Narrative Analysis: Leafs D sucks & goalie saves them

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by zeke, Dec 27, 2018.

  1. zeke

    zeke The Dube Abides

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2005
    Messages:
    50,220
    Likes Received:
    9,612
    Trophy Points:
    201
    A super simple analysis for a super simple narrative:

    Shots Against Per Game

    5.NSH 28.6

    18.BOS 31.3
    20.WSH 32.0
    22.TBL 32.2
    23.TOR 32.7
    24.WPG 32.9
    26.PIT 33.3


    Team Save Percentage

    2.BOS 91.7
    3.WPG 91.55
    4.TOR 91.49

    7.NSH 91.14
    8.TBL 91.11

    10.Pit 90.98
    11.Wsh 90.89


    in a stunning turn of events, the narrative that the leafs are more goalie-dependant than other contenders is horsepoop.
     
  2. Leafidelity

    Leafidelity 16//91 |34| 44\\29

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2008
    Messages:
    34,288
    Likes Received:
    1,951
    Trophy Points:
    187
    Its about Leafs haters grasping at anything that looks like a straw. This is a second place team, yes we have problems, but clearly not as dire as 29 other teams
     
  3. Bronxxx

    Bronxxx Registered User

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2018
    Messages:
    152
    Likes Received:
    155
    Trophy Points:
    33
    Gender:
    Male
    Same narrative for Winnipeg. No team is perfect. Every team can be upgraded.
    Leafs have as good a chance to win as any other team. Offence is high powered and Freddy can be lights out. Many teams have won the Cup doing same. Notably Pittsburgh and even Caps last year. Narrative confirmed,
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2018
  4. Joey Hoser

    Joey Hoser Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2008
    Messages:
    12,293
    Likes Received:
    1,378
    Trophy Points:
    169
    Location:
    Guelph
    I've been on this a long time now. 11th best GA last year. Top ten this year.

    But it makes people feel mature and responsible to talk about defense regardless, so they'll keep doing it.
     
    NoTouchIcing likes this.
  5. DarkKnight

    DarkKnight Opinions

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2017
    Messages:
    10,009
    Likes Received:
    7,522
    Trophy Points:
    141
    Occupation:
    Luge
    Location:
    Ontario
    I'd still like to see us add a D man if an opportunity arises.
     
  6. zeke

    zeke The Dube Abides

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2005
    Messages:
    50,220
    Likes Received:
    9,612
    Trophy Points:
    201
    I sure wish we'd swap Dermott and Hainsey, and maybe call up Liljegren, before doing anything too rash.
     
  7. DarkKnight

    DarkKnight Opinions

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2017
    Messages:
    10,009
    Likes Received:
    7,522
    Trophy Points:
    141
    Occupation:
    Luge
    Location:
    Ontario
    It is interesting that everyone says TB has the edge on D, yet we've actually given up 3 less goals.
     
  8. X66

    X66 Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2008
    Messages:
    11,008
    Likes Received:
    2,499
    Trophy Points:
    186
    The real narrative should have always been, the Leafs right side is keeping the team from their true potential.

    If our right side could make plays, this teams would be killing it possession wise.
     
  9. CantLoseWithMatthews

    CantLoseWithMatthews Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2015
    Messages:
    32,590
    Likes Received:
    25,156
    Trophy Points:
    141
    I have a feeling Babcock is clashing with Dubas and wants to add a vet RHD
     
    ToMaLe and Macallan18 like this.
  10. KeonHorton

    KeonHorton Registered User

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2013
    Messages:
    7,702
    Likes Received:
    438
    Trophy Points:
    94
    That's most likely a good idea. It makes even more sense given the paucity of defenders available and the returns required to land one that is available. Would ppl here say that Liljegren is dominating this year in the AHL?
     
  11. Stamkos4life

    Stamkos4life Registered User

    Joined:
    Oct 25, 2018
    Messages:
    391
    Likes Received:
    241
    Trophy Points:
    33
    Gender:
    Male
    And yet, according to HF, the jets and bolts are much better teams than us.

    Funny how that works eh?

    But I wouldn't mind if we allowed less shots against.
     
  12. JustAShadow

    JustAShadow Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2015
    Messages:
    5,322
    Likes Received:
    969
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    Toronto
    The OP title is an extreme strawman of a milder concern about the team.

    For those who value advanced stats, the NHL shows the Leafs SAT% standing at 11th best in the league. That's lower than the Leafs' current standings' position. Of course 4 of the teams ahead of the Leafs in SAT% are mediocre NHL teams like Carolina, Montreal, Florida and Philadelphia so I'm not sure what value this measurement actually has.

