Narrative Analysis: Leafs D sucks & goalie saves them

Mess

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This is not a Cup winning Dcore, and will require Freddy to steal games and wins.

Leafs are not built for defense but to outscore their mistakes and breakdowns and have Andersen bail them out of tough situations.
 

Nineteen67

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This is not a Cup winning Dcore, and will require Freddy to steal games and wins.

Leafs are not built for defense but to outscore their mistakes and breakdowns and have Andersen bail them out of tough situations.

Freddy needs to be a lot better than he has been for the Leafs in the playoffs. That Tom Wilson OT goal.....
 

Bluelines

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For there to actually be a quality of system, wouldn’t that assume that each player, each line plays the same system game in, game out? All stages of a game (leading, tied, trailing?).

And if those assumptions held, rating those systems some way... say the left wing lock vs the torpedo.

Seems impossible.

But you can look at quality of shots for and against each player while on the ice.

Does it boil down to a will or skill issue? Do we not play the same way all the time because the people we have are not inclined to do so (will) or is it because the people we have are not skilled enough to play consistently.

To play a Hitchcock system, his system is set up so the weakest link is able to play at a high defensive level, is Babcock's system one that exposes our weakest link or compliments our weakest link? In Hitchcock's system you don't need 6 Hedmen's to have a strong D core, you need 6 d-men to be pulling and pushing all in the same direction.In Babcock's system do you need 6 Rielly's or can you getaway with one?

I've seen teams loaded with players who would be considered average, play at elite levels because the system they play is one that chokes the life out of the other teams (Hitchcock, Ruff, Burns, etc.), they are boring systems to watch but it tends to cover up skill issues.
 

luvdahattymatty

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We're actually tied for 11th in the league when it comes to high danger chances against. Maybe the eye is a bit deceiving when we focus so hard on some of our defensive collapses.
Gramps here. Sorry looked at table someone posted for scoring chances in this thread. It looked to me like we were close to 900 with Ducks and Sens. I tried to count it out and thought we were in bottom 5. Whatever the table says it says maybe it is wrong data I dont know. But I have played and watched hockey in IHL, AHL and NHL for over 60+ years and I know we are the best offensive team in the NHL this season. I played defense many many years ago but some of the things I learned are still true today. I also know we are one of best offensive defensive corps in the NHL. But defensively we are bottom 5 on the defender side of the puck. Watch the games our defenders can't take a heavy forecheck and hold the puck in their skates on the boards while waiting for centre support. Also once we lose the puck our defenders can't remove the opposing player from the puck and take possession back. Those 2 issues are critical for playoff success. They need to be corrected. I have told Shanny this a few weeks ago. He agrees with his old coach. It will be corrected. Some of the stuff we used to do on wall and in front of net are not allowed anymore. Like you dont see a guy getting lifted with stick and removed from the net front which was one of my moves. that was never called ever. You could clear the net for your goalie and dump a guy on the ice. Now if you went for privates and did damage on purpose you got a 2 minute minor. But is was coached like that sometimes early in the game to let opposing teams know that our net was not a safe place to go. But again the game has changed and that all changed in the 1980's.
 

Jack Bauer

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This is not a Cup winning Dcore, and will require Freddy to steal games and wins.

Leafs are not built for defense but to outscore their mistakes and breakdowns and have Andersen bail them out of tough situations.

Sounds like the recipe the last 3 Cup champs all followed.

Not 1 person in this sport would have given Pittsburgh a chance with Hainsey/Dumoulin as a pair and with no Letang for the entire playoffs.

And not 1 person would have said Washington was better after losing Shattenkirk, Alzner, and Schmidt.

There's no such thing as the perfect team any more. Cup winners have flaws all over the lineup now. It's not simply about the best on paper roster or else Stamkos and Hedman would have a few rings already.
 

razkaz

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I suspect if you factor in the QOP and opponent you’ll see that those players and teams create more chances and take advantage of their scoring chances.

