on the uselessness of Corsi as defined by shots for and shots against. Quality metrics and player health and performance metrics are where it’s at.

Now to the thread:

We either have a problem on D or we don’t.

Why don’t you tell the fine people of this thread what SCA (5v5), a more reliable metric, suggests?

 

[Ryan Michaels]

Well Leafs are near the bottom of the league in shots against and have all of last year as a sample size as well, finishing fourth last(Last year Boston let up 400 less shots than the Leafs). I think its somewhat overblown but I would hardly say that this thread has debunked the narrative that the Leafs are goalie dependent, it looks pretty well supported.

Its clear the defense is not ideal, regardless of what other teams are currently doing. I don't think that this is enough of a detriment to stop the team from contending like some main board posters hope for but lets not pretend its a strength.

 

[zeke]

What makes you believe that Lilijren is ready?

“It’s really unfortunate because he’d been having an excellent season with the Marlies: first pair, first power play, first penalty kill, producing well. Regardless of the Sweden world junior element, it’s disappointing for us because he’s a right-shot defenceman and he moves the puck very well,” said Dubas, before dropping an eyebrow-raiser. “So we’re looking for him to move it and challenge here this season."

 

[Bomber0104]

these past few years have been tough on you, I know.

I'm glad to see you have managed to gut it out and keep going.

I'm happy as a clam with the team, coach, and for the most part the management.

They drafted and developed their own players and presto...team is good before long.

Who woulda thunk it?

 

[zeke]

Ah zeke. I’m not playing your game. I’ve been 100% consistent on the uselessness of Corsi as defined by shots for and shots against. Quality metrics and player health and performance metrics are where it’s at.

Now to the thread:

We either have a problem on D or we don’t.

Why don’t you tell the fine people of this thread what SCA (5v5), a more reliable metric, suggests?

are you now saying that you will consistently rely on scoring chance numbers from here on, or is this just another in your endless moving goalposts that you will spin off of when convenient for your trolling?

and if so, can you show us clearly and specifically that the scoring chance numbers fulfill the r^2 requirements that you used against all the other stats?

 

[Drytoast]

Taking offense over any hockey narrative regarding the leafs on these boards is like taking offense at preschoolers for coloring outside the lines.

Seriously these boards are full of emotional idiots.

I just read the thread "who wins between toronto and boston in a 7 game series" and multiple people declared that until Toronto beats Boston, they are picking Boston.

Which is another way of saying Toronto doesn't beat Boston until they beat Boston.

Bold.

 

[Bomber0104]

What makes you believe that Lilijren is ready?

Zeke's a season ticket holder to the Marlies, attends all their practices, and has a direct line to what their coaching staff thinks about him.

Kidding..

Zeke looked at his hockeydb point totals page and determined he's scored enough points in the AHL to play for the Leafs.

 

[zeke]

Zeke's a season ticket holder to the Marlies, attends all their practices, and has a direct line to what their coaching staff thinks about him.

Kidding..

Zeke looked at his hockeydb point totals page and determined he's scored enough points in the AHL to play for the Leafs.

“It’s really unfortunate because he’d been having an excellent season with the Marlies: first pair, first power play, first penalty kill, producing well. Regardless of the Sweden world junior element, it’s disappointing for us because he’s a right-shot defenceman and he moves the puck very well,” said Dubas, before dropping an eyebrow-raiser. “So we’re looking for him to move it and challenge here this season."


it sure is nice to have a gm that agrees with zeke for a change.

 

[stickty111]

“It’s really unfortunate because he’d been having an excellent season with the Marlies: first pair, first power play, first penalty kill, producing well. Regardless of the Sweden world junior element, it’s disappointing for us because he’s a right-shot defenceman and he moves the puck very well,” said Dubas, before dropping an eyebrow-raiser. “So we’re looking for him to move it and challenge here this season."


it sure is nice to have a gm that agrees with zeke for a change.

Lilly
CF%: 56.8(2nd among regular d man)
CF%REL: 1.5(1st among regular d man)
CF60: 58.3(1st among regular d man)
CA60: 44.3(5th among regular d man)
OZ%: 32.2(lowest among regular d man)

The stats agree with the GM and Zeke.

 

[Pookie]

Lilly
CF%: 56.8(2nd among regular d man)
CF%REL: 1.5(1st among regular d man)
CF60: 58.3(1st among regular d man)
CA60: 44.3(5th among regular d man)
OZ%: 32.2(lowest among regular d man)

The stats agree with the GM and Zeke.

CF is not a reliable metric.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...etter-stats-available/?utm_term=.41a13b78cba2

 

[Albi34]

I don't think a stat as broad as shots against is very good at telling the quality of defense. Andersen has been elite this year and with an average goalie it would be a very different picture.

 

[Pookie]

are you now saying that you will consistently rely on scoring chance numbers from here on, or is this just another in your endless moving goalposts that you will spin off of when convenient for your trolling?

and if so, can you show us clearly and specifically that the scoring chance numbers fulfill the r^2 requirements that you used against all the other stats?

Either we have an issue or we don’t.

You are a self professed stats guy. The Scoring Chance stats are more reliable than Corsi.

That’s not me saying it. That’s what the facts show.

The facts show we give up many more scoring chances than other top tier teams.

We have more in common with bottom feeders in that area

Which really points to the fact that we rely on offence and goaltending to win games.

This is opposite to your original point.

A thoughtful man would say, hmm, ok, didn’t think about that. I stand corrected.

Or you could be exposed as a hypocrite with a petty desire to be right that trumps (pun intended) your desire to find insight and truth.

Your call.

The evidence is overwhelmingly in favour of the fact we have some work to do on D.

Where do you stand zeke?