Confirmed Trade: [MTL/ARI] Christian Dvorak for 2022 1st round pick and 2024 2nd round pick [Part II]

[Habs Halifax]

They wouldn't have matched that in any case. One year deal with a $6M QO for a player who was worth maybe $2M the day the offer sheet was made was a complete no-starter for matching. There was obviously a plan to keep developing KK into that #2C slot behind Suzuki but the ridiculous offer sheet wasn't worth it, and not so much about "giving up" on KK. I'm not sure what Carolina's plan is with him but it's pretty safe to say he isn't worth his QO today either despite increased production.

Will be interesting to watch what they are forced to give to KK (due to giving him RFA/arbitration leverage) and what Necas asks for. If you give KK $4M, Necas is going to ask for that too.

RFA's to sign for the Canes... KK, Deangelo, Necas.

UFA's to sign or let go: Trocheck, Niederreiter, Cole, Stepan.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Will be interesting to watch what they are forced to give to KK (due to giving him RFA/arbitration leverage) and what Necas asks for. If you give KK $4M, Necas is going to ask for that too.

RFA's to sign for the Canes... KK, Deangelo, Necas.

UFA's to sign or let go: Trocheck, Niederreiter, Cole, Stepan.

DeAngelo and Necas will be the big ones.

Given how the Canes have operated, it's pretty likely that all of those UFAs are gone after this year, unless they agree to sign for cheap, like Stepan did. Cole and Stepan are easily replaceable for cheap should they want too much. Canes may not even offer TBH. Even so, Drury is likely ready to step in and take Stepan's spot.

Trocheck and Nino are going to want to be paid, and rightfully so. Maybe Nino signs a reasonable deal and stays in Carolina, but Trocheck can, and should cash in IMO and I'll be rather surprised if he's a Cane next year. With his injury history, I'm not sure I'd want to give Trocheck a long term, high dollar deal when he'll be 29 years old to start it off. I'm assuming he's gone for sure, and Nino might be as well.

I wasn't a fan of the Kotkaniemi acquisition at the time it occurred. I didn't care so much about losing the pick, as the Canes have had so many picks the last 3 drafts that even if only a % of them pan out, there's not going to be room on the roster. I just though Carolina would have been better off spending money on a scoring winger rather than another C.

The only rationale I see is that if the Canes mgmt knew they weren't going to sign Trocheck next year so they wanted to have Kotkaniemi in the organization for a year to see if he's a viable replacement going forward. If he costs too much, then so be it, they basically paid a "rental" price for him.

 

[Habs Halifax]

DeAngelo and Necas will be the big ones.

Given how the Canes have operated, it's pretty likely that all of those UFAs are gone after this year, unless they agree to sign for cheap, like Stepan did. Cole and Stepan are easily replaceable for cheap should they want too much. Canes may not even offer TBH. Even so, Drury is likely ready to step in and take Stepan's spot.

Trocheck and Nino are going to want to be paid, and rightfully so. Maybe Nino signs a reasonable deal and stays in Carolina, but Trocheck can, and should cash in IMO and I'll be rather surprised if he's a Cane next year. With his injury history, I'm not sure I'd want to give Trocheck a long term, high dollar deal when he'll be 29 years old to start it off. I'm assuming he's gone for sure, and Nino might be as well.

I wasn't a fan of the Kotkaniemi acquisition at the time it occurred. I didn't care so much about losing the pick, as the Canes have had so many picks the last 3 drafts that even if only a % of them pan out, there's not going to be room on the roster. I just though Carolina would have been better off spending money on a scoring winger rather than another C.

The only rationale I see is that if the Canes mgmt knew they weren't going to sign Trocheck next year so they wanted to have Kotkaniemi in the organization for a year to see if he's a viable replacement going forward. If he costs too much, then so be it, they basically paid a "rental" price for him.