If I was evaluating these stats I’d throw out everything in the first few weeks of the season and against the really bad teams.
I'm not the one using SCA and HDSA as proof that the Leafs D is bad. I am simply pointing out how flawed that argument is.

By the way, if you look at just HDSA in the game logs, the 5 highest counts were
1. Hurricanes on 11-21 with 15. High Danger Goals For 1, High Danger Goals Against 2.
2. Wild on 12-01 with 14. HDGF 2, HDGA 2.
3. Canadiens on 10-03 with 12. HDGF 0, HDGA 1.
4. Sharks on 11-15 with 12. HDGF 1, HDGA 2.
5. Red Wings on 12-06 with 10. HDGF 3, HDGA 0.

Would you agree that Hurricanes and Red Wings are "bad" teams and removing those as well as the Canadiens game at the start of the season would actually boost the Leafs HDSA/60?

In retrospect, the 5 lowers HDSA counts were
1. Lightning on 12-16 with 1. HDGF 1, HDGA 0.
2. Panthers on 12-15 with 1. HDGF 2, HDGA 0.
3. Panthers on 12-20 with 2. HDGF 0, HDGA 0.
4. Jets on 10-27 with 2. HDGF 1, HDGA 1.
5. Rangers on 12-22 with 2. HDGF 3, HDGA 2.

Lightning are a pretty good team, as are the Jets. Further, those were almost all recent games showing improvement.
 

razkaz

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Gramps here. Sorry looked at table someone posted for scoring chances in this thread. It looked to me like we were close to 900 with Ducks and Sens. I tried to count it out and thought we were in bottom 5. Whatever the table says it says maybe it is wrong data I dont know. But I have played and watched hockey in IHL, AHL and NHL for over 60+ years and I know we are the best offensive team in the NHL this season. I played defense many many years ago but some of the things I learned are still true today. I also know we are one of best offensive defensive corps in the NHL. But defensively we are bottom 5 on the defender side of the puck. Watch the games our defenders can't take a heavy forecheck and hold the puck in their skates on the boards while waiting for centre support. Also once we lose the puck our defenders can't remove the opposing player from the puck and take possession back. Those 2 issues are critical for playoff success. They need to be corrected. I have told Shanny this a few weeks ago. He agrees with his old coach. It will be corrected. Some of the stuff we used to do on wall and in front of net are not allowed anymore. Like you dont see a guy getting lifted with stick and removed from the net front which was one of my moves. that was never called ever. You could clear the net for your goalie and dump a guy on the ice. Now if you went for privates and did damage on purpose you got a 2 minute minor. But is was coached like that sometimes early in the game to let opposing teams know that our net was not a safe place to go. But again the game has changed and that all changed in the 1980's.
That right there sums up how I've felt with the defense and what is lacking. They have poor D zone breakout and an inability to stop a cycle in their D zone.
 

The90

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I sure wish we'd swap Dermott and Hainsey, and maybe call up Liljegren, before doing anything too rash.
The problem with swapping hainsey and dermott is the third pairing becomes infinitely weaker. I’d swap him in key situations. I know babs likes his veteran presence, but dermott is a calming player and could be a nice fit there
 

Mess

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Freddy needs to be a lot better than he has been for the Leafs in the playoffs. That Tom Wilson OT goal.....

Last year the Leafs gave up an embarrassing 4 goals/game in the playoffs giving up 28 goals in 7 games against the Bruins.

Vegas an expansion team went to the conference finals winning 3 rounds and only giving up 27 goals against to get there.

Leafs didn't do anything to improve their Dcore, but added to the offense in hopes that they can score enough so the defensive mistakes are not their demise.

Freddy needs to get hot come playoff time for Leafs to realistically to go deep in the playoffs.
 
