Narrative Analysis: Leafs D sucks & goalie saves them

[DarkKnight]

I agree. Its amazing we were winning last year even though Mac was in net.
No need to relax with the narrative.

Weak.

 

[stickty111]

Weak.

Strong.
Did you spell wack wrong?

 

[Mr Hockey]

I sure wish we'd swap Dermott and Hainsey, and maybe call up Liljegren, before doing anything too rash.

What do you expect to gain by moving Dermott up with Rielly who has to be the Norris front-runner, right now, and how do you think that will affect the 3rd pairing?

 

[DarkKnight]

Strong.
Did you spell wack wrong?

Bye.

 

[stickty111]

Bye.

Crosby made a mistake of not shooting high enough.
Even below average goalies can make saves like that once in a while as proven in the video.
Bye

 

[stickty111]

Bye.

Goodbye

 

[Havoc]

Rielly's +26 says what up.

 

[Pookie]

We've only allowed 8 more goals than the team with the fewest goals against.

Let's say hypothetically that we allowed 8 less goals. Would that be enough to think we are adequate defensively, instead of bad? Because we'd have allowed the fewest goals in the league. What would it take to be good, or even great defensively? Shutouts for the rest of the year?

This doesn't make any ****in' sense.

You are using goals as a measure of Defense.

So we have to include goaltending performance in that metric.

If you use Scoring Chances Against we remove goaltending from the picture.

Zeke tried to debunk the narrative that we relied on goaltending. You can’t do that if you use stats that include goaltending in the metric.

 

[Daisy Jane]

the D doesn't suck, but to deny that it wouldn't benefit from some help not coming from a rookie, mind you , doesn't make sense to me.

 

[Joey Hoser]

You are using goals as a measure of Defense.

Yeah, I am. What kind of f***in' moron wouldn't?

 

[Vaive50]

A super simple analysis for a super simple narrative:

Shots Against Per Game

5.NSH 28.6

18.BOS 31.3
20.WSH 32.0
22.TBL 32.2
23.TOR 32.7
24.WPG 32.9
26.PIT 33.3


Team Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.7
3.WPG 91.55
4.TOR 91.49

7.NSH 91.14
8.TBL 91.11

10.Pit 90.98
11.Wsh 90.89


in a stunning turn of events, the narrative that the leafs are more goalie-dependant than other contenders is horsepoop.

You should post this on the Mains, I'd love to hear the whining there. Even though Pookie has a point in that simple shots are not the same as giving more scoring chances but the fact is that most non-Leaf fans that complain about how weak our D is go by those simple shot numbers. If our D is really as bad as the haters say it is, then Freddy should automatically get the Vezina, but who got it last year, Rhinne who plays on the team that always has the best D.

It's really funny how people can whine that we rely too much on Freddy to save our games for us, I mean when you look back and today at it, yeah great teams usually have great goalies. How many cups would the Devils have won without Brodeur. It's part of the game as always has been, it's why we seek good goalies. All those Montreal cups with HOF's Ken Dryden and Patrick Roy were still great teams without those HOF goalies. There are too many examples but once it's the Leafs turn to shine, the haters have to find something to whine about. Even our most-recent best years were with the HOF goalies (Eddie Belfour, Curtis Joseph). The only team that can basically play with an empty net and still win because of their crazy offense were Gretzky's Oilers.

 

[Joey Hoser]

the D doesn't suck, but to deny that it wouldn't benefit from some help not coming from a rookie, mind you , doesn't make sense to me.

I agree with this too. The fact that our team is top 10 defensively, with obvious room for improvement in that area, and the cap space and resources to make that improvement, is a very good situation IMO.

 

[Pookie]

Yeah, I am. What kind of ****in' moron wouldn't?

Apparently no one you hang with.

 

[Pookie]

You should post this on the Mains, I'd love to hear the whining there. Even though Pookie has a point in that simple shots are not the same as giving more scoring chances but the fact is that most non-Leaf fans that complain about how weak our D is go by those simple shot numbers. If our D is really as bad as the haters say it is, then Freddy should automatically get the Vezina, but who got it last year, Rhinne who plays on the team that always has the best D.

It's really funny how people can whine that we rely too much on Freddy to save our games for us, I mean when you look back and today at it, yeah great teams usually have great goalies. How many cups would the Devils have won without Brodeur. It's part of the game as always has been, it's why we seek good goalies. All those Montreal cups with HOF's Ken Dryden and Patrick Roy were still great teams without those HOF goalies. There are too many examples but once it's the Leafs turn to shine, the haters have to find something to whine about. Even our most-recent best years were with the HOF goalies (Eddie Belfour, Curtis Joseph). The only team that can basically play with an empty net and still win because of their crazy offense were Gretzky's Oilers.

I think he'd get roasted.

Good teams rely on good goaltending there is no shame in this.

The real narrative is that our superior offense, which generates significant scoring chances, is enough to overcome our relatively weak D which gives up a significant number of scoring chances.