I'm curious on how it all plays out. Probably a good move if you try to extend Necas before KK. But will Necas/Agent play nice? Probably not and they wait to see what KK gets. Or not. We will see

I'm assuming you try to retain Trochek?

 

[Unsustainable]

I might be on the fringe minority of Canes fans that thinks that Necas might be moved out. KK is the Trocheck replacement. Drury is likely ready, Suzuki and Rees are longer shots at this time I think.

TDA is the most curious case of what he will get. Does he stay with the team that took a chance on him, and a coach he respects means losing out on 5 or so million in pay over the life of a contract?

 

[Hostile Offer]

He's in a good situation and unlike Bergevin, Carolina won't be a penny pinching cheap ass. He's allowed to sign extension that is less than 6.1 million per year.

Getting former 3rd overall for a late 1st is definitely a home run. He might be UFA but Montréal can't control his destiny anymore. Also, he's not a super star who will trigger a bidding war. His career is back on track in Carolina, why would he risk it, as long as Hurricanes come up with a respectable offer.

That offersheet was a joke. If you're trying to poach a star, don't offer an underpayment. Every move in this saga was a wrong one, that's what I call an utter embarrasment.

When he's extended, it's worth a lot more than late 1st. This isn't 2014, being a career under 40 point producer is a definition of 3C. Just because he's been awarded the opportunity to play top-6 in an awful laughing stock doesn't make him genuine top-6 center. He's paid less than KK for one year. And he should be paid less for his zero ceiling plug hockey. If we don't compare his salary to KK's one year salary, he's actually overpaid by a lot. I do mind wasting KK into an expensive plug.

A lot of weird flexes in this post:

1) Carolina may not be a penny pinching cheap ass but they, just like the Habs, have this thing called salary cap. I don't know if you've heard of it.

2) Since he's a former 3rd overall who had way more value than a late 1st even before getting his career back on track and with extension will be worth even more, wouldn't there be a bidding war if he decides to UFA? That sounds like a hell of a sexy asset to me.

3) If what MB offered Aho would've been an underpayment, he wouldn't have signed it. Miscalculation? Sure. Underpayment? No.

4) By definition there were 186 top six forwards in the NHL before Seattle joined in (31 teams, 6 top six forwards each). In the last two years, Dvorak in the last two years ranks 113th in points and 167th in PPG in the league, both within the definition of a top six forward. Lower end, definitely, but that's why I said his production suggested he's a 2nd liner. Before comparing KK's new deal which through your crystal ball will be amazing and desired by every team in the league, we should probably compare what's actually happening: even in a situation where Dvorak has completely failed against expectations while KK has progressed, their respective PPGs are actually identical. If Dvorak is an expensive plug this year, so is KK. Will that trend continue in the future? I don't know, but it looks like you do.

Stop painting a picture where everything regarding KK turns to gold while everything the Habs do has been a miserable failure, because that's not the case.

 

[Hoochi Papa]

A lot of weird flexes in this post:

1) Carolina may not be a penny pinching cheap ass but they, just like the Habs, have this thing called salary cap. I don't know if you've heard of it.

2) Since he's a former 3rd overall who had way more value than a late 1st even before getting his career back on track and with extension will be worth even more, wouldn't there be a bidding war if he decides to UFA? That sounds like a hell of a sexy asset to me.

3) If what MB offered Aho would've been an underpayment, he wouldn't have signed it. Miscalculation? Sure. Underpayment? No.

4) By definition there were 186 top six forwards in the NHL before Seattle joined in (31 teams, 6 top six forwards each). In the last two years, Dvorak in the last two years ranks 113th in points and 167th in PPG in the league, both within the definition of a top six forward. Lower end, definitely, but that's why I said his production suggested he's a 2nd liner. Before comparing KK's new deal which through your crystal ball will be amazing and desired by every team in the league, we should probably compare what's actually happening: even in a situation where Dvorak has completely failed against expectations while KK has progressed, their respective PPGs are actually identical. If Dvorak is an expensive plug this year, so is KK. Will that trend continue in the future? I don't know, but it looks like you do.