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zeke

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Update:

Shots Against Per Game

5.NSH 28.7
16.BOS 31.3
20.WSH 31.9
21.TBL 32.2
23.TOR 32.7
24.WPG 32.8
26.PIT 33.1

SV%

2.BOS 91.51
3.TOR 91.49
4.WPG 91.43
8.NSH 91.20
9.WSH 91.04
10.PIT 91.03
11.TBL 90.94
 

Marshy

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D upgrade is coming at the TDL (latest) and Hainsey is moving to 3rd pair. I believe that. No way they can let this opportunity to go for it slip away.

First rounder(s) and prospects are heading out the door in February. It's time.
 

thewave

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Jun 17, 2011
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Update:

Shots Against Per Game

5.NSH 28.7
16.BOS 31.3
20.WSH 31.9
21.TBL 32.2
23.TOR 32.7
24.WPG 32.8
26.PIT 33.1

SV%

2.BOS 91.51
3.TOR 91.49
4.WPG 91.43
8.NSH 91.20
9.WSH 91.04
10.PIT 91.03
11.TBL 90.94

Means little. The eye tells you all you need to know...

The leafs are not good enough to beat NSH and TB or WPG and likely not Boston again this year.

The team just isn't rounded enough and lack cohesion defensively. You can point at Smith if you like but it's not just that. When the heat is on these guys get scared. Man up or get the clubs out early.
 

darrylsittler27

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We all know that defense isn't the one they go into the playoffs with. Why wouldn't Dubas wait until TDL to see what the rentals and cost are ? Especially when cap management is so critical now. Besides he inherited Zaitsev which is a part of the problem right now. We can't afford to carry a guy like that at $4.5M.. ouch!
 
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SprDaVE

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There's a big narrative that the only way the Leafs can compete in the playoffs is by trading top end assets for defensive upgrades. I do think there's a need to upgrade their defense quality, which is pretty obvious, I just don't think it's nearly as bad as people make it out to be. The sore spot on defense is definitely Hainsey.

Another big contingency of fans appear to be pushing for a hulking defenseman that plays a physical game when in fact, what the Leafs really need is someone that can not only handle tough competition at a good level but also has a track record of being able to move the puck up to our biggest strength. Hainsey is severely outmatched in this category and Zaitsev is fairly inconsistent there. This is what is hurting us the most, not secondary attributes like hitting, "clearing the net" and all that non sense.

I do think the Leafs want to add a defensive upgrade that can be here past this season. It won't be easy though. If they don't or can't find the right asset for the right price, Babcock has to utilize Dermott in a much bigger prominent role down the stretch. It's already been happening slowly this season and I expect that trend to continue throughout the season. They have to really test Dermotts ability to play tougher matchups and potentially replacing Hainsey as early as this season.
 
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thewave

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There's a big narrative that the only way the Leafs can compete in the playoffs is by trading top end assets for defensive upgrades. I do think there's a need to upgrade their defense quality, I don't think it's nearly as bad as people make it out to be. The sore spot on defense is definitely Hainsey.

Another big contingency of fans appear to be pushing for a hulking defenseman that plays a physical game when in fact, what the Leafs really need is someone that can not only handle tough competition at a good level but also has a track record of being able to move the puck up to our biggest strength. Hainsey is severely outmatched in this category and Zaitsev is fairly inconsistent there. This is what is hurting us the most, not secondary attributes like hitting, "clearing the net" and all that non sense.

I do think the Leafs want to add a defensive upgrade that can be here past this season. It won't be easy though. If they don't, I do think Babcock has to utilize Dermott in a much bigger prominent role down the stretch. It's already been happening slowly this season and I expect that trend to continue throughout the season. They have to really test Dermotts ability to play tough matchups and potentially replacing Hainsey as early as this season.

Asset utilization by Babs is the big problem. He leans on bad players (good pros) at times where it makes little to no sense.

How many here want a player to smack him upside the head after we get a goal and the 4th line is out there. How many want the same when he ends a period with the 4th. How about Hyman or Brown on the ice when we should be stacking the lines
 

Nineteen67

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I'm not the one using SCA and HDSA as proof that the Leafs D is bad. I am simply pointing out how flawed that argument is.

