Narrative Analysis: Leafs D sucks & goalie saves them

[zeke]

Do you want to pretend that I didn't profess the potential benefit of shot quality over the failings of Corsi... say back in 2016?

if you are willing to say that you actually believe that scoring chances for and against is a good and sufficient way to judge teams going forward, then I will engage you in honest debate.

 

[daveleaf]

4-3-0 vs TB WSH WPG NSH BOS so far.

It's a little skewed though. One can say they have an inability to perform well against Boston and TBay. Until they can, I can't think of them as contenders yet. There not far off but they have to get over this hurdle.

 

[Menzinger]

Last year the Leafs gave up an embarrassing 4 goals/game in the playoffs giving up 28 goals in 7 games against the Bruins.

Vegas an expansion team went to the conference finals winning 3 rounds and only giving up 27 goals against to get there.

Leafs didn't do anything to improve their Dcore, but added to the offense in hopes that they can score enough so the defensive mistakes are not their demise.

Freddy needs to get hot come playoff time for Leafs to realistically to go deep in the playoffs.

Though if Freddy had been at least playing at an average level for 1/2 of that series the Leafs GA wouldn’t have been so terrible.

I’m not a huge fan of the leafs defense last season, but they only deserve part of the blame for that series

 

[Nineteen67]

I keep reading the Leafs team is built around outscoring there mistakes and I would disagree.

The Leafs were built with the premise of the best player on the board and over the last number of years when the Leafs were drafting higher, the best players were forwards and centres. Before this regime, Reily was a top pic.

Let's go back to when Mariner was drafted. If we took the best defender at the time we would have taken Hannifin. Where would we be right now if we made that selection? I'm going out on a limb here and going to say fighting for a playoff spot. We would not be as dynamic offensively and I doubt if Tavares makes the switch here knowing he wouldn't have Mariner next to him. So I disagree this team was built to out score problems, this team was built with the best player on the board.

Another problem I see, is that we see how dynamic the offence is and maybe want that same kind of growth and creativity from the back end. We don't have that same amount of high draft pics back there but I think we are pretty good. I think Reilly has turned into a Norris candidate, Dermot is showing he is second pairing material and maybe with an addition and one of the younger guys on the Marlies making a jump, Zaitsev will be put into a more desirable role.

I really don't think we are that far off but I do believe we are a year away from having a defence that is capable of being a Stanley Cup contending team.

Without making any upgrades I think they are a year or two away when Liljegren and Sandin are regular contributors . That assumes they have decent 3rd and 4th lines and goaltending is still solid.

 

[LeafFever]

It's strange how Rielly can be a Norris frontrunner, the Leafs give up way less goals than expected, yet none of the narrative's about the D change.

 

[Bomber0104]

just note that the people making overreaching conclusions with it are many of the same people who have dismissed all shottracking data previously.

Some are inherently better than others (I'd put shot location stats ahead of Corsi in terms of meaningfulness for example), but generally most of the publicly available stats for the masses are used in incredibly ridiculous ways.

I mean look at your OP ...

 

[Pookie]

if you are willing to say that you actually believe that scoring chances for and against is a good and sufficient way to judge teams going forward, then I will engage you in honest debate.

I've always said shot quality metrics offer the most promise. That hasn't changed.

 

[zeke]

3gms vs BOS, 5v5 score adjusted scoring chances

TOR 87.92 (51.0%)
BOS 84.51 (49.0%)

weird.

 

[razkaz]

All I’m saying, If I’m management I’m looking at how the team plays against the better competition when it comes to making player/ trade decision

If Tampa had 0 or only 1 High danger goal for then this stat is inaccurate and useless.

What is the argument you're making here? Your original quote hinted that the numbers and placement of the Leafs relating to scoring chances were skewed based on playing well vs "bad" teams and inaccuracies from the first few weeks of the season.
So I showed you the numbers again, sorry I didn't clarify that it is 5v5 numbers only since we're evaluating the team defense and not special teams, and now you're going on about trade decisions?

The fact is that compared to TBL the "team defense" numbers are similar, except for Low Danger Shots Against which seems kind of silly to me.

HDSA are any shotnwith a value of 3 or more. So taken from the green area automatically qualifies.

Or is my understanding.

If you believe that I’m saying they are a tire fire, my apologies. That is not the intent.

The OP tried to compare us with other contenders. So that’s what I’m doing. Relative to other contenders, we are not necessarily leading the bunch when it comes to SCA.

The picture seems to be one of a great offense and good goaltending making up for a deficiency.