If you look at the differential between SCFor and SCAgainst, we net out at a +23. Good enough for 13th overall. But we've got a long way to go.

Considering the debate on these boards about strength down the middle countering weakness on D... this shouldn't be surprising.

Data below is sorted by Scoring Chance Differential.

Rank	Team	SCF	SCA	SC Differential
1	Carolina Hurricanes	933	707	226
2	Vegas Golden Knights	933	756	177
3	San Jose Sharks	920	751	169
4	Tampa Bay Lightning	934	766	168
5	Minnesota Wild	729	610	119
6	Montreal Canadiens	873	765	108
7	Calgary Flames	804	722	82
8	Nashville Predators	775	701	74
9	Boston Bruins	731	681	50
10	Colorado Avalanche	771	730	41
11	Pittsburgh Penguins	798	760	38
12	Philadelphia Flyers	685	655	30
13	Toronto Maple Leafs	895	872	23
14	Winnipeg Jets	741	724	17
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	769	754	15
16	Florida Panthers	681	686	-5
17	New Jersey Devils	726	732	-6
18	Los Angeles Kings	735	754	-19
19	Washington Capitals	751	777	-26
20	Arizona Coyotes	735	766	-31
21	St Louis Blues	692	736	-44
22	Edmonton Oilers	734	789	-55
23	New York Islanders	702	772	-70
24	Chicago Blackhawks	864	935	-71
25	Dallas Stars	726	800	-74
26	Buffalo Sabres	665	769	-104
27	Detroit Red Wings	731	858	-127
28	New York Rangers	657	795	-138
29	Ottawa Senators	713	877	-164
30	Vancouver Canucks	710	911	-201
31	Anaheim Ducks	729	931	-202

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The data above shows that Jets' fans shouldn't be talking smack and Sabres' fans should be really, really quiet.

 

[Zybalto]

Last year, Washington was one of the worst teams in the league when it came to giving up scoring chances, especially high danger chances (30th in the league). They have improved marginally this year (only 29th in HD chances allowed) but are still a great team....as are we.

Differential is what matters.

 

[IPS]

CF is not a reliable metric.

When used in conjunction with the right stats and context, it absolutely is. Be a little more open minded.

 

[Liminality]

I like the high danger chances stat for seeing if the Leafs are giving up quality shots on a nightly basis. Leafs are tied for 2nd most high danger chances in the league (behind Tampa by 6) and are tied for 11th with the Rangers, Arizona and Minnesota for high danger chances against. (Tampa is 26th)

Our high danger chance % overall? 56.99%, only 2nd to Boston who don't get high danger chances but also don't give up a lot of high danger chances. It seems that the Leafs defense more often than not are helping the goalies face less high quality shots.

I'm curious to see what the expected goals against is for the Leafs goaltenders.

 

[Pookie]

When used in conjunction with the right stats and context, it absolutely is. Be a little more open minded.

If you make up it's reliability... then it is.

Continuing to use it isn't an example of an open mind... more like the absence of one.

 

[TimPeel]

haha... if the "journalists" in this city looked at the stats they would be worried for their propects of future employment, which is why they want to mould the team in their image. It is weird though, seems to me the media in this city want this team to fail.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I think it’s a matter of the leafs defence looking bad on paper (defensively anyways), but Babcock’s system can make a competent d core out of lacklustre players.

I’d be interested in seeing high quality scoring chances given up by the leafs compared to other teams. I think we might be pretty good in that area.

 

[luvdahattymatty]

I think he'd get roasted.

Good teams rely on good goaltending there is no shame in this.

The real narrative is that our superior offense, which generates significant scoring chances, is enough to overcome our relatively weak D which gives up a significant number of scoring chances.

If you look at the differential between SCFor and SCAgainst, we net out at a +23. Good enough for 13th overall. But we've got a long way to go.

Considering the debate on these boards about strength down the middle countering weakness on D... this shouldn't be surprising.

Data below is sorted by Scoring Chance Differential.

Rank	Team	SCF	SCA	SC Differential
1	Carolina Hurricanes	933	707	226
2	Vegas Golden Knights	933	756	177
3	San Jose Sharks	920	751	169
4	Tampa Bay Lightning	934	766	168
5	Minnesota Wild	729	610	119
6	Montreal Canadiens	873	765	108
7	Calgary Flames	804	722	82
8	Nashville Predators	775	701	74
9	Boston Bruins	731	681	50
10	Colorado Avalanche	771	730	41
11	Pittsburgh Penguins	798	760	38
12	Philadelphia Flyers	685	655	30
13	Toronto Maple Leafs	895	872	23
14	Winnipeg Jets	741	724	17
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	769	754	15
16	Florida Panthers	681	686	-5
17	New Jersey Devils	726	732	-6
18	Los Angeles Kings	735	754	-19
19	Washington Capitals	751	777	-26
20	Arizona Coyotes	735	766	-31
21	St Louis Blues	692	736	-44
22	Edmonton Oilers	734	789	-55
23	New York Islanders	702	772	-70
24	Chicago Blackhawks	864	935	-71
25	Dallas Stars	726	800	-74
26	Buffalo Sabres	665	769	-104
27	Detroit Red Wings	731	858	-127
28	New York Rangers	657	795	-138
29	Ottawa Senators	713	877	-164
30	Vancouver Canucks	710	911	-201
31	Anaheim Ducks	729	931	-202

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The data above shows that Jets' fans shouldn't be talking smack and Sabres' fans should be really, really quiet.