By the way, if you look at just HDSA in the game logs, the 5 highest counts were
1. Hurricanes on 11-21 with 15. High Danger Goals For 1, High Danger Goals Against 2.
2. Wild on 12-01 with 14. HDGF 2, HDGA 2.
3. Canadiens on 10-03 with 12. HDGF 0, HDGA 1.
4. Sharks on 11-15 with 12. HDGF 1, HDGA 2.
5. Red Wings on 12-06 with 10. HDGF 3, HDGA 0.

Would you agree that Hurricanes and Red Wings are "bad" teams and removing those as well as the Canadiens game at the start of the season would actually boost the Leafs HDSA/60?

In retrospect, the 5 lowers HDSA counts were
1. Lightning on 12-16 with 1. HDGF 1, HDGA 0.
2. Panthers on 12-15 with 1. HDGF 2, HDGA 0.
3. Panthers on 12-20 with 2. HDGF 0, HDGA 0.
4. Jets on 10-27 with 2. HDGF 1, HDGA 1.
5. Rangers on 12-22 with 2. HDGF 3, HDGA 2.

Lightning are a pretty good team, as are the Jets. Further, those were almost all recent games showing improvement.

All I’m saying, If I’m management I’m looking at how the team plays against the better competition when it comes to making player/ trade decision

If Tampa had 0 or only 1 High danger goal for then this stat is inaccurate and useless.
 

Pookie

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High Danger shot is not based on the location of the shot attempt but rather the value of the scoring chance.

From Naturalstattrick:
"Each shot attempt (Corsi) taken in the offensive zone is assigned a value based on the area of the zone in which it was recorded. Attempts made from the attacking team's neutral or defensive zones are excluded.
Attempts from the yellow areas are assigned a value of 1, attempts from the red areas are assigned a value of 2, and attempts in the green area are assigned a value of 3.
Add 1 to this value if the attempt is considered a rush shot or a rebound. A rebound is any attempt made within 3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without a stoppage in play in between. A rush shot is any attempt within 4 seconds of any event in the neutral or defensive zone without a stoppage in play in between (originally defined by David Johnson on the now-offline Hockey Analysis, and modified to 4 seconds by War-on-Ice).
Decrease this value by 1 if it was a blocked shot.
Any attempt with a score of 2 or higher is considered a scoring chance."

Based on this knowledge, let's see where Toronto ranks in each type of scoring chance:
Toronto is ranked 8th in the league with 7.52 High Danger Shots Against/60, tied with TBL at number 7
Toronto is ranked 29th in the league with 9.06 Medium Danger Shots Against/60, TBL is 30th with 9.19
Toronto is ranked 29th in the league with 14.38 Low Danger Shots Against/60, TBL is 6th with 11.62
What this means is that Toronto gives up a lot Low Danger Scoring Chances which has a value of 1 or less as well as Medium Danger Scoring Chances which has a value of exactly 2.

If we want to simplify even further, we can look at Scoring Chances Shots Against/60 which only includes Scoring Chances with a value of 2 or more
Toronto is 21st in the league with 16.58 SCSA/60, TBL is 24th with 16.71 SCSA/60.

But wait, there's more!

Toronto is ranked 10th with a 97.72 Low Danger Save%
Toronto is ranked 5th with a 93.84 Medium Danger Save%
Toronto is ranked 19th with a 82.53 High Danger Save%

So Toronto actually has slightly better than average goal tending to bail them out of prime scoring chances against while relying on some superb goal tending in non-prime scoring chances.

All of this to say that I still think there is a need to improve the defense but to say they are a tire fire is kind of misleading. They lack the ability to move the puck cleanly out of the D zone (Rielly is perfecting this with each game) and they have an inability to stop a cycle in their zone..

HDSA are any shots with a value of 3 or more. So taken from the green area automatically qualifies.

Or is my understanding.

If you believe that I’m saying they are a tire fire, my apologies. That is not the intent.

The OP tried to compare us with other contenders. So that’s what I’m doing. Relative to other contenders, we are not necessarily leading the bunch when it comes to SCA.

