Narrative Analysis: Leafs D sucks & goalie saves them

[zeke]

A super simple analysis for a super simple narrative:

Shots Against Per Game

5.NSH 28.6

18.BOS 31.3
20.WSH 32.0
22.TBL 32.2
23.TOR 32.7
24.WPG 32.9
26.PIT 33.3


Team Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.7
3.WPG 91.55
4.TOR 91.49

7.NSH 91.14
8.TBL 91.11

10.Pit 90.98
11.Wsh 90.89


in a stunning turn of events, the narrative that the leafs are more goalie-dependant than other contenders is horsepoop.

Click to read more...

 

[Leafidelity]

Its about Leafs haters grasping at anything that looks like a straw. This is a second place team, yes we have problems, but clearly not as dire as 29 other teams

 

[Bronxxx]

Same narrative for Winnipeg. No team is perfect. Every team can be upgraded.
Leafs have as good a chance to win as any other team. Offence is high powered and Freddy can be lights out. Many teams have won the Cup doing same. Notably Pittsburgh and even Caps last year. Narrative confirmed,

 

[Joey Hoser]

I've been on this a long time now. 11th best GA last year. Top ten this year.

But it makes people feel mature and responsible to talk about defense regardless, so they'll keep doing it.

 

[DarkKnight]

I'd still like to see us add a D man if an opportunity arises.

 

[zeke]

I'd still like to see us add a D man if an opportunity arises.

I sure wish we'd swap Dermott and Hainsey, and maybe call up Liljegren, before doing anything too rash.

 

[DarkKnight]

I sure wish we'd swap Dermott and Hainsey, and maybe call up Liljegren, before doing anything too rash.

It is interesting that everyone says TB has the edge on D, yet we've actually given up 3 less goals.

 

[X66]

The real narrative should have always been, the Leafs right side is keeping the team from their true potential.

If our right side could make plays, this teams would be killing it possession wise.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I sure wish we'd swap Dermott and Hainsey, and maybe call up Liljegren, before doing anything too rash.

I have a feeling Babcock is clashing with Dubas and wants to add a vet RHD

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I sure wish we'd swap Dermott and Hainsey, and maybe call up Liljegren, before doing anything too rash.

That's most likely a good idea. It makes even more sense given the paucity of defenders available and the returns required to land one that is available. Would ppl here say that Liljegren is dominating this year in the AHL?

 

[Stamkos4life]

A super simple analysis for a super simple narrative:

Shots Against Per Game

5.NSH 28.6

18.BOS 31.3
20.WSH 32.0
22.TBL 32.2
23.TOR 32.7
24.WPG 32.9
26.PIT 33.3


Team Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.7
3.WPG 91.55
4.TOR 91.49

7.NSH 91.14
8.TBL 91.11

10.Pit 90.98
11.Wsh 90.89


in a stunning turn of events, the narrative that the leafs are more goalie-dependant than other contenders is horsepoop.

And yet, according to HF, the jets and bolts are much better teams than us.

Funny how that works eh?

But I wouldn't mind if we allowed less shots against.

 

[deletethis]

The OP title is an extreme strawman of a milder concern about the team.

For those who value advanced stats, the NHL shows the Leafs SAT% standing at 11th best in the league. That's lower than the Leafs' current standings' position. Of course 4 of the teams ahead of the Leafs in SAT% are mediocre NHL teams like Carolina, Montreal, Florida and Philadelphia so I'm not sure what value this measurement actually has.

I do think I see a high number of high quality scoring chances against Andersen many of which he handles like easy saves. Andersen's rebound control appears to have been superb this season (hence no 2nd and 3rd shots that would lower the team's SAT%/Corsi). The games with Sparks in goal do seem like a very different experience, more frantic.

 

[Fogelhund]

A super simple analysis for a super simple narrative:

Shots Against Per Game

5.NSH 28.6

18.BOS 31.3
20.WSH 32.0
22.TBL 32.2
23.TOR 32.7
24.WPG 32.9
26.PIT 33.3


Team Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.7
3.WPG 91.55
4.TOR 91.49

7.NSH 91.14
8.TBL 91.11

10.Pit 90.98
11.Wsh 90.89


in a stunning turn of events, the narrative that the leafs are more goalie-dependant than other contenders is horsepoop.

I'd love to see one of those graphs for each team.. what are they, the heatmaps, for each team... plus, shots on their own... relatively meaningless.... if you surrender 25 shots a game, from non-danger areas, and another 5 shots from a dangerous area, for 30 shots against, while another team surrenders 10 shots from non-danger, and 10 shots from a dangerous area, for 20 shots against... is their 20 shots against, really better than your 30?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I'd love to see one of those graphs for each team.. what are they, the heatmaps, for each team... plus, shots on their own... relatively meaningless.... if you surrender 25 shots a game, from non-danger areas, and another 5 shots from a dangerous area, for 30 shots against, while another team surrenders 10 shots from non-danger, and 10 shots from a dangerous area, for 20 shots against... is their 20 shots against, really better than your 30?

The last heat map for shots I saw for the leafs was pretty bad. A ton of clear cut chances from the slot which also fits in with what I have seen.