Stop painting a picture where everything regarding KK turns to gold while everything the Habs do has been a miserable failure, because that's not the case.

1. Yes. And?

2. Because he's not a super star who starts a bidding war. That was answered before you even asked it. He likes where he is and won't be lowballed Montréal style.

3. It was an underpayment because it was easy to match and good enough for short term to reach UFA as soon as possible. If you're planning to poach someone, make sure your offer isn't matched while the other organisation laughs at you.

4. Because someone plays top-6 in Montréal or Arizona doesn't mean he's a true top-6 forward. That position is given, not earned. He's in a position that he doesn't deserve, as we have seen in Montréal. Did you consider Dale Weise top-6 forward during Therrien's regime, because he was given the top-6 duty?

KK's and Dvorak's PPG are similar, although KK does it in less minutes on fourth line being a positive addition to his team while Dvorak is an utter second line failure, look beneath the numbers.

Kotkaniemi is in a better situation while everything Habs has done regarding this case has been a failure, what else should I say?

 

[Chrispy]

In order to go to arbitration, he'll first have to be QO'd. If KK feels he won't be getting as much from arbitration, which would be likely, then there's no reason for him to just not take his QO and keep being paid $6M.

The deadline for team-selected arbitration is before the QO deadline. So Carolina would still be locking in a minimum, but they could submit below the 6M QO. The risk is Carolina cannot walk away from team-elected arbitration to my knowledge.

Last season, teams had to elect for team-selected arbitration by mid-July (24 hours after the Cup final), but qualifying offers were not due until July 26.

 

[Gaud]

No. What difference was this loser going to make?

the difference of not having a C line of Suzuki, Paquette, Poehling, Evants, etc

 

[frederixx]

the difference of not having a C line of Suzuki, Paquette, Poehling, Evants, etc

Kotkaniemi and Dvorak have the same pace this year. You really think the Canadiens are sinking cause of him? In fact, it's probably the best scenario for them as they were going no where anytime soon. Price and Weber were probably the only reason why they were still respectables.

They can sell all they want and get tons of picks, if they keep guys like Lapointe as their head scout, they will still draft guys like Kotkaniemi, Galchenyuk, Fischer, etc.. No Lecavalier, Bobrov or any other hometown boys will change that. They need to get the best scouts out there ASAP.

 

[Burke the Legend]

KK has all the leverage here, it will be a tough situation for the the Canes. Either they qualify him or give him a very nice extension he would be foolish to refuse (like 4-5 years, 20$ million). Otherwise he goes UFA and can negotiate that new contract with 32 teams instead of just the Canes which is a win for him.

The whole premise for the original offersheet had to be more than just petty revenge (since it's also a self inflicted wound if so). Canes front office claimed they were very high on his potential and had been trying to acquire him already - fine. Montreal 100% could have matched btw if they saw the same thing, and having known him quite well for 4 years the Habs front office in the end declined, not thinking him worth the risk of having become a very expensive project.

Do the Canes still believe in him as an expensive project? I guess we'll have find out in the next 6 months if they QO him at 6$ million or give him a big extension which will carry opportunity costs of losing other players. They will have a lot of consider after whatever happens in playoffs whether it's failure or success since they're coming in as a top seed.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm curious on how it all plays out. Probably a good move if you try to extend Necas before KK. But will Necas/Agent play nice? Probably not and they wait to see what KK gets. Or not. We will see

I'm assuming you try to retain Trochek?

I don't think so. I think they'd like to keep him, but as we've seen with countless players over the past 2-3 years (Hamilton as an example), Canes aren't going to pay top dollar for anyone who isn't a core piece. Trocheck will be 29, has an injury history and some team is going to give him a high dollar, long term deal and the Canes won't want to do that.