Gramps here. Great stats. My eye test has always told me we give up far too many high danger scoring chances against. It looks like we are bottom 5 in NHL in that area. But we have solid tending to make up for a weak defense so a decent GAA. When our goalie gets a case of the nerves we lose. He can't get the nerves when we play Boston again.
But we are top 5 in creating great high danger chances on offence. And we have the best finishers so we score more than everyone else with our great chances.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

haha... if the "journalists" in this city looked at the stats they would be worried for their propects of future employment, which is why they want to mould the team in their image. It is weird though, seems to me the media in this city want this team to fail.

It’s weird... when the leafs were the embarrassment of all humanity, the media wasn’t “negative”, they were just honest. Pointing out all of the horrible terrible borderline evil blunders done by leaf management sold a lot of papers and generated a lot of clicks.

I think a large number of fans still have some form of ptsd based on what this team did to them, and the negative press still sells. Some fans think the team is genuinely cursed, and it’s just a matter of time till everything that’s happening all falls apart.

When dealing with failure of such a biblical proportion, it’s simply going to take some time until the negative press gets ignored, and the positivity starts getting the clicks the media is looking for.

 

[Liminality]

Gramps here. Great stats. My eye test has always told me we give up far too many high danger scoring chances against. It looks like we are bottom 5 in NHL in that area. But we have solid tending to make up for a weak defense so a decent GAA. When our goalie gets a case of the nerves we lose. He can't get the nerves when we play Boston again.
But we are top 5 in creating great high danger chances on offence. And we have the best finishers so we score more than everyone else with our great chances.

We're actually tied for 11th in the league when it comes to high danger chances against. Maybe the eye is a bit deceiving when we focus so hard on some of our defensive collapses.

 

[Menzinger]

edit: deleted

not worth having this argument yet again

 

[lebdafor norris]

I think he'd get roasted.

Good teams rely on good goaltending there is no shame in this.

The real narrative is that our superior offense, which generates significant scoring chances, is enough to overcome our relatively weak D which gives up a significant number of scoring chances.

If you look at the differential between SCFor and SCAgainst, we net out at a +23. Good enough for 13th overall. But we've got a long way to go.

Considering the debate on these boards about strength down the middle countering weakness on D... this shouldn't be surprising.

Data below is sorted by Scoring Chance Differential.

Rank	Team	SCF	SCA	SC Differential
1	Carolina Hurricanes	933	707	226
2	Vegas Golden Knights	933	756	177
3	San Jose Sharks	920	751	169
4	Tampa Bay Lightning	934	766	168
5	Minnesota Wild	729	610	119
6	Montreal Canadiens	873	765	108
7	Calgary Flames	804	722	82
8	Nashville Predators	775	701	74
9	Boston Bruins	731	681	50
10	Colorado Avalanche	771	730	41
11	Pittsburgh Penguins	798	760	38
12	Philadelphia Flyers	685	655	30
13	Toronto Maple Leafs	895	872	23
14	Winnipeg Jets	741	724	17
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	769	754	15
16	Florida Panthers	681	686	-5
17	New Jersey Devils	726	732	-6
18	Los Angeles Kings	735	754	-19
19	Washington Capitals	751	777	-26
20	Arizona Coyotes	735	766	-31
21	St Louis Blues	692	736	-44
22	Edmonton Oilers	734	789	-55
23	New York Islanders	702	772	-70
24	Chicago Blackhawks	864	935	-71
25	Dallas Stars	726	800	-74
26	Buffalo Sabres	665	769	-104
27	Detroit Red Wings	731	858	-127
28	New York Rangers	657	795	-138
29	Ottawa Senators	713	877	-164
30	Vancouver Canucks	710	911	-201
31	Anaheim Ducks	729	931	-202

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The data above shows that Jets' fans shouldn't be talking smack and Sabres' fans should be really, really quiet.

"Scoring chance" is such a misleading name, as that particular stat even counts low quality shots from the outside as a"scoring chance," the "high danger chances" stat is a much better stat to use when measuring a team's capability of limiting true scoring chances since it is far more selective; shots off rebound, rush chances and shots/deflection from the crease are what categorize as high danger opportunities. Leafs 5 vs 5 high danger chances against per 60 is actually be 14th in the league, definitely not very impressive by any means but it isn't abysmal either.