That is true, however 2 more types of shots would also count as High Danger, a shot from the pink area that's off a rebound (3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without stoppage of play) or on a rush (attempt within 4 seconds of any event in the neutral or defensive zone without stoppage).

So that means any shot from the point within 4 second of entering the O zone is considered a Scoring Chance and so is a blocked shot in the blue area. So let's break it down:

SCA/60
2. Nashville 24.42
14. Pittsburgh 26.51
17. Winnipeg 26.62
21. Tampa Bay 27.55.
24. Washington 28.62
25. Toronto 29.12

Looks bad doesn't it? Let's see where Toronto sits with High Danger Scoring Shots Against/60 5v5 compared to these other defensive powerhouses:

HDSA/60 (scoring chance number value of 3 or more)
4. Toronto 7.72
10. Tampa Bay 8.06
14. Nashville 8.25
15. Winnipeg 8.37
21. Pittsburgh 8.57
29. Washington 9.59

Not bad, what about Medium Danger Shots Against/60 5v5 (scoring chance number value of exactly 2)
3. Washington 6.68
10. Nashville 7.51
21. Pittsburgh 8.54
24. Winnipeg 8.74
27. Toronto 9.14
31. Tampa Bay 9.72

Hmm, still not the worst in the league but definitely near the bottom, again these are shots with a value of 2 which could also include shots from the point within 4 seconds on zone entry or even a missed shot that rims around the net for another point shot within 3 seconds or even a blocked shot from the blue area count. Unfortunately there is no way of filtering those shot types from the rest.

Last one. Low Danger Shots Against/60 5v5 (scoring chance number value of exactly 1 or less)
5. Nashville 11.22
12. Tampa Bay 12.48
22. Washington 13.31
23. Winnipeg 13.36
26. Pittsburgh 13.83
27. Toronto 13.84

Once again, point shots that get blocked, shots from the pink area that get blocked or shots from the yellow area all count.

Again, I don't think Scoring Chances no matter their classification is a good indication of the teams defense, as I've stated a couple of times before, their downfall in the D zone comes from the lack of being able to cleanly clear the zone and their ineffectiveness of stopping the other teams cycle.

 

[kb]

Though if Freddy had been at least playing at an average level for 1/2 of that series the Leafs GA wouldn’t have been so terrible.

I’m not a huge fan of the leafs defense last season, but they only deserve part of the blame for that series

Correct. And as I have said repeatedly....several subpar performances all throughout the lineup, missing/injured players (Kadri, Matthews) plus Boston was clicking on all cylinders, yet oddly the Leafs were still leading going into the 3rd period of game 7.

3-1 against them in the regular season, 4-0 against them the season before.

The whole "they aren't good enough to beat Boston" narrative doesn't hold up under any kind of scrutiny.

 

[Mess]

Though if Freddy had been at least playing at an average level for 1/2 of that series the Leafs GA wouldn’t have been so terrible.

I’m not a huge fan of the leafs defense last season, but they only deserve part of the blame for that series

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”

 

[HockeyMad68]

Gramps here. Sorry looked at table someone posted for scoring chances in this thread. It looked to me like we were close to 900 with Ducks and Sens. I tried to count it out and thought we were in bottom 5. Whatever the table says it says maybe it is wrong data I dont know. But I have played and watched hockey in IHL, AHL and NHL for over 60+ years and I know we are the best offensive team in the NHL this season. I played defense many many years ago but some of the things I learned are still true today. I also know we are one of best offensive defensive corps in the NHL. But defensively we are bottom 5 on the defender side of the puck. Watch the games our defenders can't take a heavy forecheck and hold the puck in their skates on the boards while waiting for centre support. Also once we lose the puck our defenders can't remove the opposing player from the puck and take possession back. Those 2 issues are critical for playoff success. They need to be corrected. I have told Shanny this a few weeks ago. He agrees with his old coach. It will be corrected. Some of the stuff we used to do on wall and in front of net are not allowed anymore. Like you dont see a guy getting lifted with stick and removed from the net front which was one of my moves. that was never called ever. You could clear the net for your goalie and dump a guy on the ice. Now if you went for privates and did damage on purpose you got a 2 minute minor. But is was coached like that sometimes early in the game to let opposing teams know that our net was not a safe place to go. But again the game has changed and that all changed in the 1980's.

Thanks for the great insight gramps. Is your name on the Stanley Cup? Do you hail from Wolfe island? I agree we are weak along the walls. We lose races to to the puck way too much and seem to be out of position a lot. Cheers and thanks once again for your input

 

[Pookie]

That is true, however 2 more types of shots would also count as High Danger, a shot from the pink area that's off a rebound (3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without stoppage of play) or on a rush (attempt within 4 seconds of any event in the neutral or defensive zone without stoppage).