I could be wrong, but I think he likely is elsewhere next year.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't think so. I think they'd like to keep him, but as we've seen with countless players over the past 2-3 years (Hamilton as an example), Canes aren't going to pay top dollar for anyone who isn't a core piece. Trocheck will be 29, has an injury history and some team is going to give him a high dollar, long term deal and the Canes won't want to do that.

I could be wrong, but I think he likely is elsewhere next year.

Depends on if Trocheck will want to stay with the contender. I'm sure he get more with a non playoff team with cap space so all the power to him if money is what he is after. But I think he gets similar treatment with a lot of other teams. Not sure what Term/AAV he ends up with but the flat cap is still going to be a factor for players like this.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

KK has all the leverage here, it will be a tough situation for the the Canes. Either they qualify him or give him a very nice extension he would be foolish to refuse (like 4-5 years, 20$ million). Otherwise he goes UFA and can negotiate that new contract with 32 teams instead of just the Canes which is a win for him.

I get what you are saying, but it's not really that tough of a situation for Carolina. My understanding is there are 4 options:

1) sign him to a deal both parties are comfortable with
2) Choose Team elected arbitration (which from the post above, can be done BEFORE the QO is required)
3) Give him the QO at high dollar amount.
4) Let him walk. If he's not worth his contract demands, you let him walk and you essentially paid a trade deadline rental price for a player that you got to use all year.

HF focuses a lot on picks/prospects, but Canes giving up a late 1st in this draft for 1 year of Kotkaniemi isn't such a big deal that you give a bad contract just to justify that move. Nor is it consistent with how they operate. Canes have a very good, young team, have 1 of the better prospects pools in the NHL. Have had 33 draft selections in the last 3 drafts, and still have 8 picks in this coming draft (Car 2nd, Chi 3rd, Car 4th, Car 5th Car+ANA 6th, CAR+CLB 7th.

Losing those picks isn't a big enough deal to warrant making the wrong move going forward

 

[That Habs Fan]

Can't believe this thread is 37 pages long...that's 4 more pages than Dvorak has played games for the Habs this year

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Depends on if Trocheck will want to stay with the contender. I'm sure he get more with a non playoff team with cap space so all the power to him if money is what he is after. But I think he gets similar treatment with a lot of other teams. Not sure what Term/AAV he ends up with but the flat cap is still going to be a factor for players like this.

Well, if how they handled Faulk, Hamilton, Nedeljkovic, Foegele, Bean, etc...I'm skeptical that the Canes will make a competitive offer to Trocheck given his age. We shall see. I'd love to keep him for the right price/term. Just expecting otherwise.

 

[Hostile Offer]

1. Yes. And?

And you can't retain every player at whatever price you like.

4. Because someone plays top-6 in Montréal or Arizona doesn't mean he's a true top-6 forward. That position is given, not earned. He's in a position that he doesn't deserve, as we have seen in Montréal. Did you consider Dale Weise top-6 forward during Therrien's regime, because he was given the top-6 duty?

Dale Weise never produced at a top six rate. So no.

KK's and Dvorak's PPG are similar, although KK does it in less minutes on fourth line being a positive addition to his team while Dvorak is an utter second line failure, look beneath the numbers.

Should also be noted that KK is playing for a team where everything has gone right this year while Dvorak is playing for a team where everything has gone wrong. Everyone is having a good year in Carolina. NOBODY is having a good year in Montreal.

Kotkaniemi is in a better situation while everything Habs has done regarding this case has been a failure, what else should I say?

Kotkaniemi really is the big winner here. But the Habs made the right decision letting him go at that ridiculous $6M cost. We can probably both agree he does better now in Carolina than he'd do on this disaster Habs team, and you wouldn't be screaming how he's worth way more than a 1st. What were the options there, really?

 

[Gaud]

Kotkaniemi and Dvorak have the same pace this year. You really think the Canadiens are sinking cause of him? In fact, it's probably the best scenario for them as they were going no where anytime soon. Price and Weber were probably the only reason why they were still respectables.