    I do think I see a high number of high quality scoring chances against Andersen many of which he handles like easy saves. Andersen's rebound control appears to have been superb this season (hence no 2nd and 3rd shots that would lower the team's SAT%/Corsi). The games with Sparks in goal do seem like a very different experience, more frantic.
     
    coupe93 likes this.
  13. Fogelhund

    Fogelhund Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2007
    Messages:
    5,985
    Likes Received:
    1,794
    Trophy Points:
    156
    I'd love to see one of those graphs for each team.. what are they, the heatmaps, for each team... plus, shots on their own... relatively meaningless.... if you surrender 25 shots a game, from non-danger areas, and another 5 shots from a dangerous area, for 30 shots against, while another team surrenders 10 shots from non-danger, and 10 shots from a dangerous area, for 20 shots against... is their 20 shots against, really better than your 30?
     
    Gary Nylund likes this.
  14. Ziggdiezan

    Ziggdiezan Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2015
    Messages:
    5,795
    Likes Received:
    2,121
    Trophy Points:
    111
    The last heat map for shots I saw for the leafs was pretty bad. A ton of clear cut chances from the slot which also fits in with what I have seen.

    This was at least a month ago so may have changed as I haven't seen as many clear cut chances in the slot in recent games.
     
    Pookie and Fogelhund like this.
  15. Ziggdiezan

    Ziggdiezan Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2015
    Messages:
    5,795
    Likes Received:
    2,121
    Trophy Points:
    111
    Often the team with the best performing goalie in the playoffs wins the stanely cup so if the leafs D is as bad as the haters say then Andy must be a God and I'm liking our chances... lol
     
  16. Hide N Seek Champion

    Hide N Seek Champion Registered User Sponsor

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2017
    Messages:
    5,983
    Likes Received:
    1,501
    Trophy Points:
    84
    How many games did Tampa give up goals with a 2 goal lead? Their play is dictated by the score.
    Not to mention their #1 goalie was out for a month.
     
  17. 81Leafs50

    81Leafs50 Registered User

    Joined:
    May 14, 2010
    Messages:
    2,006
    Likes Received:
    314
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    Toronto
    good work sir.
     
  18. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2013
    Messages:
    11,080
    Likes Received:
    2,450
    Trophy Points:
    166
    Interesting that you’d just use shots which have such a low correlation to winning.

    Most teams win games while being outshot. The Leafs and other good teams keep each other company with this well established fact.

    Quality of shot would be an improvement.

    Scoring chance metrics have our Leafs at 5th worst overall in terms of SC Against.

    Tampa is 13. Boston 29.

    I’d say the horse poop is on the cursory denial of what we all see.

    While we may give up shots at a similar level, we give up many more scoring chances.
     
    666 likes this.
  19. ULF_55

    ULF_55 Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2002
    Messages:
    69,462
    Likes Received:
    2,213
    Trophy Points:
    231
    Location:
    Mountain Standard Ti
    Home Page:
    Leafs are a very good offensive team, and defensively as good as Arizona.
     
    Rogie and Pookie like this.
  20. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2013
    Messages:
    11,080
    Likes Received:
    2,450
    Trophy Points:
    166
    True.

    When you learn that we’ve given 122 more scoring chances than Tampa, the edge on D goes back to Tampa and the thank you card goes to Freddy.
     
    Plat87 and 666 like this.
  21. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2013
    Messages:
    11,080
    Likes Received:
    2,450
    Trophy Points:
    166
    I’d like to report this post for being bang on.
     
  22. Notsince67

    Notsince67 Papi and the Lamplighters

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2018
    Messages:
    5,236
    Likes Received:
    2,487
    Trophy Points:
    98
    Gender:
    Male
    That is why I don't think any major defensive moves are in order other than a cap choice of Gardiner or Zaitsev. Both Lili and sandin headed soon to fill build for the future
     
  23. ULF_55

    ULF_55 Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2002
    Messages:
    69,462
    Likes Received:
    2,213
    Trophy Points:
    231
    Location:
    Mountain Standard Ti
    Home Page:
    Well, Domingue has played more than the Lightning starter has.
     
  24. Notsince67

    Notsince67 Papi and the Lamplighters

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2018
    Messages:
    5,236
    Likes Received:
    2,487
    Trophy Points:
    98
    Gender:
    Male
    Shots for:
    Tableau Public
    Shots against
    Tableau Public
     
    Fogelhund likes this.
  25. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2013
    Messages:
    11,080
    Likes Received:
    2,450
    Trophy Points:
    166
    Only the Senators, Ducks, Canucks, and Hawks have given up more Scoring Chances than we have.

    This thread reminds me of this:

    [​IMG]

    There’s a reason we don’t make conclusions based on “super simple analysis.”

    It was a good try but we give up way too many SCA. We rely on Goaltending and SCF to stick with the big dogs.
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice
monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"