So that means any shot from the point within 4 second of entering the O zone is considered a Scoring Chance and so is a blocked shot in the blue area. So let's break it down:

SCA/60
2. Nashville 24.42
14. Pittsburgh 26.51
17. Winnipeg 26.62
21. Tampa Bay 27.55.
24. Washington 28.62
25. Toronto 29.12

Looks bad doesn't it? Let's see where Toronto sits with High Danger Scoring Shots Against/60 5v5 compared to these other defensive powerhouses:

HDSA/60 (scoring chance number value of 3 or more)
4. Toronto 7.72
10. Tampa Bay 8.06
14. Nashville 8.25
15. Winnipeg 8.37
21. Pittsburgh 8.57
29. Washington 9.59

Not bad, what about Medium Danger Shots Against/60 5v5 (scoring chance number value of exactly 2)
3. Washington 6.68
10. Nashville 7.51
21. Pittsburgh 8.54
24. Winnipeg 8.74
27. Toronto 9.14
31. Tampa Bay 9.72

Hmm, still not the worst in the league but definitely near the bottom, again these are shots with a value of 2 which could also include shots from the point within 4 seconds on zone entry or even a missed shot that rims around the net for another point shot within 3 seconds or even a blocked shot from the blue area count. Unfortunately there is no way of filtering those shot types from the rest.

Last one. Low Danger Shots Against/60 5v5 (scoring chance number value of exactly 1 or less)
5. Nashville 11.22
12. Tampa Bay 12.48
22. Washington 13.31
23. Winnipeg 13.36
26. Pittsburgh 13.83
27. Toronto 13.84

Once again, point shots that get blocked, shots from the pink area that get blocked or shots from the yellow area all count.

Again, I don't think Scoring Chances no matter their classification is a good indication of the teams defense, as I've stated a couple of times before, their downfall in the D zone comes from the lack of being able to cleanly clear the zone and their ineffectiveness of stopping the other teams cycle.

There is clearly a weakness to the stats. It's why their r2 is double that of traditional Corsi but we have a ways to go.

Knowing Rebounds factor into HDSA (as do Rushes), we have a few possible areas to explore:

- do the Leafs give up less shots from the HDSA zone than others?
- does our goalie give up less rebounds than others?

One thing I am interested in is why we do well in preventing HD but seemingly open the flood gates with MD. My suspicion is in the Rebound control that Freddy displays. Meaning that we count fewer HD shots against as Freddy just doesn't let it become a dangerous rebound as frequently as others.

To the best of my knowledge though, no one tracks Rebounds by goalie.

I disagree with you a little on Scoring Chances as an indicator of team's defense. If we use goal stats in our analysis, we end up with an inability to isolate goaltending as a variable.

Though not ideal, at least with scoring chances we have a metric that allows us to take out the goalie's performance (somewhat... rebounds?) and have an idea as to how well the defense relates to other top contenders.

It's not the best indicator but it is better than simply using shots.

 

[BlueBaron]

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”

No, that's just a cliché that people usually attribute to Einstein or others to give it fake legitimacy. There are so many exceptions to that it's silly. It's basically drivel.

 

[BlueBaron]

Though if Freddy had been at least playing at an average level for 1/2 of that series the Leafs GA wouldn’t have been so terrible.

I’m not a huge fan of the leafs defense last season, but they only deserve part of the blame for that series

And as always Mess dooms and glooms and ignores the obvious. Our blueline after the top 3 are all rookies or sophomores. So obviously they could never improve right?

 

[Joey Hoser]

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”

Guess we need to trade Matthews, Marner, Rielly, etc.

 

[Pookie]

Though if Freddy had been at least playing at an average level for 1/2 of that series the Leafs GA wouldn’t have been so terrible.

I’m not a huge fan of the leafs defense last season, but they only deserve part of the blame for that series

You are both right.

Leafs D does need to improve.

As we would expect with a young core.

We are investing in outgunning teams. This is how the management expects to overcome the need to improve.

I argue for trading a C for D. People argue against me saying C depth wins games.

If we can perform and outgun opponents, there is a path to success there with s weaker D.

Just need everyone to perform when it counts.

 

[razkaz]

There is clearly a weakness to the stats. It's why their r2 is double that of traditional Corsi but we have a ways to go.

Knowing Rebounds factor into HDSA (as do Rushes), we have a few possible areas to explore:

- do the Leafs give up less shots from the HDSA zone than others?
- does our goalie give up less rebounds than others?