This was at least a month ago so may have changed as I haven't seen as many clear cut chances in the slot in recent games.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

A super simple analysis for a super simple narrative:

Shots Against Per Game

5.NSH 28.6

18.BOS 31.3
20.WSH 32.0
22.TBL 32.2
23.TOR 32.7
24.WPG 32.9
26.PIT 33.3


Team Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.7
3.WPG 91.55
4.TOR 91.49

7.NSH 91.14
8.TBL 91.11

10.Pit 90.98
11.Wsh 90.89


in a stunning turn of events, the narrative that the leafs are more goalie-dependant than other contenders is horsepoop.

Often the team with the best performing goalie in the playoffs wins the stanely cup so if the leafs D is as bad as the haters say then Andy must be a God and I'm liking our chances... lol

 

[Nineteen67]

It is interesting that everyone says TB has the edge on D, yet we've actually given up 3 less goals.

How many games did Tampa give up goals with a 2 goal lead? Their play is dictated by the score.
Not to mention their #1 goalie was out for a month.

 

[81Leafs50]

A super simple analysis for a super simple narrative:

Shots Against Per Game

5.NSH 28.6

18.BOS 31.3
20.WSH 32.0
22.TBL 32.2
23.TOR 32.7
24.WPG 32.9
26.PIT 33.3


Team Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.7
3.WPG 91.55
4.TOR 91.49

7.NSH 91.14
8.TBL 91.11

10.Pit 90.98
11.Wsh 90.89


in a stunning turn of events, the narrative that the leafs are more goalie-dependant than other contenders is horsepoop.

good work sir.

 

[Pookie]

A super simple analysis for a super simple narrative:

Shots Against Per Game

5.NSH 28.6

18.BOS 31.3
20.WSH 32.0
22.TBL 32.2
23.TOR 32.7
24.WPG 32.9
26.PIT 33.3


Team Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.7
3.WPG 91.55
4.TOR 91.49

7.NSH 91.14
8.TBL 91.11

10.Pit 90.98
11.Wsh 90.89


in a stunning turn of events, the narrative that the leafs are more goalie-dependant than other contenders is horsepoop.

Interesting that you’d just use shots which have such a low correlation to winning.

Most teams win games while being outshot. The Leafs and other good teams keep each other company with this well established fact.

Quality of shot would be an improvement.

Scoring chance metrics have our Leafs at 5th worst overall in terms of SC Against.

Tampa is 13. Boston 29.

I’d say the horse poop is on the cursory denial of what we all see.

While we may give up shots at a similar level, we give up many more scoring chances.

 

[ULF_55]

Leafs are a very good offensive team, and defensively as good as Arizona.

 

[Pookie]

It is interesting that everyone says TB has the edge on D, yet we've actually given up 3 less goals.

True.

When you learn that we’ve given 122 more scoring chances than Tampa, the edge on D goes back to Tampa and the thank you card goes to Freddy.

 

[Pookie]

Same narrative for Winnipeg. No team is perfect. Every team can be upgraded.
Leafs have as good a chance to win as any other team. Offence is high powered and Freddy can be lights out. Many teams have won the Cup doing same. Notably Pittsburgh and even Caps last year. Narrative confirmed,

I’d like to report this post for being bang on.

 

[Notsince67]

A super simple analysis for a super simple narrative:

Shots Against Per Game

5.NSH 28.6

18.BOS 31.3
20.WSH 32.0
22.TBL 32.2
23.TOR 32.7
24.WPG 32.9
26.PIT 33.3


Team Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.7
3.WPG 91.55
4.TOR 91.49

7.NSH 91.14
8.TBL 91.11

10.Pit 90.98
11.Wsh 90.89


in a stunning turn of events, the narrative that the leafs are more goalie-dependant than other contenders is horsepoop.

That is why I don't think any major defensive moves are in order other than a cap choice of Gardiner or Zaitsev. Both Lili and sandin headed soon to fill build for the future

 

[ULF_55]

True.

When you learn that we’ve given 122 more scoring chances than Tampa, the edge on D goes back to Tampa and the thank you card goes to Freddy.

Well, Domingue has played more than the Lightning starter has.

 

[Notsince67]

I'd love to see one of those graphs for each team.. what are they, the heatmaps, for each team... plus, shots on their own... relatively meaningless.... if you surrender 25 shots a game, from non-danger areas, and another 5 shots from a dangerous area, for 30 shots against, while another team surrenders 10 shots from non-danger, and 10 shots from a dangerous area, for 20 shots against... is their 20 shots against, really better than your 30?

Shots for:
Tableau Public
Shots against
Tableau Public

 

[Pookie]

A super simple analysis for a super simple narrative:

Shots Against Per Game

5.NSH 28.6

18.BOS 31.3
20.WSH 32.0
22.TBL 32.2
23.TOR 32.7
24.WPG 32.9
26.PIT 33.3


Team Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.7
3.WPG 91.55
4.TOR 91.49

7.NSH 91.14
8.TBL 91.11

10.Pit 90.98
11.Wsh 90.89


in a stunning turn of events, the narrative that the leafs are more goalie-dependant than other contenders is horsepoop.

Only the Senators, Ducks, Canucks, and Hawks have given up more Scoring Chances than we have.

This thread reminds me of this:

There’s a reason we don’t make conclusions based on “super simple analysis.”

It was a good try but we give up way too many SCA. We rely on Goaltending and SCF to stick with the big dogs.