They can sell all they want and get tons of picks, if they keep guys like Lapointe as their head scout, they will still draft guys like Kotkaniemi, Galchenyuk, Fischer, etc.. No Lecavalier, Bobrov or any other hometown boys will change that. They need to get the best scouts out there ASAP.

I dont think much of Dvorak at all, whether as a part of our future or as a replacement for KK. The original question i was responding to had to do with why Mtl thought they would need Dvorak at all, to which i answered "They lost Danault and KK in a short time" and then the ensuing question was "what diff does Dvorak make", to which i answered that he prevented us from having a center line with Suzuki, Poehling, Paquette, Perrault, etc.

agree with you on Price being the reason they were respectable; his passing abilities enable him to start the transition much faster than having the D skate to behind the net to get the puck. This allowed MB to focus on acquiring slower moving Defensemen that are bigger. It is clear how the team was built around him, and now we see how it looks without him.

 

[Burke the Legend]

I get what you are saying, but it's not really that tough of a situation for Carolina. My understanding is there are 4 options:

1) sign him to a deal both parties are comfortable with
2) Choose Team elected arbitration (which from the post above, can be done BEFORE the QO is required)
3) Give him the QO at high dollar amount.
4) Let him walk. If he's not worth his contract demands, you let him walk and you essentially paid a trade deadline rental price for a player that you got to use all year.

HF focuses a lot on picks/prospects, but Canes giving up a late 1st in this draft for 1 year of Kotkaniemi isn't such a big deal that you give a bad contract just to justify that move. Nor is it consistent with how they operate. Canes have a very good, young team, have 1 of the better prospects pools in the NHL. Have had 33 draft selections in the last 3 drafts, and still have 8 picks in this coming draft (Car 2nd, Chi 3rd, Car 4th, Car 5th Car+ANA 6th, CAR+CLB 7th.

Losing those picks isn't a big enough deal to warrant making the wrong move going forward

i didn’t realize he was eligible for team elected arbitration before QO deadline. If so that strengthens Carolina’s hand by quite a bit.
It would be a bit unprecedented for an arbiter to lower a contract from 6 to 4 but this is a strange situation

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

i didn’t realize he was eligible for team elected arbitration before QO deadline. If so that strengthens Carolina’s hand by quite a bit.

Well, don't quote me. I was just going off a post that stated that a few back.

EDIT: Capfriendly says he's eligible for team elected arbitration.

hurricanes

 

[Chrispy]

i didn’t realize he was eligible for team elected arbitration before QO deadline. If so that strengthens Carolina’s hand by quite a bit.
It would be a bit unprecedented for an arbiter to lower a contract from 6 to 4 but this is a strange situation

I don't think Carolina can go as low as 4. 85% is the lowest that arbitration can award, so Carolina could argue for $5.1M as an offer and try to get another $900K in cap space if they wished.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Can't believe this thread is 37 pages long...that's 4 more pages than Dvorak has played games for the Habs this year

Dvorak's barely even being mentioned anymore, unless it's to compare him to Kotkaniemi.

 

[KrazyKings]

Was this pick protected at all?

 

[Chrispy]

Was this pick protected at all?

Better of Montreal or Carolina's 1st with a top 10 protection.

If the better pick is in the top 10, Arizona gets the lower of the 2 picks (even if both are top 10.)

So it appears Arizona is getting Carolina's late 1st.

 

[ottawa]

Dvorak's barely even being mentioned anymore, unless it's to compare him to Kotkaniemi.

I wonder what fanbase is responsible for that.

This habs fan is happy with Dvorak, I love him. I'm happy KK is doing well with Carolina, maybe you guys can discuss him on your forum instead.

 

[Coachcorner]

Dvorak's barely even being mentioned anymore, unless it's to compare him to Kotkaniemi.

Dvorak has been solid in those games he played sire. With the canadiens too. He's like a robocop. Never smiles, never and really gets the job done. Hard.