One thing I am interested in is why we do well in preventing HD but seemingly open the flood gates with MD. My suspicion is in the Rebound control that Freddy displays. Meaning that we count fewer HD shots against as Freddy just doesn't let it become a dangerous rebound as frequently as others.

To the best of my knowledge though, no one tracks Rebounds by goalie.

I disagree with you a little on Scoring Chances as an indicator of team's defense. If we use goal stats in our analysis, we end up with an inability to isolate goaltending as a variable.

Though not ideal, at least with scoring chances we have a metric that allows us to take out the goalie's performance (somewhat... rebounds?) and have an idea as to how well the defense relates to other top contenders.

It's not the best indicator but it is better than simply using shots.

So Naturalstatrick does keep track of all the stats in your question. I've filtered it to minimum 500 mins played to reduce the field of goalies. All numbers are 5v5 /60.

Andersen is 13th of all goalies for HD Shots Against/60 so he is average.
Andersen is 16th of all goalies for Rebounds/60, again average. (this stat does not differentiate where the shot came from)

Andersen is 34th of all goalies for HD Goals Saved Above Average at -.08
Andersen is 7th of all goalies for MD Goals Saved Above Average at 0.23
Anderson is 8th of all goalies for LD Goals Saved Above Average at 0.22

What this means is that Andersen faces pretty much the average number of High Danger Chances but does not bail out the team more than the other goalies around the league.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I think in general it gets ignored how talented the leafs dmen are offensively. That's also probably the most important function of defense in today's league

 

[luvdahattymatty]

Without making any upgrades I think they are a year or two away when Liljegren and Sandin are regular contributors . That assumes they have decent 3rd and 4th lines and goaltending is still solid.

Gramps here. I really dont want to beleaf we are a year or two away. I want them to be proactive this season. You never know when it is your last year. But in my heart i feel you may be right and i dont want them to make a stupid deal either.

 

[Marshy]

Gramps here. I really dont want to beleaf we are a year or two away. I want them to be proactive this season. You never know when it is your last year. But in my heart i feel you may be right and i dont want them to make a stupid deal either.

Gramps we need to pee or chuck out the Depends®

 

[luvdahattymatty]

Thanks for the great insight gramps. Is your name on the Stanley Cup? Do you hail from Wolfe island? I agree we are weak along the walls. We lose races to to the puck way too much and seem to be out of position a lot. Cheers and thanks once again for your input

Gramps here. Born at Western hospital and raised downtown. played for Marlboros as a kid. never made it to the show. played in Indi in minors and married a girl there. Moved to Mimico and bought a small house on same street as Rose and Don. Coached Shanny and one of my sons at Faustina. I had great size and strength but not enough wheels to make show. Lets hope Babs can figure things out defensively and Dubie can make a deal to help us out on backend. Go Leafs Go!

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Again, I don't think Scoring Chances no matter their classification is a good indication of the teams defense, as I've stated a couple of times before, their downfall in the D zone comes from the lack of being able to cleanly clear the zone and their ineffectiveness of stopping the other teams cycle.

I think you nailed it. This problem has been a common theme under Babcock as he wants the players to collapse down to the front of the net, leaving the perimeter, mainly the points, wide open. Sure you may initially limit the high danger chances, but a passive style prolongs the cycle game for the opponents, which, in turn, leads to fatigue and mental mistakes for the Leafs and those low quality shots become scoring chances.

 

[Pookie]

So Naturalstatrick does keep track of all the stats in your question. I've filtered it to minimum 500 mins played to reduce the field of goalies. All numbers are 5v5 /60.

Andersen is 13th of all goalies for HD Shots Against/60 so he is average.
Andersen is 16th of all goalies for Rebounds/60, again average. (this stat does not differentiate where the shot came from)

Andersen is 34th of all goalies for HD Goals Saved Above Average at -.08
Andersen is 7th of all goalies for MD Goals Saved Above Average at 0.23
Anderson is 8th of all goalies for LD Goals Saved Above Average at 0.22

What this means is that Andersen faces pretty much the average number of High Danger Chances but does not bail out the team more than the other goalies around the league.

Hey cool. Thanks for sharing.

Can you link me to that report? I looked but came up empty.

My wife calls that “man looking” when I go into the fridge and ask where the milk is. Turns out it was behind something.

 

[authentic]

I think in general it gets ignored how talented the leafs dmen are offensively. That's also probably the most important function of defense in today's league

Exactly. Our defensive core as a whole is one of the better ones but our defensive play is not.