The picture seems to be one of a great offense and good goaltending making up for a deficiency.
 
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Mess

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When Pietrangelo joins the Leafs in trade things will look a lot better on the backend. :wg:

A Rielly -- Pietrangelo pairing will be able to go against most top lines in the playoffs.
 

Bomber0104

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Not a fan of shot location data at all.

Well I guess I like that it's available for the public but don't like the overreaching conclusions people are making with it.
 

daveleaf

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I keep reading the Leafs team is built around outscoring there mistakes and I would disagree.

The Leafs were built with the premise of the best player on the board and over the last number of years when the Leafs were drafting higher, the best players were forwards and centres. Before this regime, Reily was a top pic.

Let's go back to when Mariner was drafted. If we took the best defender at the time we would have taken Hannifin. Where would we be right now if we made that selection? I'm going out on a limb here and going to say fighting for a playoff spot. We would not be as dynamic offensively and I doubt if Tavares makes the switch here knowing he wouldn't have Mariner next to him. So I disagree this team was built to out score problems, this team was built with the best player on the board.

Another problem I see, is that we see how dynamic the offence is and maybe want that same kind of growth and creativity from the back end. We don't have that same amount of high draft pics back there but I think we are pretty good. I think Reilly has turned into a Norris candidate, Dermot is showing he is second pairing material and maybe with an addition and one of the younger guys on the Marlies making a jump, Zaitsev will be put into a more desirable role.

I really don't think we are that far off but I do believe we are a year away from having a defence that is capable of being a Stanley Cup contending team.
 
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zeke

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Not a fan of shot location data at all.

Well I guess I like that it's available for the public but don't like the overreaching conclusions people are making with it.

just note that the people making overreaching conclusions with it are many of the same people who have dismissed all shottracking data previously.
 
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Pookie

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Does it boil down to a will or skill issue? Do we not play the same way all the time because the people we have are not inclined to do so (will) or is it because the people we have are not skilled enough to play consistently.

To play a Hitchcock system, his system is set up so the weakest link is able to play at a high defensive level, is Babcock's system one that exposes our weakest link or compliments our weakest link? In Hitchcock's system you don't need 6 Hedmen's to have a strong D core, you need 6 d-men to be pulling and pushing all in the same direction.In Babcock's system do you need 6 Rielly's or can you getaway with one?

I've seen teams loaded with players who would be considered average, play at elite levels because the system they play is one that chokes the life out of the other teams (Hitchcock, Ruff, Burns, etc.), they are boring systems to watch but it tends to cover up skill issues.

The idea of a "system" just seems foreign to the way I learned the game and think about it today.

I've had my share of coverage models and breakouts drilled into me. So, totally get their place.

But hockey is so reactionary, particularly on offense, is it possible to actually play and hold to a system all game?

And if you can, do systems not change as a function of the score in the game? Or the line match up you face? Or between games?

Do I want my scoring lines to forecheck as much as my energy line? Do I really expect Matthews and Matt Martin to play the same role?

Is the point of video analysis to simply point out where your own team failed to implement the system? Or is it to analyze opponent's tendencies and weakness in order to devise a game plan that works until they counter it and you've got to start all over?

And how would you rate one system over another? If all 31 teams played exactly the same way... it would be a stat nerd's dream... auto-play mode all season... but it would be hella boring.
 

Pookie

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just note that the people making overreaching conclusions with it are many of the same people who have dismissed all shottracking data previously.

Do you want to pretend that I didn't profess the potential benefit of shot quality over the failings of Corsi... say back in 2016?
 

zeke

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Means little. The eye tells you all you need to know...

The leafs are not good enough to beat NSH and TB or WPG and likely not Boston again this year.

The team just isn't rounded enough and lack cohesion defensively. You can point at Smith if you like but it's not just that. When the heat is on these guys get scared. Man up or get the clubs out early.

4-3-0 vs TB WSH WPG NSH BOS so far.
 

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